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1 – 10 of 505
Open Access
Article
Publication date: 20 October 2023

Kingstone Nyakurukwa and Yudhvir Seetharam

The authors’ goal is to provide an overview and historical context for the various alternatives to the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) that have emerged over time. The authors…

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Abstract

Purpose

The authors’ goal is to provide an overview and historical context for the various alternatives to the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) that have emerged over time. The authors found eight current alternatives that have emerged to address the EMH's flaws. Each of the proposed alternatives improves some of the assumptions made by the EMH, such as investor homogeneity, the immediate incorporation of information into asset values and the inadequacy of rationality to explain asset prices.

Design/methodology/approach

To come up with the list of studies relevant to this review article, the authors used three databases, namely Scopus, Web of Science and Google Scholar. The first two were mostly used to get peer-reviewed articles while Google Scholar was used to extract articles that are still work in progress. The following words were used as the search queries; “efficient market hypothesis” and “alternatives to the efficient market hypothesis”.

Findings

The alternatives to the EMH presented in this article demonstrate that market efficiency is a dynamic concept that can be best understood with a multidisciplinary approach. To better comprehend how financial markets work, it is crucial to draw on concepts, theories and ideas from a variety of disciplines, including physics, economics, anthropology, sociology and others.

Originality/value

The authors comprehensively summarise the current state of the behavioural finance literature on alternatives to the EMH.

Details

Journal of Capital Markets Studies, vol. 7 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-4774

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 December 2022

Malika Neifar and Leila Gharbi

The purpose of this paper is to test the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) using monthly data from 2004M08 to 2018M04 for two Canadian stock indices: the Islamic…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to test the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) using monthly data from 2004M08 to 2018M04 for two Canadian stock indices: the Islamic (DJICPI) and the conventional (CCSI). This paper investigates whether Islamic and/or conventional stock market would be efficient through the non-stationarity test of the stock indices.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors conduct the linearity test of Harvey et al. (2008) to identify whether the considered series has linear or nonlinear behavior. If the time series exhibits nonlinear evolution, then the authors apply nonlinear unit root tests (three KSS type tests and Sollis tests).

Findings

Linearity test results say that LCCSI has nonlinear behavior, while Dow Jones Islamic Canadian Price Index, LDJICPI, is a linear process. Then, the findings of this paper show that only Canadian Islamic Price Index (DJICPI) has the characteristics of random walk indicating that only conventional stock markets are inefficient. The major implication is that in Canada, fund managers and investors can (cannot) enjoy excess returns to their investment in conventional (Islamic) stock market.

Originality/value

Numerous empirical studies of the weak EMH are carried out within a linear framework. However, stock indices can show nonlinear behavior as a result of 2008 global financial crisis. To contribute to the existing literature on the Islamic and conventional stock market efficiency, the authors take into account both structural breaks and nonlinearity. Thus, as a testing strategy for weak EMH, the authors perform (Harvey et al., 2008) linearity test to examine the presence of nonlinear behavior and correct for outliers effect when it is needed.

Details

Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, vol. 14 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1759-0817

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 May 1995

Donald G. Margotta

Contests for corporate control often create a conflict between a legal principle, the business judgment rule (BJR), and an economics principle, the efficient market hypothesis (EMH

Abstract

Contests for corporate control often create a conflict between a legal principle, the business judgment rule (BJR), and an economics principle, the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). The BJR focuses on the process of decision making and requires managers to be guided by their integrity and diligence. The EMH focuses on outcomes and expects decisions to be guided by stock prices. Ideally the principles do not conflict, but when they do, when the market disagrees with managers' decisions, it is important to understand why. This article discusses the principles, why they sometimes conflict, and circumstances when one should outweigh the other.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 21 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Article
Publication date: 22 March 2019

David Peón, Manel Antelo and Anxo Calvo

The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) states that asset prices in financial markets always reflect all available information about economic fundamentals. The purpose of this paper…

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Abstract

Purpose

The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) states that asset prices in financial markets always reflect all available information about economic fundamentals. The purpose of this paper is to provide a guide as to which predictions of the EMH seem to be borne out by empirical evidence.

