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The innovations in fundamentals coupled with noise traders induce co-movement in diverse markets. This co-movement in equity markets which is evidenced higher during the turmoil period influences economic fundamentals of a country dissimilar in nature. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether economic fundamentals or investors’ behavior attributable to disturbances across the world are the rationale behind the crisis transmission, and thereby distinguish fundamental-based contagion from investor-induced contagion.

Initially, the study investigates the role of macroeconomic fundamentals and stock returns on crisis occurrence using panel probit estimates. Additionally, ordinary least squares estimates controlling the influence of fundamentals on domestic return capture the discrete country effect measuring the influence of domestic as well as foreign economic fundamentals along with foreign returns on the domestic stock index.

The empirical results reveal that foreign country stock index returns are having a significant influence on domestic returns besides a prominent role in crisis occurrence. The binary probit model confirmed the influence of both macroeconomic factors and foreign returns in crisis occurrence. The OLS estimates found evidence for investor-induced contagion in the crisis period where the effects of economic fundamentals are small in comparison to foreign market returns that are mainly dominant in pre- and post-crisis period.

The propagation of crisis from one market to other would enable the policy makers to make clear regulations at right time to control for the crisis in future. The results can help the policy makers as well as investors in reducing the impact of the crisis in future by clearly monitoring the behavior of the factors under study.

The current study addresses the role of macro fundamentals and investors influence in crisis propagation. Adopting subprime crisis of 2008-2009 as a reference point and separating the sample period into pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis period, the study explains how badly the other 30 markets impacted the crisis that emerged in the USA.

The purpose of this paper is based on China’s economic fundamentals. Factor input, structural optimization and institutional reform, which determine the fundamentals of China's economic development, will actively prop up long-term, sustained and stable growth of the Chinese economy and keep China's potential economic growth rate stabilized within a reasonable growth range in the long term.

The fundamentals of economic development of a country are the basic situation of economic operation determined by the country's main factors and the long-term trend thereof, and they have such characteristics as stability, internality and persistence.

Stability refers to economic operation that remains relatively stable within a reasonable growth range at a certain stage of development, and this does not rule out exceptional economic fluctuations in certain years due to the impact of unexpected short-term factors. For instance, the fundamentals of the Chinese economy during the period after the reform and opening-up are characterized by a sustained high growth rate.

Internality refers to the intrinsic quantity and quality of all factors supporting the economic development of a country, especially the quantity and quality of the factors that play a decisive role in the economic development of a country at a specific stage. For instance, demographic dividend and capital formation have bolstered the high-speed growth of the Chinese economy since the reform and opening-up.

The purpose of this paper is to provide an extensive review of the monetary model of exchange rate determination which is the main theoretical framework on analyzing exchange rate behavior over the last 40 years. Furthermore, we test the flexible price monetarist variant and the sticky price Keynesian variant of the monetary model. We conduct our analysis employing a sample of 14 advanced economies using annual data spanning the period 1880–2012.

The theoretical background of the paper relies on the monetary model to the exchange rate determination. We provide a thorough econometric analysis using a battery of unit root and cointegration testing techniques. We test the price-flexible monetarist version and the sticky-price version of the model using annual data from 1880 to 2012 for a group of industrialized countries.

We provide strong evidence of the existence of a nonlinear relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals. Therefore, we model the time-varying nature of this relationship by allowing for Markov regime switches for the exchange rate regimes. Modeling exchange rates within this context can be motivated by the fact that the change in regime should be considered as a random event and not predictable. These results show that linearity is rejected in favor of an MS-VECM specification which forms statistically an adequate representation of the data. Two regimes are implied by the model; the one of the estimated regimes describes the monetary model whereas the other matches in most cases the constant coefficient model with wrong signs. Furthermore it is shown that depending on the nominal exchange rate regime in operation, the adjustment to the long run implied by the monetary model of the exchange rate determination came either from the exchange rate or from the monetary fundamentals. Moreover, based on a Regime Classification Measure, we showed that our chosen Markov-switching specification performed well in distinguishing between the two regimes for all cases. Finally, it is shown that fundamentals are not only significant within each regime but are also significant for the switches between the two regimes.

The results are of interest to practitioners and policy makers since understanding the evolution and determination of exchange rates is of crucial importance. Furthermore, our results are linked to forecasting performance of exchange rate models.

The present analysis extends previous analyses on exchange rate determination and it provides further support in favor of the monetary model as a long-run framework to understand the evolution of exchange rates.

Housing prices in Sydney have increased rapidly in the past three decades. This leads to a debate of whether Sydney housing prices have departed from macroeconomic fundamentals. However, little research has been devoted to this area. Therefore, this study aims to fill this gap by examining the long-run association between housing prices and market fundamentals. Further, it also examines the long-run determinants of housing prices in Greater Sydney.

The analysis of this study involves two stages. The first stage is to estimate the presence of long-run relationship between housing prices and market fundamentals with the Johansen and Juselius Cointegration test. Thereafter, the determinants of housing prices in Greater Sydney is assessed by using a vector error correction model.

