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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 7 April 2023

Billy Prananta and Constantinos Alexiou

The authors explore the relationship between the exchange rate, bond yield and the stock market as well as the effect of capital market dynamics on the exchange rate before and…

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Abstract

Purpose

The authors explore the relationship between the exchange rate, bond yield and the stock market as well as the effect of capital market dynamics on the exchange rate before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors employ a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) methodology using daily data of the Indonesian economy over the period 2012–2021.

Findings

Whilst, over the full sample period, the authors find no cointegration between the exchange rate, the 10-year bond yield and stock market, for the COVID-19 period, evidence of cointegration is present. Furthermore, the results suggest that asymmetric effects are evident both in the short as well as the long run.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time that the relationship between the exchange rate, bond yield and the stock market as well as the effect of capital market dynamics on the exchange rate before and during the COVID-19 pandemic has been explored in the case of the Indonesian economy.

Details

Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, vol. 8 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2615-9821

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 11 July 2023

Yunsung Eom and Mincheol Woo

As of May 2022, the National Pension Service of Korea is the world's third-largest pension fund, with assets worth KRW912tn (approximately $US800bn). Of the KRW152tn…

Abstract

As of May 2022, the National Pension Service of Korea is the world's third-largest pension fund, with assets worth KRW912tn (approximately $US800bn). Of the KRW152tn (approximately $US133bn) invested in domestic equities, 45% is outsourced to external asset managers. Given the absence of prior research on the National Pension Service's (NPS's) management method, this study analyzes its trading strategies and market impact according to the fund management method from 2005 to 2022. The results are as follows: First, the stock characteristics selected by internal management using passive strategies are different from those selected by external management, in which various strategies are combined. Second, the contrarian investment strategy, which acts as a market stabilizer, is a characteristic of the external management trading pattern, while internal management increases volatility and does not improve liquidity. Third, there has been a change in the internal management strategy since 2016, when the fund management headquarters was relocated. This study is practically significant and distinctive in that it confirms the differences between the NPS's two investment methods in terms of trading strategies and market impact.

Details

Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies: 선물연구, vol. 31 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1229-988X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 8 February 2024

Peter Ngozi Amah

A stylized fact in finance literature is the belief in positive relationship between ex ante return and risk. Hence, a rational investor, by utility preference axiom can only…

Abstract

Purpose

A stylized fact in finance literature is the belief in positive relationship between ex ante return and risk. Hence, a rational investor, by utility preference axiom can only consider committing fund in asset which promises commensurate higher return for higher risk. Questions have been asked as to whether this holds true across securities, sectors and markets. Empirical evidence appears less convincing, especially in developing markets. Accordingly, the author investigates the nature of reward for taking risk in the Nigerian Capital Market within the context of individual assets and markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The author employed ex post design to collect weekly stock prices of firms listed on the Premium Board of Nigerian Stock Exchange for period 2014–2022 to attempt to answer research questions. Data were analyzed using a unique M Vec TGarch-in-Mean model considered to be robust in handling many assets, and hence portfolio management.

Findings

The study found that idea of risk-expected return trade-off is perhaps more general than as depicted by traditional finance literature. The regression revealed that conditional variance and covariance risks reveal minimal or no differences in sign and sizes of coefficients. However, standard errors were also found to be large suggesting somewhat inconclusive evidence of existence of defined incentive structure for taking additional risk in the market.

Originality/value

In terms of choice of methodology and outcomes, this research adds substantial value to body of knowledge. The adapted multivariate model used in this paper is a rare approach especially for management of portfolios in developing markets. Remarkably, the research found empirical evidence that positive risk-expected return trade-off, as known in mainstream literature, is not supported especially using a typical developing country data.

