Search results
1 – 10 of over 2000Ioannis A Venetis and Paraskevi K Salamaliki
The purpose of this paper is to examine the time series behavior of Greek labor market series by providing an empirical perspective on trend breaks and unit roots. Trend breaks…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the time series behavior of Greek labor market series by providing an empirical perspective on trend breaks and unit roots. Trend breaks represent aggregate behavior responses to “infrequent” changes in economic fundamentals, including changes in fiscal or labor market conditions, as have been perceived in Greece during the last years. Unit roots reveal whether “regular” shocks have significant effects on the level of the series over a specified finite horizon.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors employ recent procedures that deal with the “circular testing problem” between tests on the parameters of the trend function and unit root tests that often arises in empirical applications. These techniques assess trend function stability and are robust regardless of whether the noise component is stationary or having a unit root. Then, conditional on the presence of breaks, the authors test whether the series can be characterized by a stochastic trend.
Findings
The analysis provides evidence of “infrequent” trend breaks that appear to coincide with the recent global economic crisis and the implementation of the counteraction (fiscal) measures to the Greek debt crisis. Allowing for trend breaks does not lead to a rejection of the unit root hypothesis, which might reflect the low flexibility of the country’s labor market operation.
Practical implications
The procedures employed can be viewed as new tools that might help empirical researchers to explore more accurately the characteristics of individual time series and to find reasonable approximations to the true processes of the time series examined.
Originality/value
The paper provides new information on the presence of structural changes in the Greek labor market, and on whether the “aggressive” and “occasional” nature of fiscal measures can be approximated by infrequent changes in the slope of the trend function.
Details
Keywords
Saban Nazlioglu, Mehmet Altuntas, Emre Kilic and Ilhan Kucukkkaplan
This paper aims to test purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, which are known as the GIIPS countries.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to test purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, which are known as the GIIPS countries.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors conduct a comprehensive analysis by using unit root approaches without and with structural breaks and non-linearity.
Findings
The PPP is valid for the GIIPS countries. Considering structural breaks in non-linear framework plays a crucial role.
Originality/value
There is no empirical study testing PPP hypothesis by focusing on the GIIPS countries. This study further takes into account for structural breaks and non-linearity in the real exchange rates of these countries.
Details
Keywords
In what seems as an infinitely ongoing debate regarding the purchasing power parity (PPP) theory, this paper seeks to question the strength of the scientific “evidence” put…
Abstract
Purpose
In what seems as an infinitely ongoing debate regarding the purchasing power parity (PPP) theory, this paper seeks to question the strength of the scientific “evidence” put forward by the PPP revisionists
Design/methodology/approach
In this paper, the validity of the PPP revisionists' scientific evidence supporting long‐run PPP is questioned based on the replication of an influential review study that is considered by PPP revisionists to exhibit “some of the strongest evidence” in favour of the PPP theory.
Findings
By simulation experiments it is demonstrated that the traditional PPP unit root tests are non‐robust to the empirically identified (G)ARCH distortions. Due to (G)ARCH distortions, over‐rejections for the traditional unit root tests are shown to be a problem that potentially misleads researchers to believe that long‐run PPP holds under circumstances when it is in fact not valid. As a potential remedy to this problem, a new unit root test is introduced which is robust to conditional heteroscedasticity disturbances, and in contrast to traditional unit root tests, it exhibits no significant empirical support for the PPP theory.
Originality/value
The study illustrates that the PPP revisionists' unit root tests cannot reliably test the PPP hypothesis in the presence of (G)ARCH distortions, due to bad power and size properties. Perhaps it is time to conclude that, based on the currently existing research, it is virtually impossible to empirically come to a credible conclusion regarding whether long‐run PPP holds or not.
Details
Keywords
Seema Narayan and Russell Smyth
The purpose of this paper is to examine the time series properties of 26 macroeconomic variables in Papua New Guinea (PNG) over the period 1970‐2006.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the time series properties of 26 macroeconomic variables in Papua New Guinea (PNG) over the period 1970‐2006.
Design/methodology/approach
Both unit root and stationarity tests without a structural break and the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root test with one and two structural breaks developed by Lee and Strazicich are applied to each of the 26 macroeconomic variables in PNG. Compared to popular ADF‐type endogenous unit root tests such as those proposed by Zivot and Andrews and Lumsdaine and Papell, the LM unit root test with one and two structural breaks has the advantage that it is unaffected by breaks under the null.
Findings
The unit root and stationarity tests without structural breaks find at best mixed evidence of mean reversion and/or trend reversion for most variables. This result is likely to reflect the failure of these tests to allow for structural breaks, given the power to find stationarity declines if the data contain a structural break that is ignored. When the LM unit root test with one and two structural breaks is applied, it is found that at least 23 of the 26 macroeconomic variables are trend stationary.
