Search results

This paper aims to examine the main characteristics of the housing taxation and subsidy systems in six European Union countries. The structure of this support over the past two decades, before and after the global financial crisis has been investigated and its total effective dimensions have been approximated.

Official national data and existing literature on housing policy expenses have been analysed and the authors add their own estimations of missing data, where possible. Latest changes in housing policy guidelines and expenses were interpreted.

It was found that state support for housing is heavily underestimated by official data in most countries, mainly due to missing estimates for the value of imputed rents tax relief, reduced VAT rates and low real estate and capital gains taxation. Our estimates suggest that total public support for the housing sector reaches more than 3 per cent of the gross domestic product in three of the six countries, and about 2 per cent in the others. State support to the housing sector has developed quite differently in the investigated countries over the past decades. In particular, there was no universal downward trend.

This is the first attempt to provide a more comprehensive analysis of national housing policy expenses applying a very broad definition of state support for housing. In particular, we consider indirect tax advantages to the housing sector that are generally not taken into account. Furthermore, we apply a discounted present value approach of current housing policy expenses to facilitate international comparison.

Model the drivers of Australian housing affordability and forecast equilibrium affordability. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

Uses autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to model housing affordability measured by the Housing Industry Association's Housing Affordability Index (HAI) and the housing price-earnings multiplier (HPE). Six sets of explanatory variables, including housing finance, housing construction activity and costs, economic growth, population, alternative investments and taxation.

Primary long-run drivers are housing finance, dwelling approvals and financial assets. Economic and population growth only have a short-run influence, while housing taxation has limited impact in long run. Forecasts indicate long-run HAI equilibrium values of 109 (above the historical minimum of 107) and a HPE of seven (below the recent historical maximum of 8.2).

Reduced form model encompassing both demand and supply factors involves complicated interpretation given direct and indirect effects on affordability. Analysis at national level ignores regional impacts that may also affect housing affordability.

The impact of the low rate of new dwelling approvals (public and private sector in the long run and public sector in the short run) points to a persistent structural gap between the demand and supply of housing. Strong economic and population growth often blamed for the worsening of housing affordability, at least in the 2000s, has no impact at the aggregate national level.

Only known paper to provide quantitative estimates of macro drivers of Australian housing affordability over a long period using alternative measures of relative housing affordability.

Transaction costs, responsive housing supply, rent controls, tenant protection, and access to credit affect residential mobility – these different parts of housing policy are included in what has been defined as housing regimes, which embrace regulations, laws, norms, and ideology as well as economic factors. In this chapter, we investigate how these regimes change by using institutional theories of path dependence. We use Sweden as an example and study three Swedish housing market reforms during the past decades that may have affected residential mobility, each related to one of the main institutional pillars of housing provision: tenure legislation, taxation, and finance. More precisely, we study the development of the rental regulation since the late 1960s, the tax reform in 1991, and the new reforms on mortgages since 2010. What caused these reforms? What were the main mechanisms behind them, and why did they occur at the time they did? We argue, besides affecting residential mobility, these reforms have the common feature of including interesting elements of path dependence and forming critical junctures that have led the development on to a new path. Institutions of tenure legislation, housing finance, and taxation are often claimed to have effects on residential mobility. Although they are seldom designed with the explicit aim of supporting (or counteracting) residential mobility, they may sometimes do so as more or less unintended consequences.

It was not until the late 1960s that housing attracted much attention from academic social scientists. Since that time the literature has expanded widely and diversified, establishing housing with a specialised status in economics, sociology, politics, and in related subjects. As we would expect, the new literature covers a technical, statistical, theoretical, ideological, and historical range. Housing studies have not been conceived and interpreted in a monolithic way, with generally accepted concepts and principles, or with uniformly fixed and precise methodological approaches. Instead, some studies have been derived selectively from diverse bases in conventional theories in economics or sociology, or politics. Others have their origins in less conventional social theory, including neo‐Marxist theory which has had a wider intellectual following in the modern democracies since the mid‐1970s. With all this diversity, and in a context where ideological positions compete, housing studies have consequently left in their wake some significant controversies and some gaps in evaluative perspective. In short, the new housing intellectuals have written from personal commitments to particular cognitive, theoretical, ideological, and national positions and experiences. This present piece of writing takes up the two main themes which have emerged in the recent literature. These themes are first, questions relating to building and developing housing theory, and, second, the issue of how we are to conceptualise housing and relate it to policy studies. We shall be arguing that the two themes are closely related: in order to create a useful housing theory we must have awareness and understanding of housing practice and the nature of housing.

