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This chapter analyzes the properties of an alternative least-squares based estimator for linear panel data models with general predetermined regressors. This approach uses backward means of regressors to approximate individual specific fixed effects (FE). The author analyzes sufficient conditions for this estimator to be asymptotically efficient, and argue that, in comparison with the FE estimator, the use of backward means leads to a non-trivial bias-variance tradeoff. The author complements theoretical analysis with an extensive Monte Carlo study, where the author finds that some of the currently available results for restricted AR(1) model cannot be easily generalized, and should be extrapolated with caution.

We compare the finite sample power of short- and long-horizon tests in nonlinear predictive regression models of regime switching between bull and bear markets, allowing for time varying transition probabilities. As a point of reference, we also provide a similar comparison in a linear predictive regression model without regime switching. Overall, our results do not support the contention of higher power in longer horizon tests in either the linear or nonlinear regime switching models. Nonetheless, it is possible that other plausible nonlinear models provide stronger justification for long-horizon tests.

In recent decades, the use of capital punishment has declined, but in its place, a ‘new death penalty’ has arisen: life without parole (LWOP), which is being used far more frequently and for more crimes than capital punishment ever was. Yet, LWOP has received far less scholarly attention than the death penalty. Because of its greater scale, assessing the effects of LWOP on crime has important policy implications and is a better test of extreme penalties. Existing studies of LWOP focus on humanitarian issues and ignore its potentially reciprocal relationship with crime. Therefore, we use available LWOP data to fill these gaps in the literature, using models specifically designed to control for potential reciprocal effects. The results indicate there is no reciprocal causation between LWOP and violent crime and, at best, LWOP’s impact on crime is small, temporary, and, most importantly, no greater than the impact of life with parole.

The recent rise of nonperforming loans (NPLs) in some Asian economies calls for close analysis of the determinants, the potential macrofinancial feedback effects, and the implications for financial stability in the region. Using a dynamic panel model, we assess the determinants of the evolution of bank-specific NPLs in Asia and find that macroeconomic conditions and bank-specific factors – such as rapid credit growth and excessive bank lending – contribute to the buildup of NPLs. Further, a panel vector autoregression (VAR) analysis of macrofinancial implications of NPLs in emerging Asia offers significant evidence for feedback effects of NPLs on the real economy and financial variables. Impulse response functions demonstrate that a rising NPL ratio decreases the GDP growth, credit supply and increases the unemployment rate. Our findings underline the importance of considering policy options to swiftly and effectively manage and respond to a buildup of NPLs. The national and regional mechanisms underlying NPL resolution are important for safeguarding financial stability in an increasingly interconnected global financial system.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of structural economic vulnerability of developing countries on their public indebtedness.

The authors perform the analysis by the use of fixed effects technique where the standard errors are corrected by the Driscoll-Kraay (1998) method. The panel covers 96 developing countries over the period 1980-2008.

The results suggest evidence of a “U-shaped” relationship between the structural vulnerability and the total public debt in developing countries. More particularly in low-income countries (LICs), the structural vulnerability appears to be a strong determinant of the build-up of the total public debt.

It would be interesting to extend the research to small Island developing states. Indeed, the authors do not include this group of countries because of lack of data, especially on the variable “quality of governance” for almost all countries of this group. Accordingly, the research should be extended to such countries as well as these data are available.

The implications of the study is that international institutions, including those of the Bretton Woods should take into account the structural vulnerability of developing countries when designing development policies, especially the ones related to debt sustainability in developing countries and particularly LICs.

The fact of the international institutions to take into account the structural vulnerability in the design of international development policy, especially those related to debt issues will have major implications on the macroeconomic policy design by these developing countries as well as on poverty reduction.

The added value of this paper is to use recent data on structural vulnerability to analyse the effect of the latter on public indebtdeness of developing countries.

Because of the 2008 global financial crisis aftermaths, economic downturn and prolonged recession, several OECD countries have adopted an austerity compound by significantly reducing public health expenditure (PHE) for dealing with their fiscal pressure and sovereign-debt challenges. Against this backdrop, this study aims to examine the responsiveness of PHE to macro-fiscal determinants, demography, as well to private health insurance (PHI) financing.

The authors gather annual panel data from four international organizations databases for the total of OECD countries from a period lasting from 2000 to 2017. The authors apply static and dynamic econometric methodology to deal with panel data and assess the impact of several parameters on PHE.

The authors’ findings indicate that gross domestic product, fiscal capacity, tax revenues and population aging have a positive effect on PHE. Further, the authors find that both unemployment rate and voluntary private health insurance financing present a negative statistically significant impact on our estimated outcome variable. Different specifications and sample periods applied in the regression models reveal how inseparably associated are PHE and OECD's economies compliance on macro-fiscal policies for offsetting public finances derailment.

Providing more evidence on the responsiveness of PHE to several macro-fiscal drivers, it can be a helpful tool for governments to reconsider their persistence on fiscal adjustments measures and rank public health financing to the top of their political agenda. Health systems policies for meeting Universal Health Coverage (UHC) objectives, they should also take into consideration the voluntary PHI institution, especially for economies with insufficient fiscal capacity to raise public health financing.

To the best of knowledge, the impact of unemployment and voluntary PHI funding on public health financing, apart from other macro-fiscal and demographical parameters effect, remains unnoticed in the existing published studies on the topic.

This study aims to investigate the effect of corruption on military expenditures in three income level countries. An annual data series of 97 countries covering high-income, middle-income, and low-income regions from 1997 to 2015 is used.

The cross-sectional dependency and integration property of the data series was checked before applying the generalized method of moments approach to test the model.

The results of the system generalized method of moments approach suggest that corruption increases the military budget of high-income countries, whereas corruption reduces the military budget of the middle- and low-income countries.

This paper offers some substantial implications for the policymakers of each income group to curb corruption and improve economic development.