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Foresight J's journey started in 1999, and in 2022, it marked the conclusion of its 24 years of publication. This paper aims to provide an overall overview of important research trends published in Foresight J between 1999 and 2022 by conducting a quantitative analysis of the journal’s literature. The overarching goal is to provide valuable insights into the dynamics of scholarly communication, aiding researchers, institutions and policymakers in assessing the significance and influence of academic work, guiding future research directions and academic evaluation.

The two bibliometrics methodologies that make up the methodology of this article are scientific mapping and performance analysis. Authors have explained the development and composition of the Foresight J using these methods. The SCOPUS database is being used in current research to analyse several dimensions, such as the evolution of publications by year, the most cited papers, core authors and researchers, leading countries and prolific institutions. Moreover, the conceptual structure, scope, burst detection and co-occurrence analysis of the journal are mapped using network visualization software such as VOSviewer, CiteSpace and RStudio.

With a strong track record of output over the years, Foresight J has continued to develop in terms of publications. It is determined that “Saritas” is the author with the greatest overall impact. However, according to SCOPUS bibliometric data, “Blackman” and “Richardson” are the authors with the greatest relevance in terms of the quantity of articles. In addition, it becomes apparent that the USA, Australia and the UK are very productive nations in terms of publications. The most popular fields of the journal have always been forecasting, foresight, scenario planning, strategic planning, decision-making, technology and sustainable development. These are also the author keywords that appear the most frequently. In contrast, new study themes in the Foresight J include digital technologies, innovation, sustainability, blockchain, artificial intelligence and sustainability.

Several noteworthy research implications are provided by the bibliometric study of Foresight J. “Saritas” is the author with the most overall impact, indicating that the precise contributions and influence of this researcher in the fields of forecasting, foresight and related fields. Given that “Blackman” and “Richardson” are well-known writers, it is also critical to examine the scope and complexity of their contributions to potentially identify recurring themes or patterns in their writing. The geographic productivity results, which show that the USA, Australia and the UK are the top three countries for Foresight J publications, may encourage more research into regional differences, patterns of collaboration and the worldwide distribution of research endeavours in the context of forecasting and foresight. Popular fields including scenario planning, forecasting, foresight and sustainable development are consistent, indicating persistent research interests. Examining the causes of these subjects’ ongoing relevance can reveal information about the consistency and development of scholarly interests over time.

Foresight J’s bibliometric analysis has real-world applications for many stakeholders. It helps editors and publishers make strategic decisions about outreach and content by providing insights regarding the journal’s influence. Assessing organizational and author productivity helps institutions allocate resources more effectively. Policymakers acquire an instrument to evaluate research patterns and distribute funds efficiently. In general, bibliometric study of a journal helps decisionmakers in academic publishing make well-informed choices that maximize the potential of options for authors, editors, institutions and policymakers.

The societal ramifications of bibliometrically analysing Foresight J from 1999 and 2022 are substantial. This analysis highlights, over the past 24 years, research trends, technological developments and societal priorities have changed by methodically looking through the journal’s articles. Gaining knowledge about the academic environment covered by the journal can help raise public awareness of important topics and promote critical thinking. In addition, the analysis can support evidence-based decision-making by alerting decision makers to the influential research that was published in Foresight J. This could have an impact on the course of policies pertaining to innovation, technology and societal development.

This study presents a first comprehensive article that provides a general overview of the main trends and patterns of the research over the Foresight J’s history since its inception. Also, the paper will help the scientific community to know the value and impact of Foresight J.

The purpose of this study is to develop an integrated approach to evaluating corporate foresight (CF) studies at all stages of its implementation and to test this approach using the example of a Russian state-owned corporation.

The use of foresight by companies as a part of their strategic activities is growing but still rather limited. To increase the effectiveness of foresight at the corporate level and ensure its justification, special approaches and criteria for its evaluation should be developed. To develop the approach to evaluation of CF which would be useful at all stages of foresight realization, at first, the authors focused the authors’ attention on identification of main challenges, problem and barriers, which arise during foresight process on the one hand, and exploring success factors and lessons learnt from different case studies on the other hand. On the basis of this literature analysis, the authors have formed a long list of evaluation criteria, which reflect accumulated experience in the field and all-important aspects to make foresight project successful and effective. On the next step, the authors related these criteria with stages of foresight realization and evaluation category. For pilot testing of this methodology, the authors used a case of Russian state-owned corporation.