The global financial crisis has led to increased attention on the relationship of household indebtedness and systemic risks. As a result, macroprudential measures aimed at reducing the risks have been introduced in many countries. The purpose of this paper is to review the recent empirical literature on the measures targeted at households in the housing markets.

This note reviews and discusses the recent empirical literature on macroprudential measures targeted at households in the housing market as well as housing-related tax policy measures.

To date, the literature mostly consists of cross-country studies using aggregate data and looking at a large set of different measures. The studies typically report associations between the measures and the outcome variables of interest (often credit growth and house price appreciation), but do not assess the causal effects of the different measures or the underlying mechanisms.

Exploiting household data together with policy reforms should be a useful step forward in understanding the effects of the measures and uncovering the mechanisms through which they operate. This would also allow studying the distributional effects of the measures. Understanding the distributional effects is important in its own right, but it is also required because the ultimate goals of the macroprudential policies are related not only to the aggregate level of credit but also to the distribution of leverage.

The study is intended to identify the macroeconomic factors that drive the use of companies registered in tax havens to purchase properties in the UK housing market.

Adopts an empirical study that uses Cointegration and Vector Autoregressive models to identify the influence or the motivations of using tax havens regime and its relationship with investment volume by analysing impulse responses of innovations to external and domestic factors.

The model uses monthly data for the period 1996–2019. This provides sufficient evidence that offshore buyers are particularly motivated by exchange values and the quality of governance in host economies.

There is much to be revealed from the spatial distribution of this phenomena and the welfare effect at the micro-level.

To the best of my knowledge there is limited to no empirical study that primarily focus on the use of tax haven as an offshore investment tool in the UK housing market. The study also uses new dataset, Overseas Companies Ownership Dataset in the UK to understand housing ownership patterns by companies that are registered abroad dubbed, offshore buyers.

This study aims to examine dynamic interactions among economic growth, geography and the housing market with public goods financed by the government. A general dynamic equilibrium model of an isolated economy with economic geography, local public goods and capital accumulation is to be constructed. The economy has three sectors, supplying industrial goods, housing, and local public goods. The model synthesizes the main ideas in neoclassical growth theory, the Alonso urban model, and the Muth housing model in an alternative framework to the traditional growth theory.

The model is based on the neoclassical growth theory with an alternative approach to household behavior. The paper shows how to solve the dynamics of the economic system and simulate the model to demonstrate dynamic interactions among economic growth, housing market, residential distribution and public goods over time and space.

The paper simulates equilibrium and motion of the spatial economy with Cobb‐Douglas production and utility functions. The simulation demonstrates, for example, that, as the tax rate on the land income is increased, the total capital stocks and the stocks employed by the three sectors are increased, the rate of interest falls and the output of the industrial sector and the wage rate are increased, the land devoted to local public goods falls and the land rent and housing rent rise over space, the consumption level of the industrial goods and the total expenditures on the public goods are increased.

The paper provides some possible implications of the model for complicated consequences of government policy over time and space. In particular, the paper shows that a change in government policy not only has a macroeconomic impact over time, but also affects the economic geography of the national economy.

The paper offers insights into the linkage among growth, national public policies and economic geography.

Downward movements in house prices can exacerbate bank crises if mark‐to‐market methods of asset valuation are used by lenders to assess their current balance sheet exposure. There is an imperative to find methods of house price index calculation that reflect equilibrium prices rather than temporary undershoots. The purpose of this paper is to propose a new methodology in order to evaluate whether market house prices are different from their fundamental asset prices.

This paper proposes a method for house asset valuation that incorporates expected house price appreciation as an endogenous variable. This avoids the necessity to make conjectures about expected future house price appreciation when applying Poterba's user‐cost method of house asset valuation. The methodological extension to Poterba's user‐cost method of house asset valuation endogenises expected house price appreciation as the no‐arbitrage expected price appreciation consistent with the term structure of real interest rates. A benchmark equilibrium house valuation can be calculated because the term structure of real forward interest rates is observable in financial markets. This enables market house prices to be compared with the benchmark equilibrium valuation in order to determine if house prices are overvalued or undervalued.

The paper presents the results of a worked example to illustrate how this approach could be applied in practice.

