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This paper aims to analyse the most significant disruptive events affecting tourism during the twenty-first century, particularly the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.

Based on a thorough literature review, this study takes a complexity science approach to the field of tourism to shed light on the challenges of disruptive events in tourism systems.

Focusing on the COVID-19 pandemic, in particular, this study acknowledges that disruptive events are complex and have tremendous impacts on several areas of society: people’s psychological well-being and the health-care system, as well as social, economic, cultural, technological, environmental and political dimensions. Whether they occur alone or interact, these dimensions add varying levels of complexity to the tourism system. In response, the tourism industry can adopt a resilience model as a crisis management tool to address disruptive events affecting this field.

As this paper is mainly theoretical, future empirical research will contribute to refining the findings and testing the usefulness of the proposed model.

The paper looks at examples of successful and unsuccessful of COVID-19 outbreak management in various countries to analyse issues such as crisis management, resilience and tools for coping with the impacts of disruptive events.

This theoretical paper proposes a first taxonomy of the multidimensional impacts of twenty-first-century disruptive events on tourism and dissects the phases of crisis management, with a corresponding conceptual model.

本文分析了21世纪影响旅游业的最为重要的破坏性事件, 尤其关注2020年新型冠状病毒肺炎大流行

本文将复杂性科学方法应用于旅游领域, 通过全面的文献综述, 揭示破坏性事件给旅游系统带来的挑战。

本文承认破坏性事件, 特别是新型冠状病毒肺炎大流行, 复杂且影响巨大, 涉及心理、医疗、社会、经济、文化、技术、环境和政治等诸多方面。这些影响不管是单一的还是相互作用的, 都在不同程度上增加了旅游系统的复杂性。旅游业可以将弹性模型作为危机管理工具, 以应对其领域内的破坏性事件。

本文首次提出了21世纪破坏性事件对旅游业的多维影响的分类法, 并对危机管理的各个阶段进行了剖析。本文还提出了一个综合模型。

由于本文以理论为主, 未来的实证研究将有助于完善研究结果和验证所提出模型的实用性。

本文着眼于不同国家新冠疫情管理的成功和失败案例, 分析危机管理、复原力以及应对破坏性事件影响的方法等问题。

Identificar los eventos disruptivos mundiales más importantes que han afectado el turismo en el siglo XXI poniendo especial atención en la pandemia causada por el COVID-19 en el 2020.

Mediante un enfoque a las ciencias de la complejidad aplicado al turismo y una exhaustiva revisión bibliográfica, este artículo esclarece el reto que significa un evento disruptivo en el turismo.

Los eventos disruptivos, en particular el COVID-19, son complejos y generan un alto impacto tanto en el aspecto psicológico, sanitario, social, económico, cultural, tecnológico, medioambiental y político. En su interacción, todos ellos añaden un diferente grado de complejidad al sistema del turismo. Este artículo propone adoptar un modelo de resiliencia como herramienta de gestión de crisis para afrontar eventos disruptivos en el campo del turismo.

Proponer una primera clasificación de los impactos multidimensionales de los eventos disruptivos del siglo XXI en el turismo y un desglose de las fases de gestión de crisis, como así también proponer un modelo integrador de ambos aspectos propios de un evento disruptivo.

Debido al carácter teórico de este artículo, el modelo integrador sugerido representa un marco prometedor para futuras investigaciones en el plano empírico.

Este artículo presta atención a aquellos países que han gestionado la pandemia de forma exitosa o no, para así tener una mejor noción de gestión de crisis y herramientas para hacer frente a futuros eventos disruptivos.

No matter how much human beings strive to make strictly rational choices, they are incapable of doing so because human knowledge is limited and suffers the influence of psychological aspects. This paper aims to demonstrate how the use of foresight methods has contributed to minimize problems inherent to human rationality through a qualitative descriptive study of the case of the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation – Embrapa.

This paper collected primary and secondary data through document analysis and interviews with managers of the Embrapa’s strategic intelligence system (SIS), Agropensa (a recognized success case of strategic intelligence (SI)/futures studies in Brazilian public administration).

The results show that it was possible to strengthen corporate behavior in the long term, minimize biases inherent to the decision-making process and bring relevant information into the management of the organization. Foresight methods and tools have made it possible to mitigate problems arising from bounded rationality (BR) in the Embrapa’s decision-making processes. The change in company’s culture potentiated long-term views and access to future-bearing information. Embrapa’s SIS contributes to mitigate difficulties inherent to human nature by bringing uncertainty into managerial discussions.

Taking in consideration all the advances in the future studies/SI approach, this paper realizes that this particular practical case can contribute to scientific community deepening the understanding of how a structure dedicated to run future studies/SI can diminish BR impacts on the company’s decision-making process.

The purpose of this research was to determine the current status of the library services for visually impaired and physically handicapped people in Argentina.

A survey was made of 20 different libraries throughout Argentina that provide services for visually impaired and physically handicapped people. A questionnaire composed of 114 questions based on American Library Association guidelines was developed and delivered by e‐mail and post to participating libraries. Additionally, visits were made to ten of these libraries with the objective of obtaining information by means of interviews with their respective directors as well as library personnel and users who were present at the time of the visit.

It was concluded that these libraries are not in a position to provide the best library services for visually impaired and physically handicapped individuals: it was seen that there are still many things to correct and improve.

It is considered that the present model of special libraries in Argentina is a possible contributor to the isolation and confinement of visually impaired and physically handicapped people. For this reason a new model of service should be considered. This should take into account an integrated library approach based on the Unesco manifesto 1994 for public libraries. It is suggested that the Unesco model of integrating universal library services will effectively ensure access to information for visually impaired and physically handicapped people, thus ensuring “a public library for everyone”.