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1 – 10 of 833A controversy about whether liberalization through market opening is a necessary and sufficient condition for a stable and balanced growth in the developing countries was…
Abstract
A controversy about whether liberalization through market opening is a necessary and sufficient condition for a stable and balanced growth in the developing countries was retriggered by the 2008 global financial crisis. This paper aims to analyze 1) the impact of market openness on the economic growth and financial development, 2) the dynamic correlation between the compositional change in foreign investments and the returns of domestic financial markets, 3) the effect of foreign portfolio investment on the stock market activity (liquidity and profitability). Our empirical findings infer that the income level has a positive relationship with financial openness and the foreign portfolio investments cause price fluctuations in the domestic stock market. These results imply that the precautionary and effective policies such as prudential regulations on the short-term capital transactions are strongly needed to emerging markets in order to prevent the excessive fluctuations in the financial markets over the macroeconomic fundamentals.
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The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of shocks in the various components of private capital inflows on economic growth in Nigeria using quarterly data in the period…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of shocks in the various components of private capital inflows on economic growth in Nigeria using quarterly data in the period 1986Q1–2016Q4.
Design/methodology/approach
The study employs the impulse response function and the forecast error variance decomposition of the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model.
Findings
The research result shows that shocks in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and portfolio investment inflows have a positive and significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. In addition, FDIs accounted for significant variation in the growth of the Nigerian economy followed by portfolio investments, while personal remittances exerted the least variation in growth.
Practical implications
The government should promote a favorable macroeconomic environment for existing and potential foreign investors to ensure the continued inflows of FDI and portfolio investment.
Originality/value
The novelty of this study lies in disaggregating private capital inflows and analyzing the effect of the shock of each component on the growth of the Nigerian economy using SVAR.
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Most of the major Islamic countries’ stock exchanges have not been able to perform at the same pace with the major emerging countries’ stock exchanges since the mid of 1990s. The…
Abstract
Purpose
Most of the major Islamic countries’ stock exchanges have not been able to perform at the same pace with the major emerging countries’ stock exchanges since the mid of 1990s. The purpose of this paper is to examine the implications of stock market liberalization on cost of capital as one of the crucial driver to stock market development and physical investment growth in emerging Islamic countries.
Design/methodology/approach
This study employs static panel data techniques on the sample of seven emerging Islamic countries over the years 1989-2008.
Findings
The findings of this study suggest that stock market liberalization significantly reduces cost of capital in the stock markets of sample Islamic countries, which carries policy-oriented implications. Reduction in the cost of capital increases the number of exchange-traded companies, profitability of projects and aggregate investment level; therefore, the study findings are highly concerned by the economic policymakers, corporations and investors alike.
Research limitations/implications
In the literature, different proxies are employed to measure stock market liberalization and cost of capital as well. Due to data limitations, this study could not employ different proxies for both, especially for stock market liberalization, for robustness purpose. That limitation further restricted the coverage of Islamic stock markets and time period. Therefore, generalization of the study results for overall Islamic stock markets can be slightly drawn.
Originality/value
The paper provides further understanding regarding the effects of SML on cost of capital, thereby indirectly on the stock market development, in the context of EIC.
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Nombulelo Braiton and Nicholas M. Odhiambo
The purpose of the paper is to examine macroeconomic and institutional factors that influence capital flows to low-income sub-Saharan African (SSAn) countries. It analyzes capital…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of the paper is to examine macroeconomic and institutional factors that influence capital flows to low-income sub-Saharan African (SSAn) countries. It analyzes capital flows in a disaggregated manner: foreign divert investment, portfolio equity and portfolio debt. There is a gap in the empirical literature in examining the factors that are important for various types of capital flows to low-income SSAn countries. Low-income SSAn countries attract very low levels of foreign investment compared to other developing economies in the SSAn region and other developing economies and this paper attempts to make a contribution in this area.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper examines data on capital flows and that of various push and pull factors. Trends and dynamics of capital inflows and their macroeconomic and institutional drivers are analyzed for low-income sub-Saharan African countries. Such an analysis has not been fully explored for low-income SSAn countries.
Findings
Capital inflows to low-income sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have increased sevenfold since the 1990s, dominated by foreign direct investment (FDI). They overtook official development assistance and aid in the 2010s. Mozambique and Ethiopia attract the largest size of FDI compared to other low-income SSAn economies, with natural resources as key factors in the former. The largest share of FDI to low-income SSAn countries comes from other SSAn countries, mostly South Africa and Mauritius. Among macroeconomic push factors, capital inflows are more closely related to commodity prices, while the volatility index and global liquidity are also important. Among macroeconomic pull factors, trade openness and economic growth appear more closely related to capital inflows. The surge in capital inflows in the 2000s also followed the implementation of several regional trade and investment agreements in the region. The improvement in internal conflict in the 1990s and mid-2000s seems to have helped support the increase in capital inflows during that period. This institutional quality variable appears to more closely track capital inflows compared to other institutional quality indicators. There were also improvements in the investment profile, law and order, and government stability in the 1990s to early 2000s when capital inflows picked up.
