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1 – 10 of over 2000Unggul Heriqbaldi, Miguel Angel Esquivias, Rossanto Dwi Handoyo, Alfira Cahyaning Rifami and Hilda Rohmawati
This paper aims to examine whether Indonesian cross-border trade responds asymmetrically to exchange rate volatility (ERV).
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine whether Indonesian cross-border trade responds asymmetrically to exchange rate volatility (ERV).
Design/methodology/approach
An exponential generalized autorgressive conditional heteroscedasticity model is applied to estimate the ERV of Indonesia and ten main trade partners using quarterly data from 2006 to 2020. A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag estimation is applied to estimate the impact of ERV on cross-border trade. Impacts from the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic are covered. Dynamic panel data is used for the robustness test.
Findings
In the short-run, ERV significantly affects exports to most of the top partners (positively, negatively or both). In the long run, asymmetric effects occur in Indonesia’s exports to five top destinations. The weakening of the Indonesian Rupiah mainly supports exports in the short term. Imports from top partners are also affected by ERV in both the short run and, to a lesser extent, in the long run. Both the GFC and the COVID-19 pandemic reduced trade: for most cases, in the short run. The dynamic panel model suggests that ERV has asymmetric impact on cross-border trade in the long run.
Practical implications
Exchange rate strategies need to avoid a single-side policy approach and, instead, account for exporter and importer differences in risk behaviour and an asymmetric response to ERV in trade. Policymakers need to consider policies that stabilise the currency.
Originality/value
This study provides evidence that cross-border trade can react asymmetrically to the exchange rate uncertainty and that the impacts of real ERV are asymmetric as well. The authors also apply a dynamic panel that signals that ERV matters in the long run for Indonesian trade with top partners.
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Clement Olalekan Olaniyi and Nicholas M. Odhiambo
This study examines the roles of cross-sectional dependence, asymmetric structure and country-to-country policy variations in the inflation-poverty reduction causal nexus in…
Abstract
Purpose
This study examines the roles of cross-sectional dependence, asymmetric structure and country-to-country policy variations in the inflation-poverty reduction causal nexus in selected sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 1981 to 2019.
Design/methodology/approach
To account for cross-sectional dependence, heterogeneity and policy variations across countries in the inflation-poverty reduction causal nexus, this study uses robust Hatemi-J data decomposition procedures and a battery of second-generation techniques. These techniques include cross-sectional dependency tests, panel unit root tests, slope homogeneity tests and the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel Granger non-causality approach.
Findings
Unlike existing studies, the panel and country-specific findings exhibit several dimensions of asymmetric causality in the inflation-poverty nexus. Positive inflationary shocks Granger-causes poverty reduction through investment and employment opportunities that benefit the impoverished in SSA. These findings align with country-specific analyses of Botswana, Cameroon, Gabon, Mauritania, South Africa and Togo. Also, a decline in poverty causes inflation to increase in the Congo Republic, Madagascar, Nigeria, Senegal and Togo. All panel and country-specific analyses reveal at least one dimension of asymmetric causality or another.
Practical implications
All stakeholders and policymakers must pay adequate attention to issues of asymmetric structures, nonlinearities and country-to-country policy variations to address country-specific issues and the socioeconomic problems in the probable causal nexus between the high incidence of extreme poverty and double-digit inflation rates in most SSA countries.
Originality/value
Studies on the inflation-poverty nexus are not uncommon in economic literature. Most existing studies focus on inflation’s effect on poverty. Existing studies that examine the inflation-poverty causal relationship covertly assume no asymmetric structure and nonlinearity. Also, the issues of cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity are unexplored in the causal link in existing studies. All panel studies covertly impose homogeneous policies on countries in the causality. This study relaxes this supposition by allowing policies to vary across countries in the panel framework. Thus, this study makes three-dimensional contributions to increasing understanding of the inflation-poverty nexus.
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Ishfaq Nazir Khanday, Md. Tarique, Inayat Ullah Wani and Muzffar Hussain Dar
The primary objective of the paper is to examine the asymmetric Cointegration and asymmetric causality between financial development and poverty alleviation on annual data in…
Abstract
Purpose
The primary objective of the paper is to examine the asymmetric Cointegration and asymmetric causality between financial development and poverty alleviation on annual data in Indian context over the period from 1980 to 2019.
