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In metropolitan areas experiencing rapid urbanization and housing production, the size of housing units emerges as a crucial factor to consider in housing policy formulation. This study aims to focus on Turkey, a developing country undergoing rapid urbanization and a construction boom in recent years, to examine households’ housing size preferences. Through a detailed analysis, this research delves into the causal relationships between income, education and housing size preferences.

This study uses the Family Structure Survey in Turkey 2016 data set collected nationwide by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat). To address potential endogeneity issues related to income and education levels in households’ choice of house size, an extended regression model is used. In addition, survey weights are applied to the statistical model to generalize the results of the study.

The study demonstrates that household income correlates with an increase in house size, while household education is associated with a decrease in house size. Variables such as household age, composition and vehicle ownership are found to impact the choice of house size. Particularly, one-person and couple-only households tend to prefer smaller dwellings compared to others. Lastly, the results reveal that the influence of household composition on dwelling size varies according to household age.

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the determinants influencing households’ housing size preferences within the framework of a developing country context, focusing on Turkey. It specifically offers insights into the causal impact of education and income levels on housing size preferences, as well as the intricate interplay between household characteristics in shaping these preferences.

Agricultural land loss is a severe issue that Australia faces, along with many other countries. Myriad research studies have discussed the reasons for such land loss, including urban sprawl as the main factor and factor's repercussions. However, there is a knowledge gap in understanding the impact of dwelling type on farming land reduction. Also, there is an application gap, particularly in the local context. The purpose of this study is to discover the effect of differing dwelling types (compact and non-compact) in metropolitan areas with a growing population (such as Craigieburn) toward potentially noticeable agricultural land loss.

This paper aims to fill these research and practice gaps through a case study using a mixed methods approach. A quantitative analysis was conducted of housing types, the types' growth and agricultural land area taken up by those different housing types over 18 years. Thematic analysis of policies, strategies, schemes and codes relevant to the case study enabled a better understanding of practice gaps.

The study revealed a significant loss of agricultural land. Separate housing was found to be the main culprit due to the number of houses and the area the houses require, thus exhibiting the lack of practical guidelines to prevent the houses' overdevelopment. The findings enabled the identification of opportunities for better practice through government intervention and potential industry alterations.

Previous literature has primarily explored the issues associated with urban sprawl and the sprawl's unsustainability. This research paper offers a more targeted insight into one of the key factors leading to urban sprawl: the types of dwellings being constructed.

The adverse impacts of climate change coupled with rapid informal urbanization in the Southern African region are increasing the vulnerability of already sensitive population groups. Consequently, these urban regions are highly vulnerable to urban heat island effects and heatwaves due to exogenous and endogenous factors. While the dynamic interplay between the built environment, climate and response strategies is known, this paper highlights the lived experience of informal settlement residents. It presents work from a project undertaken in Melusi, an informal settlement in Tshwane, South Africa, as a multi-disciplinary project focusing on improving the local resilience to climate change associated heat stress.

Following a mixed method approach, a semi-structured observational analysis of the spatial layout and material articulation of selected dwellings along with the continuous monitoring and recording of their indoor environments were undertaken.

The paper presents the research results in terms of the dwelling characteristics, as spatial and material-use strategies and documented heat stress exposure in these structures. The findings highlight that informal dwellings perform poorly in all cases due to endogenous factors and that inhabitants experience extreme heat stress conditions for between 6 and 10 h daily during the peak summer period.

Currently, there are little empirical data on the heat stress residents living in informal settlements in Southern Africa are experiencing. This article provides insight into the indoor environments of informal dwellings and hopes to contribute future guidelines or heat health policies.

This study aims to develop a modelling framework of housing supply dynamics within the context of urban microsimulation systems. Housing markets have witnessed substantial investigation over recent decades, predominantly concerning residential demand. However, comparatively limited attention has been directed towards comprehending the housing supply dynamics. Housing policy disconnects with the developers’ market behaviours, which leads to significant mismatch between the housing construction and affordable housing needs of the population. Research attention should be made in comprehending the residential construction market activities. To address this gap, this study developed an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and analyzed the temporal evolution of housing construction.

An ARDL model was developed to address the issue of temporal modelling of the housing supply. An empirical study was conducted in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) based on a longitudinal housing starts data set from 1998 to 2020. The model integrates diverse variables, including macroeconomic conditions, property development costs, dwelling prices and opportunity costs. Notably, the model captures both the path-dependent effects stemming from supply market fluctuations and the temporal lag effect of influential factors.

