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The study examines the impact of behavioral biases, such as herd behavior, overconfidence and reactions to ESG News, on Socially Responsible Investing (SRI) decisions in the Indian context. Additionally, it explores gender differences in SRI decisions, thereby deepening the understanding of the factors shaping SRI choices and their implications for sustainable finance and gender-inclusive investment strategies.

The study employs Bayesian linear regression to analyze the impact of behavioral biases on SRI decisions among Indian investors since it accommodates uncertainties and integrates prior knowledge into the analysis. Posterior distributions are determined using the Markov chain Monte Carlo technique, ensuring robust and reliable results.

The presence of behavioral biases presents challenges and opportunities in the financial sector, hindering investors’ SRI engagement but offering valuable opportunities for targeted interventions. Peer advice and hot stocks strongly predict SRI engagement, indicating external influences. Investors reacting to extreme ESG events increasingly integrate sustainability into investment decisions. Gender differences reveal a greater inclination of women towards SRI in India.

The sample size was relatively small and restricted to a specific geographic region, which may limit the generalizability of the findings to other areas. While efforts were made to select a diverse sample, the results may represent something different than the broader population. The research focused solely on individual investors and did not consider the perspectives of institutional investors or other stakeholders in the SRI industry.

The study's practical implications are twofold. First, knowing how behavioral biases, such as herd behavior, overconfidence, and reactions to ESG news, affect SRI decisions can help investors and managers make better and more sustainable investment decisions. To reduce biases and encourage responsible investing, strategies might be created. In addition, the discovery of gender differences in SRI decisions, with women showing a stronger propensity, emphasizes the need for targeted marketing and communication strategies to promote more engagement in sustainable finance. These implications provide valuable insights for investors, managers, and policymakers seeking to advance sustainable investment practices.

The study has important social implications. It offers insights into the factors influencing individuals' SRI decisions, contributing to greater awareness and responsible investment practices. The gender disparities found in the study serve as a reminder of the importance of inclusivity in sustainable finance to promote balanced and equitable participation. Addressing these disparities can empower individuals of both genders to contribute to positive social and environmental change. Overall, the study encourages responsible investing and has a beneficial social impact by working towards a more sustainable and socially conscious financial system.

This study addresses a significant research gap by employing Bayesian linear regression method to examine the impact of behavioral biases on SRI decisions thereby offering more meaningful results compared to conventional frequentist estimation. Furthermore, the integration of behavioral finance with sustainable finance offers novel perspectives, contributing to the understanding of investors, investment managers, and policymakers, therefore, catalyzing responsible capital allocation. The study's exploration of gender dynamics adds a new dimension to the existing research on SRI and behavioral finance.

The purposes of this research are to study the theory and method of multi-attribute index system design and establish a set of systematic, standardized, scientific index systems for the design optimization and inspection process. The research may form the basis for a rational, comprehensive evaluation and provide the most effective way of improving the quality of management decision-making. It is of practical significance to improve the rationality and reliability of the index system and provide standardized, scientific reference standards and theoretical guidance for the design and construction of the index system.

Using modern methods such as complex networks and machine learning, a system for the quality diagnosis of index data and the classification and stratification of index systems is designed. This guarantees the quality of the index data, realizes the scientific classification and stratification of the index system, reduces the subjectivity and randomness of the design of the index system, enhances its objectivity and rationality and lays a solid foundation for the optimal design of the index system.

Based on the ideas of statistics, system theory, machine learning and data mining, the focus in the present research is on “data quality diagnosis” and “index classification and stratification” and clarifying the classification standards and data quality characteristics of index data; a data-quality diagnosis system of “data review – data cleaning – data conversion – data inspection” is established. Using a decision tree, explanatory structural model, cluster analysis, K-means clustering and other methods, classification and hierarchical method system of indicators is designed to reduce the redundancy of indicator data and improve the quality of the data used. Finally, the scientific and standardized classification and hierarchical design of the index system can be realized.

The innovative contributions and research value of the paper are reflected in three aspects. First, a method system for index data quality diagnosis is designed, and multi-source data fusion technology is adopted to ensure the quality of multi-source, heterogeneous and mixed-frequency data of the index system. The second is to design a systematic quality-inspection process for missing data based on the systematic thinking of the whole and the individual. Aiming at the accuracy, reliability, and feasibility of the patched data, a quality-inspection method of patched data based on inversion thought and a unified representation method of data fusion based on a tensor model are proposed. The third is to use the modern method of unsupervised learning to classify and stratify the index system, which reduces the subjectivity and randomness of the design of the index system and enhances its objectivity and rationality.

