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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 20 September 2024

Eugene Msizi Buthelezi

The purpose of this study is to investigate the interplay between fiscal dominance and monetary policy in South Africa from 1960 to 2023.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to investigate the interplay between fiscal dominance and monetary policy in South Africa from 1960 to 2023.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employs a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) medel to analyze the relationship between fiscal dominance and monetary policy. Short-term and long-term shocks of government borrowing and deficits are examined to understand their impact on inflation dynamics.

Findings

Fiscal dominance has a significant effect both in the short and long run. There is evidence that government debt and deficits increase inflation, overriding the effects of monetary policy aimed at maintaining price stability. On the other hand, the study reveals that money supply shocks have a greater effect in reducing fiscal dominance compared to interest rate shocks. The variance movement on inflation is significantly explained by government debt and deficits. This emphasizes the persistence of inflationary pressures associated with fiscal dominance, highlighting the importance of effective policy interventions to mitigate inflationary risks.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the existing literature by providing insights into the dynamics of fiscal dominance in South Africa. Moreover, this study extends the theoretical framework of the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) and the government budget constraint. This study contributes valuable insights into the dynamics of fiscal dominance in South Africa and offers guidance for policymakers in formulating strategies to safeguard economic stability.

Details

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-0705

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 May 2024

Timinepere Ogele Court and Alaowei Kingsley Appiah

The aim of the study is to explore the links between multiple personal income tax regimes, pay dissatisfaction, employee lateness and absenteeism. Accordingly, this paper examines…

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of the study is to explore the links between multiple personal income tax regimes, pay dissatisfaction, employee lateness and absenteeism. Accordingly, this paper examines the relationships between income tax policies, pay dissatisfaction and the work withdrawal behaviours of employees in the public service.

Design/methodology/approach

The study adopted a quantitative design, and data were collected through a structured questionnaire from a sample of 252 respondents from the Bayelsa State Civil Service in Nigeria. Data were analysed by applying multivariate regression and structural equation modelling through the use of Stata software version 12 and SmartPLS version 4.

Findings

The results demonstrated that there was a positive relationship between personal income tax regimes and pay dissatisfaction; there was a positive relationship between pay dissatisfaction and work withdrawal behaviour of employee tardiness and absenteeism and pay dissatisfaction mediated the relationships between personal income tax regimes and work withdrawal behaviours of public sector employees.

Originality/value

The study appears to be the first to explore the nexus between personal income tax regimes and pay dissatisfaction and withdrawal behaviours of employee tardiness and absenteeism as well as the mediating role of pay dissatisfaction in public service organisations.

Details

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-0705

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 March 2023

Maryam Hemmati, Saleh S. Tabrizy and Yashar Tarverdi

To study the key determinants of chronically high inflation in Iran.

Abstract

Purpose

To study the key determinants of chronically high inflation in Iran.

Design/methodology/approach

Relying on annual data from 1978 to 2019, the authors employ an Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Error Correction Model (ECM) to study the inflationary effects of monetary and fiscal policies as well as exchange rate swings and sanctions intensification.

Findings

The authors find that increase in money supply, depreciation of nominal exchange rate, increase in fiscal deficit and intensification of sanctions are among the key drivers of inflation in Iran. Their impact is profound in the long run, but in the short run only money supply and currency depreciation are significant. Also, when exploring the inflation in different components of Consumer Price Index (CPI), we find robust long- and short-run effects from money supply and exchange rate, while the effects of fiscal deficit and sanctions vary across different components.

Originality/value

The authors contribute to the literature by setting apart the long-vs short-run effects of key variables on inflation in Iran. The authors also employ improved measures of fiscal deficit and sanctions that are shown to be of significance in the long run. Lastly, the authors go beyond the aggregate index and examine the variations in different CPI components.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 50 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 October 2021

Benedict Ikemefuna Uzoechina, Joseph Afolabi Ibikunle, Godwin Olasehinde-Williams and Festus Victor Bekun

The growth of both the informal sector and illicit financial outflows necessitated this study, in order to investigate how countries in Africa respond to these realities in terms…

Abstract

Purpose

The growth of both the informal sector and illicit financial outflows necessitated this study, in order to investigate how countries in Africa respond to these realities in terms of mobilization of domestic resources. These are the main motivation for the current study to the extant literature in conjunction with the adoption of employing second-generation econometric techniques which take into account cross-sectional dependence and country-specific heterogeneity.

Design/methodology/approach

This study therefore examined the capacity of Africa to mobilize domestic resources amidst rising illicit financial outflows and informal sector size in selected African countries between 2000 and 2018. Second-generation econometric techniques such as cross-sectional dependence tests, slope homogeneity tests, Westerlund (2007) long-run co-integration tests, Eberhardt and Teal (2010) augmented mean group estimations and Kónya (2006) panel causality testing were employed.

Findings

Findings revealed the existence of cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity in the data series. Findings also supported the existence of depressing long-run impacts of IFOs and ISS on domestic savings. Causality test results were not uniform across variables among countries. Policy recommendations favour formalizing the largely informal African economies through budgetary policy adjustments and commitment to building stronger institutions.