The findings reveal that the supply-side’s responsiveness to market condition alterations may span up to 18 months. The model has reasonable and satisfying performance in fitting the observed starts. The methodological foundations laid will facilitate future modelling of housing supply dynamics.

This study innovatively separated the modelling of housing supply within the context of urban microsimulation, into two parts, the modelling of housing starts and completion. The housing starts are determined in a complex and regressive process influenced by both the micro-economic environment and the construction cost and housing market trends. Through the temporal modelling method, this study captures how long it would take for the housing supply to respond to multiple factors and provides insight for urban planners in regulating the housing market and leveraging various policies to influence the housing supply.

Between 2006 and 2012, Mexico implemented a “frontal war against organized crime”. This strategy increased criminal violence and triggered negative consequences across the country’s economic, political and social spheres. This study aims to analyse how the magnitude and visibility of criminal violence impact the housing market of Mexico City.

The authors used different violent proxies to measure the effect of the magnitude and visibility of violence in housing prices. The structure of the data set is an unbalanced panel with no conditions of strict exogeneity. To address endogeneity, the authors calculate the first differences to estimate an Arellano–Bond estimator and use the lags of the dependent variable to instrumentalise the endogenous variable.

Results suggest that the magnitude of violence negatively impacts housing prices. Similarly, housing prices are negatively affected the closer the property is to visible violence, measured through narcomessages placed next to the bodies of executed victims. Lastly, housing prices are not always affected when a violent event occurs nearby, specifically, when neighbours or potential buyers consider this event as sporadic violence.

There are only a few studies of violence in housing prices using data from developing countries, and most of these studies are conducted with aggregated data at the municipality or state level. The authors are using geocoded information, both violence events and housing prices, to estimate more disaggregated effects. Moreover, the authors used different proxies to measure different characteristics of violence (magnitude and visibility) to estimate the heterogeneous effects of violence on housing prices.

House price fluctuations send vital signals to many parts of the economy, and long-term predictions of house prices are of great interest to governments and property developers. Although predictive models based on economic fundamentals are widely used, the common requirement for such studies is that underlying data are stationary. This paper aims to demonstrate the usefulness of alternative filtering methods for forecasting house prices.

We specifically focus on exponential smoothing with trend adjustment and multiplicative decomposition using median house prices for Sydney from Q3 1994 to Q1 2017. The model performance is evaluated using out-of-sample forecasting techniques and a robustness check against secondary data sources.

Multiplicative decomposition outperforms exponential smoothing at forecasting accuracy. The superior decomposition model suggests that seasonal and cyclical components provide important additional information for predicting house prices. The forecasts for 2017–2028 suggest that prices will slowly increase, going past 2016 levels by 2020 in the apartment market and by 2022/2023 in the detached housing market.

We demonstrate that filtering models are simple (univariate models that only require historical house prices), easy to implement (with no condition of stationarity) and widely used in financial trading, sports betting and other fields where producing accurate forecasts is more important than explaining the drivers of change. The paper puts forward a case for the inclusion of filtering models within the forecasting toolkit as a useful reference point for comparing forecasts from alternative models.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper undertakes the first systematic comparison of two filtering models for the Sydney housing market.

The primary aim of this research is to examine the effects of the Renovation, Conversion, and Extension (ROT) tax deduction for renovations on the scope and quality of renovations and its subsequent impact on house prices across various Swedish municipalities.

This study utilises a two-way fixed effect instrument variable (IV) spatial Manski approach, analysing balanced panel data from 2004 to 2020 at the municipal level (290 municipalities) in Sweden. The methodology is designed to assess the impact of the ROT subsidy on the housing market.

The study reveals that the ROT subsidy has significantly influenced house prices, with noticeable variations between municipalities. These differences are attributed to the varying amounts of tax reductions for renovations and the extent to which property owners utilise these subsidies.

The research is limited to the context of Sweden and may not be generalisable to other countries with different housing and subsidy policies. The findings are crucial for understanding the specific impacts of government subsidies on the housing market within this context.

For policymakers and stakeholders in the housing market, this study highlights the tangible effects of renovation subsidies on property values. It provides insights into how such financial incentives can shape the housing market dynamics.

