Search results

By reinforcing monetary policy independence, reducing international financing pressures and avoiding high-risk takings, capital controls strengthen the stability of the financial system and then reduce the volatility of capital inflows. The objective of this study was to conduct an empirical examination of this hypothesis. This topic has received strong support in the theoretical literature; however, empirical work has been quite limited, with few empirical studies that provide direct empirical support to this hypothesis.

This study analyzed quarterly data of 32 emerging economies over the period between 2000 and 2015 and proposes two methods to identify capital control actions. Using panel analysis, Autoregressive Distributed Lag and local projections approaches.

This study found that tighter capital controls may diminish monetary and exchange rate shocks and reduce capital inflows volatility. Furthermore, capital controls respond counter-cyclically to monetary shocks. Under capital controls, countries with floating exchange rate regimes have more potential to buffer monetary shocks. We also found that capital controls on inflows are more effective for reducing the volatility of capital inflows compared to capital controls on outflows.

This study contributes to the question of the effectiveness of capital controls in attenuating the effects of international shocks and reducing the volatility of capital flows. Previous studies have mostly focused on the role of macroprudential regulation; however, there is a lack of systematic effects of capital controls on monetary and exchange rate policies. To our knowledge, this is the first preliminary study to suggest that capital controls may buffer monetary and exchange rate shocks and reduce the volatility of capital inflows. This study investigates the novel notion that capital controls allow for a notable counter-cyclical response of monetary and exchange rate policies to international financial shocks.

This study empirically examines the effect of capital controls on the volume and composition of capital flows at aggregated as well as at disaggregated level by different asset classes such as debt, FDI, equity, and derivatives.

Several dynamic panel SYS-GMM models are employed on two sets of unique data on cross-border capital flows and capital control index along with control variables at aggregated and disaggregated level by different asset classes during 1995–2015 for a sample of 31 Asian economies.

Econometric findings suggest that higher capital controls effectively reduce gross capital flows. The reduction in gross capital flows is largely found to be on account of effectiveness of controls on equity flows. However, the impact of controls on overall debt and derivative flows is found to be insignificant. Further, it was found that an increase in direct capital controls disaggregated by inflow and outflow categories significantly reduced the inflow of debt and equity + FDI flows and outflow of equity + FDI and derivative flows. Finally, the study did not find any substitution effect (due to indirect controls) and net effect on capital flows.

Results of such empirical examination may enable governments in respective countries to pursue prudent and rational capital controls as a shield against capital flight and shock transmission.

Preventing capital flight through effective controls has macroeconomic benefits such as maintaining stability in income, growth, interest rate, exchange rate, and employment levels for the society.

The primary contribution of the study is the analysis of effectiveness of capital controls disaggregated by different asset categories such as debt, equity, FDI, and derivatives using two unique recent data sets for a large sample of Asian economies.

Using data on 739 banks from 22 countries with a dual banking system from 2012 to 2019, this paper aims to examine whether capital inflows affect banks’ profitability in recipient countries.

The authors check the conjecture about the effect of capital inflows on the profitability of the host country’s banks by estimating the following regression:

Pict=α0+α1·CFct+α2·Islamici+α3·CFct×Islamici+δ·Xict+θ·Yct+εict (1)

where the dependent variable (P_ict) refers to bank profitability, measured by either ROA or ROE for bank i, country c and year t. ROA is defined as the ratio of net profit to average total assets expressed as a percentage, which determines how efficiently a bank uses its assets to generate a profit. ROE is defined as the ratio of net profit to average total equity expressed as a percentage, which is a measure of increases in shareholders’ wealth.

The authors find that capital inflows are generally positively associated with bank profitability. However, cross-border capital inflows reduce the rate of return in Islamic banks relative to their conventional counterparts. When decomposing inflows by instrument, the authors find that the enhancing role of capital inflows on bank profitability comes mainly from debt inflows and borrowers; the authors observe that the documented results emanate mostly from the inflows to the financial sector. These results remain unchanged if holding a bank’s risk constant. Overall, foreign funds in the form of debt inflows targeting the financial sector can disproportionately improve the performance of commercial banks in recipient countries.

The paper is an original research project. The analysis contributes to the existing literature in several ways: the authors study whether the impact of capital inflows on bank profitability varies with the bank business model by looking at both the Islamic and conventional bank systems. The profitability of the banking system is an important catalyst for growth and stability. The authors also decompose capital inflows to recipient countries into their equity and debt components and study the differential impact of those components on the profitability of Islamic and conventional banks.