The empirical results show that Sydney housing prices are cointegrated with market fundamentals in the long run. In addition, there is evidence to suggest that market fundamentals such as gross disposable income, housing supply, unemployment rate and gross domestic product are the key long-run determinants of Sydney housing prices, reflecting that Sydney housing prices, in general, can be explained by market fundamentals in the long run.

The findings enable more informed and practical policy and investment decision-making regarding the relation between housing prices and market fundamentals.

This paper is the first study to offer empirical evidence of the degree to which the behaviour of housing prices can be explained by market fundamentals, from a capital city instead of at a national level, using a relatively disaggregated dataset of housing price series for Greater Sydney.

The equity premium of the S&P 500 index is explained in this paper by several variables that can be grouped into fundamental, behavioral, and macroeconomic factors. We hypothesize that the statistical significance of these variables changes across economic regimes. The three regimes we consider are the low‐volatility, medium‐volatility, and high‐volatility regimes in contrast to previous studies that do not differentiate across economic regimes. By using the three‐state Markov switching regime econometric methodology, we confirm that the statistical significance of the independent variables representing fundamentals, macroeconomic conditions, and a behavioral variable changes across economic regimes. Our findings offer an improved understanding of what moves the equity premium across economic regimes than what we can learn from single‐equation estimation. Our results also confirm the significance of momentum as a behavioral variable across all economic regimes

This paper aims to examine the relationship between key economic fundamentals and average house price (AHP) movements before and during the financial crisis of 2007 to 2009 in the UK and the USA.

Multiple regression analysis is applied in assessing the correlation between AHPs and a set of selected economic fundamentals.

The study results show that earnings and to less extent interest rate have the highest correlation with the AHP and among the different types of interest rate used variable interest rate has the strongest correlation with AHP. The results also reveal that most indicators behave in the same way both before and during the financial crisis, but with better explanatory power for the pre-crisis period. Another key finding is that the directions of relationship for some of the parameters have changed when the market is in crisis, especially in the case of loans extended to house purchase for the UK market and number of households for the US market.

The originality of the paper stems in using a wide range and thoroughly selected economic fundamentals to explain the movement in house prices and to observe the effect of financial crisis on the correlation between each economic factor and house price movements. The study is also unique in comparing the UK and the US housing markets for the time frame under consideration and for the economic parameters used.

X = multiple interpretations

House price-to-rent (P-t-R) ratios are among the most widely used measures of housing market conditions. Given the theoretical and apparent bidirectional, causal relationships and imbalances between the housing market, broader economy and financial market determinants, it is important to understand the relationship between macro- and micro-economic characteristics in relation to the P-t-R ratio to enhance the understanding of housing market dynamics. This paper studies the joint dynamics and persistence of house prices and rents and examines the temporal interactions of the P-t-R ratio and economic and financial determinants.

The authors examine the lead–lag relationships between the P-t-R ratios and a spectrum of macroeconomic variables using cointegration and causality methods, initially at the aggregate position and also across housing types within the Northern Ireland housing market to establish whether there are subtle differences in how various housing segments react to changes in economic activity and market fundamentals.

The findings reveal price switching dynamics and some very distinct long- and short-run relationships between macroeconomic and financial indicators and the P-t-R ratios across the various housing segments. The results exhibit monetary supply, foreign exchange markets and the stock market to be important drivers of the P-t-R ratio, with P-t-R movements seemingly tied, or are in tandem, with the overall economy, particularly with the construction sector.

The study shows that the P-t-R ratio can be used as an early measure for establishing the effects of macroprudential policy changes and how these may manifest across housing tiers and quality, which can further act as a signal for preventing or at least mitigating future irrational price cyclicity. These insights serve to inform housing and economic policy and macroprudential policy design, principally within lending policy and the effect of regulatory interventions and further enhance the understanding of the P-t-R ratio on housing market structure and dynamics.

This study is the first in the housing literature that examines the causal relationships between the P-t-R ratio and macroeconomic activity at the sub-market level. It investigates whether and how money supply, inflation, foreign exchange markets, general economic productivity and other important macroeconomic factors interact with the pricing of different property types over time.

The purpose of the paper is to show that order flows determine exchange rate dynamics because they carry information about nonfundamental factors besides macroeconomic fundamentals.

To understand the role of nonfundamental factors in driving order flows, this study uses two approaches. Initially, Evans and Rime (2016) VAR framework is followed to study the incremental information transmitted by order flow compared to macroeconomic variables. Then, the study uses the settings in which Rime et al. (2010) conduct their empirical work, which gives the researcher more latitude in specifying the identity of the factors that drive order flows.

The findings evidence that order flows explain the dynamics of the TND/USD exchange rate. The results highlight that order flows convey information about technical strategies, the currency systematic factors and political risk. This study also documents the presence of a Ramadan effect in exchange rates and order flows.

This study makes four contributions to the literature. First, it complements the literature on the FX microstructure of emerging markets. The study investigates the information content carried by order flows, while the previous literature has focused solely on examining the explanatory power of order flows to explain exchange rates in emerging countries. The second contribution is that the study demonstrates formally that order flows determine exchange rates because they transmit information about nonfundamental factors. Third, this study is the first to examine whether order flows convey information about technical analysis. Four, the study relates order flow to nontraditional factors that are relevant to the Tunisian FX market.