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1. Probabilistic calculations of cost, and profit/loss using standard probability functions

2. Decision tree to find the expected monetary value (EMV) of different options.

3. Monte Carlo simulation for risk analysis.

4. Risk analysis in project management.

Learners will be able to understand and apply the following: how to approach uncertainty in business decisions using probabilistic calculations of cost, and profit/loss using standard probability functions; how to address uncertainty in business decisions by looking forward and reasoning backward, using the decision tree technique and the EMV of different decisions; how to analyse the risk inherent in business decisions by incorporating probability distributions for all critical variables in the form of Monte Carlo simulation; and appreciation of strategic considerations in risk analysis as it applies to project management

The case describes the challenge facing Vilas Birari, the owner and chief executive of Harsh Constructions, a construction company headquartered in Nasik, India. Birari had to decide on the bid for a construction project in September of 2021, during the COVID-19 (COVID) pandemic. Due to successive waves of the pandemic, the state and federal governments announced lockdowns intermittently, causing uncertainty in costs related to labor, material and project completion. The dilemma before Birari was how to set a bid price that was not so low as to incur a loss and not so high as to lose the bid to competitors. The uncertainty made Birari’s decision-making complex. The case invites students to help Birari find an optimum bid price by using various quantitative techniques, such as Monte Carlo simulation and decision trees.

This case is intended for students of management at a master’s level, in an elective course on management science, which is often also known as decision science. This compact case can be positioned in the second half of the course, when exploring risk management using computer simulation as a tool. The case serves both as an introduction to using simulation to manage uncertainty as well a contrast with simpler methods that are covered earlier in the course.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 7: Management Science.

Spiegel Online (www.spiegel.de) is the leading news Web site in Germany. The site was first designed to accompany Der Spiegel, one of Europe's largest and Germany's most influential weekly magazine, which has a weekly circulation of around one million. The site's content is produced by a team of more than fifty journalists writing in several categories: politics, business, networld, panorama, arts and entertainment, science, university, school, sports, travel, weather, and automobiles. The original content is complemented by articles purchased from news agencies and selected articles from the print edition. Spiegel-Verlag is a major contributor to the Hamburg Media School, which offers professional master's degree programs in Media Management (MBA), film, and journalism. In their second year, MBA students typically engage in consulting projects with major media companies. In a recent assignment, Spiegel Online posed two questions to the MBA team: are there any chances for an economically successful entry into the market for interactive classifieds? And if so, what should the business model look like in detail? A student team analyzed markets for classified ads and found one market segment that appeared to be particularly promising: the market for art objects. During the development of a business plan for a new venture in this market it became apparent that there is much uncertainty about the key input parameters to the business plan. As a result, it is very difficult to assess the viability of the business idea. How can the team properly account for the uncertain input parameters? What is the impact of this uncertainty on the bottom line? Will a Web site for art objects earn or lose money? How can the team communicate this uncertainty to a group of high-level decision makers who want a simple “go or no-go” recommendation?

The objective is to make students aware of the applicability of Monte Carlo simulation to the analysis of complex business plans. Students should learn how to explicitly account for uncertain inputs in a business plan, how to assess the impact of uncertainty on the bottom line via Monte Carlo simulation, and how to communicate the results of their analysis to high-level decision makers.

The case depicts an opportunity for students to be exposed to the decision theory concept. The study aims to encourage them to use the data given in the case and exhibits to explore as follows: decision-making under uncertainty; decision-making under risk; compare and contrast uncertainty and risk; and evaluate the value of perfect information EVPI and understand its application in decision-making.

Vikas Teerth, a budding entrepreneur, wanted to venture out into the pineapple business. He had three land plots available, but he would like to take up a single plot after analyzing the possible returns factoring the volatile prices and other impending constraints. He wanted to use the decision-making approaches with the aid of probability to arrive at the best decision. This case helps the instructors to introduce the concept of decision-making under risk and under uncertainty which comes under the preview of decision theory. Students can use the data given in the case and exhibits to do the necessary calculations required and thereby get an insight into the process of calculated decision-making.

This case can teach decision theory in undergraduate-level and graduate-level courses in operations research, decision-making and industrial engineering. It can also be used to discuss issues and challenges faced in start-ups or SME entrepreneurship.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 7: Management Science.