Design/methodology/approach
First nonlinearity test by Brooks et al. (1999) is applied to ascertain the nonlinear behavior of the variables used. Once the nonlinear behavior of variables is confirmed, asymmetric and nonlinear unit root tests by Kapetanios and Shin (2008) are applied to check for the order of integration of selected variables. Next, nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) is employed to analyze the asymmetric Cointegration. Finally, Hatemi-j- asymmetric causality tests is applied to work out the direction of asymmetric causality.
Findings
The empirical findings document the existence of asymmetries in the short-run as well as long-run between poverty and financial development. The asymmetry reveals that negative financial development shocks leave a more profound impact on poverty alleviation than their positive equivalents. The findings of Wald's test also confirm the presence of asymmetric Cointegration. The asymmetric cumulative dynamic multipliers used to examine the behavior of asymmetries and adjustments with respect to time lend credence to the results calculated using NARDL estimator. This result exhibits the robustness of the model. Furthermore, the result emanating from recently introduced asymmetric causality test reveals a unidirectional asymmetric causality between negative shocks in financial development and poverty. The findings of the present study necessitate the need for investigating asymmetric and nonlinear effects in finance–poverty nexus, which existent literature has completely neglected, in order to have relevant policy conclusions.
Research limitations/implications
The study used “Per capita consumption expenditure” as a measure for poverty due to lack of continuous time series data on headcount ratio. In future, researchers can extend this study by incorporating headcount ratio as a measure of poverty in their respective works. There is further scope of research on this issue by finding out the impact of formal and informal sources of credit on poverty separately. A panel data study for developing countries over a period of time could further confirm/negate the findings of the present study.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge none of the studies in Indian context has scrutinized asymmetric and nonlinear impact of financial development on poverty. To dredge up asymmetric structures at work, the authors have used the highly celebrated NARDL estimator. To enrich the existent body of knowledge along the lines of asymmetric (nonlinear) linkages, the authors have also used recently introduced asymmetric causality test by Hatemi-j-(2012) to find out the direction asymmetric causality.
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Jong Min Kim, Jiahao Liu and Keeyeon Ki-cheon Park
This study aims to explore how the “new normal” induces the dynamics in the asymmetric relationship between service quality attributes and customer satisfaction.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to explore how the “new normal” induces the dynamics in the asymmetric relationship between service quality attributes and customer satisfaction.
Design/methodology/approach
This study analyzes online reviews for hotels in New York City. The authors use multi-attribute models to examine how a situational factor – the COVID-19 outbreak – creates dynamics in the asymmetric effect of service quality attributes on customer satisfaction. Then, the authors examine the change in these dynamics over time after adjusting to the “new normal.”
Findings
The COVID-19 pandemic has introduced dynamics into the asymmetrical relationship between hotel service attribute performances and customer satisfaction. The pandemic magnified the asymmetric influences of particular attributes on satisfaction in the hospitality industry. In addition, the findings indicate the changes in such dynamics over time.
Practical implications
The findings emphasize that hotel managers should consider situational factors when understanding customer satisfaction. Particularly, this study suggests developing tailored strategies for responses during the COVID-19 pandemic. Hotel managers need to address changing customer expectations of service attributes to overcome unprecedented difficulties because of the limitations and new needs imposed during the pandemic.
Originality/value
This study contributes to the hospitality literature with an understanding of the significance of situational factors in asymmetric analysis.
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Bhagavatula Aruna and Rajesh H. Acharya
This paper aims to examine the asymmetric impact of the oil price increase and decrease on stock returns at the firm level.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine the asymmetric impact of the oil price increase and decrease on stock returns at the firm level.
Design/methodology/approach
To ascertain the impact oil price can exert on the stock price at the firm level, this study uses panel structural vector auto regression with various linear and nonlinear measures of oil price shock on a data set, containing 1,168 firms listed in Indian stock markets. This study also considers stock index returns, Fama-French factors and inflation as control variables.
Findings
This paper finds evidence that at firm level, net oil price increase and decrease have an asymmetric impact on stock returns. Other oil price shock measures, namely, shock because of oil price increase and decrease, do not show any sign of asymmetric impact on stock returns.
Originality/value
The comparison of firm-level return on its response towards oil price fluctuation can give valuable insights into a firm’s features.
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Fatima N. Ali Taher and Mohammad Al-Shboul
This paper examines the impact of dividend policy on stock market liquidity, and whether the dividend payouts has an asymmetric effect on stock liquidity.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper examines the impact of dividend policy on stock market liquidity, and whether the dividend payouts has an asymmetric effect on stock liquidity.
