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Article
Publication date: 22 March 2024

Amira Said and Chokri Ouerfelli

This paper aims to examine the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and hedging ratios between Dow Jones markets and oil, gold and bitcoin. Using daily data, including the…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and hedging ratios between Dow Jones markets and oil, gold and bitcoin. Using daily data, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war. We employ the DCC-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and asymmetric DCC (ADCC)-GARCH models.

Design/methodology/approach

DCC-GARCH and ADCC-GARCH models.

Findings

The most of DCCs among market pairs are positive during COVID-19 period, implying the existence of volatility spillovers (Contagion-effects). This implies the lack of additional economic gains of diversification. So, COVID-19 represents a systematic risk that resists diversification. However, during the Russia–Ukraine war the DCCs are negative for most pairs that include Oil and Gold, implying investors may benefit from portfolio-diversification. Our hedging analysis carries significant implications for investors seeking higher returns while hedging their Dow Jones portfolios: keeping their portfolios unhedged is better than hedging them. This is because Islamic stocks have the ability to mitigate risks.

Originality/value

Our paper may make a valuable contribution to the existing literature by examining the hedging of financial assets, including both conventional and Islamic assets, during periods of stability and crisis, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 25 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 May 2024

Abdul Qoyum, Rizqi Umar AlHashfi, Mamduh Mahmadah Hanafi, Hassanudin Mohd Thas Thaker and Jaenal Effendi

This study aims to empirically investigates the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on ethical and nonethical stocks in Indonesia. Ethical stocks which are characterized by…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to empirically investigates the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on ethical and nonethical stocks in Indonesia. Ethical stocks which are characterized by moral-based companies’ activities and lower debt are expected to have better resilience during the COVID-19 crisis compared to nonethical stock.

Design/methodology/approach

This study observes 589 firms of ethical and nonethical stock during sample periods ranging from March 2, 2020 (first case announced) to June 30, 2021. Panel regression, with some control variables, was applied.

Findings

Testing firms in Indonesia revealed a significant difference in stock resilience, in which ethical stock has a better resilience compared to nonethical, with Islamic socially responsible investment (SRI) stock having the highest resilience, followed by Islamic stock and then SRI stock. This study documents a significant effect of some financial criteria on the stock resilience, namely, return market (RM), market capitalization (MCAP) and share turnover (TURN). Overall, after splitting the sample into different time horizons, this study consistently reveals that ethical firms have better resilience compared to nonethical stocks.

Research limitations/implications

This study makes several contributions to the literature on Islamic finance, especially concerning Islamic screening with SRI factors. In practical terms, this study supports the argument that focusing on integrating environmental, social and governance criteria in sharia screening will improve the quality of Islamic firms. The “Islamic” label is not only a marketing label but also a quality certification.

Originality/value

This study can be used as a reference for developing Islamic finance more focused on sustainability issues including socioeconomic and human development by improving the quality of screening of Islamic firms. Therefore, this study suggests that the establishment of Islamic SRI index is very crucial and significant to promote ethical-based investment.

Details

Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1759-0817

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 September 2022

Rania Zghal, Amel Melki and Ahmed Ghorbel

This present work aims at looking into whether or not introducing commodities in international equity portfolios helps reduce the market risk and if hedging is carried out with…

Abstract

Purpose

This present work aims at looking into whether or not introducing commodities in international equity portfolios helps reduce the market risk and if hedging is carried out with the same effectiveness across different regional stock markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors determine the optimal hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness of a number of commodity-hedged emerging and developed equity markets, using three versions of MGARCH model: DCC, ADCC and GO-GARCH. The authors also use a rolling window estimation procedure for the purpose of constructing out-of-sample one-step-ahead forecasts of dynamic conditional correlations and optimal hedge ratios.

Findings

Empirical results evince that commodities significantly display effective risk-reducing hedge instruments in short and long runs. The main finding is that commodities do not seem to hedge regional stock markets in the same way. They tend to provide evidence of a rather effective hedging regarding mainly the East European and Latin American stock markets.

Originality/value

The authors study whether commodities can hedge stock markets at regional context and if hedging effectiveness differ from one region to another.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 19 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 September 2023

Mohammed Ayoub Ledhem and Warda Moussaoui

This paper aims to apply several data mining techniques for predicting the daily precision improvement of Jakarta Islamic Index (JKII) prices based on big data of symmetric…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to apply several data mining techniques for predicting the daily precision improvement of Jakarta Islamic Index (JKII) prices based on big data of symmetric volatility in Indonesia’s Islamic stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

This research uses big data mining techniques to predict daily precision improvement of JKII prices by applying the AdaBoost, K-nearest neighbor, random forest and artificial neural networks. This research uses big data with symmetric volatility as inputs in the predicting model, whereas the closing prices of JKII were used as the target outputs of daily precision improvement. For choosing the optimal prediction performance according to the criteria of the lowest prediction errors, this research uses four metrics of mean absolute error, mean squared error, root mean squared error and R-squared.

Findings

The experimental results determine that the optimal technique for predicting the daily precision improvement of the JKII prices in Indonesia’s Islamic stock market is the AdaBoost technique, which generates the optimal predicting performance with the lowest prediction errors, and provides the optimum knowledge from the big data of symmetric volatility in Indonesia’s Islamic stock market. In addition, the random forest technique is also considered another robust technique in predicting the daily precision improvement of the JKII prices as it delivers closer values to the optimal performance of the AdaBoost technique.

Practical implications

This research is filling the literature gap of the absence of using big data mining techniques in the prediction process of Islamic stock markets by delivering new operational techniques for predicting the daily stock precision improvement. Also, it helps investors to manage the optimal portfolios and to decrease the risk of trading in global Islamic stock markets based on using big data mining of symmetric volatility.

