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1 – 10 of over 26000Introduction: Financial development has a direct impact on the housing market by facilitating access to credit. The increase in housing loans resulting from the relaxation of the…
Abstract
Introduction: Financial development has a direct impact on the housing market by facilitating access to credit. The increase in housing loans resulting from the relaxation of the credit constraint causes an increase in housing demand and house prices. Purpose: This study aims to examine the relationship between financial development and house prices in Turkey, using the variables: the domestic credit to the private sector and total housing and consumer credits. Methodology: To determine any long-run relationship between financial development and house prices, the autoregressive distributed lag methods are used, covering the selected variables such as real GDP, inflation, mortgage interest rate, and stock price from 2010Q1 to 2020Q2. Findings: The study’s findings show that both variables representing financial development have a statistically significant and substantial positive effect on house prices. Besides, the selected macroeconomic variables have the theoretically expected impact on house prices.
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S. Belgin Akçay, Cagin Karul and Mert Akyuz
The purpose of this study is to examine whether there is a causal relationship between mortgage credit and house prices in Turkey.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to examine whether there is a causal relationship between mortgage credit and house prices in Turkey.
Design/methodology/approach
Granger causality test, Toda–Yamamoto causality test, Fourier Granger causality test and Fourier Toda–Yamamoto causality tests are applied.
Findings
The findings show that there is a strong one-way causality between mortgage credit and house prices and that the developments in credit markets are more decisive in the relationship between mortgage credit and house prices than the developments in the housing markets.
Practical implications
Considering a causal relationship between mortgage credit and house prices may contribute to more efficient use of the tools of both macroeconomic and microeconomic policies for the mortgage credit and housing markets in Turkey. Furthermore, by understanding the importance of the direction of causality between both dynamics, it may be possible to prevent and/or mitigate the negative effects of large house price movements on both Turkish housing and mortgage markets as well as on Turkish economy.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the contribution of this study is to examine for the first time whether the causal relationship between mortgage credit and house prices in Turkey is mutual as well as to apply four different causality tests and to compare their results for the first time.
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Juan Carlos Cuestas and Merike Kukk
This paper aims to investigate the mutual dependence between housing prices and housing credit in Estonia, a country that experienced rapid debt accumulation during the 2000s and…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate the mutual dependence between housing prices and housing credit in Estonia, a country that experienced rapid debt accumulation during the 2000s and big swings in house prices during that period.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use Bayesian econometric methods on data spanning 2000–2015.
Findings
The estimations show the interdependence between house prices and housing credit. More importantly, negative housing credit innovations had a stronger effect on house prices than positive ones.
Originality/value
The asymmetry in the linkage between housing credit and house prices highlights important policy implications, in that if central banks increase capital buffers during good times, they can release credit conditions during hard times to alleviate the negative spillover into house prices and the real economy.
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Norifumi Yukutake and Yoko Moriizumi
Japan has been suffering from a decline in the rate of young adults homeownership for a long time. The reduction of the homeownership rate for young adults suggests a delay of…
Abstract
Purpose
Japan has been suffering from a decline in the rate of young adults homeownership for a long time. The reduction of the homeownership rate for young adults suggests a delay of tenure transition from renting to owning a home. Such delays further imply that there is insufficient wealth accumulation and a low level of welfare. This paper examines these influences of the credit rationing and the credit rationing impact on the reduction in the young adults’ homeownership rate.
Design/methodology/approach
Credit rationing impacts the timing of house purchases and the value of the houses at the same time. This paper estimates these impacts jointly using a simultaneous equation system (minimum distance estimation) and the micro data on Japan.
Findings
This paper divides the effect of credit rationing on the timing into direct and indirect effects. The former is the rationing effect on timing, keeping the other variables constant, while the latter is the effect via changes in house values. This paper finds that the indirect effect reduces the rationing effect on the timing by decreasing house values. Furthermore, the results show that credit rationing delays home acquisition by prospective young owners (direct effect) and necessarily lowers the quality of houses they purchase.
Originality/value
In the previous papers, the endogeneity among the variables related to the housing purchase was not addressed. To separate the endogeneity of the timing from the house value, this paper applies the simultaneous equation model. Furthermore, this paper exhibits that there are direct and indirect effects of credit rationing on the timing of housing purchase made by young households. None of the previous papers recognize these two effects.
