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The Russian export flow is highly concentrated on few trading partners that results in its high vulnerability to external shock. Furthermore, the Russian–Ukraine conflict and corresponding western sanctions has enhanced the need of export markets diversification for Russia. Therefore, this study is a baseline attempt to explore determinants of export flow along with identifying potential export markets. This objective is realized by employing an augmented version of gravity model on export flow of Russian Federation to 108 trading partners from 2000 to 2020.

The augmented gravity model of export flow is estimated by using employing contemporary panel econometrics such as panel generalized ordinary least square estimation technique with cross-sectional weight along with heteroskedasticity consistent white coefficients is employed to explore impact of selected macroeconomic and policy variables. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis is performed by using panel random effect along with the Driscoll–Kraay standard errors with pooled ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and random effect generalized least square (GLS) estimator techniques. The estimated result of panel GLS technique is subjected to in-sampled forecasting technique to explore potential export markets.

The findings show that an increase in the income of trading partners and enhancement of domestic production capacity has significant positive impact on Russian export flow, whereas geographic distance has a significant negative impact. Income of trading partners emerged as major determinant of export flow with high explanatory power. Among augmented variables, the real exchange rate reveals a significant positive impact of lower intensity, whereas binary variables for the common border, common history and preferential/free trade agreement show a significant positive impact. The finding of export potential reveals a high concentration of export with existence of large potential for exports across the globe. For instance, many developing countries in Asia, Africa and America reveal high potential for Russian exports.

The findings urge Russian Federation to diversify its export markets by targeting potential export markets. Many emerging developing countries are witnessing a high potential for Russian exports, therefore attempts should be taken to diversify toward them. The expansion of existing transportation facilities along with development of cargo trade can be important policy instrument to realize objective of export diversification.

This study is the first comprehensive analysis that employs augmented gravity model to explore potential export markets for Russian Federation by using panel data of 108 global trading partners from 2000 to 2020. This finding of this study provides a framework of export diversification toward potential markets across the globe.

The purpose of this paper is to describe and analyze the impacts that the recent proliferation of private and overlapping standards is having in the trade of agricultural products from developing countries.

In a first stage industry experts in the Chilean fresh fruit trading industry were interviewed to understand the perceived impact that private standards are imposing in the industry. These interviews allowed to identify the market case study, table grapes, the landscape of private standards and their prevalence in different countries. In a second stage, a gravity trade model for trade in table grapes was estimated, with a focus on the more stringent countries identified by experts in the first stage.

We show evidence that the proliferation of private standards required by large European retailers has diverted trade away from more stringent countries that require more certifications (and into less stringent European markets). We also show that the costs of these additional certifications have been shared by trading partners, via an increase in direct sales, as opposed to consignment (the traditional marketing mode), which is associated with higher prices.

The impacts of the recent proliferation of private and overlapping standards in international trade needs to be better understood both by the legal and economic literature. While the use of private standards has been growing since the 1990s, there is a recent trend of large European retailers imposing their own and overlapping standards that needs to be better understood to inform policy.

While there is a thin literature on the impact of private standards on trade, most of this has studied the effects of the now de facto mandatory GlobalGAP certification. However, there is a recent trend by large European retailers of demanding their own private certifications, together with other already existing overlapping private standards. This study describes and analyzes the impacts of this rather new trend.

The authors empirically examined the theoretically recognized industrial linkages between manufacturing and services from the trade perspective. In particular, they confirmed the trade effect of manufacturing on services, given that global value chain fragmentation pervades and splits manufacturing and services segments separately in developed and developing countries.

Based on observations of 47 countries with manufacturing and service trade data from 1990 to 2020 and with gravity model specification, the authors primarily used the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimation with multiple levels of fixed effects. Considering that many zero values are included in the dependent variable and potential endogeneity, other methods such as Tobit regression, Heckman estimation and two-stage least squares estimation (2SLS) are used. Subsample estimation also supplemented the empirical research.

The results showed that manufacturing trade is a stepping-stone rather than an obstacle to service trade. This finding exhibited significant robustness under different model specifications, instrumental variable estimation and subsample checks. Moreover, in contrast to the north–north country ties, manufacturing trade between northern and southern countries has played a prominent stepping-stone role; meanwhile, manufacturing trade among core–peripheral countries has a considerably more significant impact than the outcomes of core–core and peripheral–peripheral countries.

