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Article
Publication date: 13 January 2022

Zeinab Rahimi Rise and Mohammad Mahdi Ershadi

This paper aims to analyze the socioeconomic impacts of infectious diseases based on uncertain behaviors of social and effective subsystems in the countries. The economic…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to analyze the socioeconomic impacts of infectious diseases based on uncertain behaviors of social and effective subsystems in the countries. The economic impacts of infectious diseases in comparison with predicted gross domestic product (GDP) in future years could be beneficial for this aim along with predicted social impacts of infectious diseases in countries.

Design/methodology/approach

The proposed uncertain SEIAR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, asymptomatic and removed) model evaluates the impacts of variables on different trends using scenario base analysis. This model considers different subsystems including healthcare systems, transportation, contacts and capacities of food and pharmaceutical networks for sensitivity analysis. Besides, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is designed to predict the GDP of countries and determine the economic impacts of infectious diseases. These proposed models can predict the future socioeconomic trends of infectious diseases in each country based on the available information to guide the decisions of government planners and policymakers.

Findings

The proposed uncertain SEIAR model predicts social impacts according to uncertain parameters and different coefficients appropriate to the scenarios. It analyzes the sensitivity and the effects of various parameters. A case study is designed in this paper about COVID-19 in a country. Its results show that the effect of transportation on COVID-19 is most sensitive and the contacts have a significant effect on infection. Besides, the future annual costs of COVID-19 are evaluated in different situations. Private transportation, contact behaviors and public transportation have significant impacts on infection, especially in the determined case study, due to its circumstance. Therefore, it is necessary to consider changes in society using flexible behaviors and laws based on the latest status in facing the COVID-19 epidemic.

Practical implications

The proposed methods can be applied to conduct infectious diseases impacts analysis.

Originality/value

In this paper, a proposed uncertain SEIAR system dynamics model, related sensitivity analysis and ANFIS model are utilized to support different programs regarding policymaking and economic issues to face infectious diseases. The results could support the analysis of sensitivities, policies and economic activities.

Highlights:

  • A new system dynamics model is proposed in this paper based on an uncertain SEIAR model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Asymptomatic, and Removed) to model population behaviors;

  • Different subsystems including healthcare systems, transportation, contacts, and capacities of food and pharmaceutical networks are defined in the proposed system dynamics model to find related sensitivities;

  • Different scenarios are analyzed using the proposed system dynamics model to predict the effects of policies and related costs. The results guide lawmakers and governments' actions for future years;

  • An adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is designed to estimate the gross domestic product (GDP) in future years and analyze effects of COVID-19 based on them;

  • A real case study is considered to evaluate the performances of the proposed models.

A new system dynamics model is proposed in this paper based on an uncertain SEIAR model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Asymptomatic, and Removed) to model population behaviors;

Different subsystems including healthcare systems, transportation, contacts, and capacities of food and pharmaceutical networks are defined in the proposed system dynamics model to find related sensitivities;

Different scenarios are analyzed using the proposed system dynamics model to predict the effects of policies and related costs. The results guide lawmakers and governments' actions for future years;

An adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is designed to estimate the gross domestic product (GDP) in future years and analyze effects of COVID-19 based on them;

A real case study is considered to evaluate the performances of the proposed models.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 21 April 2010

Márcia Grisotti and Fernando Dias de Avila-Pires

Purpose – To analyze the concept of emerging infectious diseases, departing from the accepted definitions adopted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC…

Abstract

Purpose – To analyze the concept of emerging infectious diseases, departing from the accepted definitions adopted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC, USA) and the now classical definition suggested by Grmek (1993, 1995). The emphasis of this chapter is on the roles that socio-economic and cultural changes play on the emergence of diseases.

Methodology – Bibliographical research.

Findings – Current definitions fail to address all instances of the emergence of disease. In order to illustrate the concept of emergence, we discuss two case studies. The first describes the constitution of abdominal angiostrongyliasis in Costa Rica. The second concerns an outbreak of Chagas disease that took place in 2005 in the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil.

Contribution – As a result of our analyses we propose a new classification of instances of emergence and emphasize the importance of an interdisciplinary approach for the understanding of diseases.

