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COVID-19 has affected the economies adversely from all sides. The sudden halt in production has impacted both the supply and demand sides. It calls for analysis to quantify the impact of the reduction in economic activity on the economy-wide variables so that appropriate steps can be taken. This study aims to evaluate the sensitivity of various sectors of the Indian economy to this dual shock.

The eight-sector open economy general equilibrium Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model has been simulated to evaluate the sector-specific effects of a fall in economic activity due to COVID-19. This model uses an economy-wide accounting framework to quantify the impact of a shock on the given equilibrium economy and report the post-simulation new equilibrium values.

The empirical results state that welfare for the Indian economy falls to the tune of 7.70% due to output shock. Because of demand–supply linkages, it also impacts the inter- and intra-industry flows, demand for factors of production and imports. There is a momentous fall in the demand for factor endowments from all sectors. Among those, the trade-hotel-transport and manufacturing sectors are in the first two positions from the top. The study recommends an immediate revival of the manufacturing and trade-hotel-transport sectors to get the Indian economy back on track.

The present study has modified the existing GTAP model accounting framework through unemployment and output closures to account for the impact of change in sectoral output due to COVID-19 on the level of employment and other macroeconomic variables.

The importance of financial dependence of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) on their performance is a relatively unaddressed area of research. Relatedly, whether and to what extent foreign bank penetration exerts an impact in the presence of financial dependence also remains an open question. The purpose of the paper in this regard is to exploit unit-level data on Indian SMEs and assess the independent and interactive effects of financial dependence on SME behaviour, in the presence of foreign banks.

This study uses fixed effects specification to address the issue. In subsequent analysis, this study also uses an instrumental variable approach for robustness.

The results indicate that financial dependence improves investment and employment, although there is a decline in productivity. These findings differ across size classes of SMEs. Similar is the evidence in the presence of foreign banks. In particular, foreign bank penetration leads to a decline in investment for micro and medium SMEs, although for small SMEs, the impact is found to be the opposite.

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is one of the early within-country studies to examine the interface between SMEs and financial dependence and the role played by foreign banks in this regard.