Design/methodology/approach

Rather than following the classic three groups of tests for the different forms of EMH that are common in the literature, the authors consider how the two alternative definitions of the EMH and the joint hypothesis problem impact on the tests and leave the controversy unsolved. The authors briefly report the antecedents, the main theoretical and empirical contributions and recent literature on each type of tests.

Findings

Eventually, as a summary for each type of tests, the authors provide a critical view on the main sources of acrimony between the alternative schools of thought in understanding asset price formation.

Originality/value

The paper may be seen as an up-to-date introductory review for researchers on the different tests of the EMH performed, and for newcomers to understand the key sources of acrimony between rationalists and behaviorists.

Details

Review of Accounting and Finance, vol. 18 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1475-7702

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 July 2021

Abbas Khan, Muhammad Yar Khan, Abdul Qayyum Khan, Majid Jamal Khan and Zia Ur Rahman

By testing the weak form of efficient market hypothesis (EMH) this study aims to forecast the short-term stock prices of the US Dow and Jones environmental socially responsible…

Abstract

Purpose

By testing the weak form of efficient market hypothesis (EMH) this study aims to forecast the short-term stock prices of the US Dow and Jones environmental socially responsible index (SRI) and Shariah compliance index (SCI).

Design/methodology/approach

This study checks the validity of the weak form of EMH for both SCI and SRI prices by using different parametric and non-parametric tests, i.e. augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Philip-Perron test, runs test and variance ratio test. If the EMH is invalid, the research further forecasts short-term stock prices by applying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model using daily price data from 2010 to 2018.

Findings

The research confirms that a weak form of EMH is not valid in the US SRI and SCI. The historical data can predict short-term future price movements by using technical ARIMA model.

Research limitations/implications

This study provides better guidance to risk-averse national and international investors to earn higher returns in the US SRI and SCI. This study can be extended to test the EMH of Islamic equity in the Middle East and North Africa region and other top Islamic indexes in the world.

Originality/value

This study is a new addition to the existing literature of equity investment and price forecasting by comparing and investigating the market efficiency of two interrelated US SRI and SCI.

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 5 April 2022

Rajesh Elangovan, Francis Gnanasekar Irudayasamy and Satyanarayana Parayitam

Despite volumes of research on the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) over the last six decades, the results are inconclusive as some studies supported the hypothesis, and some…

4376

Abstract

Purpose

Despite volumes of research on the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) over the last six decades, the results are inconclusive as some studies supported the hypothesis, and some studies rejected it. The study aims to examine the market efficiency of the Indian stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

For analysis, nine Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) broad market indices were selected covering the study period from 01 January 2011 to 31 December 2020. The data collected for this study are daily open, high, low and closing prices of selected indices. The tools used in this study are: (1) unit root test to check the stationarity of time series, (2) descriptive statistics, (3) autocorrelation and (4) runs test.

Findings

The empirical findings of the study reveal that BSE broad market indices do not follow a random walk and Indian stock market is as weak-form inefficient.

Research limitations/implications

The findings from this study provide several avenues for future research. One of the research implications is that anomalies in the statistical results by different academicians in the finance area need to be explained by future researchers.

Practical implications

Investment companies need to understand that extraordinary skills are required to beat the market to make abnormal returns. In an inefficient market where securities do not reflect the complete available information, it is challenging for the investment brokers to convince the customers about the portfolios they recommend to the public that the rate of return would be more than expected.

Social implications

As economic growth is related to the growth in the financial sector, developing countries like India depend on the accuracy of the information. In the presence of asymmetric information, the fluctuations in the stock market would have serious harmful consequences on the economy.

Originality/value

Amid several controversies surrounding the EMH testing, this study is a modest attempt to provide evidence that the Indian stock market is in weak-form inefficient. However, it is essential to link investors' behaviour and trends observed in the financial sector to fully understand the implications of EMH.

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. 27 no. 54
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2218-0648

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 31 May 2019

Aditya Sharma and Arya Kumar

This paper participates in the debate on market efficiency and correct approach for asset pricing through a comprehensive review of literature in favor, as well as against the…

5187

Abstract

Purpose

This paper participates in the debate on market efficiency and correct approach for asset pricing through a comprehensive review of literature in favor, as well as against the long held belief of market efficiency. The purpose of this paper is to understand emerging trends in behavioral finance and establish its future potential as a mainstream alternative theory of asset pricing.