Factor analysis is the most used tool in organizational research and its widespread use in scale validations contribute to decision-making in management. However, standard factor analysis is not always applied correctly mainly due to the misuse of ordinal data as interval data and the inadequacy of the former for classical factor analysis. The purpose of this paper is to present and apply the Bayesian factor analysis for mixed data (BFAMD) in the context of empirical using the Bayesian paradigm for the construction of scales.

Ignoring the categorical nature of some variables often used in management studies, as the popular Likert scale, may result in a model with false accuracy and possibly biased estimates. To address this issue, Quinn (2004) proposed a Bayesian factor analysis model for mixed data, which is capable of modeling ordinal (qualitative measure) and continuous data (quantitative measure) jointly and allows the inclusion of qualitative information through prior distributions for the parameters’ model. This model, adopted here, presents considering advantages and allows the estimation of the posterior distribution for the latent variables estimated, making the process of inference easier.

The results show that BFAMD is an effective approach for scale validation in management studies making both exploratory and confirmatory analyses possible for the estimated factors and also allowing the analysts to insert a priori information regardless of the sample size, either by using the credible intervals for Factor Loadings or by conducting specific hypotheses tests. The flexibility of the Bayesian approach presented is counterbalanced by the fact that the main estimates used in factor analysis as uniqueness and communalities commonly lose their usual interpretation due to the choice of using prior distributions.

Considering that the development of scales through factor analysis aims to contribute to appropriate decision-making in management and the increasing misuse of ordinal scales as interval in organizational studies, this proposal seems to be effective for mixed data analyses. The findings found here are not intended to be conclusive or limiting but offer a useful starting point from which further theoretical and empirical research of Bayesian factor analysis can be built.

This study aims to develop an assessment methodology using a Bayesian network (BN) to predict the failure probability of oil tanker shipping firms.

This paper proposes a bankruptcy prediction model by applying the hybrid of logistic regression and Bayesian probabilistic networks.

The proposed model shows its potential of contributing to a powerful tool to predict financial bankruptcy of shipping operators, and provides important insights to the maritime community as to what performance measures should be taken to ensure the shipping companies’ financial soundness under dynamic environments.

The model and its associated variables can be expanded to include more factors for an in-depth analysis in future when the detailed information at firm level becomes available.

The results of this study can be implemented to oil tanker shipping firms as a prediction tool for bankruptcy rate.

Incorporating quantitative statistical measurement, the application of BN in financial risk management provides advantages to develop a powerful early warning system in shipping, which has unique characteristics such as capital intensive and mobile assets, possibly leading to catastrophic consequences.

This paper aims to introduce a non-invasive and convenient method to detect a life-threatening disease called aortic dissection. A Bayesian inference based on enhanced multi-sensors impedance cardiography (ICG) method has been applied to classify signals from healthy and sick patients.

A 3D numerical model consisting of simplified organ geometries is used to simulate the electrical impedance changes in the ICG-relevant domain of the human torso. The Bayesian probability theory is used for detecting an aortic dissection, which provides information about the probabilities for both cases, a dissected and a healthy aorta. Thus, the reliability and the uncertainty of the disease identification are found by this method and may indicate further diagnostic clarification.

The Bayesian classification shows that the enhanced multi-sensors ICG is more reliable in detecting aortic dissection than conventional ICG. Bayesian probability theory allows a rigorous quantification of all uncertainties to draw reliable conclusions for the medical treatment of aortic dissection.

This paper presents a non-invasive and reliable method based on a numerical simulation that could be beneficial for the medical management of aortic dissection patients. With this method, clinicians would be able to monitor the patient’s status and make better decisions in the treatment procedure of each patient.

The purpose of the food traceability is used to retain the good quality of raw material supply, diminish the loss and reduced system complexity.

The proposed hybrid algorithm is for food traceability to make accurate predictions and enhanced period data. The operation of the internet of things is addressed to track and trace the food quality to check the data acquired from manufacturers and consumers.