Details

IIMBG Journal of Sustainable Business and Innovation, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2976-8500

Keywords

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 19 February 2024

Quoc Trung Tran

Abstract

Details

Dividend Policy
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83797-988-2

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 28 September 2023

Amit Rohilla, Neeta Tripathi and Varun Bhandari

In a first of its kind, this paper tries to explore the long-run relationship between investors' sentiment and selected industries' returns over the period January 2010 to…

Abstract

Purpose

In a first of its kind, this paper tries to explore the long-run relationship between investors' sentiment and selected industries' returns over the period January 2010 to December 2021.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper uses 23 market and macroeconomic proxies to measure investor sentiment. Principal component analysis has been used to create sentiment sub-indices that represent investor sentiment. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and other sophisticated econometric techniques such as the unit root test, the cumulative sum (CUSUM) stability test, regression, etc. have been used to achieve the objectives of the study.

Findings

The authors find that there is a significant relationship between sentiment sub-indices and industries' returns over the period of study. Market and economic variables, market ratios, advance-decline ratio, high-low index, price-to-book value ratio and liquidity in the economy are some of the significant sub-indices explaining industries' returns.

Research limitations/implications

The study has relevant implications for retail investors, policy-makers and other decision-makers in the Indian stock market. Results are helpful for the investor in improving their decision-making and identifying those sentiment sub-indices and the variables therein that are relevant in explaining the return of a particular industry.

Originality/value

The study contributes to the existing literature by exploring the relationship between sentiment and industries' returns in the Indian stock market and by identifying relevant sentiment sub-indices. Also, the study supports the investors' irrationality, which arises due to a plethora of behavioral biases as enshrined in classical finance.

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 11 July 2023

Muskan Sachdeva and Ritu Lehal

Stock markets are considered as the largest and most important units for the development and growth of the economy. The present study attempts to provide a comprehensive view of…

6619

Abstract

Purpose

Stock markets are considered as the largest and most important units for the development and growth of the economy. The present study attempts to provide a comprehensive view of factors influencing investment decision making process of stock market investors. A multi group analysis of gender is also carried out on the proposed model.

Design/methodology/approach

The data of 402 valid responses are collected through structured questionnaires from individual investors of North India. SPSS 23 is used to do the descriptive analysis and AMOS 22 is used to establish the validity of the constructs and for hypotheses testing. For performing multi group analysis, several invariance tests have also been conducted to check the robustness of the model.

Findings

The results reveal that all the factors such as firm image, accounting information, neutral information, advocate recommendation and personal financial needs significantly influence investment decision making concluding image of the firm being the most influential factor and advocate recommendation being the least influential factor for investment decisions. No significant differences between males and females were found.

Research limitations/implications

The current study suffers from the limitation of restricted geographical area of North India. Moreover, there is also a scope to incorporate more demographic factors for predicting investment decisions.

Originality/value

This study incorporates a range of factors which covers all the aspects of investment decision making. This study also highlights the notion of signaling theory, thus contributing to the limited literature in Indian context.

Details

PSU Research Review, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2399-1747

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 1 February 2024

Phuong Thi Ly Nguyen, Nha Thanh Huynh and Thanh Thanh Canh Huynh

The authors investigate how foreign investment in securities market informs about the future firm performance in emerging markets.

Abstract

Purpose

The authors investigate how foreign investment in securities market informs about the future firm performance in emerging markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors define the independent variable, abnormal foreign investment (AFI) as the residuals of the foreign ownership equation. The authors regress foreign ownership on its first lag and factors and define the residuals as the AFI. The AFI is the over- or under-investment reflecting foreign conscious (clear-purpose) investment, thus better indicating how foreign investment affects firm performance. The dependent variable is Tobin’s q (Q), which represents the firm performance. Then, the authors regress the Tobin’s q next quarters (Qt + k) on the AFI current quarter (AFIt). The authors use a two-step generalized method of moments (GMM) and check endogeneity with the D-GMM model for the regression.

Findings

The results show that the current AFI is positively correlated with the firm performance in each of the next four quarters (the following one year). This positive relationship is pronounced for large firms, firms with no large foreign investors, liquid firms and firms listed in the active market. The results suggest that foreign investment might choose well-productive firms already. Also, the current AFI is significantly positively correlated with stock returns in each of the next three quarters. These results suggest that the AFI is informative up to one-year period.

Research limitations/implications

The results suggest that foreign investors (most of them are small) in the Vietnamese market might choose well-productive firms already. However, if the large investors have long-term investment in tangible, intangible, human capital and so on, and lead to a significant increase in firms’ performance is still the limitation of this paper.