Practical implications

The fragility of the African countries economy and its macroeconomic indicators is suggestive for more policy construction.

Originality/value

This economic reality about the nature of the informal sector is one that has negated the traditional view which holds that economic reforms would make the informal sector shrink as it transits to formal sector. Experiences from Latin America and Africa in fact indicate that the informal sector is actually on an expansionary path in the wake of adjustment and policy reforms. It is often called the unobserved, unorganized or unprotected economy. With this sector growing in size, the possibility of a reverse may not be in sight, owing to the increasing poverty levels and unemployment prevalent in most African countries. Uncertain foreign investment and aid inflows coupled with lower export revenues and high levels of indebtedness have created new impetus to examine the capacity of Africa's fiscal policy regime to mobilise domestic resources for the development of the region. Surprisingly, the last decade witnessed continued rise in Africa's illicit financial outflows amidst large informal sector size (ISS).

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. 39 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2054-6238

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 June 2024

Engy Raouf

The objective of the study is to investigate the dynamic relationship between fiscal stress (FS) shocks and foreign direct investment (FDI) in moderate FS developing countries…

Abstract

Purpose

The objective of the study is to investigate the dynamic relationship between fiscal stress (FS) shocks and foreign direct investment (FDI) in moderate FS developing countries spanning from 2000 to 2021. The paper seeks to identify dual-regime effects, exploring how FS shocks impact FDI differently in low-stress and high-stress environments.

Design/methodology/approach

This study employs advanced econometric techniques to investigate the dynamic relationship between FS shocks and FDI in a sample of moderate FS developing countries spanning from 2000 to 2021. The analysis utilizes variance decomposition, impulse response functions, and a regime-switching vector autoregressive model to explore the nuanced interactions between FS and FDI attraction. These techniques allow for the identification of dual-regime effects, wherein FS shocks exhibit differing impacts on FDI depending on the prevailing stress environment.

Findings

The analysis reveals a dual-regime effect of FS shocks on FDI in the sample of moderate FS developing countries studied from 2000 to 2021. In low-stress regimes, FS shocks initially have a positive impact on FDI, suggesting potential investment opportunities. However, in high-stress regimes, the effect reverses, resulting in a negative impact on FDI attraction. Moreover, the study highlights the asymmetric nature of this relationship, with the adverse effects of FS on FDI intensifying over time in high-stress environments.

Originality/value

Previous studies focused mainly on a country's fiscal position and its impact on FDI or capital inflows. This is the first study to assess how FS or fiscal pressure affects FDI.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 May 2024

Asif Tariq, Shahid Bashir and Aadil Amin

India’s historical fiscal performance has featured elevated deficit levels. Driven by the imperative need for fiscal stimulus measures in response to the crisis, efforts toward…

Abstract

Purpose

India’s historical fiscal performance has featured elevated deficit levels. Driven by the imperative need for fiscal stimulus measures in response to the crisis, efforts toward fiscal consolidation from 2003 to 2008 were reversed in 2008–2009 due to the financial crisis. These stimulus actions are believed to have wielded a notable influence on inflation dynamics. Presumably, a high inflation rate hinders growth and inflicts severe welfare costs. Accordingly, the principal objective of this paper is to scrutinise the threshold effects of fiscal deficit on inflation within the context of the Indian economy.

Design/methodology/approach

We employed the Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) Model, a robust tool for capturing non-linear relationships, to discern the specific threshold level of fiscal deficit. Our analysis encompasses annual data spanning from 1971 to 2020. Additionally, we have leveraged the Toda-Yamamoto causality test to establish the existence and direction of a causal connection between fiscal deficit and inflation in the Indian economy.

Findings

Our analysis pinpointed a critical threshold level of 3.40% for fiscal deficit, a value beyond which inflation dynamics in India undergo a marked transition, signifying the presence of significant non-linear effects. Moreover, the results derived from the Toda-Yamamoto causality test offer substantiating evidence of a causal relationship originating from the fiscal deficit and leading to inflation within the Indian economic framework.

Research limitations/implications

The findings of our study carry significant implications, particularly for the formulation and execution of both fiscal and monetary policies. Understanding the threshold effects of fiscal deficit on inflation in India provides policymakers with valuable insights into achieving a harmonious balance between these two critical economic variables.

Originality/value

To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first of its kind to empirically investigate threshold effects of fiscal deficit on inflation in India from a non-linear perspective using the Smooth Transition Autoregression (STAR) model.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 20 October 2023

Thembeka Sibahle Ngcobo, Lindokuhle Talent Zungu and Nomusa Yolanda Nkomo

This study aims to test the dynamic impact of public debt and economic growth on newly democratized African countries (South Africa and Namibia) and compare the findings with…

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Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to test the dynamic impact of public debt and economic growth on newly democratized African countries (South Africa and Namibia) and compare the findings with those of newly democratized European countries (Germany and Ukraine) during the period 1990–2022.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodology involves three stages: identifying the appropriate transition variable, assessing the linearity between public debt and economic growth and selecting the order m of the transition function. The linearity test helps identify the nature of relationships between public debt and economic growth. The wild cluster bootstrap-Lagrange Multiplier test is used to evaluate the model’s appropriateness. All these tests would be executed using the Lagrange Multiplier type of test.