There are a number of issues associated with the measurement of user cost which we do not address here and which the authors hope will provide fruitful avenues for future research. There are also issues regarding the impact of tax frameworks on the returns to housing, particularly the taxation of mortgage interest and imputed income. More work also needs to be done in comparing the performance of the extended Poterba model against alternative approaches, such as those that use expected inflation and/or long‐run average house price appreciation, or the real interest rate spread to proxy for expected capital appreciation, and how these different approaches compare in different institutional and socio‐economic contexts.

The authors' results underscore the rationale for mortgage banks to use marking to model instead of marking to market, and this in turn should reduce unnecessary macroeconomic instability when the market prices of houses undershoot fundamental value.

The paper shows how the term structure of real forward interest rates, observable in financial markets, can be used to extend the Poterba model.

This paper aims to investigate Malaysia’s house prices behaviour by decomposing trend, cycle and stochastic component.

The authors perform an unobserved component model of a structural time series and Markov switching model that covers the period 1999Q1 to 2015Q4.

The results reveal that the variation in house price in Malaysia is best explained by its trend level, with a small role played by the cycle component; this implies the potential for gaining returns on investments in property by investors and households. The results also show that Malaysia’s HPI cycle is between 8 and 17 years which, in relative terms, is twice the length of the growth cycle and the business cycle in the economy. Meanwhile, the overall movement of HPI is forecast to have a marginal price increase up to 2028Q2.

As house prices remained elevated during the year, the house price dynamic is pivotal for understanding the source of changes in house price. With major findings centred on the relationship between house prices and macroeconomic as well as policy variables, little attention has been paid to composing the trend, cycle and seasonal pattern from the house price index, thus understanding the behaviour of house prices’ unobserved components.

Buildings contribute significantly to CO₂ production. They are also subject to considerable taxation based on value. Analysis shows that while similar attributes contribute to both value and CO₂ production, there is only a loose relationship between the two. If we wish to use taxation to affect policy change (drive energy efficiency behaviour), we are unlikely to achieve this using only the current tax base (value), or by increasing the tax take off this current tax base (unlike extra taxation of cigarettes to discourage smoking, for example). Taxation of buildings on the basis of energy efficiency is hampered by the lack of current evidence of performance. This paper aims to model the now-obligatory (at sale or letting) energy performance certificate (EPC) data to derive an acceptable appraisal model (marked to market, being the EPC scores) and deploys this to the entire population of properties. This provides an alternative tax base with which to model the effects of a tax base switch to energy efficiency and to understand the tax incidence effects of such a policy.

The research uses a multiplicative hedonic approach to model energy efficiency utilising EPC holding properties in a UK jurisdiction [Northern Ireland (NI)] as the sample. This model is then used to estimate discrete energy assessments for each property in the wider population, using attributes held in the domestic rating (property tax) database for NI (700,000+ properties). This produces a robust estimate of the EPC for every property in its current condition and its cost-effective improved condition. This energy assessment based tax base is further used to estimate a new millage rate and property tax bill (green property tax) which is compared against the existing property tax based on value to allow tax incidence changes to be analysed.

The findings show that such a policy would significantly redistribute the tax burden and would have a variety of expected and some unexpected effects. The results indicate that while assessing the energy performance of houses can be a complex process involving many parameters, much of the explanatory power can be achieved via a relatively small number of input variables, often already held by property tax jurisdictions. This offers the opportunity for useful housing stock modelling – such as the savings possible from power switching. The research also identifies that whilst urban areas display the expected “heat island” effect in terms of energy consumption, urban properties are on average more efficient than suburban/rural properties. This facilitates spatial targeting of policy messages and initiatives.

Analogous with other studies, data deficiencies introduce the risk of omitted variable bias. Modelling of the energy efficiency in the sample is limited to property attributes that are available for the wider population of properties. While this limits the modelling exercise, it is a perennial issue facing mass appraisal worldwide (where knowledge of the transacted sample attributes generally exceeds knowledge of the unsold properties). That said, the research demonstrates the benefits of sharing data and improving knowledge of the housing stock, as taxation databases would be stronger, augmented with EPC-derived property attributes for example.

The EPC lead in time for wide residential coverage is likely to be considerable. The paper contributes to emerging literature and policy debate surrounding the effect, performance measurement and implementation of energy efficiency certification, through a greater understanding of the sectorial and geographical dispersion of energy efficiency. It provides high level research to help guide policy and decision-making, identifying key locales where there is more of a physical problem and locations where there is more to gain in terms of targeting energy improvement and/or encouraging behavioural change. The paper also allows a glimpse of the implications of a change towards a taxation regime based on energy efficiency, which contributes to the debate surrounding the “greening” of property based taxes.