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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of bias error resulted from using Monte Carlo simulation in evaluating the American-style option value.

The authors develop an analytical approximation formula to quantify the bias error under the assumption of conditionally independent and identically distributed samples of asset prices. The bias arises from the nested optimization and expectation calculation. The formula is then used to numerically quantify the bias and as an objective function for bias minimization for a given budget of samples.

Monte Carlo methods used in valuation of American-style options can results in bias error ranging from 2 to 10 per cent of the option value. The bias error can be reduced up to 50 per cent either by performing a better scheme for sampling or by efficiently allocating sample size.

The running time of the proposed procedure can be improved by using a specialized algorithm to solve the sample size allocation problem instead of using a commercially available subroutine MINOS. Other sampling procedures for bias reduction may be extended and applied to this multi-stage problem.

The methodology can help to more accurately approximate the option value.

The paper provides a method to develop an analytical approximation for bias error and provide a numerical experiment to test the methodology.

An extensive literature in econometrics focuses on finding the exact and approximate first and second moments of the least-squares estimator in the stable first-order linear autoregressive model with normally distributed errors. Recently, Kiviet and Phillips (2005) developed approximate moments for the linear autoregressive model with a unit root and normally distributed errors. An objective of this paper is to analyze moments of the estimator in the first-order autoregressive model with a unit root and nonnormal errors. In particular, we develop new analytical approximations for the first two moments in terms of model parameters and the distribution parameters. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we find that our approximate formula perform quite well across different distribution specifications in small samples. However, when the noise to signal ratio is huge, bias distortion can be quite substantial, and our approximations do not fare well.

For kernel-based estimators, smoothness conditions ensure that the asymptotic rate at which the bias goes to zero is determined by the kernel order. In a finite sample, the leading term in the expansion of the bias may provide a poor approximation. We explore the relation between smoothness and bias and provide estimators for the degree of the smoothness and the bias. We demonstrate the existence of a linear combination of estimators whose trace of the asymptotic mean-squared error is reduced relative to the individual estimator at the optimal bandwidth. We examine the finite-sample performance of a combined estimator that minimizes the trace of the MSE of a linear combination of individual kernel estimators for a multimodal density. The combined estimator provides a robust alternative to individual estimators that protects against uncertainty about the degree of smoothness.

This chapter develops a novel bootstrap procedure to obtain robust bias-corrected confidence intervals in regression discontinuity (RD) designs. The procedure uses a wild bootstrap from a second-order local polynomial to estimate the bias of the local linear RD estimator; the bias is then subtracted from the original estimator. The bias-corrected estimator is then bootstrapped itself to generate valid confidence intervals (CIs). The CIs generated by this procedure are valid under conditions similar to Calonico, Cattaneo, and Titiunik’s (2014) analytical correction – that is, when the bias of the naive RD estimator would otherwise prevent valid inference. This chapter also provides simulation evidence that our method is as accurate as the analytical corrections and we demonstrate its use through a reanalysis of Ludwig and Miller’s (2007) Head Start dataset.

This paper considers the finite-sample distribution of the 2SLS estimator and derives bounds on its exact bias in the presence of weak and/or many instruments. We then contrast the behavior of the exact bias expressions and the asymptotic expansions currently popular in the literature, including a consideration of the no-moment problem exhibited by many Nagar-type estimators. After deriving a finite-sample unbiased k-class estimator, we introduce a double-k-class estimator based on Nagar (1962) that dominates k-class estimators (including 2SLS), especially in the cases of weak and/or many instruments. We demonstrate these properties in Monte Carlo simulations showing that our preferred estimators outperform Fuller (1977) estimators in terms of mean bias and MSE.

We derive marginal conditions of optimality (i.e., Euler equations) for a general class of Dynamic Discrete Choice (DDC) structural models. These conditions can be used to estimate structural parameters in these models without having to solve for approximate value functions. This result extends to discrete choice models the GMM-Euler equation approach proposed by Hansen and Singleton (1982) for the estimation of dynamic continuous decision models. We first show that DDC models can be represented as models of continuous choice where the decision variable is a vector of choice probabilities. We then prove that the marginal conditions of optimality and the envelope conditions required to construct Euler equations are also satisfied in DDC models. The GMM estimation of these Euler equations avoids the curse of dimensionality associated to the computation of value functions and the explicit integration over the space of state variables. We present an empirical application and compare estimates using the GMM-Euler equations method with those from maximum likelihood and two-step methods.

I derive the finite-sample bias of the conditional Gaussian maximum likelihood estimator in ARMA models when the error follows some unknown non-normal distribution. The general procedure relies on writing down the score function and its higher order derivative matrices in terms of quadratic forms in the non-normal error vector with the help of matrix calculus. Evaluation of the bias can then be straightforwardly conducted. I give further simplified bias results for some special cases and compare with the existing results in the literature. Simulations are provided to confirm my simplified bias results.

Principal component (PC) techniques are commonly used to improve the small sample properties of the linear instrumental variables (IV) estimator. Carrasco (2012) argue that PC type methods provide a natural ranking of instruments with which to reduce the size of the instrument set. This chapter shows how reducing the size of the instrument based on PC methods can lead to poor small sample properties of IV estimators. A new approach to ordering instruments termed ‘normalized principal components’ (NPCs) is introduced to overcome this problem. A simulation study shows the favourable small samples properties of IV estimators using NPC, methods to reduce the size of the instrument relative to PC. Using NPC we provide evidence that the IV setup in Angrist and Krueger (1992) may not suffer the weak instrument problem.

This chapter analyzes the properties of an alternative least-squares based estimator for linear panel data models with general predetermined regressors. This approach uses backward means of regressors to approximate individual specific fixed effects (FE). The author analyzes sufficient conditions for this estimator to be asymptotically efficient, and argue that, in comparison with the FE estimator, the use of backward means leads to a non-trivial bias-variance tradeoff. The author complements theoretical analysis with an extensive Monte Carlo study, where the author finds that some of the currently available results for restricted AR(1) model cannot be easily generalized, and should be extrapolated with caution.

Let f (x) be a probability density function. The problem of estimating the functional ∫f2(x) dx by the Method of Frequency Moments is considered. An expression for the asymptotic mean squared error of the proposed estimator is given. The results are applied to the estimation of the reciprocal of the scale parameter in the Cauchy and Pareto distributions. An approximation for the bias in the Method of Frequency Moments is given, and a two step estimation procedure is discussed.