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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role that weather shocks can play in the livestock mortality microinsurance take-up when the insured risk has a prevalent covariant component.

The sample consists of 360 rural Ethiopian households. Data were collected in a panel-structure at the end of three agricultural seasons (2011-2013). In the questionnaire, a specific section on insurance was meant to collect information on the farmer’s willingness-to-pay (WTP) for a set of insurance products, including livestock mortality insurance. Two OLS regression models and a quantile regression model were employed to estimate the impact of weather anomalies on the WTP for the insurance product.

The authors find that weather anomalies contribute to changes in the WTP to a large extent. Negative (positive) changes in precipitation (temperature) anomalies can lead to more than a 30 percent reduction in the WTP. This general finding is complemented with the analysis of the conditional distribution of the WTP, which shows that other elements can prevail for low values of the conditional distribution. In this case, the WTP seems to be represented more by the interviewee’s age and basic knowledge of insurance, and village fixed-effects. Basic knowledge of insurance, in particular, can increase WTP by about 60 percent.

This paper has straightforward implications from a policy perspective. It suggests that farmers would prefer an insurance premium that follows the changes in the systemic component. On the contrary, insurance as well as reinsurance companies are usually reluctant to frequently revise their premiums. Financial education programs, farmer-driven design, trust building, and bundling insurance with other financial and non-financial products can increase the value proposition perceived by the farmers. From a marketing perspective, the overall findings suggest that continuous fine-tuning of the contract, transparency, and targeted information campaigns can contribute to increase and stabilize potential customers’ WTP.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper that considers the impact of weather shocks on the WTP for a livestock mortality insurance product. Livestock is one of the most strategic assets of poor rural households in Africa. This study contributes to the theoretical and empirical literature on the determinants of weather insurance take-up in developing countries and, in particular, the role of spatiotemporal adverse selection and basis risk (e.g. Jensen et al., 2016).

Conceptualizing development in terms of risk management has become a prominent feature of mainstream development discourse. This has led to a convergence between the rubrics of financial inclusion and risk management whereby improved access for poor households to private sector credit, insurance and savings products is represented as a necessary step toward building “resilience.” This convergence, however, is notable for a shallow understanding of the production and distribution of risks. By naturalizing risk as an inevitable product of complex systems, the approach fails to interrogate how risk is produced and displaced unevenly between social groups. Ignoring the structural and relational dimensions of risk production leads to an overly technical approach to risk management that is willfully blind to the intersection of risk and social power. A case study of the promotion of index-based livestock insurance in Mongolia – held as a model for innovative risk management via financial inclusion – is used to indicate the tensions and contradictions of this projected synthesis of development and risk management.

The purpose of this paper is to present the methods and findings of an experimental game designed to extend the concept of index‐based livestock insurance in northern Kenya, and analyze patterns of game play. The paper is designed to inform others who may be attempting something similar to this work in other developing country agricultural settings.

The paper presents the following: descriptive context of the issue, explanation of the game design to match the conditions in the area, details of how the authors explained the game, and regression analysis of play by participants.

Games designed to reflect key elements of the local production system can be an effective way of explaining financial products to rural producers in developing countries.

It remains to be seen if the extension effort leads to more informed consumers of insurance products, which the authors hope to address in future work. Also, the approach described in this paper is very labor intensive, which could limit use in a wide ranging extension program.

The authors were able to explain the idea to groups that were mixed: female and male. It will be interesting to see if there are any gender dimensions to insurance use. In addition, with competing claims to livestock with complex property rights, there is a need to monitor how insurance interacts with social ideas of livestock ownership.

This is a completely new idea in the area of arid and semi‐arid livestock production, the challenge is pronounced, and as insurance becomes more important in the development economics toolkit, the authors believe others can benefit from seeing what they have done.

Based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)-based insurance developed by the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries of Argentina (MAGyP) with technical assistance of the World Bank (WB), the purpose of this paper is to evaluate the out-of-sample performance of the NDVI-based insurance in Bahía Blanca Department of the south west of Buenos Aires (SWBA) Province in Argentina, by calculating the technical premium with the methodology developed by MAGyP-WB and NDVI information up to 2007, and analyzing the results that would have been obtained in 2008 and 2009.

With the available NDVI information (1982-2009), the authors uses the out-of-sample method to analyze the rating of the contract and the reasonability of the premium payment through a comparison of the frequency and severity of payouts in the NDVI coverage with the losses suffered by droughts in SWBA. Specifically, it has been taken the data until 2006 to set the Triggers and Exits values and to calculate the premium rates, and the payout and loss ratio in 2007 was then analyzed. A similar analysis was done for years 2007-2008 and 2008-2009.

