Search results

This paper analyzes the gold Murabahah contract, which tends to be very popular in the Indonesian Islamic banking industry. As the contract is very sensitive to the gold price movement and speculative motive, a comprehensive assessment is done to assess the behavior of the gold price movement, behavior of the investors and the limits of the gold Murabahah contract. It proposes recommendations to manage the gold Murabahah contract and to mitigate its potential risks.

The paper examines the gold price, termination of contract and limitation of the amount of funds in the gold Murabahah transactions by using quantitative formulas, such as variance, expected prices and probability of occurrence. In addition, it includes a qualitative analysis of the historical pattern of daily gold prices in the past 12 years. As such, a combination of both approaches generates a comprehensive analysis and recommendations to policymakers, Islamic bankers and investors.

It finds some interesting outcomes with regard to the behavior of gold prices, behavior of investors regarding the gold Murabahah contract and intention of investors to terminate gold Murabahah contracts prior to their maturity date. Such outcomes become the material for the policy recommendations of the paper. Particularly, it proposes the margin of the Murabahah gold contract, tenor of the contract, down payment and a review of the base gold Murabahah regulation to manage the gold Murabahah contract and to mitigate risks.

The paper does not consider macroeconomic variables such as inflation, exchange rate and economic growth which may affect the movement of the world’s gold prices. It does not examine the gold Murabahah contract in other countries, as it is believed that the gold Murabahah contract is very popular only in the Indonesian Islamic banking industry.

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first paper examines the gold Murabahah contract in relation to the Indonesian Islamic banking industry.

When facing a clouded global economy, many countries would increase their gold reserves. On the other hand, oil supply and demand depends on the political and economic situations of oil producing countries and their production technologies. Both oil and gold reserve play important roles in the economic development of a country. The paper aims to discuss this issue.

This paper uses the historical data of oil and gold prices as research data, and uses the historical price tendency charts of oil and gold, as well as cluster analysis, to discuss the correlation between the historical data of oil and gold prices. By referring to the technical index equation of stocks, the technical indices of oil and gold prices are calculated as the independent variable and the closing price as the dependent variable of the forecasting model.

The findings indicate that there is no obvious correlation between the price tendencies of oil and gold. According to five evaluating indicators, the MFOAGRNN forecast model has better forecast ability than the other three forecasting models.

This paper explored the correlation between oil and gold prices, and built oil and gold prices forecasting models. In addition, this paper proposes a modified FOA (MFOA), where an escape parameter Δ is added to Si. The findings showed that the forecasting model that combines MFOA and GRNN has the best ability to forecast the closing price of oil and gold.

This study aims to assess how real income, oil prices and gold prices affect housing prices in China from 2010 to 2021.

This study uses a novel bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) testing to empirically analyze the short and long links among the tested variables.

The ARDL estimations demonstrate a positive impact of oil price shocks and real income on housing market prices in both the phrases of the short and long run. Furthermore, the results reveal that gold price shocks negatively affect housing prices both in the short and long run. The result can be attributed to China’s housing market and advanced infrastructure, resulting in a drop in housing prices as gold prices increase. Additionally, the prediction of housing market prices will provide a base and direction for housing market investors to forecast housing prices and avoid losses.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to analyze the effect of gold price shocks on housing market prices in China.

This paper investigates the causality among gold prices, crude oil prices, bitcoin and stock prices by using daily data from January 2014 to December 2021. The study also examines the data during the COVID-19 outbreak from January 2020 to December 2021.

To estimate the long- and short-run causality, this study considers the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) cointegration test.

The analysis found the existence of an asymmetric long-run cointegration among selected assets. Findings indicate that positive changes in bitcoin do not affect stock market in the long term. Changes in crude oil prices have a significant impact on stock prices. Moreover, it is observed that variations in the stock prices trigger a negative impact on gold prices. During the COVID-19 period, the study notices the presence of an asymmetric long-term cointegration between selected assets except bitcoin. Besides, findings revealed that negative price adjustments in gold lead to significant positive shocks in stock market.

These results provide critical information for policy performers and researchers to develop new strategies. Policy regulators can also consider the potential effects of the COVID-19 outbreak while developing strategies for investment decisions.

Crude oil, gold and interest rates are some of the key indicators of the health of domestic as well as global economy. The purpose of the study is to find the shock volatility and price volatility effects of gold and crude oil market on interest rates in India.

This study finds the mutual and directional association of the volatility of gold, crude oil and interest rates in India. The bi-variate GARCH models (Diagonal VEC GARCH and BEKK GARCH) are applied on the sample data of gold price, crude oil price and yield (interest rate) gathered from November 30, 2015 to November 16, 2020 (weekly basis) to investigate the volatility association including the volatility spillover effect in the three markets.

The main findings of the study focus on having a long-term conditional correlation between gold and interest rates, but there is no evidence of volatility spillover from gold and crude oil on the interest rates. The findings of the study are of great importance especially to the policymakers, as they state that the fluctuations in prices of gold and crude oil do not adversely impact the interest rates in India. Therefore, the fluctuations in prices of gold and crude may generally impact the economy, but it has nothing to do with interest rate in particular. This implies that domestic and foreign investments in the country will not be affected by gold and crude oil that are largely driven by interest rates in the country.

Gold and crude oil are two very important commodities that have their importance not only for domestic affairs but also for international business. They veritably influence the economy including forex exchange for any nation. In addition to this, the researchers believe the findings will provide insights to policymakers, stakeholders and investors.

