Search results
1 – 10 of over 1000Burcu Adivar and Ebru Selin Selen
This study aims to analyze the epidemic modeling applications and policy‐making strategies for six different infectious diseases in a number of countries, thus comparing and…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to analyze the epidemic modeling applications and policy‐making strategies for six different infectious diseases in a number of countries, thus comparing and contrasting research in underdeveloped, developing, and developed countries.
Design/methodology/approach
A systematic review has been conducted by identifying relevant studies for six diseases from different sources and selecting 74 publications for inclusion. These selected publications are classified and analyzed based on infectious disease, control policies, theme and objective, methodology, origin of population data, publication year and results.
Findings
Review results indicate that disaster preparedness and surveillance plans for epidemics are available mostly for developed countries. There is a need for further research in both developing and developed countries because of the ease of dispersion, which constitutes a universal threat. Analysis of the publications suggests that epidemic disasters are mostly studied by researchers in the field of medicine or biology with the aim of assessing the potential impact of an epidemic. The authors highlight the need for further research in operations research and disaster management fields and propose further research directions in the area of disaster management.
Social implications
This review emphasizes the importance of epidemic disaster modeling for the preparedness stage of disaster management and policy making. Disease and population‐specific intervention policies (e.g. vaccination) reported in this review should set an example and help policy makers during their decision making.
Originality/value
Potential use of the epidemiological modeling on further planning and decision‐making issues in the context of disaster management is studied for the first time.
Details
Keywords
Harsuminder Kaur Gill, Vivek Kumar Sehgal and Anil Kumar Verma
Epidemics not only affect the public health but also are a threat to a nation's growth and economy as well. Early prediction of epidemic can be beneficial to take preventive…
Abstract
Purpose
Epidemics not only affect the public health but also are a threat to a nation's growth and economy as well. Early prediction of epidemic can be beneficial to take preventive measures and to reduce the impact of epidemic in an area.
Design/methodology/approach
A deep neural network (DNN) based context aware smart epidemic system has been proposed to prevent and monitor epidemic spread in a geographical area. Various neural networks (NNs) have been used: LSTM, RNN, BPNN to detect the level of disease, direction of spread of disease in a geographical area and marking the high-risk areas. Multiple DNNs collect and process various data points and these DNNs are decided based on type of data points. Output of one DNN is used by another DNN to reach to final prediction.
Findings
The experimental evaluation of the proposed framework achieved the accuracy of 87% for the synthetic dataset generated for Zika epidemic in Brazil in 2016.
Originality/value
The proposed framework is designed in a way that every data point is carefully processed and contributes to the final decision. These multiple DNNs will act as a single DNN for the end user.
Details
Keywords
Oluwole Owoye and Olugbenga A. Onafowora
The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine whether the massive spreads and fatalities of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA, the country with the most advanced medical…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine whether the massive spreads and fatalities of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA, the country with the most advanced medical technology in the world, are symptomatic of leadership failure. The authors posit that when political leaders, such as the President of the USA, in conjunction with a group of state governors and city mayors, employed conspiracy theories and disinformation to achieve their political goals, they contributed to the massive spreads and fatalities of the virus, and they also undermined the credibility of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the health-care professionals in providing the pertinent control guidelines and true scientific-based medical information.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors conducted a review of current studies that address the handling of global infectious diseases to build a better understanding of the issue of pandemics. They then employed a theoretical framework to link the massive spreads and fatalities of the COVID-19 pandemic to political leaders, such as President Trump and the group of obsequious state governors and city mayors, who propagated conspiracy theories and disinformation through social media platforms to downplay the severity of the virus. The authors compared the massive spreads and fatalities of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA under President Trump to President Obama who handled H1N1, Ebola, Zika and Dengue. More importantly, the authors compared President Trump's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic to other political leaders in advanced countries where there were no concerted efforts to spread conspiracy theories and disinformation about the health risks of COVID-19 pandemic.
