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1 – 10 of over 1000
Open Access
Article
Publication date: 13 May 2024

Lars Olbert

Surprisingly little is known of the various methods of security analysis used by financial analysts with industry-specific knowledge. Financial analysts’ industry knowledge is a…

Abstract

Purpose

Surprisingly little is known of the various methods of security analysis used by financial analysts with industry-specific knowledge. Financial analysts’ industry knowledge is a favored and appreciated attribute by fund managers and institutional investors. Understanding analysts’ use of industry-specific valuation models, which are the main value drivers within different industries, will enhance our understanding of important aspects of value creation in these industries. This paper contributes to the broader understanding of how financial analysts in various industries approach valuation, offering insights that can be beneficial to a wide range of stakeholders in the financial market.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper systematically reviews existing research to consolidate the current understanding of analysts’ use of valuation models and factors. It aims to demystify what can often be seen as a “black box”, shedding light on the valuation tools employed by financial analysts across diverse industries.

Findings

The use of industry-specific valuation models and factors by analysts is a subject of considerable interest to both academics and investors. The predominant model in several industries is P/E, with some exceptions. Notably, EV/EBITDA is favored in the telecom, energy and materials sectors, while the capital goods industry primarily relies on P/CF. In the REITs sector, P/AFFO is the most commonly employed model. In specific sectors like pharmaceuticals, energy and telecom, DCF is utilized. However, theoretical models like RIM and AEG find limited use among analysts.

Originality/value

This is the first paper systematically reviewing the research on analyst’s use of industry-specific stock valuation methods. It serves as a foundation for future research in this field and is likely to be of interest to academics, analysts, fund managers and investors.

Details

Journal of Accounting Literature, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0737-4607

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 9 May 2024

Magnus Jansson, Patrik Michaelsen, Doron Sonsino and Tommy Gärling

The paper aims to investigate differences in non-professional and professional stock investors’ trust in and tendency to follow financial analysts’ buy and sell recommendations.

Abstract

Purpose

The paper aims to investigate differences in non-professional and professional stock investors’ trust in and tendency to follow financial analysts’ buy and sell recommendations.

Design/methodology/approach

Online experiment conducted in Sweden in March 2022 comparing non-professional private investors (n = 80), professional investors (n = 33), and master students in finance (n = 28). Information was presented about four company stocks listed on the New York stock exchange. Two stocks were buy-recommended and two stocks sell-recommended by financial analysts. For one stock of each type, the recommendation was presented to participants. Dependent variables were predictions of the stock price after three months, ratings of confidence in the predictions and choices of holding, buying or selling the stock. Ratings were also made of the importance of presented stock-related information as well as trust in analysts’ skill and integrity.

Findings

More positive return predictions were made of buy-recommended than sell-recommended stocks. Non-professionals and to some degree finance students tended to trust financial analysts more than professional investors did and they were more influenced by the presentation of the buy recommendations. All groups made too optimistic return predictions, but the professionals were less confident in their predictions, more likely to sell the stocks and lost less on their investments.

Originality/value

A new finding is that non-professional stock investors are more likely than professional stock investors to trust financial analysts and follow their recommendations. It suggests that financial analysts’ recommendations influence non-professional investors to take unmotivated investment risks. Non-professionals in the stock market should hence be advised to exercise more caution in following analysts’ recommendations.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 16 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 18 July 2023

Nishant Agarwal and Amna Chalwati

The authors examine the role of analysts’ prior experience of forecasting for firms exposed to epidemics on analysts’ forecast accuracy during the COVID-19 pandemic.

1007

Abstract

Purpose

The authors examine the role of analysts’ prior experience of forecasting for firms exposed to epidemics on analysts’ forecast accuracy during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors examine the impact of analysts’ prior epidemic experience on forecast accuracy by comparing the changes from the pre-COVID-19 period (calendar year 2019) to the post-COVID period extending up to March 2023 across HRE versus non-HRE analysts. The authors consider a full sample (194,980) and a sub-sample (136,836) approach to distinguish “Recent” forecasts from “All” forecasts (including revisions).

