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Climate analogues have been extensively used in ecological studies to assess the shift of ecoregions due to climate change and the associated impacts on species survival and displacement, but they have hardly been applied to urban areas and their climate shift. This paper aims to use climate analogues to characterize the climate shift of cities and to explore its implications as well as potential applications of this approach.

The authors propose a methodology to match the current climate of cities with the future climate of other locations and to characterize cities’ climate shift velocity. Employing a sample of 90 European cities, the authors demonstrate the applicability of this method and characterize their climate shift from 1951 to 2100.

Results show that cities’ climate shift follows rather strictly north-to-south transects over the European continent and that the average southward velocity is expected to double throughout the twenty-first century. These rapid shifts will have direct implications for urban infrastructure, risk management and public health services.

These findings appear to be potentially useful for raising awareness of stakeholders and urban dwellers about the pace, magnitude and dynamics of climate change, supporting identification of the future climate impacts and vulnerabilities and implementation of readily available adaptation options, and strengthening cities’ cooperation within climate-related networks.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the sensitivity of ski businesses and of the accommodation sector in Tyrol to warm winter seasons and to draw conclusions for climate change vulnerability.

Operational indicators of ski areas and overnight stays in the destinations were analysed in the record warm winter season 2006/2007. Comparing the climatic anomalies of that season with climate change scenarios, the season can serve as an analogue year for average future winter seasons. By interpreting changes in the analogue year, the potential vulnerability of the winter tourism industry in the study area can be assessed.

While the impact on ski areas was relatively small on the province level, the analysis on the basis of individual businesses showed a high sensitivity of small to medium and low‐altitude ski areas as well as of ski areas with insufficient snowmaking facilities. Significant differences in the impact on the accommodation sector were found on the district level, with longer‐lasting negative effects on the regional tourism economy in two districts with low‐altitude ski areas. Climate change increases the risk of financial losses for individual ski businesses as well as for tourism‐dependent regional economies, as happened in the 2006/2007 season. As the season represents an extreme event, the long‐term effect of a rising frequency of warm winters on demand cannot be assessed.

The paper presents a valuable and inexpensive approach to assess the impact of warm winter seasons on the supply side as well as on the demand side.

This paper aims to propose, for the very first time in Burkina Faso, a “no regret” reference tool to improve policies and processes which could strengthen agricultural water resilience under climate risks and change for sustained food security. Such a framework consists of five pillars derived from the agricultural water vulnerability analysis.

The method combined a new designed tool “ClimProspect”, adapted to the Sahelian climatic context, participatory and analogue approaches.

Innovative “no regret” framework to overcome current and future climate risks on agricultural water requirements has been built.

The paper proposes a new way to assess vulnerability and build resilience for a given system and brings climate and disaster risks together. In fact, in the country, disaster and climate risks are closely associated.

The proposed measures will reinforce water security under climate variability and change and disaster risks, boost the farmers’ participation in water governance and secure the adaptation investment for the long term.

Implementing the proposed measures should provide farmers with agricultural water needs at any time over the year, having access to social protection and sustainably increase their food security.

Method used explicitly allows for paying attention, at the same time, to climate variability and change, disaster risks and social issues. The “no regret” framework is a practical secured tool for policy makers and planners, and it gives them a new way to secure sustainable water requirements.

Purpose – To investigate the potential impacts of future climate change in the United Kingdom on its road and rail networks.

Methodology/approach – The climate change impacts of increasing summer temperatures, decreasing winter temperatures, increased heavy precipitation, greater numbers of extreme weather events and rises in sea level are reviewed.

Findings – Surface transportation is the most exposed element to the localised impacts of climate change. High summer temperatures will result in road rutting, rail buckling and decreased thermal comfort, whereas more intense winter precipitation will cause flooding, landslips and bridge scour across all modes. For all impacts, it is the extreme events (e.g. heat waves and storms) that are potentially the most devastating. As shown, there are some positive climate change impacts. For example, in the case of winter maintenance, all transport networks stand to benefit.

Originality/value – In order for transport to react appropriately to the potential changes in climate, it is essential to understand how the road and rail networks may be affected and to build strategies for both adaptation and mitigation into plans for future developments for both modes.

This study aims to investigate the effects of climate change on harvestability for sugarcane-growing regions situated between mountain ranges and the narrow east Australian coastline.

Daily rainfall simulations from 11 general circulation models (GCMs) were downscaled for seven Australian sugarcane regions (1961:2000). Unharvestable days were calculated from these 11 GCMs and compared to interpolated observed data. The historical downscaled GCM simulations were then compared to simulations under low (B1) and high (A2) emissions scenarios for the period of 2046-2065. The 25th, 50th and 75th percentiles of paired model differences were assessed using 95 per cent bootstrapped confidence intervals.

A decrease in the number of unharvestable days for the Burdekin (winter/spring) and Bundaberg (winter) regions and an increase for the Herbert region (spring) were plausible under the A2 scenario. Spatial plots identified variability within regions. Northern and southern regions were more variable than central regions.

Changes to the frequency of unharvestable days may require a range of management adaptations such as modifying the harvest period and upgrading harvesting technologies.

The application of a targeted industry rainfall parameter (unharvestable days) obtained from downscaled climate models provided a novel approach to investigate the impacts of climate change. This research forms a baseline for industry discussion and adaptation planning towards an environmentally and economically sustainable future. The methodology outlined can easily be extended to other primary industries impacted by wet weather.