Research limitations/implications
This study focuses on low-income SSAn countries, which are less studied in the empirical literature and that face immense developmental needs that require foreign and domestic capital.
Practical implications
Findings of this paper can shed light to policy makers on the factors that are most important to help the region attract capital inflows and areas where further improvement is needed in the macroeconomic and institutional environment.
Originality/value
There is a gap in the empirical literature in examining the factors that are important for attracting capital flows to low-income SSAn countries. To our knowledge, this study may be the first to explore dynamics of capital flows against institional quality for low-income SSAn countries at a disaggregated level.
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Phuc Canh Nguyen, Christophe Schinckus, Binh Quang Nguyen and Duyen Le Thuy Tran
This study investigates the effect of global and domestic uncertainty on the dynamics of portfolio investment in 21 economies (mostly advanced and larger emerging economies) from…
Abstract
Purpose
This study investigates the effect of global and domestic uncertainty on the dynamics of portfolio investment in 21 economies (mostly advanced and larger emerging economies) from 2001–2016.
Design/methodology/approach
Specifically, the evolution of the net portfolio equity investment inflows (FPI net inflows) and the evolution of net portfolio investment (FPI net) are investigated in a context in which the degree and the volatility of domestic economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and world uncertainty index (WUI) varied. The authors provide an empirical analysis through the sequential (two-stage) estimation of linear panel data models for unbalanced panel data.
Findings
An increase in the degree and volatility of domestic EPU has a significant negative influence on FPI net inflows, while an increase in WUI has a significant positive one. Notably, a simultaneous increase in the domestic EPU and WUI enhances the net inflows of FPI, whereas a simultaneous increase in the volatility of these indicators reduces the net inflows of FPI. An increase in the degree and volatility of both domestic EPU and WUI have a significant positive effect on the net portfolio investment, implying that a significant net portfolio investment is going out of the country.
Research limitations/implications
The results of this study encourage international investors to consider uncertainty indicators (and, more specifically, their variations) in their portfolio strategy to optimize their position on the international markets. The findings of this study invite policy-makers from large countries to reduce the perceived domestic uncertainty since this parameter can influence international investors' sensitivity and willingness to diversify their position out of the country.
Originality/value
The authors' approach focuses on the variations of uncertainty (existing literature mainly works with the indicators). While the results confirm the role played by large markets in international portfolio investment management, it nuances the changes in the portfolio management behaviors toward other markets when facing a changing uncertainty.
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Boubekeur Baba and Güven Sevil
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of foreign capital shifts on economic activities and asset prices in South Korea.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of foreign capital shifts on economic activities and asset prices in South Korea.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors in this paper apply the Bayesian threshold vector autoregressive (TVAR) model to estimate the regimes of large and low inflows of foreign capital. Then, structural impulse-response analysis is used to check whether the responses of the variables differ across the estimated regimes. The model is estimated using quarterly data of foreign capital inflows, gross domestic product (GDP), consumer price index, credit to the private non-financial sector, real effective exchange rate (REER), stock returns and house prices.
Findings
The main findings suggest that large inflows of gross foreign capital, foreign direct investments (FDI) and foreign portfolio investments (FPI) are ineffective to boost economic growth, but large inflows of other foreign investments (OFIs) significantly contribute to GDP. The decreases in the foreign capital inflows are associated with larger depreciation of REER. The large inflows of gross foreign capital, FDI and OFIs are associated with further expansion of credit supply to private non-financial sectors.
Research limitations/implications
The policy implications of foreign capital inflows are of particular importance to all the emerging markets alike. However, the empirical analysis is limited to the case of South Korea due to various reasons. The experience with international capital inflows among emerging markets is heterogeneous. Therefore, it would be better to take each case of emerging market individually. In addition, TVAR analysis requires a long data sample, which unfortunately is not available for most of the emerging markets.
Originality/value
The foreign capital inflows are shown to be procyclical and notoriously volatile in many studies. Nevertheless, this topic has commonly been studied using linear VAR models, which do not properly deal with the cyclical characteristics of foreign capital inflows. This study attempts to resolve these methodological limitations by examining a non-linear VAR model that is capable of capturing the structural breaks associated with the cyclical behaviors of foreign capital inflows.
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Ola Al Sayed, Noha Sami Omar and Abdelmoneam Khaled
This paper aims to discuss the main characteristics of the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region's capital inflows volatility. It also examines the effect of institutional…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to discuss the main characteristics of the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region's capital inflows volatility. It also examines the effect of institutional quality and information availability on capital inflows volatility in selected MENA countries (Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Tunisia) in the period 1996–2017.
