Scenarios and possible futures for hospitality and tourism

Celeste Amorim Varum (Based in the Department of Economics, Management and Industrial Engineering GOVCOPP, University of Aveiro, Aveiro Portugal)
Carla Melo (Based in the Department of Economics, Management and Industrial Engineering GOVCOPP, University of Aveiro, Aveiro Portugal)
António Alvarenga (Based in the Departamento de Prospectiva e Planeamento, Av. D. Carlos I, Lisboa, Portugal)
Paulo Soeiro de Carvalho (Based in the Departamento de Prospectiva e Planeamento, Av. D. Carlos I, Lisboa, Portugal)

Foresight

ISSN: 1463-6689

Publication date: 22 February 2011

Abstract

Purpose

This paper seeks to discuss the process and results of a scenario exercise applied to the Portuguese tourism and hospitality industries with a 2020 horizon.

Design/methodology/approach

Through an intuitive‐logical process adapted to the specific purposes of the research, four alternative scenarios of the evolution of the industry were developed. The exercise involved three workshops, with the participation of a group of experts, academics, representatives from industry and local government.

Findings

Based on the nature and dynamics of the key forces and trends, the four scenarios identified are: southern experience; global emotions; “sin surprise”; and non‐charming Portugal. In all scenarios there is increased global competition amongst tourist destinations. A desire for authenticity opens the opportunity for Portugal as a tourist destination but it also poses challenges for managers and policy makers. These scenarios are of practical use for managers, policy makers and other practitioners as they provide a framework for the development and assessment of robust strategies and policies, i.e. strategies that will survive several kinds of external development.

Originality/value

The paper contributes to the knowledge of scenario methods in practice and to help policy planners and managers recognize, consider and reflect on uncertainties they are likely to face. The work is also valuable for the international foresight community by discussing the method and addressing some drawbacks of the scenario exercise and recommendations for practice.

Keywords

Citation

Amorim Varum, C., Melo, C., Alvarenga, A. and Soeiro de Carvalho, P. (2011), "Scenarios and possible futures for hospitality and tourism", Foresight, Vol. 13 No. 1, pp. 19-35. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636681111109679

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Publisher

:

Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2011, Emerald Group Publishing Limited

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