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This paper aims to assess to what extent the COVID-19 shock is expected to create a debt crisis in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) through two main questions: what are the main determinants of EMDEs external vulnerability? How vulnerable are EMDEs to the current COVID-19 shock compared to the global financial crisis (GFC)?

In addition to a descriptive analysis of the determinants of EMDEs external vulnerability, this paper designs two sub-indices of overindebtedness and financial fragility that capture EMDEs’ distinct characteristics. The two sub-indices together illustrate the overall external vulnerability to the current shock.

EMDEs are more vulnerable compared to the GFC era. Current debt threats arise mainly from debt architecture and the domination of volatile debt forms – primarily foreign currency-denominated bonds. Excessive fear of debt-deflation spirals after the GFC prompted EMDEs to expand their growth trajectories through a pattern of cheap private lending, loose measures and unmonitored fiscal expansion.

Conclusive post-crisis data are still unavailable.

EMDEs need to balance between temporary accommodative measures and a post-shock policy mix that prevent a deflation spiral without worsening indebtedness and financial fragility. Moreover, financial prudence in face of growing credit demand is crucial, particularly in light of the monetary expansion and injected liquidity.

The indices offer a framework for examining external vulnerability in EMDEs based on theoretical and historical revisions, IMF benchmarks and EMDEs specific debt characteristics. The indices components can be offered for empirical examination in separate future research once conclusive data become available.

The impact of financial reforms and financial development on an economy has received considerable attention over the recent past. This paper aims to investigate whether financial liberalisation and financial development increase the likelihood financial crises in Southern African development community (SADC) countries.

Due to the binary nature of the dependent variable, the logit model is used for the analysis using data for the period 1990 to 2015.

The results showed that financial liberalisation captured by real interest rates reduces the likelihood of financial crises. Furthermore, regulatory quality strengthens this reductive effect of financial liberalisation on the probability of financial crises. On the other hand, financial development represented by bank credit increases the incidence of financial crises. The results also suggest that financial liberalisation may increase the likelihood of financial crises indirectly through financial development.

The study recommends that a sound regulatory and supervisory framework be established as well as institutional quality raised to curb the effect of financial development on the incidence of financial crises.

There is scant evidence on the role that financial liberalisation and financial development play in the incidence of financial crises in the SADC. This study incorporates the effect of institutional quality in the analysis which has been neglected by most studies on financial reforms in SADC countries. A number of recent studies in SADC countries conclude that financial development resulting from financial reforms, may hinder economic growth. Therefore, this study sheds light on this negative relationship.

This paper aims to empirically investigate the sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in Egypt using structural vector autoregression (SVAR). The data covers the period between 1980 and 2016, where exchange regime has been changed more than once.

This paper investigates the source of real exchange rate fluctuations for the period between 1980 and 2016 using the SVAR method. The SVAR method will incorporate real gross domestic product (GDP), real effective exchange rate (REER) and price level in a multidimensional equations system. However, impulse response function (IRF) and error variance decompositions (EVDC) will be generated by the system to have a behavioral insight of real exchange rate in response to economic shocks.

The IRF and EVDC results indicate a significant impact of demand shocks over the real exchange rate relative to supply shocks and monetary shocks in the period between 1980 and 2016. On the other hand, monetary shocks will have a negligible effect on the real exchange rate in the short run and converging to its previous level in the covering period of the study.

In the best of the authors' knowledge, the topic of the source of the real exchange rate fluctuations in Egypt has not been discussed in a wide range due to the lack of time series data. However, this study provides constructed data for REER for Egypt with the published method in the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Furthermore, the study involves theoretical and econometric modeling to ensure the reliability of the economic results.

This study aims to identify structural breaks in the current account and the periods between these breaks, which the authors name stability spells, and study their characteristics and determinants.

Using data from the IMF and the World Bank, this study applies the Lee and Strazicich test to endogenously identify breaks and the Heckman selection model to simultaneously study the determinants of structural breaks and current-account changes after breaks.

This study identifies 212 significant structural breaks and 341 stability spells. These spells become shorter and more volatile the further they are from equilibrium, and half of them last 10 years or less. The results show that economic growth and foreign-exchange piling are particularly useful to prevent breaks, while lower per capita income increases exposure to break risks.

This study introduces the concept of current-account stability spells to refer to the periods between structural breaks. These spells are then studied to determine their main characteristics. The authors also apply a global perspective in their analysis, using a wide sample of 181 economies between 1980 and 2018 and considering positive and negative breaks in both level and trend.

While undergoing currency crises, countries under fixed exchange rate regime elect to adopt flexible exchange rate regime. It is generally expected that if a country launches floating exchange rate regime, the exchange rate volatility increases. Therefore, the increase in exchange rate volatility may increase exposures to currency risks at the firm level. Previous research, however, such as Bian, Park and Cho (2006) shows that right after the currency crisis of 1997~1998, currency risk exposure for Korean firms actually decreased after the government adopted flexible exchange rate regime. In this study, we intend to study the effects of changes in exchange rate regimes on foreign currency exposures at the firm level around the currency crises in the 1990s using worldwide data. We use 2116 firms in 23 countries finds evidence that exchange rate exposure of majority of firms decreases after the financial crises. In a sub-sample analysis in which sub-samples are created depending on whether the home country changed exchange rate regime from fixed to flexible, we find that the reduction of exposure was greater for firms in countries that changed the regimes than those in countries that did not.

The most prominent and persistent problems of our global monetary system are instability and imbalances. We propose an international monetary model to solve these problems while at the same time move the model closer to Maqāṣid Sharīʿah (objectives of Sharīʿah). We name this an organic global monetary model or abbreviated as OGM. OGM is an international monetary model directly built on the national monetary system of each member country so that the two can co-exist.

Model design, theory and literature.

The model can eliminate interest rates at the central bank level, create non-tradable international money, and make a more stable international monetary system.

Original.