Findings

The study's findings reveal that forecast accuracy for HRE analysts is significantly higher than that for non-HRE analysts during COVID-19. Specifically, forecast errors significantly decrease by 0.6% and 0.15% for the “Recent” and “All” forecast samples, respectively. This finding suggests that analysts’ prior epidemic experience leads to an enhanced ability to assess the uncertainty around the epidemic, thereby translating to higher forecast accuracy.

Research limitations/implications

The finding that the expertise developed through an experience of following high-risk firms in the past enhances analysts’ performance during the pandemic sheds light on a key differentiator that partially explains the systematic difference in performance across analysts. The authors also show that industry experience alone is not useful in improving forecast accuracy during a pandemic – prior experience of tracking firms during epidemics adds incremental accuracy to analysts’ forecasts during pandemics such as COVID-19.

Practical implications

The study findings should prompt macroeconomic policymakers at the national level, such as the central banks of countries, to include past epidemic experiences as a key determinant when forecasting the economic outlook and making policy-related decisions. Moreover, practitioners and advisory firms can improve the earning prediction models by placing more weight on pandemic-adjusted forecasts made by analysts with past epidemic experience.

Originality/value

The uncertainty induced by the COVID-19 pandemic increases uncertainty in global financial markets. Under such circumstances, the importance of analysts’ role as information intermediaries gains even more importance. This raises the question of what determines analysts’ forecast accuracy during the COVID-19 pandemic. Building upon prior literature on the role of analyst experience in shaping analysts’ forecasts, the authors examine whether experience in tracking firms exposed to prior epidemics allows analysts to forecast more accurately during COVID-19. The authors find that analysts who have experience in forecasting for firms with high exposure to epidemics (H1N1, Zika, Ebola, and SARS) exhibit higher accuracy than analysts who lack such experience. Further, this effect of experience on forecast accuracy is more pronounced while forecasting for firms with higher exposure to the risk of COVID-19 and for firms with a poor ex-ante informational environment.

Details

China Accounting and Finance Review, vol. 25 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1029-807X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 3 April 2023

Kateryna Kubrak, Fredrik Milani and Alexander Nolte

When improving business processes, process analysts can use data-driven methods, such as process mining, to identify improvement opportunities. However, despite being supported by…

2567

Abstract

Purpose

When improving business processes, process analysts can use data-driven methods, such as process mining, to identify improvement opportunities. However, despite being supported by data, process analysts decide which changes to implement. Analysts often use process visualisations to assess and determine which changes to pursue. This paper helps explore how process mining visualisations can aid process analysts in their work to identify, prioritise and communicate business process improvement opportunities.

Design/methodology/approach

The study follows the design science methodology to create and evaluate an artefact for visualising identified improvement opportunities (IRVIN).

Findings

A set of principles to facilitate the visualisation of process mining outputs for analysts to work with improvement opportunities was suggested. Particularly, insights into identifying, prioritising and communicating process improvement opportunities from visual representation are outlined.

Originality/value

Prior work focuses on visualisation from the perspectives – among others – of process exploration, process comparison and performance analysis. This study, however, considers process mining visualisation that aids in analysing process improvement opportunities.

Details

Business Process Management Journal, vol. 29 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-7154

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 17 March 2023

Cheol-Won Yang

The recommendation of the analyst report is not only limited to a small number of ratings, but also biased toward a buy opinion with the absence of sell opinion. As an alternative…

Abstract

The recommendation of the analyst report is not only limited to a small number of ratings, but also biased toward a buy opinion with the absence of sell opinion. As an alternative to this, this paper aims to extract analysts' textual opinions embedded in the report body through text analysis and examine the profitability of investment strategies. Analyst opinion about a firm is measured by calculating the frequency of positive and negative words in the report text through the Korean sentiment lexicon for finance (KOSELF). To verify the usefulness of textual opinions, the author constructs a calendar-time based portfolios by the analysts' textual opinion variable of each stock. When opinion level is used, investment strategy has no significant hedged portfolio return. However, hedged portfolio constructed by opinion change shows significant return of 0.117% per day (2.57% per month). In addition, the hedged return increases to 0.163% per day (3.59% per month) when the opening price is used instead of closing price. This study show that the analysts’ opinion extracted from text analysis contains more detailed spectrum than recommendation and investment strategies using them give significant returns.