Design/methodology/approach
A multivariate panel-data regression analysis is conducted for a sample of the largest 411 nonfinancial US firms. Three main hypothesis are tested: (1) whether dividend payouts impact affect stock liquidity, (2) whether low and high dividend payments can asymmetrically effect on stock liquidity and (3) whether the presence of the GFC has an impact the relationship between dividend payments and stock liquidity.
Findings
The study finds that dividend policy is adversely associated with stock liquidity. This supports the prediction of the liquidity-dividend hypothesis. The authors also report that stock liquidity asymmetrically responds to changes in dividend payouts, confirming the prediction of the dividend-signaling approach. More specifically, higher dividend payments decrease stock liquidity by a lower magnitude than the increase in stock liquidity resulting from lower dividend payments. Finally, the presence of the GFC weakened the relationship between dividend payments and stock liquidity.
Research limitations/implications
The paper can help in performing future research by using different dataset covering the COVID-19 crisis.
Practical implications
The paper allows market participants to better understand the impact of dividend policy and its asymmetric effects on stock liquidity. The authors’ analyses can direct investors and regulators to adopt new supervisory devices to create an appropriate level of dividend payouts that helps to effectively support the level of stock liquidity.
Social implications
The paper intends to support the business community and to make strong contributions to the economic development and the welfare of the community.
Originality/value
The originality comes from its new evidence as it can help in assessing the importance of dividend policy and its asymmetric impact on stock liquidity in the full sample and during the GFC. The paper is helpful in performing future analyses using a new sample period for another set of data as well as accounting for COVID-19 pandemic crisis.
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Siti Nurhidayah Mohd Roslen, Mei-Shan Chua and Rafiatul Adlin Hj Mohd Ruslan
The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the asymmetric effects of financial risk on Sukuk market development for a sample of Malaysian countries over the period of…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the asymmetric effects of financial risk on Sukuk market development for a sample of Malaysian countries over the period of 2010–2021.
Design/methodology/approach
This study refers to the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) in determining the financial risk factors to be studied in addition to the Malaysia financial stress index (FSI) to capture changes in financial risk level. The authors use the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to tackle the nonlinear relationships between identified financial risk variables and Sukuk market development.
Findings
The results suggest the existence of a long-run relationship between foreign debt service stability, international liquidity stability (ILS), exchange rate stability (ERS) and financial stress level with the Sukuk market development in Malaysia. Indeed, higher ILS and ERS will boost Sukuk market size, whereas higher foreign debt services and financial stress are negatively related to Sukuk market development. Findings also indicate that the long-run positive and negative impacts of identified financial risk components on Sukuk market development are statistically different. Taking into account the role of the Sukuk market in facilitating Malaysia’s economic growth, the country should aim to keep the foreign debt-to-GDP ratio at a sustainable level.
Research limitations/implications
This study points to three possible directions for future research. The first is the differential impact of financial risk components on Sukuk issuance for different Sukuk structures. As more data becomes available in the future, this area could be further explored by conducting the above analysis for different combinations of Sukuk structures and currency denominations. In addition, future researchers could also consider exploring the variability of financial risk impacts through comparative studies of the leading Sukuk-issuing countries to account for differences in regulatory frameworks and supporting infrastructure.
Practical implications
This study provides valuable practical and policy implications for strengthening the growth of the Sukuk market. While benefiting from the diversification benefits of funding sources to finance private or government projects and developments, Malaysia should remain vigilant to global economic conditions, foreign exchange markets and financial stress levels, as all of these factors may significantly influence investor sentiment and the rate of return offered by Sukuk issuance.
Originality/value
The use of the NARDL approach, which investigates the long-run effects of financial risk factors on Sukuk market development in Malaysia, makes this study a valuable addition to the literature, as there has been little research into the asymmetric effects of those variables on Sukuk market development using samples from emerging Asian markets.
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Mamdouh Abdelmoula Mohamed Abdelsalam
This paper aims to explore the extreme effect of crude oil price fluctuations and its volatility on the economic growth of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. It also…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to explore the extreme effect of crude oil price fluctuations and its volatility on the economic growth of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. It also investigates the asymmetric and dynamic relationship between oil price and economic growth. Further, a separate analysis for each MENA oil-export and oil-import countries is conducted. Furthermore, it studies to what extent the quality of institutions will change the effect of oil price fluctuations on economic growth.