Findings
The authors' theoretical analysis alluded to the fact that political leaders, such as President Trump, who are engulfed in self-deceptions, self-projections and self-aggrandizements would engage in self-promotion and avoid accountability for their missteps in handling global pandemic shocks. In contrast, political leaders in other advanced countries did not downplay the severity thus their ability to curtail the spreads and fatalities of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Research limitations/implications
The theoretical viewpoints presented in this paper along with the derivations of the spreads–fatalities curtailment coefficients and the spread–fatality upsurge coefficients under Presidents Obama and Trump, respectively, may not be replicable. Given this plausible limitation, future research may need to provide a deep analysis of the amplifications of conspiracy theories and disinformation because they are now deeply rooted in the political economy of the USA. Furthermore, since scientists and medical professionals may not be able to forecast future epidemics or pandemics with pin-point accuracy nor predict how political leaders would disseminate health risks information associated with different pathogens, it is imperative that future research addresses the positive or adverse effects of conspiracy theories and disinformation that are now easily propagated simultaneously through different social media platforms, which are currently protected under Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act. The multiplier effects of conspiracy theories and disinformation will continue to amplify the division about the authenticity of COVID-19 pandemic and the emergence or reemergence of other pathogens in the foreseeable future.
Originality/value
The authors derived the unique spreads-fatalities curtailment coefficients to demonstrate how President Obama used effective collaboration and coordination at all levels of government in conjunction with medical experts to curtail the spreads and fatalities associated with H1N1, Ebola, Zika and Dengue. They further derived the spreads-fatalities upsurge coefficients to highlight how President Trump contributed to the spreads and fatalities of COVID-19 pandemic through his inability to collaborate and coordinate with state governors, city mayors and different health-care agencies at the national and international levels.
Details
Keywords
Elise E. Racine and Joanna J. Bryson
As illustrated by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), epidemic models are powerful health policy tools critical for disease prevention and control, i.e. if they are fit for…
Abstract
Purpose
As illustrated by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), epidemic models are powerful health policy tools critical for disease prevention and control, i.e. if they are fit for purpose. How do people ensure this is the case and where does health education fit in?
Design/methodology/approach
This research takes a multidisciplinary approach combining qualitative secondary and primary data from a literature review, interviews and surveys. The former spans academic literature, grey literature and course curriculum, while the latter two involve discussions with various modeling stakeholders (educators, academics, students, modeling experts and policymakers) both within and outside the field of epidemiology.
Findings
More established approaches (compartmental models) appear to be favored over emerging techniques, like agent-based models. This study delves into how formal and informal education opportunities may be driving this preference. Drawing from other fields, the authors consider how this can be addressed.
Practical implications
This study offers concrete recommendations (course design routed in active learning pedagogies) as to how health education and, by extension, policy can be reimagined post-COVID to make better use of the full range of epidemic modeling methods available.
Originality/value
There is a lack of research exploring how these methods are taught and how this instruction influences which methods are employed. To fill this gap, this research uniquely engages with modeling stakeholders and bridges disciplinary silos to build complimentary knowledge.
Details
Keywords
This paper attempts to discuss the synergies between the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and Ebola preparedness and response – with a specific outlook about how the five (5…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper attempts to discuss the synergies between the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and Ebola preparedness and response – with a specific outlook about how the five (5) targets in SDG.3 can be prioritized and integrated into the measures taken against the battle of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the Democratic Republic Congo (DRC) as well as any other sporadic health disasters and emergencies elsewhere.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper draws on the published literature, including reports, peer-reviewed articles, statistical data and relevant documents identified from authenticated sources.
Findings
Sustainable development, which is the nitty-gritty of SDGs, is underscored as a germane in almost all regional and international frameworks. However, as traditional natural hazards persist, alongside the persistence of civil conflicts and instability, socioeconomic challenges such as EVD pose serious hindrances to SDGs, and achieving them by 2030 might be a deferred dream, especially in low- and middle-income countries such as DRC.
Practical implications
This paper will help to inform the decisions of bureaucrats at different levels, especially those aimed at promoting and integrating health into sustainable development.
Originality/value
The recent 2018 EVD outbreaks in DRC, which galvanized the regional and global attention, call for an approach that elucidates an interaction between the SDGs and countermeasures of responding to this deadly disease in the DRC and elsewhere.
Details
Keywords
Marcin Roszkowski and Bartłomiej Włodarczyk
The paper aims to present the development of conceptualization of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) based on associations with other articles on English edition of Wikipedia…
Abstract
Purpose
The paper aims to present the development of conceptualization of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) based on associations with other articles on English edition of Wikipedia. The main goal of the paper is to study the social organization of knowledge about COVID-19 within the Wikipedia community of practice.
