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Article
Publication date: 5 June 2017

Abolaji Daniel Anifowose, Izlin Ismail and Mohd Edil Abd Sukor

The purpose of this paper is to present the essential role that currency order flow plays in the foreign exchange markets of emerging economies in the determination of their…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to present the essential role that currency order flow plays in the foreign exchange markets of emerging economies in the determination of their currencies in the short and the long-run against major currencies of the world, which cannot be over emphasized, most especially against the US dollar. Insomuch that, if some of these emerging economies can be successfully transmitted into full development, it would be a good model for other emerging economies and the world at large.

Design/methodology/approach

A hybrid model (portfolio shift model) proposed by Evans and Lyons (2002a, 2002b) is extended to analyze a data set of every quarter of an hour currency order flow and currency exchange rate fluctuations of Thai Baht (THB) against the US$ for the period of six years (January 2010 to December 2015). To reflect the pressure of currency excess demand, the authors construct a measure of currency order flow in the Thailand currency exchange market. Vector autoregression model is applied to estimate the effectual role of currency order flow in the determination of exchange rate for the THB against the US$.

Findings

Currency order flow indeed accounted for a sizeable and significant portion of the fluctuations in the THB and the US$ exchange rate.

Originality/value

Insomuch that, the results show that currency order flow has significant explanatory power in the emerging markets economy to capture the THB exchange rate variability, and it then brings to the attention of the Thailand Monetary Authority the importance that should be attached to the market microstructure.

Details

Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, vol. 10 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1754-4408

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 7 May 2019

Higinio Mora, Francisco A. Pujol López, Julio César Mendoza Tello and Mario R. Morales

Virtual currency is a digital representation of value that is neither issued by a central bank or a public authority. Its reliability is based on advanced cryptographic methods…

Abstract

Virtual currency is a digital representation of value that is neither issued by a central bank or a public authority. Its reliability is based on advanced cryptographic methods which provide privacy and confidence to citizens. Virtual currency and its underlying technologies such as blockchain or smart contracts trigger transformation in many areas of the society’s functioning. The way in which social relations occur and economic transactions are managed are changing forever. As a result, cryptocurrencies constitute a good example of how specific technology may lead to substantial transformation of the world. Still, virtual currencies could benefit from the versatility of collaborative communication of social media and Internet to promote and develop new commerce and business initiatives as well as new forms of financial flow managements. The objective of this chapter is to examine the role played by virtual currencies in modern societies in order to describe potential uses and applications and their impact on politics and social behavior. As a result, recommendations are inferred to address the challenges and opportunities of these new technologies.

Details

Politics and Technology in the Post-Truth Era
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78756-984-3

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 April 2013

Manish Kumar

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the nature of returns and volatility spillovers between exchange rates and stock price in the IBSA nations (India, Brazil, South Africa).

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the nature of returns and volatility spillovers between exchange rates and stock price in the IBSA nations (India, Brazil, South Africa).

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses VAR framework and the recently proposed Spillover measure of Diebold and Yilmaz to examine the returns and volatility spillover between exchange rates and stock prices of IBSA nations. In addition, multivariate GARCH with time varying variance‐covariance BEKK model is used as a benchmark against the spillover methodology proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz.

Findings

The results of multivariate GARCH model suggests the integration between stock and foreign exchange markets and indicates the existence of bi‐directional volatility spillover between stock and foreign exchange markets in the IBSA countries. Spillover results using the Diebold Yilmaz model suggest the bi‐directional contribution between stock and foreign exchange market, in terms of both returns and volatility spillovers. Overall, results confirm the presence of returns and volatility spillovers within the IBSA nations and, in particular, the stock markets play a relatively more important role than foreign exchange markets in the first and second moment interactions and spillovers.

Practical implications

The market participants may consider the relationship between the exchange rate and stock index to predict the future movement of each other effectively. Multinational companies interested in exchange rate forecasting may consider the stock market as an important attribute. There is an interesting implication for portfolio managers too because of the spillover stock and foreign exchange markets. This knowledge would help to create a fund which performs well. Moreover, the paper can help regulators and policy makers in IBSA nations to understand the structure of the market in a better way and then design their policies.

Originality/value

The study contributes to the literature by extending the existing studies on the spillover between stock price and exchange rate by investigating the issue for three emerging economies, India, Brazil and South Africa. Unlike most studies in the literature which focus on multivariate GARCH model, this is the first study which explores the issue of returns and volatility spillover between the stock prices and the exchange rates using spillover measure of Diebold and Yilmaz and much longer and recent daily data. Moreover, multivariate GARCH with time varying variance‐covariance BEKK model is used as a benchmark against the spillover methodology proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 8 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 May 2018

Khalil Jebran

This paper aims to examine the volatility spillover dynamics between stock and foreign exchange market of China considering subprime 2007 financial crisis period.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the volatility spillover dynamics between stock and foreign exchange market of China considering subprime 2007 financial crisis period.