Details

Understanding Emerging Epidemics: Social and Political Approaches
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84855-080-3

Case study
Publication date: 20 January 2017

David Besanko, Sarah Gillis and Sisi Shen

The years 2011, 2012, and 2013 witnessed both significant developments and setbacks in global polio eradication efforts. On the positive side, January 13, 2012, marked a…

Abstract

The years 2011, 2012, and 2013 witnessed both significant developments and setbacks in global polio eradication efforts. On the positive side, January 13, 2012, marked a full year since India had detected a case of wild poliovirus. On the negative side, polio continued to be endemic in three countries-Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Nigeria-and in those countries the goal of eliminating polio seemed more challenging than ever. Between December 2012 and January 2013, sixteen polio workers were killed in Pakistan, and in February 2013, nine women vaccinating children against polio in Kano, Nigeria, were shot dead by gunmen suspected of belonging to a radical Islamist sect. In addition, after a 95 percent decline in polio cases in 2010, the number of cases in Nigeria rebounded in 2011. Recognizing that polio was unlikely to be eliminated in these countries in the near term, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative moved its target date for eradication from 2013 to 2018.

These setbacks sparked a debate about the appropriate strategy for global eradication of polio. Indeed, some experts believed that recent setbacks were not caused by poor management but were instead the result of epidemiological characteristics and preconditions that might render polio eradication unachievable. These experts argued that global health efforts should focus on the control or elimination of polio rather than on the eradication of the disease.

This case presents an overview of polio and the Global Polio Eradication Initiative and recounts the successful effort to eradicate smallpox. The case enables a rich discussion of the current global strategy to eradicate polio, as well as the issue of whether eradication is the appropriate global public health objective. More generally, the case provides a concrete example of a particular type of global public good, namely infectious disease eradication.

After analyzing and discussing the case, students will be able to:

  • Understand the nature of a global public good

  • Perform a back-of-the-envelope benefit-cost analysis of polio eradication

  • Discuss the appropriate strategy for eradicating an infectious disease

  • Apply game theory to analyzing which countries would be likely to contribute funds toward global polio eradication

  • Discuss the role of private organizations in the provision of global public goods

Understand the nature of a global public good

Perform a back-of-the-envelope benefit-cost analysis of polio eradication

Discuss the appropriate strategy for eradicating an infectious disease

Apply game theory to analyzing which countries would be likely to contribute funds toward global polio eradication

Discuss the role of private organizations in the provision of global public goods

Details

Kellogg School of Management Cases, vol. no.
Type: Case Study
ISSN: 2474-6568
Published by: Kellogg School of Management

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 9 November 2006

Nola M. Ries

The 2003 global outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) was an abrupt reminder that infectious diseases pose a continuing threat to human health. In 1967…

Abstract

The 2003 global outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) was an abrupt reminder that infectious diseases pose a continuing threat to human health. In 1967, U.S. Surgeon General William H. Stewart declared “it was time to close the book on infectious diseases” (Garrett, 1994, citing W.H. Stewart, “A Mandate for State Action,” presented at the Association of State and Territorial Health Officers, Washington, DC, December 4, 1967). In the latter half of the twentieth century, many shared this bold view that medical science had vanquished infectious disease. As a result, public health struggled to remain relevant in the face of advances in pharmaceuticals, surgery, genetics and other areas that were becoming increasingly dominant in the quest to extend and enhance human life. SARS forced many to rethink the significance of public health and the crisis, though relatively short-lived, (for commentary on the disparities between the responses to HIV and SARS, see e.g. Altman (2003)) underscored the need to rebuild public health capacity that had been allowed to slip down the health system priority list.

Details

Ethics and Epidemics
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-412-6

Book part
Publication date: 31 December 2010

Tran Mai Kien, Tran Thi Tuyet Hanh, Hoang Duc Cuong and Rajib Shaw

Over the last decades, there has been an increasing interest among scientists on the linkage between population health and climate and environmental factors, as well as…

Abstract

Over the last decades, there has been an increasing interest among scientists on the linkage between population health and climate and environmental factors, as well as health impacts of climate change and climate variability. Numerous studies have been done and substantial results achieved, but mostly in the developed countries, and not much quantitative evidence or assessment of the impacts at national and local levels has been provided for developing countries.

Details

Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction: An Asian Perspective
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-85724-485-7

Article
Publication date: 29 April 2022

Bowei Hu and Sumin Koo

The aim of this study was to develop a smart wearable mask designed for the prevention of respiratory infectious diseases by understanding consumer's preferences in…

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this study was to develop a smart wearable mask designed for the prevention of respiratory infectious diseases by understanding consumer's preferences in designs and functions of the smart wearable masks.

Design/methodology/approach

To develop a smart mask design, a survey was conducted on Chinese consumers in their 20–40s and analyzed their mask wearing behaviors, preferences and caring aspects of masks. The collected data were analyzed to identify the demographic characteristics of the subjects surveyed by using the SPSS program, and technical statistical analysis was conducted. To identify differences in demographic characteristics, an independent samples t-test, one-way analysis of variance and Scheffe's ad hoc test were conducted.

