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Structural models' inflation forecasts are often inferior to those of naïve devices. This chapter theoretically and empirically assesses this for UK annual and quarterly inflation, using the theoretical framework in Clements and Hendry (1998, 1999). Forecasts from equilibrium-correction mechanisms, built by automatic model selection, are compared to various robust devices. Forecast-error taxonomies for aggregated and time-disaggregated information reveal that the impacts of structural breaks are identical between these, helping to interpret the empirical findings. Forecast failures in structural models are driven by their deterministic terms, confirming location shifts as a pernicious cause thereof, and explaining the success of robust devices.

One of the noteworthy developments in the world economy is the cryptocurrency in general and the bitcoin in particular. Although several types of cryptocurrency are in operation in the current digital economy, the most prevalent is the bitcoin, which was launched formally in 2009 by an individual or group known under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. The value of bitcoin has increased to such an extend that it reached 19.7 billion US dollars by January 2, 2018 (Statista, 2018). As the bitcoin price touches a new high day by day, various terrorist organizations are using this cryptocurrency to anonymously finance their grotesque terrorist activities around the world by bypassing the surveillance mechanism of the banking system of the respective countries. Against this backdrop, this chapter aims to understand the mechanism of cryptocurrencies in general and the bitcoin in particular. Finally, it also endeavors to identify the trend of the bitcoin economy and its impact on nefarious activities in general and terrorism financing in particular. It has been revealed from the study that cryptocurrency economy has become so popular across the world that it has created an alternative virtual economy devoid of regulations from a specific country or a group of countries. By using vector error correction model (VECM), it had been observed that there exists a statistically significant long-run association between terrorist incidences and bitcoin transaction/circulation in the panel of 12 countries for 2010–2016. However, there is a huge concern over its way of operation and its unholy nexus with terrorism financing.

The authors model heterogeneity of inflation expectations across Indian households using the Inflation Expectations Survey of Households data set. Using Carroll-type epidemiological models and pooled cross sectional analyses, the authors find that women, homemakers, older people and Tier 2 and 3 city dwellers tend to have higher inflation expectations compared to their counterparts. In the epidemiological model-based analysis, these very cohorts display higher speed of adjustment to news. Overall higher relative adjustment speeds point to the significance of central bank communications.

This chapter examines a class of interest rate rules that respond to public expectations and to lagged variables. Varying levels of commitment correspond to varying degrees of response to lagged output and targeting of the price level. If the response rises (unintentionally) above the optimal level, the outcome deteriorates severely. Hence, the optimal level of commitment is sensitive to the method of expectations formation and partial commitment is the robust, optimal policy. The policymaker should adjust the price level toward a target, but complete adjustment is neither necessary nor desirable.

Little is known about perceptions of medical expenditure risks despite their presumed relevance to the demand for health insurance. This is the first study to examine households’ beliefs about their future spending on health care. The study made a unique elicitation of subjective probabilities of medical expenditures from rural Ethiopians participating in a panel survey and offered the opportunity to enrol in a health insurance programme. The vast majority of respondents give logically consistent responses to the subjective probability questions. The data indicate that the cross-sectional variance of realized expenditures, which is often used to proxy risk exposure, greatly overestimate the risk faced by any single household. Consistent with the serial correlation observed in realized expenditures, expectations are positively correlated with past expenses. They are revised upward in response to an increase in realized expenditure and, to some extent, they predict expenditure incurred in the year ahead. Despite containing information on future medical expenditures, there is no evidence that expectations influence the decision to take out health insurance, although plans to insure are positively related to the perceived volatility of expenses.

These results suggest that adverse selection may not threaten the viability of voluntary health insurance. A caveat is that measurement error in the reported probabilities may weaken the test for adverse selection. Notwithstanding this limitation, measurement of household-specific distributions of future medical expenses is feasible and avoids relying on the cross-sectional variance, which provides an upwardly biased estimate of medical expenditure risk.

We test the determinacy properties of the standard and financial-sector-augmented Taylor rules in a new Keynesian model with a presence of banking activities. We extend the basic fully rational environment to the setting with heterogeneous expectations. We observe that the benefits from extra financial targeting are limited. Financial targeting, if well designed, can compensate for the improper output-gap targeting through the financial-production channel. The analysis demonstrates however possible threats resulting from the misspecification of the augmented rule. A determinate mix of output-gap and inflation weights can turn indeterminate if compensated by too extreme financial targeting. The results are robust to the presence of heterogeneous expectations.