The research underscores the role of government policies in potentially influencing equitable access to housing. It suggests that subsidies like ROT can have broader social implications, including the distribution of housing benefits among different income groups and regions.

This study contributes original insights into the field of applied real estate economics by quantitatively analysing the impact of a specific government subsidy on the housing market. It offers a unique perspective on how fiscal policies can affect property values and renovation activities at the municipal level in Sweden.

Informal housing stands out as a major challenge surrounding the massive reconstruction of Syrian cities, devastated by a bloody war and a terrible earthquake. The purpose of this article is to assess the adequacy of the Syrian Law to adequate provide a solution to this problem.

With the purpose of informing the question, this paper offers a legal-institutional analysis of the informal housing phenomenon and the corresponding regulatory responses in Syria. A literature review is conducted, and functional analysis of the legal texts and their effective implementation is provided.

First, informal housing in Syria has been fostered by the existence of an erratic regulation, particularly burdened by the incoherence of passing repressive provisions against informal housing while master plans were conspicuously absent or incomplete. Second, the regulatory policy seems to be leaning toward the urban renewal option, indicating a supply-oriented housing approach that may face serious challenges due to the scarcity of capital. In this context, regulation should not underestimate any policy tools at hand (renewal and upgrading; with the contribution of public, private and cooperative sectors).

Although there have been several studies on informal housing in Syria, none has taken a legal institutionalist approach. Furthermore, this study offers an up-to-date account of the problem, taking into account the problematic after the 2023 earthquake and the content of Law 2/2023.

After completion of this case study, students will be able to understand about characteristics of urban poor in the city of Mumbai which will aid in understanding about other emerging markets as well, to apply Health Belief Model to help students analyse behaviour change model, to apply social marketing strategies to popularize a social marketing cause, to learn about non-traditional intermediaries and apply to promote a social marketing cause, to apply Ansoff matrix and evaluate various strategies for growth and to analyse various challenges faced by social entrepreneurs and enable learners to arrive at solutions (applicable for social entrepreneurs and marketing executives).

This case study looked at a Mumbai-based organization, Medow Brite Enterprises, which sold sanitary napkins under the brand FeelOn to women particularly from urban poor background. The protagonist Mrs Ameeta Neel Ramesh was at the helm of the organization and was stuck with a dilemma – whether to enter rural markets or focus on selling incinerators and aid in disposing used sanitary napkins which was adding to the volume of non-biodegradable waste in the city. In 2019, Neel Ramesh made her first investment in Medow Brite. The organization had seen turbulent times during COVID-19 outbreak. However, Neel Ramesh with her astute strategy, helped the company get back on its feet. Medow Brite instead of manufacturing started procuring quality sanitary napkins from specific vendors. In contrast to many other sanitary napkins available in the market, FeelOn had cotton sanitary napkin variant without presence of plastic in the pads. Neel Ramesh had taken a different route for sale of her sanitary napkin, she conducted awareness sessions with the help of non-governmental organizations in various locations of Mumbai as well as Maharashtra. Post these sessions she sold her sanitary napkins among the attendees of the awareness sessions.

The case study can be included in marketing management course, consumer behaviour as well as social marketing courses in both undergraduate level and postgraduate level. In addition, the case study is also suitable for social entrepreneurs and marketing executives to discuss about non-traditional sales and marketing approaches, identifying unique segments and understanding behaviour change theories.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 8: Marketing.

The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary policy shift, from targeting money supply and exchange rate to inflation. The shifts have affected residential property market dynamics.

The Johansen cointegration approach was used to estimate the effects of changes in monetary policy proxies on residential property prices using quarterly data from 1980 to 2022.

Mortgage finance and economic growth have a significant positive long-run effect on residential property prices. The consumer price index, the inflation targeting framework, interest rates and exchange rates have a significant negative long-run effect on residential property prices. The Granger causality test has depicted that exchange rate significantly influences residential property prices in the short run, and interest rates, inflation targeting framework, gross domestic product, money supply consumer price index and exchange rate can quickly return to equilibrium when they are in disequilibrium.

There are limited arguments whether the inflation targeting monetary policy framework in South Africa has prevented residential property market boom and bust scenarios. The study has found that the implementation of inflation targeting framework has successfully reduced booms in residential property prices in South Africa.