Search results

The purpose of the study is to analyze the risk of violent conflict with the global conflict risk factors in the Middle East economies by using an integrated fuzzy decision approach. For this purpose, five different dimensions and 24 different criteria are defined by analyzing similar studies in the literature. The dataset is borrowed from the European Commission, and experts appointed for the linguistic evaluation of each dimension and criterion. Additionally, fuzzy Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) methodology is used to weigh dimensions and criteria and Multi-objective Optimization on the basis of Ratio Analysis (MOORA) approach is considered to rank the countries with respect to the conflict risk. Social dimension was concluded to have the highest importance of the Global Conflict Risk Index. Moreover, Syria, Libya, and Saudi Arabia were identified as the countries that have high conflict risk. Because these countries have high risk of facing conflict in the future, it is strongly recommended that they should primarily focus on social factors in order to minimize this risk.

Research and development (R&D) projects are often pursued through a project portfolio (PP). R&D PPs involve many stakeholders, and without proactive management, their interactions may lead to conflict risks. These conflict risks change dynamically with different stages of the PP life cycle, increasing the challenge of PP risk management. Existing conflict risk research mainly focuses on source identification but lacks risk assessment work. To better manage the stakeholder conflict risks (SCRs) of R&D PPs, this study employs the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) to construct its dynamic assessment model.

This study constructs a DBN model to assess the SCRs in R&D PP. First, an indicator system of SCRs is constructed from the life cycle perspective. Then, the risk relationships within each R&D PPs life cycle stage are identified via interpretative structural modeling (ISM). The prior and conditional probabilities of risks are obtained by expert judgment and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). Finally, crucial SCRs at each stage are identified utilizing propagation analysis, and the corresponding risk responses are proposed.

The results of the study identify the crucial risks at each stage. Also, for the crucial risks, this study suggests appropriate risk response strategies to help managers better perform risk response activities.

This study dynamically assesses the stakeholder conflict risks in R&D PPs from a life-cycle perspective, extending the stakeholder risk management research. Meanwhile, the crucial risks are identified at each stage accordingly, providing managerial insights for R&D PPs.

Inadequate balancing of resources often results in resource conflict in the multiproject management process. Past research has focused on how to allocate a small amount of resources optimally but has scarcely explored how to foresee multiproject resource conflict risk in advance. The purpose of this study is to address this knowledge gap by developing a model to predict multiproject resource conflict risk.

A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to transform subjective judgments into quantitative information, based on which an evaluation index system for multiproject resource conflict risk that focuses on the interdependence of multiple project resources is proposed. An artificial neural network (ANN) model combined with this system is proposed to predict the comprehensive risk score that can describe the severity of risk.

Accurately predicting multiproject resource conflict risks in advance can reduce the risk to the organization and increase the probability of achieving the project objectives. The ANN model developed in this paper by the authors can capture the essential components of the underlying nonlinear relevance and is capable of predicting risk appropriately.

The authors explored the prediction of the risks associated with multiproject resource conflicts, which is important for improving the success rate of projects but has received limited attention in the past. The authors established an evaluation index system for these risks considering the interdependence among project resources to describe the underlying factors that contribute to resource conflict risks. The authors proposed an effective model to forecast the risk of multiproject resource conflicts using an ANN. The model can effectively predict complex phenomena with complicated and highly nonlinear performance functions and solve problems with many random variables.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the social, economic and demographic determinants of rural households' risk perception of farmer–herder (FH) conflicts in Nigeria. The paper also investigates two aspects of FH conflict risk perception relating to food production and physical insecurity.

A FH conflict risk perception model is constructed and tested using exploratory factor analysis (EFA), ordinary least squares (OLS) and seemingly unrelated regression equation (SURE) models. The study uses cross-sectional data from 401 rural households in Nigeria.