This paper has presented an integrated approach to the evaluation of CF projects. The logic of the evaluation process of CF at all stages of its implementation is proposed; key evaluation topics (concept, objectives, project team, design of the project, project methodology, stakeholders, implementation, resources, results and its dissemination, effects and impact and barriers) are identified, and the corresponding sets of criteria are formed.

The originality of the work lies in using a wide experience of national foresight studies evaluation for corporations. The suggested approach could be used as a framework for CF evaluation. It was tested on the Russian state-owned company RussX.

Indigenous knowledge is an essential element for unveiling the evolutionary journey of socio-culture phenomena. One of the key challenges in foresight exercises is to incorporate social-culture issues such as culture, lifestyle and behavior (referred as indigenous knowledge) into the study. However, the statistical trends of those factors tend to be either not available or limited unlike the population or economic related factors. The purpose of this study is to present the use of valuable data from indigenous knowledge to enhance the foresight exercise through the better understanding of social dynamics and changes.

The fragmented form of indigenous knowledge is analyzed and converted into a structured data format and then interpreted to unveil the evolutionary journey of socio-cultural phenomena. This study applies a scenario development method to visualize the results of foresight by comparing before and after the integration of indigenous knowledge. Finally, an assessment was conducted to reflect the value enhancement resulting from the integration of indigenous knowledge into the foresight process.

With the proposed approach, the foresight study on the future development of Thai food was demonstrated. The findings of this study show that the use of indigenous knowledge on eating behavior, cooking style and food flavor helps improve the alternative scenarios for the future development of Thai foods.

Indigenous knowledge can be applied to develop plausible scenarios and future images in foresight exercises. However, by nature, indigenous knowledge is not well-structured and, therefore, needs to be analyzed and turned into structured data so that it can be interpreted before integrating into the foresight process.

This study is one of few studies addressing the opportunities for integrating indigenous knowledge into foresight process. Indigenous knowledge can unveil the evolution of socio-cultural changes to improve the results of foresight study, especially the cases where statistical data and trends may not be sufficient to foresee future development.

The purpose of this study is to propose an innovative and efficient process in urban policy-making that combines a divergent and creative method with a convergent and strategic one. At the same time, the purpose is also to propose a useful innovation to enforce the usability of both methods. On the one hand, mission-oriented policies run the risk of being overly focused on the present and of not being able to develop preparedness in organization. On the other hand, scenario development has the reverse problem it often does not point out how to use scenario narratives to inform and devise short-term strategic actions.

The paper proposes an innovative methodological approach, the mission-oriented scenarios, which hybridizes Mazzucato's mission-oriented public policy framework with Jim Dator's Manoa school four futures method. The proposed methodological innovation emerges from a urban foresight academic-led project carried out in the context of the Metropolitan City of Turin, Italy, where a first application of the mission-oriented scenarios was tested on six different focal issues (from reindustrialization to cultural policies) and the scenario narratives were used as sources for the grounding of 12 missions and 48 strategic actions towards 2030.

Mission-oriented scenarios can contribute to the generation of more sustainable and inclusive urban public policies. This methodological proposal is based on an original mix of knowledge exchange procedures borrowed from methodological approaches with different backgrounds: the mission-oriented and the archetypal scenarios. Their conjunction could support the formulation of ambitious yet pragmatic policies, giving a plurality of actors the opportunity to act and establish fruitful and lasting partnerships.

The paper reconstructs one of the first urban foresight projects carried out in a major Italian city by two prestigious universities and exposes a methodological innovation resulting from reflection on the strengths and weaknesses of the project, which opens the door to the development of a new scenario technique.

This paper aims to: first, it studies expert opinions about the future of clean, decentralized energy technology in Australia; second, develop an interpretive and participatory foresighting methodology for a forthcoming study.

This paper reports a forecasting study about the future of clean energy. Driven mostly by economics and changing carbon policies, the energy sector is currently moving from fossil fuels to a variety of cleaner technologies. Energy experts have several incommensurate interpretations of how this change will happen. This paper describes the first phase of an ongoing study that foresight clean energy futures in Australia. By building on a participatory method in a scientific expert community, it describes the path from technological presumptions into four parallel yet interconnected scenarios. The paper also explores the social drivers behind these scenarios.

