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This paper aims to analyze the socioeconomic impacts of infectious diseases based on uncertain behaviors of social and effective subsystems in the countries. The economic impacts of infectious diseases in comparison with predicted gross domestic product (GDP) in future years could be beneficial for this aim along with predicted social impacts of infectious diseases in countries.

The proposed uncertain SEIAR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, asymptomatic and removed) model evaluates the impacts of variables on different trends using scenario base analysis. This model considers different subsystems including healthcare systems, transportation, contacts and capacities of food and pharmaceutical networks for sensitivity analysis. Besides, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is designed to predict the GDP of countries and determine the economic impacts of infectious diseases. These proposed models can predict the future socioeconomic trends of infectious diseases in each country based on the available information to guide the decisions of government planners and policymakers.

The proposed uncertain SEIAR model predicts social impacts according to uncertain parameters and different coefficients appropriate to the scenarios. It analyzes the sensitivity and the effects of various parameters. A case study is designed in this paper about COVID-19 in a country. Its results show that the effect of transportation on COVID-19 is most sensitive and the contacts have a significant effect on infection. Besides, the future annual costs of COVID-19 are evaluated in different situations. Private transportation, contact behaviors and public transportation have significant impacts on infection, especially in the determined case study, due to its circumstance. Therefore, it is necessary to consider changes in society using flexible behaviors and laws based on the latest status in facing the COVID-19 epidemic.

The proposed methods can be applied to conduct infectious diseases impacts analysis.

In this paper, a proposed uncertain SEIAR system dynamics model, related sensitivity analysis and ANFIS model are utilized to support different programs regarding policymaking and economic issues to face infectious diseases. The results could support the analysis of sensitivities, policies and economic activities.

• A new system dynamics model is proposed in this paper based on an uncertain SEIAR model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Asymptomatic, and Removed) to model population behaviors;

• Different subsystems including healthcare systems, transportation, contacts, and capacities of food and pharmaceutical networks are defined in the proposed system dynamics model to find related sensitivities;

• Different scenarios are analyzed using the proposed system dynamics model to predict the effects of policies and related costs. The results guide lawmakers and governments' actions for future years;

• An adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is designed to estimate the gross domestic product (GDP) in future years and analyze effects of COVID-19 based on them;

• A real case study is considered to evaluate the performances of the proposed models.

A new system dynamics model is proposed in this paper based on an uncertain SEIAR model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Asymptomatic, and Removed) to model population behaviors;

Different subsystems including healthcare systems, transportation, contacts, and capacities of food and pharmaceutical networks are defined in the proposed system dynamics model to find related sensitivities;

Different scenarios are analyzed using the proposed system dynamics model to predict the effects of policies and related costs. The results guide lawmakers and governments' actions for future years;

An adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is designed to estimate the gross domestic product (GDP) in future years and analyze effects of COVID-19 based on them;

A real case study is considered to evaluate the performances of the proposed models.

There is no doubt that global climate change poses a threat to human health in a number of ways. Globally, 23% of all deaths in 2012 were attributed to the environment and an additional 250,000 potential deaths per year from 2030 to 2050 due to the effects of climate change. Heat waves, storms, droughts and floods pose an immediate risk of infectious diseases in humans. Temperature affects the survival rates of pathogens. Some populations and some areas are more vulnerable to infectious diseases due to their lack of ability to respond effectively to the stresses of high temperatures. Excessive rainfall could cause sewage to overflow and promote the onset and spread of infectious diseases ranging in severity from mild gastroenteritis to life-threatening illnesses such as cholera, dysentery and other diseases. Infectious diseases are a category of health problems that are particularly affected by climate change. Infections that occur are air-borne, water-borne and zoonotic. They are affected by the increase of the temperature, but also by the increase of the viral load in the water due to changes in the rainfall. Transmission can also take place through the migration of environmental refugees. Such an important topic could be the subject for students learning English. The purpose of this study will be to highlight the association of climate change with infectious-communicable diseases in order to take action and to create the structure by which students could learn English by studying these definitions.

Purpose – To analyze the concept of emerging infectious diseases, departing from the accepted definitions adopted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC, USA) and the now classical definition suggested by Grmek (1993, 1995). The emphasis of this chapter is on the roles that socio-economic and cultural changes play on the emergence of diseases.

Methodology – Bibliographical research.

Findings – Current definitions fail to address all instances of the emergence of disease. In order to illustrate the concept of emergence, we discuss two case studies. The first describes the constitution of abdominal angiostrongyliasis in Costa Rica. The second concerns an outbreak of Chagas disease that took place in 2005 in the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil.

