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COVID-19 pandemic has significantly influenced human society; statistics have shown many countries ended 2020 with minimal or even negative economic growth. This pandemic proved that development biased to economic issues without considering other factors such as social and environmental is not sustainable, and it can even be the source of the crisis. This paper aims to discover plausible alternative futures at the macrolevel where nations, businesses and societies can change routines, and approach to a better peaceful future.

To accomplish this, trends emerged after the COVID-19 pandemic are studied and some uncertainties are identified. At the intersections of uncertainties, scenarios are shaped based on the Global Business Network (GBN) methodology. GBN helps to draw macrolevel images about plausible futures. The main uncertainties rose from three different but interconnected natures including: approach to the globalization (social perspective), approach to the concept of value (business perspective) and approach to the governance (states/governance perspective). Each uncertainty can take two extreme alternatives; consequently, eight scenario spaces with different probability are formed by the intersection of alternatives. Then the most favorable scenario is introduced and strategies are proposed to achieve a better future.

In the current paradigm in which countries will sacrifice the environment for economic growth in the race to rapidly rebuild their economy, concerns for the post-COVID-19 will continue to mount. While, in the favorable scenario, value creation is sought in sustainable development. This means deviation from a favorable scenario to achieve short-term goals is completely predictable. Although we have learned that the COVID-19 pandemic is controllable and manageable as time goes by, but no effort or commitment has been seen in the governments to eradicate the COVID-19 sources (at least till today).

The main originality of this research appeared in the practical aspect. This paper analyzes and projects scenarios at the global level and studies challenges that societies, governments and businesses are facing in the modern world with biased development paradigms. Moreover, different viewpoints to deal with global crisis are assessed and criticized.

The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario development (SD) as a method for engaging known challenges in collaborative research projects, i.e. SD is the construct under investigation.

Criticism of the dominant, rational approach to project management (PM) and its underlying hypotheses highlights a considerable PM research gap for research projects (research problem). The authors undertake a six-step constructive research approach to investigate if SD (the construct) constitutes a fruitful method to support the management of collaborative research projects. A two-part literature review summarizes known challenges in collaborative research projects and introduces the history and application of SD methodology. The work includes participatory action research (PAR) in two case studies, constituting a qualitative research method.

The authors found the SD method to be useful for structuring and analyzing intuitive project processes. However, using SD in the management of single projects presents some fundamental challenges. SD, like PM, struggles with issues related to myopic decisions, a “predict and provide” attitude with clear aspects of path dependency in the project front-end as well as inconsistent and/or missing identification of success criteria among different stakeholders.

This paper does not provide any comprehensive, normative account of scenario techniques or compare SD with other foresight and future studies methods. Although PAR is in itself a research method that demands systematic description and execution, the focus of this paper is the overall constructive research approach.

The paper offers a broadened repertoire of methods to describe and analyse project stakeholder situations (collaborative aspects) and to structure and balance the need for both rational and intuitive project processes (research aspects). The SD method also supports development of graphical storylines and facilitates the use of influence diagrams, event trees and cost/benefit analysis.

Although PM literature contains several references to SD, the practical application of SD at single-project level has, to the authors’ knowledge, never been described in the PM literature.

This paper aims to explore and demonstrate how the meme of aspiration can help guide human cultures through an epochal transformation triggered by a global megacrisis and leading to sustainable maturation of human cultures.

Aspirational futures process, intuition-based visioning and “Type II” thinking that has high credibility for knowledgeable experts but low credibility to most others.

Megacrisis is a Type II wild card needing anticipatory mitigation via strategies such as are suggested. While descent paths may be a suitable meme for technical professionals, ascent paths to higher levels of civilizational maturity are a better guiding image for the public. Aspirational methods whose core involves intuition-based creativity, wisdom and co-creative emergence are a vital complement to rational/analytic futures methods, especially in times of epochal change and uncertainty when a new “regime” of guiding world views, institutional processes and innovative technologies may emerge.

Results represent a high degree of uncertainly as well as “fringe” thinking needing to be more widely considered.

Strategic suggestions based on Type II thinking are a unique category for “leading edge” funding and application.

The Type II perspective offered here is unique and offers a promising approach for transformative megacrisis mitigation.

This paper seeks to discuss the process and results of a scenario exercise applied to the Portuguese tourism and hospitality industries with a 2020 horizon.

Through an intuitive‐logical process adapted to the specific purposes of the research, four alternative scenarios of the evolution of the industry were developed. The exercise involved three workshops, with the participation of a group of experts, academics, representatives from industry and local government.

