Search results

The purpose of this paper is to re-examine the weak form efficiency of five African stock markets (South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Ghana and Mauritius) using various tests to assess the impact of non-linearity effect and thin trading which are prevalent in African markets on market efficiency.

The weekly returns of S&P/IFC return indices for five African countries over the period 2000-2013 were obtained from DataStream and analyzed. The study adopted the newly developed Non-Linear Fourier unit root test advanced by Enders and Lee (2004, 2009) which allows for an unknown number of structural breaks with unknown functional forms and non-linearity in data generating process of stock prices series to test the Random Walk Hypothesis (RWH) for the five markets, and an augment regression model.

In light of the empirical evidence the author(s) using Non-linear Fourier Unit Root Test only fail to reject the RWH for South Africa, Nigeria and Egypt leading to the conclusion that these markets follow the RWH and weak-form efficient whilst Ghana and Mauritius are weak-form inefficient. Besides, evaluating non-linear models without adjusting for thin trading effect shows that, South Africa and Ghana markets are weak-form efficient while Nigeria, Egypt and Mauritius are not. However, after accounting for thin trading effect, the author(s) find that South Africa and Egypt markets follow the RWH. The findings imply that market efficiency results depend on the methodology used.

This paper provides further evidence on stock market efficiency in emerging markets. The finding suggests that thin trading and non-linearity effect influences markets efficiency tests in African stock markets. Thus, recent structural adjustment and liberalization policies have not enhanced stock market operations in Africa. This paper therefore has implications for policy makers and international investors.

This study is to examine the three theme of the eπiciency of Korea foreign exchange market including the unbiasedness testing, the relative efficiency estimates, and the information spillover efficiency. Data using the analysis 81’e won-dollar spot and futures in domestic and won-dollar forward in offshore. i.e.. New York and Singapore NDF (non-delivery forward).

The empirical results are summarized as follows: First. the efficient market or unbiasedness expectations hypothesis is not rejected in the won-dollar currency futures market apart from offshore New York and Singapore NDF markets. This indicates that the won-dollar futures price is likely to be an accurate indicator of future won-dollar spot prices without the trader having to pay a risk premium for the privilege of trading the contract. Second. the findings suggest the domestic won-dollar futures market is 13.58% efficient. the Singapore offshore won-dollar NDF market is 11.38% efficient. and the New York offshore won-dollar NDF market is 2.68% efficient. This indicates that the domestic won-dollar futures market is more efficient than the offshore won-dollar NDF market. It is therefore possible to conclude that the domestic currency futures price is a relatively successful predictor of the future spot price. Third. the findings suggest the information spillover exists between domestic won-dollar spot/futures market and offshore won-dollar New York NDF market in both direction. This indicates that the two markets are efficiently linked.

Many prior tests of market efficiency, which occurred decades ago, were limited by data and did not employ methodology to correct for leptokurtosis in the stock return distribution. Furthermore, these studies did not test many aspects of conditional market efficiency. One aspect of a potential conditional violation of market efficiency is whether stock markets are efficient conditional on the level of stock return.

This paper uses quantile regressions to control for leptokurtosis in the stock return distribution and simultaneous quantile regressions to test whether markets are efficient conditional on the level of the market return. This paper uses market-level stock return data to bias against finding significant results in the efficiency tests. Furthermore, the author uses data from 1926 through 2018, providing the longest time period to date under which market efficiency is tested.

This paper presents evidence that the autoregressive coefficient decreases across return levels in stock market indices. The autoregressive coefficient is positive around highly negative returns and negative or insignificant around highly positive returns, which suggests that when stock returns are low they are more likely to continue lower, and when stock returns are high they are more likely to reverse. Results additionally suggest that market efficiency is not time-invariant and that stock markets have become more efficient over the sample period.

This paper extends the literature by finding evidence of a violation of weak-form market efficiency conditional on the level of stock returns. It further extends the literature by finding evidence that the stock market has become more efficient between 1926 and 2018.

The purpose of this paper is to boost the existing literature on adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) as it first time links predictability of gold, silver and metal returns with AMH which permits the predictability of returns to vary over time.

To know whether commodity (gold, silver and metal) market is efficient or not, the commodity returns are observed by using appropriate linear time series tests (variance ratio test, runs test and auto-correlation test). To capture the varying efficiency of three commodities, the study employs subsamples of five years and all sub-samples are exposed to linear econometric tests to reveal how market efficiency (independency of returns) has behaved over time.

It is found that the commodity market (gold, silver and metal) is adaptive because fluctuation is observed in the market efficiency. Returns of all three commodities go under the periods of efficiency and inefficiency. Thus, AMH is the better description of behavior of commodity markets than traditional efficient market hypothesis.

Choice of sub-sample in the study is the first limitation as the authors employ a sub-sample comprising five years. Second, commission, fee and taxes (transection cost) are ignored in the study. Finally, the results are reported on the basis of linear econometric tests. In future, longer time period sub-sample analysis is suggested by the study to explore the varying nature of the commodities. Moreover, rolling window analysis may be a more appropriate method to elucidate the idea of AMH in further research. It is further suggested that the method used in the study could be helpful and adapted to examine other commodities (metal and agriculture), bonds and equity markets around the world.

