Emerald logo
Advanced search

Scenarios and possible futures for hospitality and tourism

Celeste Amorim Varum (Based in the Department of Economics, Management and Industrial Engineering GOVCOPP, University of Aveiro, Aveiro Portugal)
Carla Melo (Based in the Department of Economics, Management and Industrial Engineering GOVCOPP, University of Aveiro, Aveiro Portugal)
António Alvarenga (Based in the Departamento de Prospectiva e Planeamento, Av. D. Carlos I, Lisboa, Portugal)
Paulo Soeiro de Carvalho (Based in the Departamento de Prospectiva e Planeamento, Av. D. Carlos I, Lisboa, Portugal)

Foresight

ISSN: 1463-6689

Publication date: 22 February 2011

Abstract

Purpose

–

This paper seeks to discuss the process and results of a scenario exercise applied to the Portuguese tourism and hospitality industries with a 2020 horizon.

Design/methodology/approach

–

Through an intuitive‐logical process adapted to the specific purposes of the research, four alternative scenarios of the evolution of the industry were developed. The exercise involved three workshops, with the participation of a group of experts, academics, representatives from industry and local government.

Findings

–

Based on the nature and dynamics of the key forces and trends, the four scenarios identified are: southern experience; global emotions; “sin surprise”; and non‐charming Portugal. In all scenarios there is increased global competition amongst tourist destinations. A desire for authenticity opens the opportunity for Portugal as a tourist destination but it also poses challenges for managers and policy makers. These scenarios are of practical use for managers, policy makers and other practitioners as they provide a framework for the development and assessment of robust strategies and policies, i.e. strategies that will survive several kinds of external development.

Originality/value

–

The paper contributes to the knowledge of scenario methods in practice and to help policy planners and managers recognize, consider and reflect on uncertainties they are likely to face. The work is also valuable for the international foresight community by discussing the method and addressing some drawbacks of the scenario exercise and recommendations for practice.

Keywords

  • Futures markets
  • Tourism management
  • Hospitality management
  • Portugal

Citation

Amorim Varum, C., Melo, C., Alvarenga, A. and Soeiro de Carvalho, P. (2011), "Scenarios and possible futures for hospitality and tourism", Foresight, Vol. 13 No. 1, pp. 19-35. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636681111109679

Download as .RIS

Publisher

:

Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2011, Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Please note you might not have access to this content

You may be able to access this content by login via Shibboleth, Open Athens or with your Emerald account.
Login
To rent this content from Deepdyve, please click the button.
Rent from Deepdyve
If you would like to contact us about accessing this content, click the button and fill out the form.
Contact us
Emerald Publishing
  • Opens in new window
  • Opens in new window
  • Opens in new window
  • Opens in new window
© 2019 Emerald Publishing Limited

Services

  • Authors Opens in new window
  • Editors Opens in new window
  • Librarians Opens in new window
  • Researchers Opens in new window
  • Reviewers Opens in new window

About

  • About Emerald Opens in new window
  • Working for Emerald Opens in new window
  • Contact us Opens in new window
  • Publication Sitemap

Policies and information

  • Legal Opens in new window
  • Editorial policy Opens in new window & originality guidelines Opens in new window
  • Site policies
  • Modern Slavery Act Opens in new window

We’re listening — tell us what you think

  • Something didn’t work…

    Report bugs here

  • All feedback is valuable

    Please share your general feedback

  • Member of Emerald’s Library Advisory Network?

    You can start or join in a discussion here.
    If you’d like to know more about The Network, please email us

Join us on our journey

  • Platform update page

    Visit emeraldpublishing.com/platformupdate to discover the latest news and updates

  • Frequently Asked Questions

    Your questions answered here