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Article
Publication date: 2 April 2024

Omokolade Akinsomi, Mustapha Bangura and Joseph Yacim

Several studies have examined the impact of market fundamentals on house prices. However, the effect of economic sectors on housing prices is limited despite the existence of…

Abstract

Purpose

Several studies have examined the impact of market fundamentals on house prices. However, the effect of economic sectors on housing prices is limited despite the existence of two-speed economies in some countries, such as South Africa. Therefore, this study aims to examine the impact of mining activities on house prices. This intends to understand the direction of house price spreads and their duration so policymakers can provide remediation to the housing market disturbance swiftly.

Design/methodology/approach

This study investigated the effect of mining activities on house prices in South Africa, using quarterly data from 2000Q1 to 2019Q1 and deploying an auto-regressive distributed lag model.

Findings

In the short run, we found that changes in mining activities, as measured by the contribution of this sector to gross domestic product, impact the housing price of mining towns directly after the first quarter and after the second quarter in the non-mining cities. Second, we found that inflationary pressure is instantaneous and impacts house prices in mining towns only in the short run but not in the long run, while increasing housing supply will help cushion house prices in both submarkets. This study extended the analysis by examining a possible spillover in house prices between mining and non-mining towns. This study found evidence of spillover in housing prices from mining towns to non-mining towns without any reciprocity. In the long run, a mortgage lending rate and housing supply are significant, while all the explanatory variables in the non-mining towns are insignificant.

Originality/value

These results reveal that enhanced mining activities will increase housing prices in mining towns after the first quarter, which is expected to spill over to non-mining towns in the next quarter. These findings will inform housing policymakers about stabilising the housing market in mining and non-mining towns. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to measure the contribution of mining to house price spillover.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 March 2024

Hon Chung Hui

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of financialisation on the changing structure of housing supply in Malaysia. The share of newly launched sub-MYR250,000 houses…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of financialisation on the changing structure of housing supply in Malaysia. The share of newly launched sub-MYR250,000 houses has been decreasing continuously in the past decade. This implies that housing developers are launching more expensive houses. The greater focus on higher cost housing could be attributed to inflation. But while input cost is rising, the housing sector has also become increasingly financialised. This claim can be supported by the rising share of mortgage and real estate loans in gross domestic product. Financialisation is a process in which the financial sector becomes more dominant relative to the real sector. The extent to which this process is responsible for the changing structure of housing supply in Malaysia is investigated.

Design/methodology/approach

A survey of the literature suggested that the decreasing the proportion of newly launched sub-MYR250,000 housing could be result of rising input cost, greater degree of financialisation and changing market concentration. Thus, long-run cointegrating equations were formulated and estimated. These equations linked housing share with financialisation, market structure and input cost. The quantitative and qualitative impact of financialisation on the structure of housing supply is of interest.

Findings

The analyses of secondary data suggested that financialisation and input cost did indeed contribute to the decrease in proportion of newly launched sub-MYR250,000 housing. However, the impact of market concentration on housing share was ambiguous. This conclusion survived several robustness checks.

Practical implications

The financialisation of the housing sector implies that developers are increasingly building for profits instead of accommodating the social objective of providing shelter. This result is unsettling because access to adequate housing is a human right. The transformation of housing from the concept of a shelter to a tradable, money-making asset could be a major contributor to the declining housing affordability in the country. Thus, efforts to improve affordability must take account of the effects of financialisation.

Originality/value

An empirical framework for assessing the changes in the structure of housing supply was developed. Existing studies tended to focus only on the volume of housing supply. It is a comprehensive study on changes in the structure of housing supply. Second, while existing studies on the financialisation of housing are mostly qualitative in methodology, this paper offers a quantitative assessment of the financialisation in the housing sector.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 January 2024

Siti Hafsah Zulkarnain, Abdol Samad Nawi, Miguel Angel Esquivias and Anuar Husin

The purpose of this study is designed to achieve the learning process in producing studies involving economic issues and scenarios in business management in Malaysia. In addition…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is designed to achieve the learning process in producing studies involving economic issues and scenarios in business management in Malaysia. In addition, this study will provide exposure to the integration of managerial skills by using both microeconomics and macroeconomics concepts and theories to aid decision-making in a business environment.

Design/methodology/approach

The research method comprised qualitative methodology of literature review, case study and quantitative methodology of multiple linear regression (MLR). In this case, seven microeconomics and macroeconomics factors which are believed to significantly affect house price index (HPI) are taken into consideration which includes gross domestic product, consumer price index (CPI), government tax and subsidy on housing, overnight policy rate, unemployment rate (UNEMP), the median income (INC) and cost of production index.

Findings

This research has resulted in three significant factors affecting HPI from MLR, which include CPI, UNEMP and INC where the increase of these factors will cause a high increment of HPI. The other four factors are not significant.