The study will provide a better investment model which can enable the investors to seek more returns in future. Moreover, this research can be extended to explore multiple issues like adaptive behavior of returns from crypto currencies, bonds, stocks and real estate investment trusts.

As all the linear tests reveal that almost all the commodities show inefficient behavior in full sample period, it is clear that past prices widely would be helpful to predict the future prices at NYSE; furthermore, investors can use the time-varying information to reduce the risk of investment at NYSE. The study is helpful for individual investors as well as portfolio managers and brokers to forecast the prices on the bases of findings.

The paper identifies the need to study why behavior of commodity returns varies over time.

This paper participates in the debate on market efficiency and correct approach for asset pricing through a comprehensive review of literature in favor, as well as against the long held belief of market efficiency. The purpose of this paper is to understand emerging trends in behavioral finance and establish its future potential as a mainstream alternative theory of asset pricing.

The review and discussion of literature is mainly divided into three different sections that are –theories supporting efficient market hypothesis (EMH); studies providing evidences from the stock market on the failure of EMH and studies on behavioral finance, discussing separately investors’ behavioral biases keeping in mind their effect on stock prices; and providing empirical evidences on the effect of investor sentiment on stock prices.

The review of literature from both the point of views has helped in understanding the market efficiency issue and changing dynamics of asset pricing approach. This is achieved by highlighting the gaps in the concept of market efficiency and also suggesting how these gaps can be bridged with a superior approach such as behavioral finance. Through further discussion of emerging trends in behavioral finance, the paper also points out gaps and how these can be abridged, for behavioral finance to be accepted as a mainstream alternative approach to EMH.

This is an extensive and one of a kind study that discusses market efficiency through discussion of EMH and behavioral finance side by side. With the help of such a study, researchers can precisely understand the need and can focus on the future course of action to make behavioral finance a mainstream approach to asset pricing.

This study aims to find the response by stock market against the announcements of quarterly earnings is empirically tested by exploiting event study methodology. Efficient market hypothesis (EMH) on Saudi stock exchange is also tried on.

The market model is applied to help gauge the expected returns and to illustrate abnormal returns around the event date.

The results established that Saudi Stock Market does not bear semi-strong form of EMH. How efficient is the Saudi market is also reflected through evidence of significant abnormal returns and post-earnings announcement drift around earning announcements dates.

The authors have not used analysts’ forecast as the expected earnings which are the limitation. As mentioned earlier, the authors used the quarterly earnings of the previous year as a proxy and that proxy could have been replaced by analysts’ forecast. Another limitation is that the trading volume in the event window is not considered.

The behavior of Saudi capital market is of much concern, and the study of this with a perspective of EMH is the significance of this paper.

All stakeholders closely watch earnings announcements and its share price movement around the announcement date. Recently, Saudi Arabia has opened its doors to foreign investors, and big foreign investors are going to enter into Saudi capital market, and after their entry, the behavior of market could be different. In the authors’ opinion, this is the right time to study the efficiency of Saudi market before the entry of foreign investors.

This study is based on the gap created by EMH of Saudi market using event methodology, observed in the existing literature, and it will be a contribution to literature.

The paper aims to find the functional relationship among 14 shampoo brands' price, quality, marketing expense and sales in the Chinese shampoo industry. Also studied is which one, among these factors, is the more important.

By using data envelopment analysis models, the authors propose to maximize the sale allocating efficiency scores to satisfy the hypothesis that the shampoo market is efficient, and then, the sales functions, linear and exponential, can be determined and specified.

It is found that an exponential sales function is more suitable to characterize the Chinese shampoo industry, and the price factor is a major influence on creating sales.

The paper proposes a method, from an original perspective, to analyze the sales function among the influence factors and to determine which one is more important. The method can be applied to other markets if the assumed conditions could be satisfied.

During the last decade or so there has been a huge outpouring of empirical studies of the efficient capital market hypothesis (ECMH). These studies are of potential use to the financial manager, not just as indicators of the extent to which capital markets are efficient, but more importantly as indicators as to the effects of certain financial policies and activity on a company's share price.

We discuss the ways in which the tensions between deregulation and bailouts create fundamentally inefficient markets. Although there is an appetite for the rhetoric of a laissez-fair economic system in the United States, we do not have the political will to operate such a system, as there are always cries for bailouts when a crisis emerges. And bailouts rob markets of the crucial ability to discipline capital for risky behavior. Using the case of China as an example, we argue that the post-Cold War conclusion that state ownership is fundamentally inefficient is premature. The key issue is not state versus private ownership per se but, rather, how well aligned the incentives are within a given system. Some of the economic models we find in reform-era China are actually better aligned and perhaps as transparent as their counterparts in the market economies of the capitalist West. Finally, because China is not caught up on the categorical assumption that private firms are efficient while state-owned firms are inefficient, the country has been able to be an institutional innovator in the area of public–private partnerships, leading to radical new corporate forms.