According with the rating methodology described in this paper, payouts determined by the NDVI-based insurance fit with falls in forage production and reduced meat production yields, which confers reasonability to this tool as a coverage option for cattle and fodder producers. Definite technical premiums based on 1982-2007 period, capture the occurrence of severe drought events, defining a risk profile that is consistent with the used information. Adding more observations to the sample, this profile is redefined, showing the sensitivity of the results to the quality and quantity of data used in the analysis.

There is a subjective assessment in the determination of the sample and the weighting of this information. The election of the period to be considered, how to incorporate the changes in the patterns of climate behavior in the medium- and long-term and the expected effects in the NDVI, etc. will impact on the values of resulting technical premiums. In the specific case of this analysis, the fact of not having considered in the sample two extreme years (2008 and 2009) has a concrete implication in the obtained premiums. In this paper, only the Bahía Blanca Department was considered. Rainfall pattern and extensive grazing of natural grassland in the SWBA area might vary from Department to Department, so the results and payouts might change according to these circumstances.

The situation shown in the findings could be seen as an underestimation of the risk to which the producer is exposed and should be taken into account for further researches and insurance products to be designed. When the considered data series shows atypical or extreme values and these are incorporated into the sample, significant changes can be registered in the triggers and premiums.

This paper analyzes how a risk profile is redefined depending on the sample considered and shows the sensitivity of the results to used data when using index-based insurance.

The purpose of this paper is to weigh up the effect of index-based livestock insurance (IBLI) on loan take up behavior of the pastoral households in the Borena zone of Southern Ethiopia. Although the insurance was introduced over the last decade and it appears to have promising welfare benefit, there is a lack of pragmatic evidence on its effect in leveraging the household’s future wealth for the hope of better productivity in the present.

The authors analyze household-level unique panel data collected in three rounds using descriptive statistics and the fixed effect model estimated by least squares dummy variable analysis.

The authors found that the IBLI appears to have a positive and significant effect on the loan uptake behavior of the herding households.

This increased likelihood of loan uptake suggests that the insurance can reduce the cognitive cost of loan default that would occur due to weather shocks and build-up of the household’s confidence to uptake loan. Consequently, this likelihood can promote the creditworthiness of the insured and reduce his/her fear and worry regarding the possibility of loan delinquency.

The paper is, except where otherwise stated, entirely new work.

This paper investigates Chinese agricultural insurance agents willingness to offer (WTO) livestock insurance based on the variations of eight main attributes of livestock insurance.

This study implements discrete choice experiments (DCE) with actual insurance agents who design, sell and operate livestock insurance in China. The choice experiment of this study is based on the D-optimal approach, a six-block design, with 15 cards per block and two choices per card. The sample size was 211. Econometrics results are based on conditional and mixed logit models.

The authors find that the subsidy effect is enormous; a one level increase of subsidy leads to 3.166 times higher probability to offer. This subsidy effect is important as it confirms the endogenous structure between price and quantity in insurance offering, where subsidy does not only incentivize demand but also the supply. Another main factor of insurance investigated is the impact of different coverage types on agents' WTO. The authors find that agents prefer mortality insurance the most, followed by revenue insurance and profit insurance, while Index-Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI) is the least preferred to offer. Agents' knowledge about these newer types of insurance supports their WTO as well; thus, proper education is necessary to promote the more advanced types of livestock insurance.

A limitation is that in the presence of COVID 19, and administrative issues at the local level, the sample was not randomly drawn. Nonetheless, the authors believe that there is enough diversity across participants, insurers and provinces and have done sufficient robustness checks to support results and conclusions.

This study provides further validation for the DCE research method that could potentially be applied to different analyses: using choice experiments to study insurers and reveal their preferences, through combinations of various levels of core attributes for insurance products. The findings and contribution are critical to the reform and improvement of livestock insurance in China and for insurance markets more broadly. The authors find that insurers do not place equal weights or values on insurance product attributes and do not view types of insurance equally. In other words, while farmers may hold different preferences about the type of insurance they demand, the results suggest that insurers also hold preferences in the type of insurance they sell.

So far as the authors are aware, this is the first DCE designed around the supply of insurance products with the subjects being insurance agents, marketers and executives.

This article considers the potential for securitizing index‐based insurance products that transfer weather and natural disaster risks from lower income countries. It begins with a brief overview explaining why markets for natural disaster risks are important, yet often missing, in lower income countries and a review of some recent activities using index‐based weather insurance. Next, we describe how natural disaster risks are handled in higher income countries. These examples, along with the example of an innovative index‐based livestock insurance pilot project in Mongolia, illustrate how layers, or tranches, of natural disaster risk can be financed during the product development phase by creating structures similar to the Special Purpose Vehicles used in catastrophe bond, mortgage bond, and the emerging microfinance bond markets. We refer to these investment alternatives as micro‐CAT bonds since the principle amounts would be small relative to the existing CAT bond market.

Farmer exchange rate (FER) is the ratio between a farmer's income and expenditure and is also an indicator of farmers’ welfare. There is little research regarding its use in risk modeling in crop insurance. This study seeks to propose a design for a household margin insurance scheme of the agricultural sector based on FER.