Design/methodology/approach
The methodological approach taken in this study was based on the application of Moscovici's theory of social representations to Wikipedia's knowledge organization system (KOS). Internal links in the Wikipedia article about COVID-19 were considered anchors in its social representations. Each link in the introductory part of the article was considered an indicator of the semantic relationship between COVID-19 and other concepts from Wikipedia's knowledge base. The subject of this study was links extracted from all revisions of the COVID-19 article between February and September 2020. Qualitative and quantitative analyses were performed on these conceptual structures using both synchronic and diachronic approaches.
Findings
It was found that the evolution of anchors in the Wikipedia article on COVID-19 was in line with the mechanism of symbolic coping related to infectious disease. It went through stages of divergence, convergence and normalization. It shows that this mechanism governs the social organization of knowledge related to COVID-19 on Wikipedia.
Originality/value
No studies have been devoted to the image of COVID-19 as presented by the evolution of links in Wikipedia and its implications for knowledge organization (KO).
Details
Keywords
Ahmad A. Alhusban, Safa A. Alhusban and Mohammadward A. Alhusban
The purpose of this research is to conduct a comparative analysis of the views of architects and urban designers in the West and the Middle East on whether the COVID-19 pandemic…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this research is to conduct a comparative analysis of the views of architects and urban designers in the West and the Middle East on whether the COVID-19 pandemic could affect architecture and urban design shortly and what is the future of our home design? A further purpose was to explore and explain how the pandemic will change the future of architecture and urban design by reviewing, analyzing and synthesizing different and related viewpoints to create a grounded theory, hoping to provide some insight for the entire world.
Design/methodology/approach
Different research methods were used to achieve the research purposes including grounded theory, desk reviews, reviewing the limited existing literature and semi-structured interviews.
Findings
This research found that most surveyed architects believed that the COVID-19 pandemic would affect the future of architecture and urban design and help to create new design features. Future concentration will be in living, working, learning, leisure and teaching spaces. All future designs should be independent, self-sufficient in terms of power and water usage and using nonrenewable energy sources. The home design should focus on the interior design, transparency, open to the inside (introverted spaces), quality of life, natural daylighting and ventilation, healthy indoor air quality, use of plants and natural materials, green roof, the relationships between indoor and outdoor spaces and quality of building materials. Additionally, transitional space is an important primary entry point to the home. Moreover, folding furniture may be a solution to enlarge the room when needed and turn it into multifunctional spaces. The home office will no longer be a small desk, chair and lamp located at the small corner anywhere. The future home office should be equipped with all the necessary technology. The open-plan design trend and the concept of flow space will not exist anymore. The pandemic will encourage the use of touchless and smart technologies in design and construction. There is a need to separate heating and ventilation systems in detached houses and multistory buildings to avoid infectious diseases. Social norms have changed over a few weeks of social distancing. Therefore, we can change the system of negative habits, old traditions and society’s bad behaviors.
Practical implications
This research raises many proactive ideas, and the results are relevant to all actors in the construction sector, as it contains findings of understanding how the interaction of people with the built external or internal environment evolved during the pandemic process. In this sense, it will provide socio and economic benefits for the society in terms of seeking an answer to the question of “how should we design” for possible new bad scenarios to evolve the spaces in the “lockdown” situation. This research discusses how to make our homes comfortable and ready for an extraordinary time, suggested a practical design solution based on construction technologies.
Social implications
This research links theory to practice, and it facilitates the adaptation to the current situation. It has a high impact on society, as it guides designers to rethink spaces that can help occupants face the COVID-19 pandemic challenges. Therefore, it should create and implement architectural design guidelines for health and safety. The architects should think about how to create and organize multifunctional, flexible, aesthetical, healthy and clean spaces under the new roles of interaction and social distancing. Architects should incorporate technological and innovations from different fields to organize spaces, promote public health and enhance the quality of life.
Originality/value
Architecture and urban design suddenly become medical, and we can use the built environment as a way to control epidemic spread. Additionally, and by reviewing the literature, there is no published qualitative research that has been explored on how the COVID-19 pandemic will change the future of architecture and urban design, but there are some personal viewpoints and short interviews. This topic is a new growing concern and becoming a top social topic and priority for policymaking in the world. The topic is important in terms of design input for designers to create new living spaces, as it includes the views and observations of architects from the east and west to the pandemic process. We have all been encouraged to reimagine the space in which we live, how the place fits our needs, how we use it and enjoy it during the pandemic. Therefore, this paper appeals to an international readership by linking the COVID-19 situation to architectural design.