The purpose of the paper is to examine macroeconomic and institutional factors that influence capital flows to low-income sub-Saharan African (SSAn) countries. It analyzes capital flows in a disaggregated manner: foreign divert investment, portfolio equity and portfolio debt. There is a gap in the empirical literature in examining the factors that are important for various types of capital flows to low-income SSAn countries. Low-income SSAn countries attract very low levels of foreign investment compared to other developing economies in the SSAn region and other developing economies and this paper attempts to make a contribution in this area.

This paper examines data on capital flows and that of various push and pull factors. Trends and dynamics of capital inflows and their macroeconomic and institutional drivers are analyzed for low-income sub-Saharan African countries. Such an analysis has not been fully explored for low-income SSAn countries.

Capital inflows to low-income sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have increased sevenfold since the 1990s, dominated by foreign direct investment (FDI). They overtook official development assistance and aid in the 2010s. Mozambique and Ethiopia attract the largest size of FDI compared to other low-income SSAn economies, with natural resources as key factors in the former. The largest share of FDI to low-income SSAn countries comes from other SSAn countries, mostly South Africa and Mauritius. Among macroeconomic push factors, capital inflows are more closely related to commodity prices, while the volatility index and global liquidity are also important. Among macroeconomic pull factors, trade openness and economic growth appear more closely related to capital inflows. The surge in capital inflows in the 2000s also followed the implementation of several regional trade and investment agreements in the region. The improvement in internal conflict in the 1990s and mid-2000s seems to have helped support the increase in capital inflows during that period. This institutional quality variable appears to more closely track capital inflows compared to other institutional quality indicators. There were also improvements in the investment profile, law and order, and government stability in the 1990s to early 2000s when capital inflows picked up.

This study focuses on low-income SSAn countries, which are less studied in the empirical literature and that face immense developmental needs that require foreign and domestic capital.

Findings of this paper can shed light to policy makers on the factors that are most important to help the region attract capital inflows and areas where further improvement is needed in the macroeconomic and institutional environment.

There is a gap in the empirical literature in examining the factors that are important for attracting capital flows to low-income SSAn countries. To our knowledge, this study may be the first to explore dynamics of capital flows against institional quality for low-income SSAn countries at a disaggregated level.

The purpose of this paper is to consider the transition of surge episodes to stop episodes and differentiates between two types of surges, namely, surges that end in stops and surges that end in normal episodes.

Previous studies show that surges end in output contractions, crises, and reversals of capital inflows. However, when one looks closely at the data, more than half of surges end in normal episodes at least four quarters following the last surge quarter.

The results show the varying significance of global and domestic factors correlated with the occurrence of surges leading to stops and the size of gross inflows during these two types of surges.

The findings highlight the importance of differentiating between these two types of surges as it leaves scope for policy design in safeguarding financial stability amidst surging capital inflows.

The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of foreign capital inflows on economic growth in 15 Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries over the period 2008–2018. Specifically, this paper investigates whether selected foreign capital inflows, namely, foreign debt, foreign aid and foreign direct investments substitute or complement government spending in ECOWAS.

The study adopts the two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) method of estimation to address the problem of dynamic endogeneity inherent in the relationship.

The result shows that foreign capital inflows into ECOWAS region have not transmitted into economic growth in the region. Further, the findings reveal that foreign capital inflows to ECOWAS have substituted for government spending. The results might be as a result of the high level of corruption in ECOWAS. The results also show that when institutional quality is interacted with foreign capital inflows, the result shows a negative and statistically significant effect on economic growth.

Unlike previous studies which pooled both developed and developing economies together, the authors investigate this relationship in a regional study, using ECOWAS to create a roughly optimum size. In addition, the authors adopt the GMM-system method of estimation to address the problem of dynamic endogeneity inherent in the relationship, which has largely been ignored in extant studies.

The present paper is a phenomenological study of capital inflow, economic growth and financial crisis in the Southeast Asian countries in general and Malaysia in particular. The paper seeks to explain how unregulated capital inflow in an open economy leads to unsustainable growth It comes to the broad conclusion that although capital inflow is conducive to economic growth, it may also generate the problem of macroeconomic vulnerability and unsustainability, and in such a situation, the occurrence of financial crisis may not be an uncommon possibility.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of foreign capital shifts on economic activities and asset prices in South Korea.