Based on the nature and dynamics of the key forces and trends, the four scenarios identified are: southern experience; global emotions; “sin surprise”; and non‐charming Portugal. In all scenarios there is increased global competition amongst tourist destinations. A desire for authenticity opens the opportunity for Portugal as a tourist destination but it also poses challenges for managers and policy makers. These scenarios are of practical use for managers, policy makers and other practitioners as they provide a framework for the development and assessment of robust strategies and policies, i.e. strategies that will survive several kinds of external development.

The paper contributes to the knowledge of scenario methods in practice and to help policy planners and managers recognize, consider and reflect on uncertainties they are likely to face. The work is also valuable for the international foresight community by discussing the method and addressing some drawbacks of the scenario exercise and recommendations for practice.

Possible limitations on the successful formal modeling of human expertise can only be identified if the evolving thought processes involved in acquiring expertise are understood. This paper presents a 5‐stage description of the human skill‐acquisition process, applies it to the skill of business management, and draws conclusions about potential uses and abuses of formal modeling.

The case study uses a strategic foresight method, scenario-planning, to examine the strategic options for a financial services firm. As such, it covers the fields of strategy, environment of business, innovation, digital disruption and organizational change as they relate to the firm’s ability to adapt to changes in the environment of business in an emerging market context.

The case was developed with master's-level students in mind, particularly those seeking a master of business administration, masters in strategic foresight or related management degrees.

The case of NEDBANK, a longstanding and successful financial services firm based in South Africa is confronted with major challenges from competitors because of technological change in the industry as well as having to expand their market penetration across Africa. A rising regulatory burden, tough economic conditions and the need to access low income markets, provide a significant organizational development challenge as a decades-old bank, known for a relational approach to banking, has to navigate the new domains of “fintech”, micro-lending and public sector banking.

Students will gain comprehensive insight into the industry environment in emerging markets, understand the strategic management challenge before financial services firms in this environment and be able to consider the alternative strategic interventions that may be used to ensure corporate sustainability amid these challenges. Simultaneously, the case provides a comprehensive view into the use and application of scenario-planning for strategic management.

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CSS: 11: Strategy

Contemporary policing and the control of (organised) crime involve priority setting, strategic planning and the use of strategic planning tools. The purpose of this paper is to make a contribution to the fast‐growing body of literature on intelligence‐led policing, and explore new concepts and methods to aid the strategic decision making of actors involved in policing organised crime.

This paper argues that priority setting and strategic planning in the field of organised crime is inherently characterised by uncertainty. The authors examine to what extent policymakers can plan and anticipate coming organised crime threats. It is argued that, while predicting such issues is impossible, policymakers can prepare for them. It is suggested that the field of scenario studies can provide tools that can support strategic planning and the assessment of security challenges in the field of organised crime control. A scenario study is presented on the vulnerability of economic sectors to illustrate and develop this claim.

Scenario studies do not predict the future of organised crime, nor do they replace information‐gathering methodologies and crime intelligence applications that support concrete criminal investigations. Scenario studies are sensitising tools that force strategic planners to examine the assumptions and knowledge base on which they base their decisions. To that end, scenario studies combine the analysis of law enforcement data and scientific analysis of organised crime with analysis of issues most vital to societies, regions, cities, etc. The analytical focus shifts from targeting concrete offenders to detecting opportunities and weaknesses in structural processes that may not always be visible to police organizations, but pose significant security risks if left unattended. The scenario study that is presented on the vulnerability of economic sectors in the EU illustrates that scenario studies can amend traditional crime intelligence in this manner.

The paper is limited to a conceptual study and a concrete scenario study. Future research might shed more light on implementation/evaluation issues of scenario‐based planning.

The paper offers a conceptual and methodological framework for scenario‐based strategic planning.

The paper intends to advance the debate on organized crime assessments in light of the development towards intelligence‐led policing strategies. To that end, new concepts and a different methodological framework are suggested.

The purpose of this paper is twofold: to introduce scholars and practitioners of foresight to the emerging Canadian foresight ecosystem, and to provide lessons learned on developing policy foresight from the Government of Canada context.

The paper provides a series of lessons based in part on informal and indirect observations and engagement with established Canadian foresight entities, including Policy Horizons Canada, and numerous newly established foresight initiatives at Global Affairs Canada, Standards Council of Canada and the Canadian Forest Service.

The paper finds that Canada’s newly emerging foresight units and initiatives face structural, institutional and organizational challenges to their long-term success, including in concretely measuring foresight outcome (rather than simply output) in policy making.

The paper provides a unique and empirically driven perspective of the foresight ecosystem that has emerged within the Canadian federal public service since 2015. Lessons are culled from this emerging network of Canadian foresight practitioners for international application.