First, energy experts in Australia classify futures into four main scenarios: abundant, where energy will be mostly produced by solar cells; traded, where the future of energy lies in virtual power plants and microgrids; circular, which targets Australia’s NetZero goals through biomaterials, carbon capture and new powerful; secure, which secures the country’s energy supply through coal and nuclear energy. Second, they locate policy as the most important form of wildcards. The policy is multilayered from local to US politics and falls outside the scope of forecasting.

The most important limitations of the study are: first, its reliance on scientific and technological experts, which guarantees its scientific validity but may underrepresent the social drivers of energy; second, this study is a methodological pilot of a larger study that will target industrial, commercial and local drivers; third, its focus on Australia, where politics, the size of the country and climate shape the uptake of clean energy in specific ways, most notably in the case of rapid uptake of solar energy.

The main practical implications of the paper are its broad focus on clean energy futures and its participatory foresighting approach, which can be repeated in other studies.

The main social implication of the study is that it clearly shows that a technological perspective is necessary but not sufficient in understanding the future of clean energy. The paper also shows that local drivers importantly mold the future and should be taken into account in future studies and policy.

This paper makes two contributions. First, it organizes several technologies into four scenarios that clarify Australia’s clean energy futures better than a piecemeal study would do. Second, it developed and piloted an interpretive participatory methodology for studying futures by building on references from design research. This methodology will be used in subsequent studies.

Although crowd logistics (CL) is a promising digital solution, its future development remains uncertain. This paper aims to suggest multiple possible futures of CL in terms of business relationships and value co-creation between manufacturers and digital platforms.

This paper offers a systemic and multistakeholder approach related to the field of strategic foresight, based on the scenario method. The scenarios construction involved 22 participants (practitioners, academic researchers and foresight experts).

Four scenarios emerged from the strategic foresight study. For each scenario, the configuration, diffusion and coordination of CL – as well as the balance of power between manufacturers, digital platforms and customers – are specified.

The foresight analysis reveals not one certain future, but multiple potential business configurations and research avenues related to the development of CL.

The adopted multistakeholders perspective, including macro factors, regarding CL allows business-to-business (B2B) managers to rethink its potential. Managers can use the scenarios to consider multiple types of coordination with digital platforms and its implication for value co-creation.

This paper provides insights into social changes that may constitute drivers and consequences of the development of CL and identifies two forms of coupling that may drive the development of CL: regulation–social transformation and technology–environment.

This research contributes to IMP research on B2B relationships in digital contexts, by showing that CL presents an opportunity for the co-creation of distribution value in a B2B environment.

Due to the limitations of conventional urban planning, it is essential to develop novel techniques of urban futruing. This paper aimed to use the scenario technique to create four plausible narratives of the future of Isfahan. Also, the authors described the problems of city foresight in the Global South.

This paper chronicles the Schwartzian steps taken to build explorative scenarios of Isfahan City in Iran in 2040. After using a STEEPV (Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, Political, Value) analysis, the authors prioritized the collected variables by combining influence diagrams, the iceberg metaphor and an expert-based survey. Once the key uncertainties were derived, four scenarios were developed and discussed.

Through thematic analysis of the official visions of Isfahan’s future and the juxtaposition of these narratives with insight yielded in the scenario-development process, the paper concludes that the Northernness of the prevailing urban imaginaries, uncritical mimetic benchmarking, depoliticization of urban futures and the decorative reductionistic visions colonize urban futures in Isfahan/Iran. Critical/deconstructive city foresight and application of discomfort/ignorance criteria in the generation of scenarios can improve the rigor and quality of city foresight in the Global South.

The application of city foresight in the Global South has been limited. The paper is a step toward bridging this gap and providing some recommendations on how city foresight in the Global South might differ from its counterparts in the Global North.

COVID-19 pandemic has significantly influenced human society; statistics have shown many countries ended 2020 with minimal or even negative economic growth. This pandemic proved that development biased to economic issues without considering other factors such as social and environmental is not sustainable, and it can even be the source of the crisis. This paper aims to discover plausible alternative futures at the macrolevel where nations, businesses and societies can change routines, and approach to a better peaceful future.