Originality/value

This research is a pioneer in using big data mining of symmetric volatility in the prediction of an Islamic stock market index.

Details

Journal of Modelling in Management, vol. 19 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-5664

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 December 2022

Mumtaz Ali, Ahmed Samour, Foday Joof and Turgut Tursoy

This study aims to assess how real income, oil prices and gold prices affect housing prices in China from 2010 to 2021.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to assess how real income, oil prices and gold prices affect housing prices in China from 2010 to 2021.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a novel bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) testing to empirically analyze the short and long links among the tested variables.

Findings

The ARDL estimations demonstrate a positive impact of oil price shocks and real income on housing market prices in both the phrases of the short and long run. Furthermore, the results reveal that gold price shocks negatively affect housing prices both in the short and long run. The result can be attributed to China’s housing market and advanced infrastructure, resulting in a drop in housing prices as gold prices increase. Additionally, the prediction of housing market prices will provide a base and direction for housing market investors to forecast housing prices and avoid losses.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to analyze the effect of gold price shocks on housing market prices in China.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 September 2023

Manuel Lobato, Javier Rodríguez and Herminio Romero-Perez

This study aims to examine the herding behavior of socially responsible exchange traded funds (SR ETFs) in comparison to conventional ETFs during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the herding behavior of socially responsible exchange traded funds (SR ETFs) in comparison to conventional ETFs during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

To test for herding behavior, the authors use the cross-sectional absolute deviation and a quadratic market model.

Findings

During the pandemic, investments in socially responsible financial products grew rapidly. And investors in the popular SR ETFs herd during this special period, while holders of conventional ETFs did not.

Practical implications

Investors in socially responsible investments must do their own research and make their own financial decisions, rather than follow the crowd, especially during extreme events like the COVID-19 pandemic.

Originality/value

The evidence shows that, during the pandemic, socially responsible ETFs behaved in line with theoretical predictions of herding, that is, herding is more significant during extreme market conditions.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 16 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 January 2024

Jayalakshmy Ramachandran, Joan Hidajat, Selma Izadi and Andrew Saw Tek Wei

This study investigates the influence of corporate income tax on two corporate financial decisions — dividend and capital structure policies, particularly for Shariah compliant…

Abstract

Purpose

This study investigates the influence of corporate income tax on two corporate financial decisions — dividend and capital structure policies, particularly for Shariah compliant companies in Malaysia.

Design/methodology/approach

The study considered data from a sample of 529 Malaysian listed companies from four industrial sectors from 2007–2021 (6,746 company-year observations, before eliminating outliers). Panel models such as Fixed Effect and Random effect models were used. The study specifically tested the effect of corporate income tax on dividend and capital structure policies for Shariah compliant companies (3,148 observations) and controlled for industrial sectors.

Findings

(1) Firms are mostly Shariah-compliant, less liquid, less profitable and smaller in size, (2) Broadly when analysed together, tax has no impact on debt-equity ratio while it has an impact on dividend per share, (3) However, when tested separately for Shariah compliant companies, the influence of effective tax on capital structure is very evident but not for dividend and (4) influence of industrial sector on the relationship between corporate tax and capital structure and dividend policy is significant. Results indicate that Shariah firms might be raising debt to gain tax advantage. Companies in general pay dividends to avoid reputational damage.

Research limitations/implications

This study assumes that leverage and dividend policy decisions are the main outcomes of the changing tax policies, while it seems that there could be other important outcomes that can be tested in future research. The study also shows the changing tax regimes of different ASEAN countries but they have not been tested to see the differences between countries. It will be indeed interesting for future researchers to focus on this aspect.

Originality/value

The findings contribute to the literature on tax planning of the Shariah-compliant firms, a high growth business segment in the Asian context. The study discussed potential tax-based Islamic market product development.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 50 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 May 2024

Geeta Kapur, Sridhar Manohar, Amit Mittal, Vishal Jain and Sonal Trivedi

Candlestick charts are a key tool for the technical analysis of cryptocurrency price fluctuations. It is essential to examine trends in the time series of a financial asset when…

Abstract

Purpose

Candlestick charts are a key tool for the technical analysis of cryptocurrency price fluctuations. It is essential to examine trends in the time series of a financial asset when completing an analysis. To accurately examine its potential future performance, it must also consider how it has changed and been active during the period. The researchers created cryptocurrency trading algorithms in this study based on the traditional candlestick pattern.

Design/methodology/approach

The data includes information on Bitcoin prices from early 2012 until 2021. Only the engulfing Candlestick model was able to anticipate changes in the price movements of Bitcoin. The traditional Harami model does not work with Bitcoin trading platforms because it has yet to generate profitable business results. An inverted Harami is a successful cryptocurrency trading method.

Findings

The inverted Harami approach accounts for 6.98 profit factor (PrF) and 74–50% of profitable (Pr) transactions, which favors a particularly long position. Additionally, the study discovered that almost all analyzed candlestick patterns forecast longer trends greater than shorter trends.

Research limitations/implications

To statistically study its future potential return, examining how it has changed and been active over the years is necessary. Such valuations are the basis for trading strategies that could help traders and investors in the cryptocurrency market. Without sacrificing clarity or ease of application, the proposed approach has increased performance by up to 32.5% of mean absolute error (MAE).

Originality/value

This study is novel in that it used multilayer autoregressive neural network (MARN) models with crypto-net (CNM) in machine learning to analyze a time series of financial cryptocurrencies. Here, the primary study deals with time trends extracted through a neural network model. Then, the developed model was tested using Bitcoin and Ethereum. Finally, CNM validity was tested through linear regression.

Details

International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0265-671X

Keywords

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