Practical implications

The results of this paper may guide investors whose portfolios are composed of stocks with foreign investment.

Originality/value

This paper adds to the literature to enrich the conclusion of a positive relationship between foreign ownership and firm performance.

Details

Journal of Economics and Development, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1859-0020

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 23 May 2023

Myungjoo Kang, Inwook Song and Seiwan Kim

This study aims to empirically analyze the asset allocation capabilities of Outsourced Chief Investment Officers (OCIOs) in Korea. The empirical analysis used data from 35 funds…

Abstract

This study aims to empirically analyze the asset allocation capabilities of Outsourced Chief Investment Officers (OCIOs) in Korea. The empirical analysis used data from 35 funds that were evaluated by the Ministry of Strategy and Finance from 2012 to 2020. The results of the analysis are summarized as follows. First, this study found that funds that adopted OCIO improved their asset allocation performance. Second, the sensitivity between risk-taking and performance decreased for funds that adopted OCIO. Third, it is found that OCIO adoption improves a fund's asset management execution (tactical capabilities). This study has methodological limitations in which the methodology used in this study is not based on theoretical prior research, but on practical applications. However, considering the need to clearly analyze the capabilities of OCIO and the timeliness of the topic, this study is valuable and can provide meaningful information to funders who are considering adopting OCIO in the future.

Details

Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies: 선물연구, vol. 31 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1229-988X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 17 March 2023

Cheol-Won Yang

The recommendation of the analyst report is not only limited to a small number of ratings, but also biased toward a buy opinion with the absence of sell opinion. As an alternative…

Abstract

The recommendation of the analyst report is not only limited to a small number of ratings, but also biased toward a buy opinion with the absence of sell opinion. As an alternative to this, this paper aims to extract analysts' textual opinions embedded in the report body through text analysis and examine the profitability of investment strategies. Analyst opinion about a firm is measured by calculating the frequency of positive and negative words in the report text through the Korean sentiment lexicon for finance (KOSELF). To verify the usefulness of textual opinions, the author constructs a calendar-time based portfolios by the analysts' textual opinion variable of each stock. When opinion level is used, investment strategy has no significant hedged portfolio return. However, hedged portfolio constructed by opinion change shows significant return of 0.117% per day (2.57% per month). In addition, the hedged return increases to 0.163% per day (3.59% per month) when the opening price is used instead of closing price. This study show that the analysts’ opinion extracted from text analysis contains more detailed spectrum than recommendation and investment strategies using them give significant returns.

Details

Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies: 선물연구, vol. 31 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1229-988X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 25 January 2024

Mert Akyuz, Muhammed Sehid Gorus and Cihan Gunes

This investigation aims to determine the effect of trade uncertainty on domestic investment (DI) and foreign direct investment (FDI) for the Turkish economy from the first quarter…

Abstract

Purpose

This investigation aims to determine the effect of trade uncertainty on domestic investment (DI) and foreign direct investment (FDI) for the Turkish economy from the first quarter of 2005 to the first quarter of 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors adopt the vector autoregression (VAR) model augmented with Fourier terms. Using this methodology, the authors obtain the empirical results of the impulse-response functions and the variance decomposition analysis.

Findings

The empirical results demonstrate that a shock to trade uncertainty has a slight negative impact on DI for up to approximately 1.5 years, whereas its impact on FDI is negative but long-lasting. Moreover, the contribution of trade uncertainty to FDI is relatively higher than to DI in the error variance decomposition for the investigated period. These empirical results can be beneficial for shaping the Turkish authorities' trade policies in the following periods.

Research limitations/implications

These findings have implications within the macroeconomic setting. Government authorities can provide tax exemptions for specified sectors and debureaucratize investment processes for both domestic and foreign entrepreneurs. Additionally, institutional quality and property rights should be protected strictly and developed gradually.

Originality/value

This study is the first to examine the impact of world trade uncertainty on Türkiye’s DI and FDI. Because trade uncertainty might act as fixed costs, this creates the option value of waiting and seeing the market, and firms hesitate to incur investment.

Details

Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2515-964X

Keywords

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