Originality/value

Malaysia has been facing the stagnancy in house market these recent years due to issues such as massive oversupply, impacting Malaysia’s economy specifically focusing on domestic direct investment. To avoid oversupply issues, the vitality of future house demand and pricing forecast should be comprehended by involved bodies for more effective planning for the house development industry. To make a better and bigger impact, this research is intended to analyse the microeconomic and macroeconomic factors affecting the HPI to better understand the significance of each of these factors to the changes of HPI to resolve these economic issues.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 January 2023

Chin Tiong Cheng and Gabriel Hoh Teck Ling

Increasing overhang of serviced apartments poses a serious concern to the national property market. This study aims to examine the impacts of macroeconomic determinants, namely…

Abstract

Purpose

Increasing overhang of serviced apartments poses a serious concern to the national property market. This study aims to examine the impacts of macroeconomic determinants, namely, gross domestic product (GDP), consumer confidence index (CF), existing stocks (ES), incoming supply (IS) and completed project (CP) on serviced apartment price changes.

Design/methodology/approach

To achieve more accurate, quality price changes, a serviced apartment price index (SAPI) was constructed through a self-developed hedonic price index model. This study has collected 1,567 transaction data in Kuala Lumpur, covering 2009Q1–2018Q4 for price index construction and data were analysed using the vector autoregressive model, the vector error correction model and the fully modified ordinary least squares (OLS) (FMOLS).

Findings

Results of the regression model show that only GDP, ES and IS were significantly associated with SAPI, with an R2 of 0.7, where both ES and IS have inverse relationships with SAPI. More precisely, it is predicted that the price of serviced apartments will be reduced by 0.56% and 0.21% for every 1% increase in ES and IS, respectively.

Practical implications

Therefore, government monitoring of serviced apartments’ future supply is crucial by enforcing land use-planning regulations via stricter development approval of serviced apartments to safeguard and achieve more stable property prices.

Originality/value

By adopting an innovative approach to estimating the response of price change to supply and demand in a situation where there is no price indicator for serviced apartments, the study addresses the knowledge gap, especially in terms of understanding what are the key determinants of, and to what extent they influence, the SAPI.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 October 2022

Fredrick Otieno Okuta, Titus Kivaa, Raphael Kieti and James Ouma Okaka

This paper studies the dynamic effects of selected macroeconomic factors on the performance of the housing market in Kenya using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Models. This…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper studies the dynamic effects of selected macroeconomic factors on the performance of the housing market in Kenya using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Models. This study aims to explain the dynamic effects of the macroeconomic factors on the three indicators of the housing market performance: housing prices growth, sales index and rent index.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used ARDL Models on time series data from 1975 to 2020 of the selected macroeconomic factors sourced from Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Central Bank of Kenya and Hass Consult Limited.

Findings

The results indicate that household income, gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rates and exchange rates have both short-run and long-run effects on housing prices while interest rates, diaspora remittance, construction output and urban population have no significant effects on housing prices both in the short and long run. However, only household income, interest rates, private capital inflows and exchange rates have a significant effect on housing sales both in the short and long run. Furthermore, household income, GDP, interest rates and exchange rates significantly affect housing rental growth in the short and long run. The findings are key for policymaking, especially at the appraisal stages of real estate investments by the developers.

Practical implications

The authors recommend the use of both the traditional hedonic models in conjunction with the dynamic models during real estate project appraisals as this would ensure that developers only invest in the right projects in the right economic situations.

Originality/value

The imbalance between housing demand and supply has prompted an investigation into the role of macroeconomic variables on the housing market in Kenya. Although the effects of the variables have been documented, there is a need to document the short-run and long-term effects of the factors to precisely understand the behavior of the housing market as a way of shielding developers from economic losses.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 April 2024

Muhammad Tariq, Muhammad Azam Khan and Niaz Ali

This study aims to investigate the effect of monetary policy on housing prices for US economy. It specifically examines whether nominal or real interest rates are the key drivers…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the effect of monetary policy on housing prices for US economy. It specifically examines whether nominal or real interest rates are the key drivers behind fluctuations in housing prices in US.

Design/methodology/approach

Monthly data from January 1991 to July 2023 and various appropriate analytical tools such as unit root tests, Johansen’s cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), impulse response function and Granger causality test were applied for the data analysis.

Findings

The Johansen cointegration findings reveal the presence of a long-term relationship among the variables. VECM results indicate a negative correlation between nominal and real interest rates and housing prices in both the short and long terms, suggesting that a strict monetary policy can help in controlling the housing price increase in the USA. However, housing prices are more responsive to changes in nominal interest rates than to real interest rates. Additionally, the study reveals that the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the upsurge in housing prices in the USA.

Originality/value

This study contributes by examining the role that nominal or real interest rates play in shaping housing prices in the USA. Moreover, given the recent significant upsurge in housing prices, this study presents a unique opportunity to investigate whether these price increases are influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions regarding nominal or real interest rates. Additionally, using monthly data, this study provides a deeper understanding of the fluctuations in housing prices and their connection to monetary policy tools.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 February 2023

Siti Hafsah Zulkarnain and Abdol Samad Nawi

The purpose of this study is to analyse numerous aspects affecting residential property price in Malaysia against macroeconomics issues such as gross domestic product (GDP)…

1068

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to analyse numerous aspects affecting residential property price in Malaysia against macroeconomics issues such as gross domestic product (GDP), exchange rate, unemployment and wage.