Details

Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies: 선물연구, vol. 31 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1229-988X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 6 January 2022

Sara Bonesso, Fabrizio Gerli and Elena Bruni

Analytics technologies are profoundly changing the way in which organizations generate economic and social value from data. Consequently, the professional roles of data scientists…

4008

Abstract

Purpose

Analytics technologies are profoundly changing the way in which organizations generate economic and social value from data. Consequently, the professional roles of data scientists and data analysts are in high demand in the labor market. Although the technical competencies expected for these roles are well known, their behavioral competencies have not been thoroughly investigated. Drawing on the competency-based theoretical framework, this study aims to address this gap, providing evidence of the emotional, social and cognitive competencies that data scientists and data analysts most frequently demonstrate when they effectively perform their jobs, and identifying those competencies that distinguish them.

Design/methodology/approach

This study is exploratory in nature and adopts the competency-based methodology through the analysis of in-depth behavioral event interviews collected from a sample of 24 Italian data scientists and data analysts.

Findings

The findings empirically enrich the extant literature on the intangible dimensions of human capital that are relevant in analytics roles. Specifically, the results show that, in comparison to data analysts, data scientists more frequently use certain competencies related to self-awareness, teamwork, networking, flexibility, system thinking and lateral thinking.

Research limitations/implications

The study was conducted in a small sample and in a specific geographical area, and this may reduce the analytic generalizability of the findings.

Practical implications

The skills shortages that characterize these roles need to be addressed in a way that also considers the intangible dimensions of human capital. Educational institutions can design better curricula for entry-level data scientists and analysts who encompass the development of behavioral competencies. Organizations can effectively orient the recruitment and the training processes toward the most relevant competencies for those analytics roles.

Originality/value

This exploratory study advances our understanding of the competencies required by professionals who mostly contribute to the performance of data science teams. This article proposes a competency framework that can be adopted to assess a broader portfolio of the behaviors of big data professionals.

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 3 August 2022

Guqiang Luo, Kun Tracy Wang and Yue Wu

Using a sample of 9,898 firm-year observations from 1,821 unique Chinese listed firms over the period from 2004 to 2019, this study aims to investigate whether the market rewards…

1338

Abstract

Purpose

Using a sample of 9,898 firm-year observations from 1,821 unique Chinese listed firms over the period from 2004 to 2019, this study aims to investigate whether the market rewards meeting or beating analyst earnings expectations (MBE).

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use an event study methodology to capture market reactions to MBE.

Findings

The authors document a stock return premium for beating analyst forecasts by a wide margin. However, there is no stock return premium for firms that meet or just beat analyst forecasts, suggesting that the market is skeptical of earnings management by these firms. This market underreaction is more pronounced for firms with weak external monitoring. Further analysis shows that meeting or just beating analyst forecasts is indicative of superior future financial performance. The authors do not find firms using earnings management to meet or just beat analyst forecasts.

Research limitations/implications

The authors provide evidence of market underreaction to meeting or just beating analyst forecasts, with the market's over-skepticism of earnings management being a plausible mechanism for this phenomenon.

Practical implications

The findings of this study are informative to researchers, market participants and regulators concerned about the impact of analysts and earnings management and interested in detecting and constraining managers' earnings management.

Originality/value

The authors provide new insights into how the market reacts to MBE by showing that the market appears to focus on using meeting or just beating analyst forecasts as an indicator of earnings management, while it does not detect managed MBE. Meeting or just beating analyst forecasts is commonly used as a proxy for earnings management in the literature. However, the findings suggest that it is a noisy proxy for earnings management.

Details

China Accounting and Finance Review, vol. 25 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1029-807X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 27 September 2021

Francesca Rossignoli, Riccardo Stacchezzini and Alessandro Lai

European countries are likely to increasingly adopt integrated reporting (IR) voluntarily, after the 2014/95/EU Directive is revised and other initiatives are implemented…

2425

Abstract

Purpose

European countries are likely to increasingly adopt integrated reporting (IR) voluntarily, after the 2014/95/EU Directive is revised and other initiatives are implemented. Therefore, the present study provides insights on the relevance of IR in voluntary contexts by exploring analysts' reactions to the release of integrated reports in diverse institutional settings.