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Lee Chin and Xiaoran Li
Housing prices in China have increased rapidly over the past decade. Motivated by the fact that the real estate market and bank credit scale are vastly different in Chinese…
Abstract
Purpose
Housing prices in China have increased rapidly over the past decade. Motivated by the fact that the real estate market and bank credit scale are vastly different in Chinese cities, the purpose of this paper is to compare the impact of bank credit on house prices in first- and second-tier cities in China.
Design/methodology/approach
In this study, a panel data method was used to investigate 19 first-tier cities and 30 second-tier cities between the period 2003 and 2018.
Findings
The empirical analysis undertaken in this study found that bank credit was relevant to house prices but varied in different cities in which house prices in second-tier cities tended to be more affected by bank credit compared to those in first-tier cities. In contrast, population was found to be a dominant factor that influenced house prices in first-tier cities. Likewise, the factors, per capita and gross domestic product, were found to exert a significant influence on house prices in first- and second-tier cities.
Practical implications
This paper provided numerous policies to control the price of housing in first- and second-tier cities.
Originality/value
The housing prices, bank credit scale and population distribution are vastly different in different cities in China. This research considers these differences while examining the dominant factors that affect house prices in first- and second-tier cities in China.
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The purpose of this study is to investigate whether increases in homeowner green amenities occurred because of income tax credits to the degree that changes in housing prices are…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to investigate whether increases in homeowner green amenities occurred because of income tax credits to the degree that changes in housing prices are measurable. Are higher incomes, lower mortgage rates and green income-tax credits impacting housing price changes?
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses the least-squares regression model with natural log specifications. The log of income and a dummy variable, which was assigned to the Energy Policy Act (2005) and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (2009) coverage dates are used as independent variables. Two regression models were examined using monthly housing price data from January 1990 through the year 2018. The first regression model used a single dummy variable for credits available under the Policy Act of 2005 and the Recovery Act of 2009. The second regression model considered the credits granted under these two laws separately. Disposable income per capita impacts demands for housing while green upgrade expenditures affect the cost of housing.
Findings
The laws set low credit limits of $500 followed by $1,500 but because of the multiplier effect, the spending appears to have magnified and been much higher. The credit availability variables have positive coefficients and were significant at 1 per cent. This implies that single-family housing prices were sensitive to the existence of residential energy property income-tax credits. The R2 results were 0.93 or above for both models.
Research limitations/implications
The data used was aggregated and publicly available online. Many studies use aggregated macroeconomic data when modeling housing prices using the exogenous variable of disposable income but there is no substitute for examining individual homes by location and their sales price to see under what conditions green income-tax credits have the most impact. There could be demographic issues that are missed when using aggregated information.
Practical implications
Spending on heating/cooling systems, dual pane windows and other green amenities keeps the housing stock modernized and housing prices steady or rising. An additional benefit is that spending motivated by self-interest can simulate household consumption spending. Houses deteriorate due to wear and tear. Physical-repairable depreciation represents a situation where maintenance funds are continuously needing to be spent. Repairs and upgrades to the structure of the property keep its price stable by stopping the physical depreciation that would otherwise occur with the passage of time.
Social implications
The paper provides support for the idea that residential green amenity upgrades positively impact the value of a house. These green-amenity upgrades, which other research studies have suggested should be included explicitly in the appraisal process, are a major characteristic of a property when a price estimate is being done. Housing being sold should have a section on the information sheet noting the property green upgrades that exist and an energy efficiency score should be assigned to each house listed for sale.
Originality/value
There are few (if any) academic research papers studying the impact of green tax credits available under the Energy Policy Act (2005) and under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (2009). The degree to which green income-tax credits stimulate spending on housing has not been addressed by researchers. This paper is an initial research attempt to quantify whether these legislative efforts measurably encouraged homeowners to adopt newer, greener technologies.
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Dario Pontiggia and Petros Stavrou Sivitanides
The purpose of this paper is to assess whether the rapid accumulation of bank deposits before the global financial crisis and their subsequent drastic reduction was the main…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to assess whether the rapid accumulation of bank deposits before the global financial crisis and their subsequent drastic reduction was the main driving force of the Cyprus house price cycle over the period 2006–2015.
Design/methodology/approach
To this aim we estimate a three-equation model in which house prices are determined by housing loans, among other factors, and housing loans are determined by bank deposits. All equations are estimated using partial adjustment model specifications.
Findings
Our findings indicate that housing loans, which capture the effect of credit availability on housing demand, had the smallest effect on house prices, thus providing little support to our proposition of a deposits-driven cycle in house prices.