Contribution – As a result of our analyses we propose a new classification of instances of emergence and emphasize the importance of an interdisciplinary approach for the understanding of diseases.

The years 2011, 2012, and 2013 witnessed both significant developments and setbacks in global polio eradication efforts. On the positive side, January 13, 2012, marked a full year since India had detected a case of wild poliovirus. On the negative side, polio continued to be endemic in three countries-Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Nigeria-and in those countries the goal of eliminating polio seemed more challenging than ever. Between December 2012 and January 2013, sixteen polio workers were killed in Pakistan, and in February 2013, nine women vaccinating children against polio in Kano, Nigeria, were shot dead by gunmen suspected of belonging to a radical Islamist sect. In addition, after a 95 percent decline in polio cases in 2010, the number of cases in Nigeria rebounded in 2011. Recognizing that polio was unlikely to be eliminated in these countries in the near term, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative moved its target date for eradication from 2013 to 2018.

These setbacks sparked a debate about the appropriate strategy for global eradication of polio. Indeed, some experts believed that recent setbacks were not caused by poor management but were instead the result of epidemiological characteristics and preconditions that might render polio eradication unachievable. These experts argued that global health efforts should focus on the control or elimination of polio rather than on the eradication of the disease.

This case presents an overview of polio and the Global Polio Eradication Initiative and recounts the successful effort to eradicate smallpox. The case enables a rich discussion of the current global strategy to eradicate polio, as well as the issue of whether eradication is the appropriate global public health objective. More generally, the case provides a concrete example of a particular type of global public good, namely infectious disease eradication.

After analyzing and discussing the case, students will be able to:

• Understand the nature of a global public good

• Perform a back-of-the-envelope benefit-cost analysis of polio eradication

• Discuss the appropriate strategy for eradicating an infectious disease

• Apply game theory to analyzing which countries would be likely to contribute funds toward global polio eradication

• Discuss the role of private organizations in the provision of global public goods

Understand the nature of a global public good

Perform a back-of-the-envelope benefit-cost analysis of polio eradication

Discuss the appropriate strategy for eradicating an infectious disease

Apply game theory to analyzing which countries would be likely to contribute funds toward global polio eradication

Discuss the role of private organizations in the provision of global public goods

The 2003 global outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) was an abrupt reminder that infectious diseases pose a continuing threat to human health. In 1967, U.S. Surgeon General William H. Stewart declared “it was time to close the book on infectious diseases” (Garrett, 1994, citing W.H. Stewart, “A Mandate for State Action,” presented at the Association of State and Territorial Health Officers, Washington, DC, December 4, 1967). In the latter half of the twentieth century, many shared this bold view that medical science had vanquished infectious disease. As a result, public health struggled to remain relevant in the face of advances in pharmaceuticals, surgery, genetics and other areas that were becoming increasingly dominant in the quest to extend and enhance human life. SARS forced many to rethink the significance of public health and the crisis, though relatively short-lived, (for commentary on the disparities between the responses to HIV and SARS, see e.g. Altman (2003)) underscored the need to rebuild public health capacity that had been allowed to slip down the health system priority list.

Over the last decades, there has been an increasing interest among scientists on the linkage between population health and climate and environmental factors, as well as health impacts of climate change and climate variability. Numerous studies have been done and substantial results achieved, but mostly in the developed countries, and not much quantitative evidence or assessment of the impacts at national and local levels has been provided for developing countries.

This study explored whether the critical incident management systems (CIMS) model can predict the EMS performance in the COVID-19 context. Past research has established the significance of early detection and response (ER) in the context of Ebola virus disease (EVD), prompting a question of whether the model can also be helpful in the COVID-19 context. Consequently, the authors assessed whether ER influences the impact of communication capacity (CC), reliable information channel (RC) and environment (EN) on COVID-19 EMS performance. Assessing these relationships will advance emerging infectious disease (EID) preparedness.

The authors employed standardized measurement instruments of the CIMS model (CC, ER, RC and EN) to predict the performance of COVID-19 EMS using structural equation modeling (SEM) in a study of 313 participants from frontline responders.

The results show that the relationship of ER and EN with COVID-19 EMS performance is positive, while that of EN on CC is negative. The relationship between EN and COVID-19 EMS performance was insignificant. Contrary to the hypothesis, CC was negatively significant to COVID-19 EMS performance due to poor communication capacities.