Results show that in addition to economic determinants like farm size, land ownership and crop diversity, socio-demographic variables like age and number of languages spoken are significant predictors of household risk perception of FH conflict. Second, although gender and frequency of FH conflict have no significant effect on the risk perception of FH conflict, there is a significant moderating effect of frequency of FH conflicts on the influence of gender on the risk perception of FH conflict. Third, findings also highlight the important predictors of the risk perception of FH conflicts relating to food production and physical insecurity.

Findings give insight into policies targeted at influencing the risk behaviour of rural households. This is important to aid the development of efficient risk management initiatives.

Prior research suggests that there is enough residual uncertainty in conflict situations so that a person's attitude towards risk may influence his or her conflict behavior. This paper explores the level of dyadic conflict arising from negotiation between partners having different combinations of risk propensities. Dyadic conflict was measured as the sum of each dyadic partner's conflict score using the Rahim Organizational Conflict Inventory‐I. Risk propensities of negotiators were induced The results from the experiment provide clear evidence in support of the research hypothesis that in a dyad, the greater the disparity between the negotiating partners in their risk‐taking propensities, the greater will be the levels of dyadic conflict. The result suggests that conflict models of negotiating under uncertainty need to include risk propensities of the players to expand their descriptive power.

There is an extensive research stream devoted to evaluating host country political risk as it relates to foreign investment decisions, and in today’s geopolitical climate, this type of risk is becoming increasingly salient to business leaders. Despite notable advancements related to understanding the importance of government-related risk, inconsistent conceptualizations and findings remain. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to offer a comprehensive overview of how host country political risk has been conceptualized, measured and studied in relation to multinational enterprises' (MNEs’) investment decisions. After reviewing the relevant literature, five major aspects of non-violent (government type, public corruption, leadership change) and violent (armed conflict, terrorism) political risk were identified. The organization and review of each aspect of political risk provide insights on fruitful directions for future research, which are discussed.

To identify research articles on political risk and foreign investment, 13 leading management and international business journals were searched using relevant keywords (January 2000 to January 2023). Moreover, reviewing articles from these journals led to locating and reviewing additional relevant articles that the authors cited. Keyword searches were also conducted on Google Scholar and Web of Science in an effort to identify relevant articles outside of the 13 targeted journals.

Both violent and non-violent aspects of host country political risk have been studied in relation to MNEs' investment decisions. Specifically, five major aspects of host country political risk were identified (government type, public corruption, leadership change, armed conflict and terrorism). Although the general consensus is that risk related to the government often creates obstacles for MNEs, conceptualizations, measures and findings in prior research are not uniform.

This paper provides a comprehensive overview of host country political risk and foreign investment. In doing so, the aspects of political risk are identified, organized and overviewed.

Risk communication and public participation are often hampered by conflicts and mistrust between involved actors. The present paper argues that these problems can be addressed through better mutual understanding. This argument is founded on the conceptualisation of risk communication as a social interaction, which is based on mutual understanding. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the relationship between conflict, mistrust and mutual misunderstanding through a case study.

The case study explores risk communication in relation to high-voltage grid extension in Germany. Conflicts and mutual understanding between involved actors are analysed with the help of the coorientation approach. In total, 16 semi-structured interviews are conducted with grid providers, local politicians and public authorities.

Misunderstandings are exposed between the analysed actors, which are related to mistrust and conflicts. The findings suggest that improved mutual understanding might foster more effective and mutually beneficial risk communication.

Current research fails to sufficiently explain and improve conflicts and mistrust between actors involved in risk communication and public participation. The present paper offers a novel solution by conceptualising risk communication as a social interaction and placing mutual understanding at the centre of the analysis. The paper also introduces the coorientation approach as an analytical tool. Practitioners are advised how to pursue mutual understanding. Future research is encouraged to advance the comprehension of risk communication.