Design/methodology/approach

This study considered daily data from January 2, 2002, to December 31, 2013. The sample period has been further divided into three periods; full sample period (January 2002-December 2013), pre-crisis period (January 2002-October 2007) and post-crisis period (October 2007-December 2013). This study opted Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model for the purpose of investigating asymmetric volatility spillover.

Findings

The results obtained using the EGARCH model imply that volatility spillover dynamics varies from period to period. In full sample period, the results show evidence of significant unidirectional volatility spillover from foreign exchange market to stock market. In pre-crisis period, the results indicate unidirectional volatility spillover from stock market to foreign exchange market. However, in post-crisis period, the results reveal significant bidirectional volatility spillover between stock and foreign exchange market.

Practical implications

The results of the study are important for policy makers because understanding the behavior of the financial markets, i.e. stock and foreign exchange market, would increase the success of policies implemented in a crisis situation. The results would help investors to formulate efficient portfolios.

Originality/value

This study is an important contribution to the existing literature in terms of analyzing volatility spillover between stock and foreign exchange market in an emerging economy, China. Furthermore, this study explored the volatility spillover dynamics between the two markets by considering the pre and post subprime Asian crisis period.

Details

Journal of Asia Business Studies, vol. 12 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1558-7894

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 June 2021

Muhammad Aftab, Amir Rafique and Evan Lau

The sticky-price monetary model of exchange rate states the overshooting hypothesis as, exchange rate depreciation beyond its long-term value in response to an increase in money…

Abstract

Purpose

The sticky-price monetary model of exchange rate states the overshooting hypothesis as, exchange rate depreciation beyond its long-term value in response to an increase in money supply owing to the sticky nature of prices. Because of interest and relevance to policy, there is a huge extant literature on it but with mixed findings that suggest the need for further studies to refine the findings. Pakistan’s rupee exchange rate against the US dollar depreciated 128.44% over the period May 2007–December 2018. Considering this substantial decline in rupee's value, this study aims to examine either the rupee short-run value is over-shot of its long-term value.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a linear ARDL approach that segregates the short-run and long-run effects thus clarifying the premise of exchange rate overshooting. Furthermore, this study also uses nonlinear ARDL as a robustness check incorporating structural breaks.

Findings

Findings based on a linear model show evidence of exchange rate undershooting that means a positive money shock causes the exchange rate to appreciate. A nonlinear analysis also provides support to these findings. However, the increase in relative money supply has more such effect than that of a decrease in the relative money supply. Moreover, the authorities’ inclination to stabilize the exchange rate appreciates its short-run value.

Originality/value

This study substantiates the overshooting hypothesis literature by considering the role of asymmetric effects of exchange rate determinants and structural breaks that is a rare attempt in the extant literature.

Details

Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, vol. 15 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1754-4408

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 July 2021

Yacine Hammami and Sabrine Kharrat

The purpose of the paper is to show that order flows determine exchange rate dynamics because they carry information about nonfundamental factors besides macroeconomic…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the paper is to show that order flows determine exchange rate dynamics because they carry information about nonfundamental factors besides macroeconomic fundamentals.

Design/methodology/approach

To understand the role of nonfundamental factors in driving order flows, this study uses two approaches. Initially, Evans and Rime (2016) VAR framework is followed to study the incremental information transmitted by order flow compared to macroeconomic variables. Then, the study uses the settings in which Rime et al. (2010) conduct their empirical work, which gives the researcher more latitude in specifying the identity of the factors that drive order flows.

Findings

The findings evidence that order flows explain the dynamics of the TND/USD exchange rate. The results highlight that order flows convey information about technical strategies, the currency systematic factors and political risk. This study also documents the presence of a Ramadan effect in exchange rates and order flows.

Originality/value

This study makes four contributions to the literature. First, it complements the literature on the FX microstructure of emerging markets. The study investigates the information content carried by order flows, while the previous literature has focused solely on examining the explanatory power of order flows to explain exchange rates in emerging countries. The second contribution is that the study demonstrates formally that order flows determine exchange rates because they transmit information about nonfundamental factors. Third, this study is the first to examine whether order flows convey information about technical analysis. Four, the study relates order flow to nontraditional factors that are relevant to the Tunisian FX market.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 47 no. 12
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 April 2003

Georgios I. Zekos

Aim of the present monograph is the economic analysis of the role of MNEs regarding globalisation and digital economy and in parallel there is a reference and examination of some…

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Abstract

Aim of the present monograph is the economic analysis of the role of MNEs regarding globalisation and digital economy and in parallel there is a reference and examination of some legal aspects concerning MNEs, cyberspace and e‐commerce as the means of expression of the digital economy. The whole effort of the author is focused on the examination of various aspects of MNEs and their impact upon globalisation and vice versa and how and if we are moving towards a global digital economy.