The authors acknowledge some limitations due to challenges faced in this study. First, Data collection was a significant limitation as these questionnaires were built and distributed in June 2020, but the response time was prolonged due to the recurring nature of the pandemic. The authors had wanted to implore the inputs of all stakeholders, and efforts were made to reach out to various Ministry of Health, the local CDC and related agencies in the region via repeated emails explaining the purpose of the study to no avail. The study finally used the frontline workers as the respondents. The authors used international students from various countries as the representatives to reach out to their countries' frontline workers. Second, since the study was only partially supported using the CIMS model, future studies may combine the CIMS model with other models or theories. Subsequent research reassesses this outcome in other contexts or regions. Consequently, further research can explore how CC can be improved with COVID-19 and another future EID in the region. This may improve the COVID-19 EMS performance, thereby expanding the lesson learned from the pandemic and sustaining public health EID response. Additionally, other authors may combine the CIMS model with other emergency management models or theories to establish a fully supported theoretical model in the context of COVID-19.

The findings have practical implications for incident managers, local CDCs, governments, international organizations and scholars. The outcome of the study might inform these stakeholders on future direction and contribution to EID preparedness. This study unfolds the impact of lessons learned in the region demonstrated by moderating early detection and responses with other constructs to achieve COVID-19 EMS performance. The findings reveal that countries that experienced the 2013–2016 Ebola outbreak, were not necessarily more prepared for an epidemic or pandemic, judging by the negative moderating impact of early detection and response. However, these experiences provide a foundation for the fight against COVID-19. There is a need for localized plans tailored to each country's situation, resources, culture and lifestyle. The localized plan will be to mitigate and prevent an unsustainable EID management system, post-epidemic fund withdrawals and governance. This plan might be more adaptable and sustainable for the local health system when international interventions are withdrawn after an epidemic. Public health EID plans must be adapted to each country's unique situation to ensure sustainability and constantly improve EID management of epidemics and pandemics in emergency response. The high to moderate importation risk in African countries shows Africa's largest window of vulnerability to be West Africa (Gilbert et al., 2020). Therefore, they should be in the spotlight for heightened assistance towards the preparedness and response for a future pandemic like COVID-19. The West African region has a low capacity to manage the health emergency to match the population capacities. The COVID-19 outbreak in West Africa undoubtedly inflicted many disruptions in most countries' economic, social and environmental circumstances. The region's unique challenges observed in this study with CC and reliable information channels as being negatively significant highlight the poor maintenance culture and weak institutions due to brain drain and inadequate training and monitoring. This outcome practically informs West African stakeholders and governments on aspects to indulge when trying to improve emergency preparedness as the outcomes from other regions might not be applicable.

This study explored the relevance of the CIMS model in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, revealing different patterns of influence on COVID-19 EMS performance. In contrast to the extant literature on EVD, the authors found the moderating effects of ER in the COVID-19 context. Thus, the authors contribute to the COVID-19 EMS performance domain by developing a context-driven EMS model. The authors discuss the theoretical and practical implications.

The aim of this study was to develop a smart wearable mask designed for the prevention of respiratory infectious diseases by understanding consumer's preferences in designs and functions of the smart wearable masks.

To develop a smart mask design, a survey was conducted on Chinese consumers in their 20–40s and analyzed their mask wearing behaviors, preferences and caring aspects of masks. The collected data were analyzed to identify the demographic characteristics of the subjects surveyed by using the SPSS program, and technical statistical analysis was conducted. To identify differences in demographic characteristics, an independent samples t-test, one-way analysis of variance and Scheffe's ad hoc test were conducted.

Based on the research results, design guidelines for wearable masks were defined, and four wearable mask designs were developed and presented in 2D and 3D images based on the design guidelines. There were significant differences among people with different backgrounds.

It is significant that this research presents smart wearable mask design guidelines and designs through supplementation and improvement of existing mask. It is expected that this research provides basic empirical data for mask designs through the planning of smart wearable mask designs and surveys assessing consumer perceptions, attitudes and satisfaction.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the introduction of school medical inspection (SMI) in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo (Brazil) during the 1910s, in a process aligned with the international debate that, since the late nineteenth century, sustained the need of services that focused on the sanitary inspection of schools and their students. It analyzes the purposes guiding the creation of these services and their connections to the spheres of public health and education, highlighting the role taken by the concerns about issues such as the control of infectious diseases, particularly tuberculosis.

The study consists of a historical analysis using as sources the legislation and documents produced by the SMI. The documents are examined in correlation with the positions defended at international conferences held at the period.

The study evidences the intricacies of the introduction of SMI services in the Brazilian states that were pioneers in this area. It examines their relations to guidelines established in international forums, which certainly played an important role in the Brazilian efforts. It also allowed to highlight the relations between efforts to create medical inspections in school and those aiming at fighting infectious diseases.

The paper contributes to a better comprehension of the efforts regarding social hygiene and particularly the hygiene of schools and their students in a period in which the state takes greater responsibilities for its population.