Design/methodology/approach

The review and discussion of literature is mainly divided into three different sections that are –theories supporting efficient market hypothesis (EMH); studies providing evidences from the stock market on the failure of EMH and studies on behavioral finance, discussing separately investors’ behavioral biases keeping in mind their effect on stock prices; and providing empirical evidences on the effect of investor sentiment on stock prices.

Findings

The review of literature from both the point of views has helped in understanding the market efficiency issue and changing dynamics of asset pricing approach. This is achieved by highlighting the gaps in the concept of market efficiency and also suggesting how these gaps can be bridged with a superior approach such as behavioral finance. Through further discussion of emerging trends in behavioral finance, the paper also points out gaps and how these can be abridged, for behavioral finance to be accepted as a mainstream alternative approach to EMH.

Originality/value

This is an extensive and one of a kind study that discusses market efficiency through discussion of EMH and behavioral finance side by side. With the help of such a study, researchers can precisely understand the need and can focus on the future course of action to make behavioral finance a mainstream approach to asset pricing.

Details

Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, vol. 12 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-4179

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 August 2016

Raj S. Dhankar and Devesh Shankar

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the relevance and evolution of adaptive markets hypothesis (AMH) that has gained traction in the recent years, as it provides a dynamic…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the relevance and evolution of adaptive markets hypothesis (AMH) that has gained traction in the recent years, as it provides a dynamic perspective to the concept of informational efficiency.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper discusses several issues related to the concept of informationally efficient markets that have indicated efficient market hypothesis to be an incomplete portrayal of stock market behavior.

Findings

The authors find that a strict and perpetual adherence to informational efficiency is highly unlikely, and AMH provides a much more plausible description of the behavior of stock markets.

Originality/value

The authors provide a description of studies that examine the testable implications of AMH.

Article
Publication date: 1 January 1979

Richard Dobbins and Stephen F. Witt

The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) asserts that share prices fully reflect all available information, any new or shock information being very rapidly incorporated into the…

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Abstract

The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) asserts that share prices fully reflect all available information, any new or shock information being very rapidly incorporated into the share price. This apparently simple hypothesis, if true, has very powerful implications for investment analysis and corporate management.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 5 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Article
Publication date: 6 July 2021

Richa Pandey and V. Mary Jessica

The purpose of this study to evaluate the evolving market efficiency of the housing market under the framework of adaptive market hypothesis and martingale difference hypothesis

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study to evaluate the evolving market efficiency of the housing market under the framework of adaptive market hypothesis and martingale difference hypothesis taking a case of India.

Design/methodology/approach

The study used a wild bootstrap version of the generalized spectral (GS) test in the rolling window framework to measure possible time-varying linear and non-linear dependence in the housing market.

Findings

The study finds that the Indian housing market, in general, is not efficient, and this efficiency is dynamic, which changes with time lending support to the adaptive market hypothesis. The study confirms that the evolutionary model of individuals adapting to a changing environment via behavioural biases affects the efficiency of the housing market, which leads to the evolving efficiency of the housing market prices.

Research limitations/implications

The study believes that the potential implications go beyond evolutionary forces and the adaptive market hypothesis , which, does not only depend on an individual's decision-making process but also on social psychology. Thus, a further attempt in this line, taking into account the social psychology and quantitative rigour towards drivers of evolving efficiency is suggested for future research.

Practical implications

The study suggests that there is a possibility of extra returns for market players, but not always. The Indian housing market has witnessed several landmark reforms in recent years, so it is believed that these reforms would decrease the inefficiency level of this market. Contrary to this, the study’s findings reveal an increase in the inefficiency level in recent years. As the Indian housing market shows evolving efficiency, it is believed that the increased inefficiency is temporary. The increased inefficiency can be regarded as the settlement stage of the various policy and technical reforms.

Originality/value

Confirming the presence or absence of adaptive efficiency in the housing market under possible non-linear dependence will be a significant addition to the existing literature.

1 – 10 of 505