Originality/value
The time series properties of macroeconomic variables have important implications for several macroeconomic theories. There are, however, few studies of the time series properties of macroeconomic variables in developing countries and no comprehensive studies for any of the Pacific Island countries. This paper begins to fill this gap as the first to provide a systematic examination of the time series properties of macroeconomic variables in Paua New Guinea.
Details
Keywords
Gizem Uzuner, Bünyamin Fuat Yıldız, Murat Anıl Mercan and Wing-Keung Wong
The specific objective of the study is to investigate the presence of natural rate of crime rates in selected emerging economies by using panel unit roots. The majority of the…
Abstract
Purpose
The specific objective of the study is to investigate the presence of natural rate of crime rates in selected emerging economies by using panel unit roots. The majority of the literature examines the issue using conventional unit root tests in a country-specific context. Meanwhile, there is no panel unit root investigation has been undertaken considering both cross-sectional dependence (CD) and structural changes.
Design/methodology/approach
As a result, this study is to fill the aforementioned gap and validate the natural rate of crime rates for 10 countries by using a Fourier panel unit root test. The advantage of the test is that structural shifts are modelled as gradual or smooth changes with a Fourier approximation, and it also accounts cross-sectional dependency. Thus, the Fourier panel unit root test may have better performance in capturing potential changes in the nature of data.
Findings
The result of the conventional unit roots test shows evidence of the hysteresis effect in crime, as it stands does not adequately account for smooth transitions or breaks. On contrary, the Fourier panel unit root test confirms the natural rate hypothesis in crime rates. The present results highlight the detrimental effects of crime cannot be abated by short-run deterrence policies.
Originality/value
Contrary to previous studies, the theoretical implications of the study imply that the empirical models consider the dynamic nature of crime rates should account for natural rate properties instead of the hysteresis assumption.
Details
Keywords
Vasudeva Murthy and Albert Okunade
This study aims to investigate, for the first time in the literature, the stochastic properties of the US aggregate health-care price inflation rate series, using the data on…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to investigate, for the first time in the literature, the stochastic properties of the US aggregate health-care price inflation rate series, using the data on health-care inflation rates for a panel of 17 major US urban areas for the period 1966-2006.
Design/methodology/approach
This goal is undertaken by applying the first- and second-generation panel unit root tests and the panel stationary test developed recently by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2005) that allows for endogenously determined multiple structural breaks and is flexible enough to control for the presence of cross-sectional dependence.
Findings
The empirical findings indicate that after controlling for the presence of cross-sectional dependence, finite sample bias, and asymptotic normality, the US aggregate health-care price inflation rate series can be characterized as a non-stationary process and not as a regime-wise stationary innovation process.
Research limitations/implications
The research findings apply to understanding of health-care sector price escalation in US urban areas. These findings have timely implications for the understanding of the data structure and, therefore, constructs of economic models of urban health-care price inflation rates. The results confirming the presence of a unit root indicating a high degree of inflationary persistence in the health sector suggests need for further studies on health-care inflation rate persistence using the alternative measures of persistence. This study’s conclusions do not apply to non-urban areas.
Practical implications
The mean and variance of US urban health-care inflation rate are not constant. Therefore, insurers and policy rate setters need good understanding of the interplay of the various factors driving the explosive health-care insurance rates over the large US metropolitan landscape. The study findings have implications for health-care insurance premium rate setting, health-care inflation econometric modeling and forecasting.
Social implications
Payers (private and public employers) of health-care insurance rates in US urban areas should evaluate the value of benefits received in relation to the skyrocketing rise of health-care insurance premiums.
Originality/value
This is the first empirical research focusing on the shape of urban health-care inflation rates in the USA.
Details
Keywords
Ebru Çağlayan Akay, Zamira Oskonbaeva and Hoşeng Bülbül
This study aims to examine the hysteresis hypothesis in unemployment using monthly data from 13 countries in transition.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine the hysteresis hypothesis in unemployment using monthly data from 13 countries in transition.
Design/methodology/approach
Stationarity in the unemployment rate of selected transition economies was analyzed using four different group unit root tests, namely, linear, structural breaks, non-linear and structural breaks and non-linear.
Findings
The empirical results show that the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis is valid for the majority of transition economies, including Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, the Kyrgyz Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovenia. However, the results strongly reject the null hypothesis of unemployment hysteresis for the Kazakhstan and the Slovak Republics.