Details
Keywords
Melanie O’Brien and Maria Ximena Tolosa
The purpose of this paper is to provide an analysis of the disproportionate impact of the 2014 West Africa Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic on women, presenting an assessment of…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to provide an analysis of the disproportionate impact of the 2014 West Africa Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic on women, presenting an assessment of how this impact in particular is linked with violence against women and women’s right to health, and a critique of improvements that could avoid discrimination against women in healthcare crises.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper covers conceptual understandings of, and utilises a human rights law and public health lens to analyse how the EVD epidemic in West Africa both directly and indirectly caused greater harm to women and girls. All these factors which represent intersectional violations of the human rights of women are examined with a focus on violence against women and the right to health.
Findings
There are multiple reasons why the EVD outbreak harmed women disproportionately, and this intersectionality of discrimination must be considered in any response to a public health crisis. Addressing the vulnerability of women and girls to all forms of violence involves the coordinated efforts of public health, legal and political actors to empower women.
Originality/value
Specific issues of the 2014 West Africa EVD outbreak have been examined in medical journals, but there have been no academic studies that present a cross-disciplinary analysis of the gender concerns. This paper combines a public health perspective with a human rights law viewpoint in order to consider the impact of the EVD outbreak on women and provide suggestions as to how discrimination and disadvantage of women in such health crises can be avoided.
Details
Keywords
Kuan Yang, Ermei Wang, Yinggao Zhou and Kai Zhou
The purpose of this paper is to use analytical method and optimization tools to suggest time-optimal vaccination program for a basic SIR epidemic model with mass action contact…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to use analytical method and optimization tools to suggest time-optimal vaccination program for a basic SIR epidemic model with mass action contact rate when supply is limited.
Design/methodology/approach
The Lagrange Multiplier Method and Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle are used to explore optimal control strategy and obtain analytical solution for the control system to minimize the total cost of disease with boundary constraint. The numerical simulation is done with Matlab using the sequential linear programming method to illustrate the impact of parameters.
Findings
The result highlighted that the optimal control strategy is Bang-Bang control – to vaccinate with maximal effort until either all of the resources are used up or epidemic is over, and the optimal strategies and total cost of vaccination are usually dependent on whether there is any constraint of resource, however, the optimal strategy is independent on the relative cost of vaccination when the supply is limited.
Practical implications
The research indicate a practical view that the enhancement of daily vaccination rate is critical to make effective initiatives to prevent epidemic from out breaking and reduce the costs of control.
Originality/value
The analysis of the time-optimal application of outbreak control is of clear practical value and the introducing of resource constraint in epidemic control is of realistic sense, these are beneficial for epidemiologists and public health officials.
Details
Keywords
Hong Kong was particularly affected by the 2003 outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). During the epidemic, it seemed as if the Hong Kong government and health…
Abstract
Purpose
Hong Kong was particularly affected by the 2003 outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). During the epidemic, it seemed as if the Hong Kong government and health system were barely coping, leading to calls of mismanagement and governance incapacity. In the wake of the SARS outbreak, two inquiries were conducted. The purpose of this article is to review the Hong Kong's response to SARS from the perspective of two inquiries.
Design/methodology/approach
An historical analysis of the institutional arrangements for health care delivery in Hong Kong is undertaken, followed by a chronology of developments in the SARS outbreak. The article then reviews outbreak management and the findings of the two inquiries. Finally, it considers whether the Hong Kong health system can be reformed to manage any future infectious disease epidemic better.
Findings
Both leadership and coherency were lacking in Hong Kong's response to SARS. These are age‐old problems in the Hong Kong health sector. The prospects for mending the health system appear limited, given that leadership and coherency have been consistently absent features of post‐1997 governance in Hong Kong.
Research limitations/implications
This article reviews events in the immediate period following the SARS outbreak. A future follow‐up study of the Hong Kong government and health system's capacity to respond to infectious disease outbreaks would be useful.
Practical implications
This article provides a review that will be useful to policymakers and researchers.
Originality/value
No other article reviews the Hong Kong health system's SARS response.
Details