Findings

The results signify the policy switch, as the authors find that the relationship between public debt and economic growth is characterized by two transitions that symbolize that the current stage of the relationship is beyond the U-shape; however, an S-shape. The results show that for newly democratized African countries, the threshold during the first waves was 50% of GDP, represented by a U-shape, which then transits to an inverted U-shape with a threshold of 65% of GDP. Then, for the European case, it was 60% of GDP, which is now 72% of GDP.

Originality/value

The findings suggest that an escalating level of public debt has a negative impact on economic growth; therefore, it is important to implement fiscal discipline, prioritize government spending and reduce reliance on debt financing. This can be achieved by focusing on revenue generation, implementing effective taxation policies, reducing wasteful expenditures and promoting investment and productivity-enhancing measures.

Details

International Journal of Development Issues, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1446-8956

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 October 2023

John De-Clerk Azure, Chandana Alawattage and Sarah George Lauwo

The World Bank-sponsored public financial management reforms attempt to instil fiscal discipline through techno-managerial packages. Taking Ghana's integrated financial management…

Abstract

Purpose

The World Bank-sponsored public financial management reforms attempt to instil fiscal discipline through techno-managerial packages. Taking Ghana's integrated financial management information system (IFMIS) as a case, this paper explores how and why local actors engaged in counter-conduct against these reforms.

Design/methodology/approach

Interviews, observations and documentary analyses on the operationalisation of IFMIS constitute this paper's empirical basis. Theoretically, the paper draws on Foucauldian notions of governmentality and counter-conduct.

Findings

Empirics demonstrate how and why politicians and bureaucrats enacted ways of escaping, evading and subverting IFMIS's disciplinary regime. Politicians found the new accounting regime too constraining to their electoral and patronage politics and, therefore, enacted counter-conduct around the notion of political exigencies, creating expansionary fiscal conditions which the World Bank tried to mitigate through IFMIS. Perceiving the new regime as subverting their bureaucratic identity and influence, bureaucrats counter-conducted reforms through questioning, critiquing and rhetorical venting. Notably, the patronage politics of appropriating wealth and power underpins both these political and bureaucratic counter-conducts.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the critical accounting understanding of global public financial management reform failures by offering new empirical and theoretical insights as to how and why politicians and bureaucrats who are supposed to own and implement them nullify the global governmentality intentions of fiscal disciplining through subdued forms of resistance.

Details

Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal, vol. 37 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0951-3574

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 September 2023

Olumide O. Olaoye and Mulatu F. Zerihun

The study investigates the effectiveness of government policies to mitigate the impact of a pandemic. The study adopts the small open economy of Nigeria for the following reasons…

Abstract

Purpose

The study investigates the effectiveness of government policies to mitigate the impact of a pandemic. The study adopts the small open economy of Nigeria for the following reasons. First, Nigeria is the largest economy in SSA. Second, Nigeria was also significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employed the time-varying structural autoregressive (TVSVAR) model to control for the potential asymmetry in fiscal variables and to control for the shift in the structural shift, following a macroeconomic shock. As a form of robustness, the study also implements the time-varying Granger causality to formally assess the temporal instability of the variable of interest.

Findings

The results show that an oil price shock is an important source of macroeconomic instability in Nigeria. Importantly, the results indicate that the effects of fiscal policy are strongly time varying. Specifically, the results show that fiscal policy helps to stabilize the economy, (i.e. they help to reduce inflation and spur output growth) following macroeconomic shock. Further, the Granger test shows that fiscal policy helped to spur growth in Nigeria. The research and policy implications are discussed.

Originality/value

The study accounts for the time-varying effects of fiscal policy.

Details

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, vol. 15 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-0705

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 April 2024

José Alves and José Coelho

We investigate the role of fiscal policy, through several measures of government revenues and expenditures and redistribution, on disposable and market income inequality and…

Abstract

Purpose

We investigate the role of fiscal policy, through several measures of government revenues and expenditures and redistribution, on disposable and market income inequality and economic growth as well as the interaction between inequality and growth for 31 European countries from 1995 to 2019.

Design/methodology/approach

We use a simultaneous equations model to assess the linkage between economic growth, inequalities and fiscal policy variables.

Findings

(1) While disposable income inequality has a negative effect on all fiscal policy variables, market income inequality has a mixed effects; (2) for Eastern European countries, public consumption and direct taxation positively influence economic growth; conversely, for Western European countries, the effects are negative; (3) disposable and market income inequality have a positive effect on growth for Eastern European countries, and a negative influence on growth for Western European countries; (4) growth contributes to the increase of disposable and market income inequality for Eastern European countries; for Western European countries, the effects are opposite; and (5) fiscal policy allows for the attenuation of disposable income inequality.

Originality/value

The different results between the role of market and disposable income inequality levels lead us to suggest tax progressivity as an important feature to consider when analyse the trivariate relationship between inequalities, fiscal policy and growth. Furthermore, there are different dynamics between inequality and growth, and the role of fiscal policy, on both Eastern and Western European countries.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

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