Findings

Based on the research results, design guidelines for wearable masks were defined, and four wearable mask designs were developed and presented in 2D and 3D images based on the design guidelines. There were significant differences among people with different backgrounds.

Originality/value

It is significant that this research presents smart wearable mask design guidelines and designs through supplementation and improvement of existing mask. It is expected that this research provides basic empirical data for mask designs through the planning of smart wearable mask designs and surveys assessing consumer perceptions, attitudes and satisfaction.

Details

International Journal of Clothing Science and Technology, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0955-6222

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 October 2017

Heloísa Helena Pimenta Rocha and Henrique Mendonça da Silva

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the introduction of school medical inspection (SMI) in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo (Brazil) during the 1910s, in a process…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the introduction of school medical inspection (SMI) in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo (Brazil) during the 1910s, in a process aligned with the international debate that, since the late nineteenth century, sustained the need of services that focused on the sanitary inspection of schools and their students. It analyzes the purposes guiding the creation of these services and their connections to the spheres of public health and education, highlighting the role taken by the concerns about issues such as the control of infectious diseases, particularly tuberculosis.

Design/methodology/approach

The study consists of a historical analysis using as sources the legislation and documents produced by the SMI. The documents are examined in correlation with the positions defended at international conferences held at the period.

Findings

The study evidences the intricacies of the introduction of SMI services in the Brazilian states that were pioneers in this area. It examines their relations to guidelines established in international forums, which certainly played an important role in the Brazilian efforts. It also allowed to highlight the relations between efforts to create medical inspections in school and those aiming at fighting infectious diseases.

Originality/value

The paper contributes to a better comprehension of the efforts regarding social hygiene and particularly the hygiene of schools and their students in a period in which the state takes greater responsibilities for its population.

Details

History of Education Review, vol. 46 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0819-8691

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 23 October 2003

Beth E Jackson

Epidemiology is often described as “the basic science of public health” (Savitz, Poole & Miller, 1999; Syme & Yen, 2000). This description suggests both a close…

Abstract

Epidemiology is often described as “the basic science of public health” (Savitz, Poole & Miller, 1999; Syme & Yen, 2000). This description suggests both a close association with public health practice, and the separation of “pure” scientific knowledge from its application in the messy social world. Although the attainability of absolute objectivity is rarely claimed, epidemiologists are routinely encouraged to “persist in their efforts to substitute evidence for faith in scientific reasoning” (Stolley, 1985, p. 38) and reminded that “public health decision makers gain little from impassioned scholars who go beyond advancing and explaining the science to promoting a specific public health agenda” (Savitz et al., 1999, p. 1160). Epidemiology produces authoritative data that are transformed into evidence which informs public health. Those data are authoritative because epidemiology is regarded as a neutral scientific enterprise. Because its claims are grounded in science, epidemiological knowledge is deemed to have “a special technical status and hence is not contestable in the same way as are say, religion or ethics” (Lock, 1988, p. 6). Despite the veneer of universality afforded by its scientific pedigree, epidemiology is not a static or monolithic discipline. Epidemiological truth claims are embodied in several shifting paradigms that span the life of the discipline. Public health knowledges and practices, competing claims internal and external to epidemiology, and structural conditions (such as current political economies, material technologies, and institutions) provide important contexts in which certain kinds of epidemiological knowledge are more likely to emerge.

Details

Gender Perspectives on Health and Medicine
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-239-9

Article
Publication date: 21 September 2012

Michael W. Ross and Amy Jo Harzke

This paper aims to explore how the TECH Model (testing for and treating infectious diseases and vaccination; environmental modification to prevent disease transmission;…

1092

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to explore how the TECH Model (testing for and treating infectious diseases and vaccination; environmental modification to prevent disease transmission; chronic disease identification and treatment; and health maintenance and education) can be used for assessing and achieving healthy prisons.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper explores the concepts of “health in prison” and “healthy prisons” in the context of recent research and guidance. The paper then considers the TECH Model as an approach to achieving healthy prisons.

Findings

Under each of the four TECH Model domains are tasks to achieve a healthy prison. For prisons with poor or no resources, each domain contains steps that will improve prison health and move towards a healthy prison for both prisoners and staff. Implementation can thus be “low‐TECH” or “high‐TECH” depending on the setting and the available resources and the model is specifically designed to provide options for resource‐poor as well as resource‐rich correctional settings.

Originality/value

The TECH Model is a first step in characterizing the components of a healthy prison and the processes to achieve this. This Model could be implemented in all levels of prisons internationally.

Details

International Journal of Prisoner Health, vol. 8 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1744-9200

Keywords

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