Gold and crude oil undoubtedly influence the exchange rates but their impact on the interest rates in an economy is not definite and remains ambiguous owing to the mixed findings of the studies. The lack of studies related to the impact of gold and crude oil on the interest rates, despite them being essentials for the health of any economy is the main motivation of this study. This study is novel as it investigates the volatility impact of crude oil and gold on interest rates and contributes to the existing literature with its findings.

This study aims to propose the idea of which macro-factors and how the macro-factors impact on the gold price.

An EGARCH model is applied to test the volatility of gold price. A VAR method is applied to validate the idea by decomposing gold's value into three parts according to its features.

Three macro-factors have significant impact on the gold's price. The USDX index is negatively correlated with the gold price, while the CRB index and the US Treasury CDS spreads are positively correlated with the gold price. In particular, it is found that the one-lagged CRB index, one-lagged USDX index, and two-lagged US Treasury CDS spreads have significant impact on the gold price.

The findings in this study suggest a normal case of the gold price. However, in particular cases, new models or new parameters may need to be introduced.

This paper bridges the gap between theory and practice on the gold pricing model. The three-factor model can be used for trading in the field of gold investment.

This paper provides a composite idea for investors and researchers to study the gold price.

The purpose of the study is to find out the impact of gold and oil prices on the stock market.

This study uses the data on gold prices, stock exchange and oil prices for the period 1991–2016. This study applied descriptive statistics, augmented Dickey–Fuller test, correlation and autoregressive distributed lag test.

The data analysis results showed that gold and oil prices have a significant impact on the stock market.

Following empirical evidence of this study, the authors recommend that investors should invest in gold because the main reason is that hike in inflation reduces the real value of money, and people seek to invest in alternative investment avenues like gold to preserve the value of their assets and earn additional returns. This suggests that investment in gold can be used as a tool to decline inflation pressure to a sustainable level. This study was restricted to use small sample data owing to the availability of data from 1991 to 2017 and could not use structural break unit root tests with two structural break and structural break cointegration approach, as these tests require high-frequency data set.

This study provides information to the investors who want to get the benefit of diversification by investing in gold, oil and stock market. In the current era, gold prices and oil prices are fluctuating day by day, and investors think that stock returns may or may not be affected by these fluctuations. This study is unique because it focusses on current issues and takes the current data in this research to help investment institutions or portfolio managers.

The purpose of this paper is to examine, in a global perspective, the oil, gold, US dollar and stock prices interdependencies and to identify instantaneously direct and indirect linkages among them.

A methodology based on simultaneous equations system was used to identify direct and indirect linkages for the period 1995-2015. The authors try initially to find theoretical answers to main question of the study by discussing causal bilateral relationships while focusing on multilateral interactions.

The results show significant interactions between all markets. The authors found a negative relation between oil and stock prices but oil price is significantly and positively affected by gold and USD. Oil price is also affected by oil futures prices and by Chinese oil gross imports. Gold rate is concerned by changes in oil, USD and stock markets. The US dollar is negatively affected by stock market and significantly by oil and gold price. Indirect effects always exist which confirm the presence of global interdependencies and involve the financialization process of commodity markets.

Motivation of this research paper is the substantial implications of price movements on real economy and financial markets. Understanding that co-movement has great value for investors, policy makers and portfolio managers. This paper differs from previous studies in several aspects. First, most of the research papers focus on bilateral linkages solely, while the authors’ investigation was implemented on all the four markets simultaneously. Second, the study was developed in a global framework using international data. The global analysis allows avoiding country specific effects.

This study purposes to measure the influencing relations between macroeconomic indicators and the prices of gold. Further study measures several factors with the gold price in the context of the United States.

The secondary data are collected to measure relationship and fluctuation of gold prices the data collected from the website world development indicators (WDI) for the period of 31 years 1990–2019. This paper uses different econometric analysis such as analytical unit root test for stationary of data, descriptive statistical analysis for description of data, correlation coefficient test for measuring the inter correlation, and ordinary least square regression analysis for determine the impact of dependent and independents variables. In this research paper, gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rate (IR), unemployment rate (UR), real interest rate (RIR), gross national product (GNP), standard trade value (STV) are included in macroeconomic indicators and consider as independent. The gold prices are considered as dependent variable.

This study's overall results show an important and optimistic association between GDP, IR and STV with the gold price. Moreover, the RIR shows negative and does not show significant relation with the gold prices.

Since several economic crises were included during the data selection studied in this research paper, data error may be present, resulting in the instability of the overall data. However, the study still hopes to find the guiding role of these macro gold price factors in the price of gold from the limited data set. The basic scope of research is that research is limited in the United States.

The purpose of this paper is to research and analyze the price of gold futures based on heterogeneous investors' overconfidence.

This paper divides the traders of gold futures market into two kinds: the speculators and arbitrageurs, and then constructs a market equilibrium model of futures pricing to analyze the behaviors of the two kinds of traders with overconfidence. After getting the decision-making function, the market equilibrium futures price is attained on the condition of market clearing. Then, this paper analyzes how the overconfidence impacts on futures price, volatility of the price of gold futures and the effects on individual utility.

Under different market conditions, the overconfidence psychological impacts of heterogeneous investor on the price and volatility of futures are different, sometimes completely opposite.

In the past literature, the relationships between overconfidence and the price or volatility are positive; however, the study shows that sometimes it is positive, and sometimes it is negative.