The authors in this paper apply the Bayesian threshold vector autoregressive (TVAR) model to estimate the regimes of large and low inflows of foreign capital. Then, structural impulse-response analysis is used to check whether the responses of the variables differ across the estimated regimes. The model is estimated using quarterly data of foreign capital inflows, gross domestic product (GDP), consumer price index, credit to the private non-financial sector, real effective exchange rate (REER), stock returns and house prices.

The main findings suggest that large inflows of gross foreign capital, foreign direct investments (FDI) and foreign portfolio investments (FPI) are ineffective to boost economic growth, but large inflows of other foreign investments (OFIs) significantly contribute to GDP. The decreases in the foreign capital inflows are associated with larger depreciation of REER. The large inflows of gross foreign capital, FDI and OFIs are associated with further expansion of credit supply to private non-financial sectors.

The policy implications of foreign capital inflows are of particular importance to all the emerging markets alike. However, the empirical analysis is limited to the case of South Korea due to various reasons. The experience with international capital inflows among emerging markets is heterogeneous. Therefore, it would be better to take each case of emerging market individually. In addition, TVAR analysis requires a long data sample, which unfortunately is not available for most of the emerging markets.

The foreign capital inflows are shown to be procyclical and notoriously volatile in many studies. Nevertheless, this topic has commonly been studied using linear VAR models, which do not properly deal with the cyclical characteristics of foreign capital inflows. This study attempts to resolve these methodological limitations by examining a non-linear VAR model that is capable of capturing the structural breaks associated with the cyclical behaviors of foreign capital inflows.

The authors investigate the impacts of international capital inflows on bank lending in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations-6 (ASEAN-6) countries on the dynamics of both bank loan volumes and credit risk-taking. The authors further explore the heterogenous impacts of different components of the foreign capital. As a robustness check, the authors also examine the role of crisis periods and agency problem on the relationship between international capital inflows and bank lending.

The authors explore the impacts of international capital inflows on bank lending in the ASEAN-6 countries, including Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam. The authors employ quarterly data from 2005Q1 to 2021Q2 from 45 commercial banks in the ASEAN-6 countries. The article uses bank-fixed and time-fixed effects in the panel dataset to account for any unobserved heterogeneity.

The authors find that capital inflows to the ASEAN-6 countries are associated with higher bank loan growth and lower loan loss provisions to net interest income ratios. Moreover, the positive relationships between capital inflows to the bank loan growth and credit risk-taking are mainly driven by the dynamics in foreign direct investments (FDIs) and other inflow (OI) components. Contrary to the global financial crisis (GFC), the authors note that the mediating role of capital inflows on bank lending is of particular importance in the COVID-19 pandemic.

This study has some limitations that provide vendors for future research. First, while the authors focus on the impact of capital inflows on bank-level lending activities, future research can also explore the role of foreign capital on bank efficiency and financial stability. Second, although foreign capital fluctuates the most during crisis periods, the movement of capital inflows is also sensitive to other periods of heightened global uncertainty. Thus, rather than focus on the behavior of foreign capital during crisis periods, future research can examine and explore the impacts of capital inflows in different periods of “stop” and “surge” for sudden contraction and boom in capital inflows to the ASEAN-6 countries.

First, the authors provide a comprehensive analysis of international capital inflows' impact on bank lending in the ASEAN region on both bank loan volumes and credit risk-taking. Second, the authors provide evidence of the impact of different forms of foreign capital on the bank lending. Third, the authors investigate the heterogeneous impact of foreign capital on crisis periods and bank sizes, which the authors emphasize the unusual characteristics of the COVID-19 crisis compared with the GFC.

This empirical paper investigates the relationships between the amount of human capital that flows into a firm and two activities underlying a firm’s knowledge production, variation or change and knowledge retention. We track the flow of human capital within and across organizational and geographic space for all multi‐unit banks operating in the world foreign exchange trade industry from 1973 to 1993. The findings indicate that an increased reliance on past experience reduces how much human capital a firm imports in the future. This effect is moderated by a self‐reinforcing cycle of human capital inflow. Inflows of human capital also decline when a firm has recently adopted novel changes in its operations. The paper uses evolutionary thinking to define a model for intrafirm knowledge production.