Design/methodology/approach
As the effect of oil price fluctuations is not the same over different business cycles or oil price levels, the paper uses a panel quantile regression approach with other linear models such as fixed effects, random effects and panel generalized method of moments. The panel quantile methodology is an extension of traditional linear models and it has the advantage of exploring the relationship over the different quantiles of the whole distribution.
Findings
The paper can summarize results as following: changes in oil price and its volatility have an opposite effect for each oil-export and oil-import countries; for the former, changes in oil prices have a positive impact but the volatility a negative effect. While for the latter, changes in oil prices have a negative effect but volatility a positive effect. Further, the impact of oil price changes and their uncertainty are different across different quantiles. Furthermore, there is evidence about the asymmetric effect of the oil price changes on economic growth. Finally, accounting for institutional quality led to a reduction in the impact of oil price changes on economic growth.
Originality/value
The study concludes more detailed results on the impact of oil prices on gross domestic product growth. Thus, it can be used as a decision-support tool for policymakers.
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Dorra Messaoud, Anis Ben Amar and Younes Boujelbene
Behavioral finance and market microstructure studies suggest that the investor sentiment and liquidity are related. This paper aims to examine the aggregate sentiment–liquidity…
Abstract
Purpose
Behavioral finance and market microstructure studies suggest that the investor sentiment and liquidity are related. This paper aims to examine the aggregate sentiment–liquidity relationship in emerging markets (EMs) for both the sample period and crisis period. Then, it verifies this relationship, using the asymmetric sentiment.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses a sample consisting of stocks listed on the SSE Shanghai composite index (348 stocks), the JKSE (118 stocks), the IPC (14 stocks), the RTS (12 stocks), the WSE (106 stocks) and FTSE/JSE Africa (76 stocks). This is for the period ranging from February, 2002 until March, 2021 (230 monthly observations). We use the panel data and apply generalized method-of-moments (GMM) of dynamic panel estimators.
Findings
The empirical analysis shows the following results: first, it demonstrates a significant relationship between the aggregate investor sentiment and the stock market liquidity for the sample period and crisis one. Second, referring to the asymmetric sentiment, we have empirically given proof that the market is significantly more liquid in times of the optimistic sentiment than it is in times of the pessimistic sentiment. Third, using panel causality tests, we document a unidirectional causality between the investor sentiment and liquidity in a direct manner through the noise traders and the irrational market makers and also a bidirectional causality in an indirect channel.
Practical implications
The results reported in this paper have implications for regulators and investors in EMs. Firstly, the study informs the regulators that the increases and decreases in the stock market liquidity are related to the investor sentiment, not financial shocks. We empirically evince that the traded value is higher in the crisis. Secondly, we inform insider traders and rational market makers that the persistence of increases in the trading activity in both quiet and turbulent times is associated with investor participants such as noise traders and irrational market makers.
Originality/value
The originality of this work lies in employing the asymmetric sentiment (optimistic/pessimistic) in order to denote the sentiment–liquidity relationship in EMs for the sample period and the 2007–2008 subprime crisis.
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Khushboo Aggarwal and Mithilesh Kumar Jha
The purpose of this paper is to examine the existence of the day-of-the-week effect in the Indian stock market.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the existence of the day-of-the-week effect in the Indian stock market.
Design/methodology/approach
Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) (1, 1), Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) (1, 1) and Threshold GARCH (TGARCH) (1, 1) models are employed to examine the day-of-the-week effect in the Indian stock market for the period of 28 years from 3rd July, 1990 to 31st March, 2022.
Findings
The empirical results derived from the GARCH models indicate the existence of day-of-the-week effects on stock returns and volatility of the Indian stock market. The study reveals that all the days of the week are positive and significant in National Stock Exchange (NSE)-Nifty market returns. The findings confirm the persistence of ARCH and GARCH effects in the daily return series. Moreover, the asymmetric GARCH models show that the daily stock returns exhibit significant asymmetric (leverage) effects.
Practical implications
The results of this study established that the Indian stock market is not efficient and there exists an opportunity to the traders for predicting the future prices and earning abnormal profits in the Indian stock market. The findings of the study are important for traders, investors and portfolio managers to earn abnormal returns by cross-border diversification.
Originality/value
First, to the best of the authors' knowledge, this paper is the first to study the day-of-the-week effect in Indian stock market considering the most recent and longer time period (1990–2022). Second, unlike previous research, this study used GARCH models (GARCH, EGARCH and TGARCH) to capture the volatility clustering in the data.
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