Design/methodology/approach

The hedonic pricing model has been adopted as econometric model for this research to investigate the relationship between residential property price against macroeconomics indicator. The data for residential property price and macroeconomic variables were collected from 1991 to 2019. Multiple linear regression had been adopted to find the relationship between the dependent and independent variables.

Findings

The result shows that the GDP has a significant positive impact on residential property price, while exchange rate has no significant impact although it was positive. In addition, the unemployment rate has a significant impact on the residential property price and has a negative relationship. Similar to the wage that shows the negative relationship with residential property prices. Moreover, during the pandemic COVID-19 in Malaysia, this research shows a more transparent view of the relationship between residential property price and the macroeconomic issues of GDP, exchange rate, unemployment and wage.

Originality/value

The findings of this research found that macroeconomics issue cannot be eliminated due to Malaysia is a developing country, and there will always be an issue that will happen, but the issues can be reduced to maximise the advantages, e.g. during COVID-19, the solution to fight against COVID-19 were crucial and weaken the macroeconomics issues.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 September 2022

Na Li and Rita Yi Man Li

This paper aims to provide a comprehensive bibliometric study of housing prices according to the articles collected by the Web of Science (WOS).

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to provide a comprehensive bibliometric study of housing prices according to the articles collected by the Web of Science (WOS).

Design/methodology/approach

This paper studies 4,125 research papers on housing prices in the core collection database of WOS. Using VOSviewer, this paper makes a bibliometric and visual analysis of the housing prices research from 1960 to 2020 and probes into the housing prices research from five aspects: time, international cooperation, institutions author cooperation and research focuses.

Findings

Keywords such as influencing factors of housing prices, analysis of supply and demand, policy and housing prices and regional cities appear frequently, which indicates the main direction of housing price research literature. Recent common keywords include regression analysis and house price forecast. Countries, like the USA started early in the study of housing prices, and the means and methods in the field of housing price research are mature, leading the forefront of housing price research. Compared with the USA and other Western developed countries, the housing price research in developing countries needs to use innovative research methods and put more effort on sustainability. Research shows that housing price is closely related to economy, and keyword cluster analysis shows that gross domestic product, interest rate, currency and other keywords related to economy are of high-frequency.

Research limitations/implications

This paper only uses articles from one database (WOS), which does not represent all research papers published worldwide. Some studies have been published for a long time, and the reference value to the research focuses and future research might be limited. There are many kinds of journals included in the study with different publishing frequencies, time ranges and numbers of papers. These may have some influence on the research results.

Originality/value

The main theoretical contribution of this paper is to supplement the current academic research on housing prices. This paper reveals the key points of housing prices research and possible research problems that need attention. We can know from the future research direction and practice which can offer insights for future innovative direction.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 January 2023

Amogelang Marope and Andrew Phiri

The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of electricity power outages on the local housing market in South Africa.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of electricity power outages on the local housing market in South Africa.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) and quantile autoregressive distributive lag (QARDL) models on annual time series data, for the period 1971–2014. The interest rate, real income and inflation were used as control variables to enable a multivariate framework.

Findings

The results from the ARDL model show that real income is the only factor influencing housing price over the long run, whereas other variables only have short-run effects. The estimates from the QARDL further reveal hidden cointegration relationship over the long run with higher quantile levels of distribution and transmission losses raising the residential price growth.

Research limitations/implications

Overall, the findings of this study imply that the South African housing market is more vulnerable to property devaluation caused by power outages over the short run and yet remains resilient to loadshedding over the long run. Other macro-economic factors, such as real income and inflation, are more influential factors towards long-run developments in the residential market.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to examine the empirical relationship between power outages and housing price growth.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 January 2024

Benjamin Kwakye and Tze-Haw Chan

The primary aim of this paper is to concurrently use the data types to enhance econometric analysis in the housing market in developing countries, particularly Namibia.

Abstract

Purpose

The primary aim of this paper is to concurrently use the data types to enhance econometric analysis in the housing market in developing countries, particularly Namibia.

Design/methodology/approach

Scholarly discussions on econometric analysis in the housing market in sub-Saharan Africa suggest that the inadequacy of time series data has impeded studies of such nature in the region. Hence, this paper aims to comparatively analyse the impact of economic fundamentals on house prices in Namibia using real and interpolated data from 1990 to 2021 supported by the ARDL model.

Findings

It was discovered that in all the three types of data house prices were affected by fundamentals except real GDP in the long term. It was also noted that there were not much significant variations between the real data and the interpolated data frequencies. However, the results of the annual data and the semi-annual interpolated data were more analogously comparable to the quarterly interpolated data

Practical implications

It is suggested that the adoption of interpolated data frequency type should be based on the statistical significance of the result. In addition, the need to monitor the nexus of the housing market and fundamentals is necessary for stable and sustainable housing market for enhanced policy direction and prudent property investment decision.

Originality/value

The study pioneer to concurrently use the data types to enhance econometric analysis in the housing market in developing countries.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

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