Research limitations/implications
The main limitation of the study is the use of the housing loan stock instead of the actual volume of housing loans in each period due to lack of such data. As a result our econometric estimates may not accurately capture the magnitude of the effect of housing loans on house prices.
Practical implications
The study has important practical implications for policy makers as it highlights the importance of availability of credit in supporting effective demand for housing during periods of economic growth. Furthermore, it highlights the key role of house price increases in combination with the collateral effect in driving the house price cycle.
Originality/value
This is among the few studies internationally and the first study in Cyprus that attempts to link econometrically the credit and house price cycles that were caused by the global financial crisis.
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Christopher Gan, Baiding Hu, Cindy Gao, Betty Kao and David A. Cohen
This paper seeks to investigate the impact of socioeconomic factors of homebuyers such as gender, age, marital status, education, economic status and race on home ownership and…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper seeks to investigate the impact of socioeconomic factors of homebuyers such as gender, age, marital status, education, economic status and race on home ownership and loan decisions in urban China.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper employs logistic regression to investigate the socioeconomic factors affecting the consumers' house purchase decision in urban China and the factors affecting the housing loan application.
Findings
Using a structured questionnaire to collect relevant data from household residents (both homeowners and non-home owners) in Nanjing in 2010, the findings document that male respondents who are non-minorities and have higher levels of education are more likely to purchase a house. The results also show that race, educational attainment, size of household and credit card ownership are significantly related to rejection for a housing loan.
Research limitations/implications
The findings in this paper provide homebuyers with a better understanding of factors affecting the housing loans and their decision to purchase a house. Homebuyers can accurately assess their financial ability and improve the use of their credit to purchase a house. In addition, Chinese homebuyers should be encouraged to save since savings serve as a step in building their credit worthiness; therefore, their accessibility to housing loans can be improved and the rate of homeownership will be increased as well.
Originality/value
This research would benefit both lender and borrowers. The research findings provide banks with a better understanding of homebuyers' characteristics that influence their accessibilities to housing loans. Homeownership requires affordable housing financing. Banks should consider repackaging their home loan products to make them more attractive to those with limited means. Such products should focus on making loans more affordable in real terms. First-time homebuyers are almost always young and earn low incomes.
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The housing finance market in Ghana is highly underdeveloped. This may be as a result of unfriendly or poor regulatory environment. This paper seeks to examine the regulatory…
Abstract
Purpose
The housing finance market in Ghana is highly underdeveloped. This may be as a result of unfriendly or poor regulatory environment. This paper seeks to examine the regulatory environment and to determine its impact on the development of the formal housing finance market in the country.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper executes this by surveying the housing finance literature. It also carries out a review of the legal framework of the country's mortgage market.
Findings
It is found that inadequate foreclosure rights of lenders before December 2008 constrained the development of the formal housing finance market in Ghana. The research notes that the enactment of the Home Mortgage Finance Act, 2008 (Act 770) in December 2008 has created a conducive legal environment for collateralised lending in the country. This has improved the prospects of developing the housing finance market in the country.
Practical implications
It is noted that a credit bureau industry and mortgage refinancing mechanisms must be put in place if the Act 770, 2008 is to facilitate mortgage market development in the country. It recommends additional policy and institutional reforms.
Originality/value
The paper identifies the legal and institutional constraints on housing finance market development in Ghana.
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Elisabetta Marzano, Paolo Piselli and Roberta Rubinacci
The purpose of this paper is to provide a dating system for the Italian residential real estate market from 1927 to 2019 and investigate its interaction with credit and business…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to provide a dating system for the Italian residential real estate market from 1927 to 2019 and investigate its interaction with credit and business cycles.
Design/methodology/approach
To detect the local turning point of the Italian residential real estate market, the authors apply the honeycomb cycle developed by Janssen et al. (1994) based on the joint analysis of house prices and the number of transactions. To this end, the authors use a unique historical reconstruction of house price levels by Baffigi and Piselli (2019) in addition to data on transactions.
Findings
This study confirms the validity of the honeycomb model for the last four decades of the Italian housing market. In addition, the results show that the severe downsizing of the housing market is largely associated with business and credit contraction, certainly contributing to exacerbating the severity of the recession. Finally, preliminary evidence suggests that whenever a price bubble occurs, it is coincident with the start of phase 2 of the honeycomb cycle.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time that the honeycomb approach has been tested over such a long historical period and compared to the cyclic features of financial and real aggregates. In addition, even if the honeycomb cycle is not a model for detecting booms and busts in the housing market, the preliminary evidence might suggest a role for volume/transactions in detecting housing market bubbles.
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