Design/methodology/approach

Drawing on voluntary disclosure theory, a quantitative empirical research method is used to explore the moderating role of country-level institutional characteristics on the associations between voluntary IR release and analyst forecast accuracy and dispersion.

Findings

IR informativeness is not uniform in the voluntary context and institutional settings play a moderating role. IR release is associated with increased consensus among analyst forecasts. However, in countries with weak institutional enforcement, a reverse association is detected, indicating that analysts rely largely on IR where the institutional setting strongly protects investors. Although a strong institutional setting boosts the IR release usefulness in terms of accuracy, it creates noise in analyst consensus.

Research limitations/implications

Academics can appreciate the usefulness of voluntary IR across the institutional enforcement contexts.

Practical implications

Managers can use these findings to understand opportunities offered by IR voluntary release. The study recommends that policymakers, standard setters and regulators strengthen the institutional enforcement of sustainability disclosure.

Originality/value

This study is a unique contribution to recent calls for research on the effects of nonfinancial disclosure regulation and on IR “impacts”. It shows on the international scale that IR usefulness for analysts is moderated by institutional patterns, not country-level institutional characteristics.

Details

Journal of Applied Accounting Research, vol. 23 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0967-5426

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 16 September 2022

Shuoyuan He

This study examines the relation between the presence of analysts’ long-term growth (LTG) forecasts and the post-earnings-announcement drift (PEAD).

2975

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the relation between the presence of analysts’ long-term growth (LTG) forecasts and the post-earnings-announcement drift (PEAD).

Design/methodology/approach

Using a sample of firm-quarters from 1995 to 2013, the author conducts various regression analyses.

Findings

The author finds that the magnitude of PEAD is significantly smaller for firms with LTG forecasts. The relationship holds after controlling for a wide range of explanatory variables for PEAD returns or for the presence of LTG forecasts. The author further investigates three nonexclusive hypotheses to explain this relationship. First, LTG forecasts may convey incremental value-relevant information that facilitates investors’ processing of short-term earnings information. Second, the presence of LTG forecasts may indicate superiority in analysts’ short-term forecast ability and identify firms with more efficient short-term forecasts. Third, the presence of LTG forecasts may be associated with cross-sectional differences in the persistence of earnings surprises. The author finds that none of these fully accounts for the negative relationship between the presence of LTG forecasts and PEAD returns. Instead, the relationship may be a result of the presence of LTG forecasts capturing some unobservable firm characteristics beyond those identified in prior studies.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the PEAD literature by identifying a novel analyst-based predictor of the cross-sectional variation in PEAD returns.

Details

China Accounting and Finance Review, vol. 25 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1029-807X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 2 October 2019

Zhixin Kang

The purpose of this paper is to test whether financial analysts’ rationality in making stocks’ earnings forecasts is homogenous or not across different information regimes in…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to test whether financial analysts’ rationality in making stocks’ earnings forecasts is homogenous or not across different information regimes in stocks’ past returns.

Design/methodology/approach

By treating stocks’ past returns as the information variable in this study, the authors employ a threshold regression model to capture and test threshold effects of stocks’ past returns on financial analysts’ rationality in making earnings forecasts in different information regimes.

Findings

The results show that three significant structural breaks and four respective information regimes are identified in stocks’ past returns in the threshold regression model. Across the four different information regimes, financial analysts react to stocks’ past returns quite differently when making one-quarter ahead earnings forecasts. Furthermore, the authors find that financial analysts are only rational in a certain information regime of stocks’ past returns depending on a certain return-window such as one-quarter, two-quarter or four-quarter time period.

Originality/value

This study is different from those in the existing literature by arguing that there could exist heterogeneity in financial analysts’ rationality in making earnings forecasts when using stocks’ past returns information. The finding that financial analysts react to stocks’ past returns differently in the different information regimes of past returns adds value to the research on financial analysts’ rationality.

Details

Journal of Capital Markets Studies, vol. 3 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-4774

Keywords

1 – 10 of over 1000