Details

Managerial Law, vol. 45 no. 1/2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0309-0558

Keywords

Abstract

Details

The Exorbitant Burden
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78560-641-0

Book part
Publication date: 7 January 2016

Alex W. A. Palludeto and Saulo C. Abouchedid

This paper reassesses the center-periphery relationship in light of recent developments in the international monetary system and the currency hierarchy in a geopolitical economy…

Abstract

This paper reassesses the center-periphery relationship in light of recent developments in the international monetary system and the currency hierarchy in a geopolitical economy framework. The center-periphery relationship has historically been examined in relation to the international division of labor, the pace and diffusion of technical progress associated with it, and the pattern of consumption it embodies. As conceived by structuralists and dependentistas, it is not seen as the result of the uneven and combined development of capitalism: it does not take into account the struggle between the dominant States (center), which want to reproduce the current order and the contender States (periphery) which aim to accelerate capitalist development to reduce the unevenness, and even to undermine the imperial project of dominant states. In a geopolitical economy framework, a powerful obstacle peripheral countries face in their efforts at combined development is the international monetary system, something that the theorists of the center-periphery relationship have perhaps overlooked. Because of its subordinate position in the currency hierarchy, the periphery is subject to greater external vulnerability, greater instability of exchange and interest rates, and as a result, enjoys a more restricted policy space. In this sense, the chapter shows that, beyond macroeconomic policies, the currency hierarchy in a context of high capital mobility limits a range of developmental policies of peripheral countries, reinforcing the unevenness of world economy and constraining combined development.

Details

Analytical Gains of Geopolitical Economy
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78560-336-5

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 13 April 2015

Sylwia E. Starnawska

The UN Global Compact promotes values of precautionary approach to environmental changes and business sustainability, which are eagerly embraced by MNCs; however the recognized…

Abstract

Purpose

The UN Global Compact promotes values of precautionary approach to environmental changes and business sustainability, which are eagerly embraced by MNCs; however the recognized emerging country risks pose a challenge for continuous commitment to those principles in the subsidiaries. Especially political and currency risks are considered significant in the subsidiaries located in the emerging markets. Therefore, those risks are often shifted to the local partners as the pursued core principle of the risk management strategies. The objective of MNCs is in fact to limit MNCs responsibility for the liabilities and losses in the emerging markets in case of market downturns, and in effect the advocated risk management practices exacerbate the severity of the emerging market crises.

Methodology/approach

The chapter explores those corporate practices on the examples of numerous major international market players in case of several historical, but recent examples of the emerging market currency crises.

Findings

The concerns addressed in the chapter include: the preference for local financing exposing at risk local banking sectors in the emerging markets, excessive liquidity and minimal capital commitments and investments leading to weaker currency fluctuations and resulting in private capital speculations and capital flight (to safety or to quality). The intensified global competition for international investments in form of FDIs resulted in the erosion of the capital requirements, reduced social and business infrastructure commitments requested, limited currency controls, and other components of the regulatory framework easing in the emerging markets. Other identified in the research key components of the risk management strategies applied by MNCs, destabilizing the emerging markets in financial (both fiscal and currency) crises include: intercompany payments and financing such as: transfer pricing, local sourcing and reimbursements for both tangible and intangible assets transfer.

Implications

Demonstrated approach of MNCs appears ethically questionable and reflects the disparity of the bargaining powers. It also undermines the intentions of the Ten Principles of the UN Global Compact. The corporate citizenship is found difficult to dominate over the conflicting self-centered interests of MNCs operating in the emerging markets, especially in times of crises. The consideration of the non-compulsory ethically based initiative, as the alternative to the failing effectiveness of the international market regulations, requires restoration of the public and an individual value of the reputation (image, name) built on social responsibility and accountability, unfortunately so much diluted over the last two decades.

Originality/value

The chapter examines the effect of MNCs risk management of their foreign operations on the crises in the emerging markets with focus on inward FDIs flows and inward FDIs stock fluctuations and debt financing. The results evidence the repetitive nature of the self-interest driven corporate behavior.

Details

Beyond the UN Global Compact: Institutions and Regulations
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78560-558-1

Keywords

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