One of the principal tools in analyzing climate change control policies is integrated assessment modeling. While indispensable for asking logical “what if” questions, such as the cost-effectiveness of alternative policies or the economic efficiency of carbon taxes versus R&D subsidies, integrated assessment models (IAMs) can only produce “answers” that are as good as their underlying assumptions and structural fidelity to a very complex multi-component system. However, due to the complexity of the models, the assumptions underlying the models are often obscured. It is especially important to identify how IAMs treat uncertainty and the value-laden assumptions underlying the analysis.In particular, IAMs have difficulty adequately addressing the issue of uncertainty inherent to the study of climate change, its impacts, and appropriate policy responses. In this chapter, we discuss how uncertainty about climate damages influences the conclusions from IAMs and the policy implications. Specifically, estimating climate damages using information from extreme events, contemporary spatial climate analogs and subjective probability assessments, transients, “imaginable” surprises, adaptation, market distortions and technological change are given as examples of problematic areas that IA modelers need to explicitly address and make transparent of IAMs are to enlighten more than they conceal.

The aim of this paper is to clarify distinct aspects of firm culture, delineate its effects on performance outcomes, and to examine culture intensity on theoretic grounds with attention to its effects and limits.

The study analyzes a data set of 2,657 individual cases that are empirically aggregated into 302 organizational units. Its operationalization of culture intensity derives from distinct culture theory. Hypothesized relations are examined via structural equation modeling and hierarchical regression analysis.

Structural equation modeling results show culture relates positively to cooperation, coordination, and performance. Hierarchical regression analysis results show intensity influences cooperation and coordination directly and does not moderate culture's relations with those outcomes.

The large scale empirical study of a broad diversity of firms has advantages over smaller and more targeted studies of lesser generalizability.

Firms with cultures of higher intensity can enhance performance indirectly by driving cooperation and coordination directly.

Culture entails shared values and touches the human side of a firm. Managers can promote a firm's culture to enhance cooperation and coordination outcomes within that firm which, in turn, influence firm performance.

This study distinguishes culture from climate on conceptual grounds. Climate strength, an analog of culture intensity, is known to moderate climate's relations with outcomes. By contrast, this study shows that culture intensity has a main effect on outcomes, in line with culture's distinct theoretic bases.

Recent advances in hydrological impact studies point that the response of specific catchments to climate change scenario using a single model approach is questionable. This study was aimed at investigating the impact of climate change on three river basins in China, Ethiopia and Norway using WASMOD and HBV hydrological models.

First, hydrological models' parameters were determined using current hydro‐climatic data inputs. Second, the historical time series of climatic data was adjusted according to the climate change scenarios. Third, the hydrological characteristics of the catchments under the adjusted climatic conditions were simulated using the calibrated hydrological models. Finally, comparisons of the model simulations of the current and possible future hydrological characteristics were performed. Responses were evaluated in terms of runoff, actual evapotranspiration and soil moisture change for incremental precipitation and temperature change scenarios.

From the results obtained, it can be inferred that two equally well calibrated models gave different hydrological response to hypothetical climatic scenarios. The authors' findings support the concern that climate change analysis using lumped hydrological models may lead to unreliable conclusions.

Extrapolation of driving forces (temperature and precipitation) beyond the range of parameter calibration yields unreliable response. It is beyond the scope of this study to reduce this model ambiguity, but reduction of uncertainty is a challenge for further research.

The research was conducted based on the primary time series data using the existing two hydrological models to test the magnitude differences one can expect when using different hydrological models to simulate hydrological response of climate changes in different climate zones.

Organization Development, as widely practiced in schools, is characterised by a diagnosis of organizational problems that is carried out collaboratively by facilitator and client. The design of the Organization Development intervention is presumably based upon this diagnosis. Since Organization Development is a planned, sustained effort to change the organization's culture in significant ways one might expect the diagnostic procedures to utilise systematic techniques for assessing organization culture. Further, these diagnostic techniques should reflect a conceptually unambiguous understanding of the nature of organizational culture and its elements. An enquiry of 83 American Organization Development consultants with experience as facilitators in public schools indicated that only seven reported using one or more of the recognised assessment techniques for which there are published data concerning factor structure, reliability and validity. Others reported utilising various combinations of interviews and paper‐and‐pencil techniques developed for local use. The authors discuss the implications of their findings in terms of Organization Development technology through scientific efforts.

The aim of this paper is to present the relationship between climate and tourism development data as an example of an emerging winter and ski tourism destination in Slovakia.

The method aims to discover the relationship through snow-reliability and regression analyses and to further implicate the consequences of such established relationship under a changing (warming) climate.

As a result of the research, the authors can predict that a 1 per cent fall in snow depth and visibility would erode the ski demand by 1.2 and 0.12 per cent, respectively, a 1°C rise of the mean temperature, on the other hand, would indicate a 6 per cent loss of skipass sales. The latter finding translates into a further 6.6 to 19.2 per cent loss of sales on account of the anticipated temperature increases for the twenty-first century. The capacity of the resort for the utmost adaptation strategy, snowmaking, is also to deteriorate with the daytime/fulltime annual good quality production range to reduce from 33/45 days to 10-26/14-34 days, according to the emissions-related warming scenarios and in terms of the commonly available current technology.

The results of the study can help the management of ski resorts to adopt strategies for the future development by taking into account the predicted climatic changes.

This study is the first type of study performed in Slovakia and can contribute to the better understanding of the relationship between climate change and the performance of the ski tourism resorts. It also delivers innovation by considering wet-bulb temperature in snow-reliability analyses and also by coining the “climate elasticity” concept.