To accomplish this, trends emerged after the COVID-19 pandemic are studied and some uncertainties are identified. At the intersections of uncertainties, scenarios are shaped based on the Global Business Network (GBN) methodology. GBN helps to draw macrolevel images about plausible futures. The main uncertainties rose from three different but interconnected natures including: approach to the globalization (social perspective), approach to the concept of value (business perspective) and approach to the governance (states/governance perspective). Each uncertainty can take two extreme alternatives; consequently, eight scenario spaces with different probability are formed by the intersection of alternatives. Then the most favorable scenario is introduced and strategies are proposed to achieve a better future.

In the current paradigm in which countries will sacrifice the environment for economic growth in the race to rapidly rebuild their economy, concerns for the post-COVID-19 will continue to mount. While, in the favorable scenario, value creation is sought in sustainable development. This means deviation from a favorable scenario to achieve short-term goals is completely predictable. Although we have learned that the COVID-19 pandemic is controllable and manageable as time goes by, but no effort or commitment has been seen in the governments to eradicate the COVID-19 sources (at least till today).

The main originality of this research appeared in the practical aspect. This paper analyzes and projects scenarios at the global level and studies challenges that societies, governments and businesses are facing in the modern world with biased development paradigms. Moreover, different viewpoints to deal with global crisis are assessed and criticized.

This paper aims to discuss the complexities and foresight of Mars colonization. There are many pioneers competing in a space race to Mars, for example, Elon Musk – SpaceX, Jeff Bezos – Blue Origin and Richard Branson – Virgin Orbit. The analyses are focused on the aerospace industry – the process of space adventures to Mars.

This study offers new methodological approaches – the development of a complexity metric and system innovation mode – to analyze how the complexities relate to the systemic nature of innovation. The complexity metric and system innovation model can be applied in various industries. These analysis tools can help gain insights into the strategies for achieving the diffusion of commercial space.

The analyses of findings have shown that, despite various attempts among the pioneers in a space race to colonize Mars (Elon Musk – SpaceX, Jeff Bezos – Blue Origin and Richard Branson – Virgin Orbit, among others), the aerospace industry has not yet reached a stage of commercialization. The commercial space to Mars is of low systemic nature at present. Many companies compete in a space race to develop technologies on a proprietary basis. However, the highest complexity level suggests a multinational and intergovernmental collaboration to achieve economies of scale and economies of scope as well as accelerate the process of technology diffusion – successful commercial space for the interplanetary settlement.

The main contribution that shows originality and value of this paper is the development of a complexity metric and system innovation model which can be used to explore how the complexities relate to the systemic nature of innovation and how they relate to the strategies in managing technological innovations. The new methodological approaches can be used and applied to various industries.

Scenario planning is a useful approach that helps policymakers to better understand the complexity and uncertainties that lie in the future and to choose the right policy mix to support the development of renewable and affordable energy sources. In this regard, this paper aims to present renewable energy (RE) development scenarios in Iran in the horizon of 2030.

Following the intuitive logic school and the Global Business Network model, the authors identified seven driving forces, according to the expert’s judgment, by brainstorming techniques which influence REs development in the horizon of 2030. By prioritizing driving forces based on their importance and uncertainty, “sustainable and green economy” and “emerging technology development” are the most instrumental uncertainties and the authors formed a two-axis scenario matrix with each representing an axis.

The results suggest four main scenarios of “Transition to Sustainability with Green Gold,” “Towards Sustainability with Green Gold,” “Productivity with Black Gold” and “Desperation with Black Gold.” They include a wide range of possible situations of energy basket in the future ranging from dominance of fossil fuels to dominance of REs. The “Productivity with Black Gold” and the “Towards Sustainability with Green Gold” are the most probable scenarios of RE development by 2030 in Iran.

This paper indicates that the dominance of oil and gas resources would impede or at least slow down the development of renewable and affordable energy sources. Although the economic and environmental potentials and the inevitability of REs are well-understood, path dependence created by fossil fuels in Iran’s energy regime, either partially or fully, hinders the widespread development of REs which is the case in other resource-based countries as well.