Decisions to initiate conflict often have an irrevocable character. They tend to transform the status quo in ways that it is often foreseen only with difficulty beforehand, and this change is then mostly impossible to undo. The sentence attributed to Colin Powell talking to President Bush about the Iraq War, “You break it, you own it,” illustrates the issue quite well. Closely linked to irrevocability is the issue of conflict costs. The uncertainty about conflicts and wars is due not only to the identity of the eventual winner but also to the costs inflicted upon the parties including the victorious ones. Often, prospective losers such as Napoleon and Hitler were initial winners who were in the end defeated by an accumulation of war costs they could not master.11There is some evidence that Napoleon, and then Hitler, were driven by increasing needs to absorb more and more territories. Clearly, Napoleon sold Louisiana to Jefferson to replenish his war chest and Hitler pillaged the central banks of conquered countries to support German military expenses. It is mostly the sunk costs associated with war that account for the irrevocability problem. Unfortunately, the literature on the formal analysis of war has not dealt with this matter, representing instead conflict as involving fixed costs or fixed cost expectancies at the onset. Additional cost estimates that should be taken by a decision-maker due to possible failures or irreversibility of actions are not considered. This is nowhere more evident than in the so-called bargaining model of conflict and war, whose numerous sometimes hidden assumptions have to be discussed and analyzed. The goal of this paper is to show that irrevocable decisions add to the cost of making them. Belligerent parties often have a tendency to minimize these especially, and this is an interesting twist of the analysis of irrevocable decision-making, if estimations of the gains of war are made on the basis of risk neutral expected utility calculations. The latter consideration leads me then to formulate alternative theories of war and conflict under the assumption of rationality.

This study aims to explore the topic of perceived terrorism risk and animosity as interrelated within the context of countries suffering from armed struggles and terror. The research investigates how these constructs influence the visitation decisions of millennials.

The investigation focuses on three countries in the Mediterranean basin with varied degrees of risk but who include a conflict area, for comparison purposes. The data was collected through an online questionnaire aimed at young millennial students.

The study confirms that animosity, for the millennial generation, is derived from conflicts and past historical events, or from political and social issues in the target country. In addition, the results show that animosity not only influences the perceived attractiveness of the destination, and through it the intention to visit the place, but also increases the perceptions of terror risk at the destination.

The research corroborates the importance of investigating animosity and perceived risk together. It also empirically verifies the influence of animosity on visitation intentions via the mediating role of perceived attractiveness of the destination and perceived risk of terror.

The study investigates animosity in countries that suffer from armed political conflicts resulting in terror attacks, a context different from that of other already existing studies. The research also examines how animosity and perceived risk interact with each other to influence visitation decisions, a topic which is lacking in the literature.

The notion that disasters are not natural is longstanding, leading to a growing number of campaigns aimed at countering the use of the term “natural disaster.” Whilst these efforts are crucial, critical perspectives regarding the potential risks associated with this process are lacking, particularly in places affected by violent conflict. This paper aims to present a critical analysis of these efforts, highlighting the need to approach them with care.

The author draws upon insights and discussions accumulated over a decade of research into the relationship between disasters and conflict. The article includes a critical literature review on the disaster–conflict relationship and literature specifically addressing the idea that disasters are not natural. The analysis of field notes led to a second literature review covering topics such as (de) politicisation, instrumentalisation, disaster diplomacy, ethics, humanitarian principles, disaster risk reduction, peacebuilding and conflict sensitivity.

This analysis underscores the importance of advocating that disasters are not natural, especially in conflict-affected areas. However, an uncritical approach could lead to unintended consequences, such as exacerbating social conflicts or obstructing disaster-related actions. The article also presents alternatives to advance the understanding that disasters are not natural whilst mitigating risks, such as embracing a “do-no-harm” approach or conflict-sensitive analyses.

The author offers an innovative critical approach to advancing the understanding that disasters are not natural but socio-political. This perspective is advocated, especially in conflict-affected contexts, to address the root causes of both disasters and conflicts. The author also invites their peers and practitioners to prioritise reflective scholarship and practices, aiming to prevent the unintentional exacerbation of suffering whilst working towards its reduction.