Originality/value
This study revealed that, for countries in transition, advanced unit root tests exhibit greater validity when compared to standard tests
Details
Keywords
Simeon Kaitibie, Arnold Missiame, Patrick Irungu and John N. Ng'ombe
Qatar, a wealthy country with an open economy has limited arable land. To meet its domestic food demand, the country heavily relies on food imports. Additionally, the over three…
Abstract
Purpose
Qatar, a wealthy country with an open economy has limited arable land. To meet its domestic food demand, the country heavily relies on food imports. Additionally, the over three year-long economic embargo enforced by regional neighbors and the covariate shock of the COVID-19 pandemic have demonstrated the country's vulnerability to food insecurity and potential for structural breaks in macroeconomic data. The purpose of this paper is to examine short- and long-run determinants of Qatar's imports of aggregate food, meats, dairy and cereals in the presence of structural breaks.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use 24 years of food imports, gross domestic product (GDP) and consumer price index (CPI) data obtained from Qatar's Planning and Statistics Authority. They use the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration framework and Chambers and Pope's exact nonlinear aggregation approach.
Findings
Unit root tests in the presence of structural breaks reveal a mixture of I (1) and I (0) variables for which standard cointegration techniques do not apply. The authors found evidence of a significant long-run relationship between structural changes and food imports in Qatar. Impulse response functions indicate full adjustments within three-quarters of a year in the event of an exogenous shock to imports.
Research limitations/implications
An exogenous shock of one standard deviation on this variable would reduce Qatar's food imports by about 2.5% during the first period but recover after the third period.
Originality/value
The failure of past aggregate food demand studies to go beyond standard unit root testing creates considerable doubt about the accuracy of their elasticity estimates. The authors avoid that to provide more credible findings.
Details
Keywords
Panayiotis F. Diamandis, Anastassios A. Drakos and Georgios P. Kouretas
The purpose of this paper is to provide an extensive review of the monetary model of exchange rate determination which is the main theoretical framework on analyzing exchange rate…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to provide an extensive review of the monetary model of exchange rate determination which is the main theoretical framework on analyzing exchange rate behavior over the last 40 years. Furthermore, we test the flexible price monetarist variant and the sticky price Keynesian variant of the monetary model. We conduct our analysis employing a sample of 14 advanced economies using annual data spanning the period 1880–2012.
Design/methodology/approach
The theoretical background of the paper relies on the monetary model to the exchange rate determination. We provide a thorough econometric analysis using a battery of unit root and cointegration testing techniques. We test the price-flexible monetarist version and the sticky-price version of the model using annual data from 1880 to 2012 for a group of industrialized countries.
Findings
We provide strong evidence of the existence of a nonlinear relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals. Therefore, we model the time-varying nature of this relationship by allowing for Markov regime switches for the exchange rate regimes. Modeling exchange rates within this context can be motivated by the fact that the change in regime should be considered as a random event and not predictable. These results show that linearity is rejected in favor of an MS-VECM specification which forms statistically an adequate representation of the data. Two regimes are implied by the model; the one of the estimated regimes describes the monetary model whereas the other matches in most cases the constant coefficient model with wrong signs. Furthermore it is shown that depending on the nominal exchange rate regime in operation, the adjustment to the long run implied by the monetary model of the exchange rate determination came either from the exchange rate or from the monetary fundamentals. Moreover, based on a Regime Classification Measure, we showed that our chosen Markov-switching specification performed well in distinguishing between the two regimes for all cases. Finally, it is shown that fundamentals are not only significant within each regime but are also significant for the switches between the two regimes.
Practical implications
The results are of interest to practitioners and policy makers since understanding the evolution and determination of exchange rates is of crucial importance. Furthermore, our results are linked to forecasting performance of exchange rate models.
Originality/value
The present analysis extends previous analyses on exchange rate determination and it provides further support in favor of the monetary model as a long-run framework to understand the evolution of exchange rates.
Details
Keywords
Muhamed Zulkhibri, Ismaeel Naiya and Reza Ghazal
This paper aims to investigate the relationship between structural change and economic growth for a panel of four developing countries, namely, Malaysia, Nigeria, Turkey and…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate the relationship between structural change and economic growth for a panel of four developing countries, namely, Malaysia, Nigeria, Turkey and Indonesia over 1960-2010.
Design/methodology/approach
The study extent the growth equation by incorporating degree of openness, labour and investment and construct structural change indices – modified Lilien index and the norm of absolute values. It utilizes the recently developed panel cointegration techniques to test and estimate the long-run equilibrium of the growth equation.
Findings
The results confirm that structural change and economic growth are cointegrated at the panel level, indicating the presence of long-run equilibrium relationship. However, the impact of structural change on economic growth seems to be small and evolve slowly.
Originality/value
The findings indicate the need for policymakers to identify the binding constraints that impede growth and the importance of institutionalize policy to encourage investment in productive sectors.
Details