Design/methodology/approach
The study's assessments are based on the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) and globalization indices. It also employs an updated data set of balance of payments indicators released by the International Monetary Fund. Moreover, the study uses econometric panel modeling of random effect model, with Driscoll-Kraay robust standard error, to analyze the relationship between capital inflows volatility, institutional quality and information availability.
Findings
The paper finds that both institutional quality and information availability are in an inverse relationship with the total capital inflows volatility in the MENA region. However, the findings vary across the different components of total capital inflows. For example, the volatility of foreign direct investment (FDI) declines, like total capital flows, as the two factors improve. However, the volatility of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) is negatively related to institutional quality but does not have any significant relationship with information availability. While the volatility of foreign other investments (FOI) decreases with the availability of information, but does not have any significant relationship with institutional quality.
Originality/value
This paper expands the limited literature regarding the determinants of capital inflows volatility. Furthermore, it is the first study that investigates the effect of institutional quality and information availability on capital inflows volatility in the MENA region.
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Gouda Abdel Khalek and Amany Rizk
This paper aims to obtain a recent estimate of the cost of precautionary foreign reserve accumulation that emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) had to endure to…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to obtain a recent estimate of the cost of precautionary foreign reserve accumulation that emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) had to endure to protect themselves against the risks of financial globalization. In addition, the study estimates the cost of excess reserves in emerging market economies (EMEs) using various reserve adequacy indicators that reflect potential sources of foreign exchange drains and vulnerability in EMEs' balance of payments.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper begins by explaining the accumulation of foreign reserves in EMDEs as a self-protection strategy against the risks of financial globalization. Next, it sheds light on the different types of economic costs of foreign reserve accumulation. Finally, it estimates the cost of foreign reserve accumulation in EMEs during the period (1990–2018) and in EMDEs during the period (1990–2015) due to data availability.
Findings
Results indicate that the cost of accumulating foreign reserves as a self-protection strategy in EMDEs and EMEs' was huge compared to their development financing needs. Applying various reserve adequacy measures demonstrates that many of the EMEs were holding inadequate precautionary reserves in 2018. Actually, this reflects the significant increase in external short term debt that many of the EMEs have witnessed since the eruption of the global financial crisis (2008). Thus increasing reserves in EMEs with weak reserve buffers and higher external debt is critical as they are more vulnerable to external shocks and capital flow reversals. Also given the estimated huge costs of accumulating foreign reserves, EMDEs should accompany it by other complementary self-protection policies and liquidity management policies to free up resources for productive investment.
Originality/value
The study contributes to the literature by estimating the cost of precautionary foreign reserve accumulation imposed on EMDEs during an extended period of time that covers a decade after the onset of the global financial crisis. Also to the authors' knowledge, this is the first study that estimates the cost of excess reserves in EMEs using various reserve adequacy indicators including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) assessing reserve adequacy (ARA) approach.
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Harendra Kumar Behera and Inder Sekhar Yadav
The purpose of this paper is to examine the issue of high current account deficit (CAD) from various perspectives focussing its behaviour, financing pattern and sustainability for…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the issue of high current account deficit (CAD) from various perspectives focussing its behaviour, financing pattern and sustainability for India.
Design/methodology/approach
To begin with the trends, composition and dynamics of CAD for India are analysed. Next, the influence of capital flows on current account is investigated using Granger non-causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) between current account balance (CAB) to GDP ratio and financial account balance to GDP ratio. Also, the sustainability of India’s current account is examined using different econometrics techniques. In particular, Husted’s (1992), Johansen’s cointegration and vector error correction model (VECM) is applied along with conducting unit root and structural break tests wherever applicable. Further, long-run and short-run determinants of the CAB are estimated using Johansen’s VECM.
Findings
The study found that the widening of CAD is due to fall in household financial savings and corporate investments. Also, it was found that a large part of India’s CAD has been financed by FDI and portfolio investments which are partly replaced by short-term volatile flows. The unit root and cointegration tests indicate a sustainable current account for India. Further, econometric analysis reveals that India’s current account is driven by fiscal deficit, terms of trade growth, inflation, real deposit rate, trade openness, relative income growth and the age dependency factor.
Practical implications
Since India’s CAD has widened and is expected to widen primarily due to rise in gold and oil imports, policy makers should focus on achieving phenomenal export growth so that a sustainable current account is maintained. Also, with rising working-age and skilled population, India should focus more on high-value product exports rather than low-value manufactured items. Further, on the structural side it is important to correct fiscal deficit as it is one of the important factors contributing to large CAD.
Originality/value
The paper is an important empirical contribution towards explaining India’s CAD over time using latest and comprehensive data and econometric models.
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