The authors provided direct clarification and revealed that trade in manufacturing remains the demand basis for service trade. As trade in manufacturing and services are typical phenomena of transnational production linkages, the authors suggested exploring the underlying role of global value chain (GVC) fragmentation and the offset and even barrier effect of biased institutional arrangements on GVC fragmentation.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the dynamic changes of the arms trade network not only from the network structure but also the influence mechanism from the aspects of the economy, politics, security, strategy and transaction costs.

The study employs the Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model and the Separable Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model to analyze the endogenous network structure effect, the attribute effect and the exogenous network effect of 47 major arms trading countries from 2015 to 2020.

The results show that the international arms trade market is unevenly distributed, and there are great differences in military technology. There is a fixed hierarchical structure in the arms trade, but the rise of emerging countries is expected to break this situation. In international arms trade relations, economic forces dominate, followed by political, security and strategic factors.

Economic and political factors play an important role in the arms trade. Therefore, countries should strive to improve their economic strength and military technology. Also, countries should increase political mutual trust and gain a foothold in the industrial chain of arms production to enhance their military power.

The contribution of this paper is to analyze the special trade area of arms trade from a dynamic network perspective by incorporating economic, political, security, strategic and transaction cost factors together into the TERGM and STERGM models.

This paper aims to analyze relative contribution of intensive margin (IM) and extensive margin (EM) to growth in India's agricultural exports for the period 2001 to 2020. It also analyses the determinants of IM and EMs through a standard gravity model.

The study uses export data from United Nations Comtrade, which is accessed through World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) software. Data for the period 2001 to 2020 were compiled for analysis using the Harmonized System (HS) of commodity classification system at the six-digit level. This study decomposed the contribution of IM and EM in the growth of Indian agricultural trade by using Hummels and Klenow's approach. After performing the export decomposition analysis, the authors analyze the factors influencing IM and EM by using the Tobit regression model and Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) method of estimation.

The EM grew at 1.24% per annum, while the intensive margin (IM) increased by 0.23%. The contribution of growth at the EM increased from 58.8% in 2001 to 70.2% in 2020. Export growth along the IM was relatively high for animal products and agricultural raw materials, while growth at the EM was an important contributor to the export growth of horticultural and processed agricultural products. There was a positive and significant effect of the free trade agreement (FTA) on export margins.

More disaggregated commodity-specific studies on value chain analysis would provide valuable insights into the issues hindering exports and realizing the untapped export potential.

There is a scarcity of holistic and recent studies illustrating the role of IM and EMs in agricultural trade growth, covering a large number of commodities and geographies associated with Indian agricultural trade. The study would be helpful to the stakeholders in facilitating informed policy decisions.

The discourse on global value chains (GVC) is undergoing a transformation in terms of its conceptualisation, theorisation and pragmatic applications. Today, the production systems have become more complex as global economic order continues to witness marked geo-economic manoeuvring. Thus, the direction of discourse on GVC ought to move from mere theoretical propositions toward becoming more evidence based. There have been recent studies that have used the governance and upgrading propositions by Gary Gereffi and others to seek quantitative evidence. This study aims to decipher the quantitative discourse on GVC and to set the emerging and future research agenda.

Through a systematic literature review, the authors first analyse the quantitative studies on GVC carried out during the last two decades. The authors then outline a future research agenda and examine a few relevant modelling techniques that could potentially be used to solicit newer evidence in GVC research.

The authors categorise the quantitative discourse on GVC into three crucial themes, namely, GVC framework, GVC participation and position, environmental aspects and regionalisation in GVC. The most commonly used quantitative techniques are gravity model, panel data estimation, structural decomposition analysis and computable general equilibrium modelling.

This paper contributes to the GVC discourse in two ways. Firstly, the authors argue that the theoretical frameworks within the GVC discourse should be complemented by evidence-based quantitative studies. Secondly, the authors suggest potential modelling techniques that can be used on the emerging and future research agenda.

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of political relations on trade in strategic emerging industries (SEIs) in the Belt and Road initiative (BRI) associated countries. This investigation encompasses not only from the perspective of bilateral political relations but also the political intervention of third parties.

The study employs the temporal exponential random graphmodel to analyze the dynamic structure and influencing factor of SEIs trade network among 150 BRI-associated countries from 2015 to 2020.

The results indicate that the trade of SEIs in the BRI-associated countries exhibits a pattern of concentrated exporters and decentralized importers. Amicable bilateral political relations foster trade cooperations in SEIs, while political pressure from the United States has the opposite effect. Furthermore, compared with the influence of third parties, the BRI has created a more robust trade environment characterized by political mutual trust.