This research employs various risk modeling concepts, i.e. value at risk, loss models and premium calculation, to construct the proposed model. The standard linear, static and time-varying copula models are used to identify the dependency between variables involved in calculating FER.

First, FER can be considered as the primary variable for risk modeling in agricultural household margin insurance because it demonstrates farmers’ financial ability. Second, temporal dependence estimated using the time-varying copula can minimize errors, reduce the premium rate and result in a tighter guarantee's level of security.

This research extends the previous similar studies related to the use of index ratio in margin insurance loss modeling. Its authenticity is in the use of FER, which represents the farmers' trading capability. FER determines farmers’ losses by considering two aspects: the farmers’ income rate and their ability to fulfill their life and farming needs. Also, originality exists in the use of the time-varying copulas in identifying the dependence of the indices involved in calculating FER.

The purpose of this paper is to review the most recent scientific literature on the determinants explaining the demand for index-insurance, the impact of index-insurance and the existing links between insurance and credit. In this meta-analysis, the authors identify key discoveries on the potential of index-insurance in enhancing credit supply for smallholders and thus farm productivity.

Following a systematic literature search in Scopus and Web of Science, relevant empirical articles were identified by using the following criteria search algorithm: “insurance” and (“weather” or “micro” or “area?based” or “rain*” or “livestock” or “index”), and ((“empiric*” or “experiment” or “trial” or “RCT” or “impact”) or (“credit” or “loan*” or “debt” or “finance”)). The authors identified 1,133 related papers, 110 of which were selected as closely matching the study criteria. After removing duplicates and analysing each document, 45 papers were included in the current analysis. The framework for addressing insurance and credit issues, in the paper, entails three subsequent themes, namely, adoption of insurance, impact of insurance and links between insurance and credit.

It is not confirmed yet that demand for insurance is indeed hump-shaped in risk aversion and the functional form of this relationship should be tested in more detail. This also holds for the magnitude of the effect of trust and education on actual demand. Furthermore, it is unclear to what extent other risk mitigation strategies form complements or substitutes to index-insurance. Lastly, the interaction between basis risk and price is important to the design of index-insurance products. If basis risk and price elasticity are indeed highly correlated, products that diminish basis risk are crucial in increasing demand. On the impact of bundled products, e.g. combination of insurance and credit, limited empirical research has been conducted. For example, it is unknown to what extent credit suppliers would react to the insured status of farmers or what the preferences of farmers are when it comes to a mix of financial products. In addition, several researchers have suggested that microfinance institutions or banks could insure themselves against covariate risk, yet no empirical evidence about this insurance mechanism has been conducted so far.

The authors based the research on scientific literature uploaded in Scopus and Web of Science. Other potentially insightful grey literature was not included due to lack of accessibility. Given the research findings, there is plenty of opportunity for further research particularly with regard to the effects of bundled products, e.g. insurance plus credit, on demand for index-insurance, supply of credit, loan conditions and impact on farm productivity and farmers’ well-being.

Microfinance institutions, insurance companies, NGOs, research institutions and universities, particularly in developing countries, will be interested to learn about the systematic review of scientific research done in the area of insurance and credit for agriculture and the possibilities for application in their own practice of supplying these financial products.

A rigorous understanding of the potential of index-insurance and credit is essential for identifying the right mix of financial products that help smallholder farmers to increase farm productivity and their own well-being.

The paper is valuable due to its rigorous evaluation of existing theoretical and empirical research around issues explaining the degree of adoption and impact of index-insurance and that of bundled financial products (i.e. index-insurance plus credit). The paper has the potential to become essential reading for academics, practitioners and policy-makers interested in researching and putting in practice the best options leading to greater farm productivity and well-being in developing countries.

Examine the usability of rainfall and temperature outputs of a regional climate model (RCM) and meteorological drought indices to develop a macro-level risk transfer product to compensate the government of Central Java, Indonesia, for drought-related disaster payments to rice farmers.

Based on 0.5° gridded rainfall and temperature data (1960–2015) and projections of the WRF-RCM (2016–2040), the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) are calculated for Central Java over different time spans. The drought indices are correlated to annual and seasonal rice production, based on which a weather index insurance structure is developed.

The six-month SPI correlates best with the wet season rice production, which generates most output in Central Java. The SPI time series reveals that drought severity increases in future years (2016–2040) and leads to higher payouts from the weather index structure compared to the historical period (1960–2015).

The developed methodology in using SPI for historical and projected periods allows the development of weather index insurance in other regions which have a clear link between rainfall deficit and agricultural production volatility.

Meteorological drought indices are a viable alternative for weather index insurance, which is usually based on rainfall amounts. RCM outputs provide valuable insights into future climate variability and drought risk and prolong the time series, which should result in more robust weather index insurance products.