In order to survive with the existing financial circumstances and the development of global food supply chain, the authors propose efficient food traceability techniques using the internet of things and obtain a solution for data prediction.

The operation of the internet of things is addressed to track and trace the food quality to check the data acquired from manufacturers and consumers. The experimental analysis depicts that proposed algorithm has high accuracy rate, less execution time and error rate.

This paper reviews the current literature on theoretical and methodological issues in discrete choice experiments, which have been widely used in non-market value analysis, such as elicitation of residents' attitudes toward recreation or biodiversity conservation of forests.

We review the literature, and attribute the possible biases in choice experiments to theoretical and empirical aspects. Particularly, we introduce regret minimization as an alternative to random utility theory and sheds light on incentive compatibility, status quo, attributes non-attendance, cognitive load, experimental design, survey methods, estimation strategies and other issues.

The practitioners should pay attention to many issues when carrying out choice experiments in order to avoid possible biases. Many alternatives in theoretical foundations, experimental designs, estimation strategies and even explanations should be taken into account in practice in order to obtain robust results.

The paper summarizes the recent developments in methodological and empirical issues of choice experiments and points out the pitfalls and future directions both theoretically and empirically.

Loan default risk or credit risk evaluation is important to financial institutions which provide loans to businesses and individuals. Loans carry the risk of being defaulted. To understand the risk levels of credit users (corporations and individuals), credit providers (bankers) normally collect vast amounts of information on borrowers. Statistical predictive analytic techniques can be used to analyse or to determine the risk levels involved in loans. This paper aims to address the question of default prediction of short-term loans for a Tunisian commercial bank.

The authors have used a database of 924 files of credits granted to industrial Tunisian companies by a commercial bank in the years 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006. The naive Bayesian classifier algorithm was used, and the results show that the good classification rate is of the order of 63.85 per cent. The default probability is explained by the variables measuring working capital, leverage, solvency, profitability and cash flow indicators.

The results of the validation test show that the good classification rate is of the order of 58.66 per cent; nevertheless, the error types I and II remain relatively high at 42.42 and 40.47 per cent, respectively. A receiver operating characteristic curve is plotted to evaluate the performance of the model. The result shows that the area under the curve criterion is of the order of 69 per cent.

The paper highlights the fact that the Tunisian central bank obliged all commercial banks to conduct a survey study to collect qualitative data for better credit notation of the borrowers.

El riesgo de incumplimiento de préstamos o la evaluación del riesgo de crédito es importante para las instituciones financieras que otorgan préstamos a empresas e individuos. Existe el riesgo de que el pago de préstamos no se cumpla. Para entender los niveles de riesgo de los usuarios de crédito (corporaciones e individuos), los proveedores de crédito (banqueros) normalmente recogen gran cantidad de información sobre los prestatarios. Las técnicas analíticas predictivas estadísticas pueden utilizarse para analizar o determinar los niveles de riesgo involucrados en los préstamos. En este artículo abordamos la cuestión de la predicción por defecto de los préstamos a corto plazo para un banco comercial tunecino.

Utilizamos una base de datos de 924 archivos de créditos concedidos a empresas industriales tunecinas por un banco comercial en 2003, 2004, 2005 y 2006. El algoritmo bayesiano de clasificadores se llevó a cabo y los resultados muestran que la tasa de clasificación buena es del orden del 63.85%. La probabilidad de incumplimiento se explica por las variables que miden el capital de trabajo, el apalancamiento, la solvencia, la rentabilidad y los indicadores de flujo de efectivo.

Los resultados de la prueba de validación muestran que la buena tasa de clasificación es del orden de 58.66% ; sin embargo, los errores tipo I y II permanecen relativamente altos, siendo de 42.42% y 40.47%, respectivamente. Se traza una curva ROC para evaluar el rendimiento del modelo. El resultado muestra que el criterio de área bajo curva (AUC, por sus siglas en inglés) es del orden del 69%.

El documento destaca el hecho de que el Banco Central tunecino obligó a todas las entidades del sector llevar a cabo un estudio de encuesta para recopilar datos cualitativos para un mejor registro de crédito de los prestatarios.

Curva ROC, Evaluación de riesgos, Riesgo de incumplimiento, Sector bancario, Algoritmo clasificador bayesiano.

Artículo de investigación