BRI-associated countries should strengthen their political communication, and endeavor to transform political consensus and shared vision into concrete collaborative projects, while mitigating geopolitical uncertainties through a sound risk evaluation system. Moreover, they should establish a more transparent and consistent consultation mechanism and leverage the BRI trade network to foster balanced and mutually beneficial partnerships that minimize rivalry and dependence on a single market.

This study goes beyond observed trade cost and incorporates the political factor into the determinants of the BRI trade, thereby expanding the theoretical boundaries of existing BRI research. Also, this study employs bilateral trade data to construct SEIs trade networks (SEITNs) along the BRI route. It provides a comprehensive understanding of the dynamic determinates of the SEITNs will provide valuable practical guidance for enhancing and expanding trade and cooperation among BRI-associated countries.

This paper aims to offer the first known synthesis of peer-reviewed literature on trade-based money laundering (TBML). Given the topic is in its nascent stage yet gaining prominence across scholarship and practice, this foundation is pertinent for future TBML research.

A systematic literature review was undertaken with a formulaic search string. Both qualitative (thematic) and quantitative (meta) analysis methods were used to illustrate the findings.

The systematic literature review, using qualitative and quantitative synthesis, led to a thematic categorization of extant TBML literature into four categories: TBML risk assessment, TBML detection, the role of professionals and understanding of TBML. Due to the limited number of studies, insights that can be drawn from the extant literature on the best way to combat TBML are also limited.

As the first systematic literature review on TBML, this study identified that the existing TBML literature has focused on increasing the understanding of the phenomenon in terms of its definition and mechanisms, detection, linkage with other crimes, such as organized crime and terrorism financing, and risk assessment frameworks. The originality of these findings lies in identifying areas future researchers might explore to broaden the academic literature.

It is widely argued that money laundering (ML) is not a new phenomenon and the pervasiveness of ML is associated with some severe economic, social and political costs. Due to the lack of studies on the ML’s issue in the UAE, this study aims to examine the determinants of ML in the country between 1975 and 2020.

The autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing results demonstrate the presence of long-run relationship between ML and the selected macroeconomics variables. The analysis is validated by the dynamic ordinary least squares, the fully modified ordinary least squares and the canonical co-integration regression estimators.

The estimation result reveals that while the real estate market, outflow of money, arms procurement and size of the underground economy influences the size of ML positively, gold trade, the level of financial development and the size of economic activities are negatively associated with ML, both in the short- and long-run.

Up to date from a country-level analysis, no study has been devoted to the ML in UAE, except for Aljassmi et al. (2023). To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to investigate the determinants of laundered money in the UAE economy. Based on these outcomes, strategies and measures which will deter the laundering of illicit funds through the real estate and gold market, remittance system, financial system and arms procurement contracts in the UAE are recommended.

This study aims to investigate how the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Chinese outward foreign direct investments (FDI) impact the Belt and Road countries (BRCs). It draws on postcolonial theory to investigate the (geo)political objectives behind the financial and economic means.

In line with the nature of postcolonial studies, the study applies a discourse analysis integrating it with empirical data on indebtedness and trade.

This study finds that FDI and the BRI, as a development project, need to be considered a double-edged sword for the receiving countries. The authors provide evidence that China has instrumentalized financial and economic means to gain political influence and pursue geopolitical ambitions. Moreover, investments into sensitive sectors (e.g. energy, infrastructure), combined with the BRCs’ inability to pay back loans, could eventually lead to China gaining control of these assets.

The study investigates the financial and economic means that are instrumentalized to gain political influence while not considering flows of technology and know-how. It also limits itself to the study of FDI coming from one specific country, i.e. China. Therefore, no comparison and evaluation are made of FDI from other countries, such as the USA or European countries.

By revealing noncommercial objectives and geopolitical ambitions that China pursues through the BRI, the authors derive policy implications for the BRCs, third countries and China.

The study contributes to postcolonial theory and neocolonialism by investigating how China uses financial and economic means to achieve noncommercial objectives and pursue geopolitical ambitions. Additionally, the authors enhance the understanding of FDI by highlighting more subtle aspects of the complex and contextual nature of FDI as a social phenomenon, which have been overlooked thus far. The authors challenge the predominant positive framing of FDI and provide a counterpoint to the way FDI is often coined.