There are two theoretical concepts that can be taught in this case.The new approach to teaching entrepreneurship is termed “lean start-up” and “hypothesis-driven entrepreneurship.” The business model canvas is a core tool of this approach. This framework defines nine key components of a successful business strategy. These components include defining value propositions; identifying customer segments; identifying channels; maintaining customer relationships; defining key activities, key resources and key partners; understanding the revenue model of the business; and the organization’s cost structure. This is considered to be a rigorous approach to learning about and developing a new venture.The other theoretical approach that can be discussed through this case is the link between uncertainty and entrepreneurial growth. These theories associate the willingness of entrepreneurs to bear the perceived uncertainty associated with entrepreneurial acts as representative of the belief-desire model. There is a need for entrepreneurs to experiment and search for alternative paths forward in order to counter this uncertainty. Systematic search processes to discover relevant information will strengthen this process.

This case is based on primary data collected through interviews with company personnel. The company consented freely to the use of their data in the case. The authors have no connection with the company. The four student coauthors had previously pursued an internship with the company and had worked on the machine learning analysis part.The two faculty coauthors in the case contacted the company after the internship and discussed the opportunity to write the case on the company. One of the faculty then interviewed key personnel in the company, including one of the co-founders.

Xoxoday is a technology company that provides employee rewards and corporate gifting to its customers. The company was started by Sumit Khandelwal, Manoj Agarwal, Abhishek Kumar and Kushal Agarwal. In 2018, the company reinvented itself as an experiential gifting company.The company faced some challenges during the lockdowns imposed due to COVID-19. Khandelwal knew that they had to try something new to achieve higher growth in the future. He wondered if higher usage of technology was the solution. It was necessary for them to carve a new path in these times.

This case study can be used at the undergraduate level in courses relating to entrepreneurship strategy and business models for entrepreneurs.The case can be used to highlight the dilemmas faced by entrepreneurs due to unforeseen crises. This case is relevant for classes that will discuss growth crises and out-of-the-box solutions for unprecedented crisis situations.

In October, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co., is preparing for the company's 2010 Q3 earnings conference call and wondering how to address the inevitable questions related to financial reform. It has been just over two months since the Dodd-Frank Financial Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Dodd-Frank Act) had been passed, and there was still much uncertainty as to how JPMorgan should address the reforms. JPMorgan had reported stronger than expected EPS in the third quarter, but analysts were more concerned about what strategic initiatives the CEO would implement in response to the Dodd-Frank Act. The act had introduced wide-ranging and industry-changing reforms that were aimed primarily at fully integrated financial institutions such as JPMorgan. While most of the rulemaking would be forthcoming from regulatory authorities, the CEO knew it would be best to address these issues immediately to protect shareholders by avoiding uncertainty.

Organizational behavior, human resources, culture, international business, international entrepreneurship and emerging market studies.

MBA and MSc students (and some advanced-level undergraduates) in an MBA module being taught face-to-face in an emerging market context. MBA courses such as managing cultural diversity, cross-cultural management, organizational behavior, human resource management, international business and business in emerging markets. The exercise is also relevant to teaching the subject of assignment- and dissertation-writing, given the element of data collection and analysis.

This exercise is designed to be an MBA class exercise in which students try to answer the question: what are the national cultural characteristics of the typical executive or manager in my country? Are these behaviors as the textbooks describe, or have they changed, especially with economic development?

The example of country chosen for the class exercise can be any emerging market country, especially one undergoing significant change. Much of the research on cross-cultural management conducted in emerging markets was carried out 20 or 30 years ago and the changes in emerging markets have been dramatic since then. It is highly likely, when reaching the results of this exercise, that the culture of the chosen country has indeed changed dramatically, becoming more like a typical developed or “emerged” country. Much of the original cross-cultural management research was also based on a similar group – employees of US-based high technology companies, arguably similar to the sample to be involved in our exercise here.

National cultural characteristics can be described and defined in ways which will allow for comparisons, to gain useful insights – and these behaviors are not good or bad, just real and different.

Cultures can change or stay the same, due to certain demographic, economic and social influences, which we can study and measure.

If we proactively interview colleagues and other contacts to test our understanding of these national culture constructs, we can gain more insights and awareness (rather than just listening to a lecture).

Teaching notes, student assignment.

Learning outcomes are as follows: Students will be able to demonstrate the need to understand the uncertainty faced in a crisis; demonstrate how dynamic capabilities allow an organisation to respond effectively in a time of crisis and deep uncertainty; explore how strong dynamic capabilities are required to maintain continuity of operations by enabling a shift in the current business model; and evaluate methods of mobilising resources to address needs and possible opportunities presented in a crisis.

Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS), a South African-based business school and the one of the top ranked business schools in Africa, faced a crisis in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. With the announcement of a national lock down, under strict conditions, and the immediate closure of the GIBS campus, the Academic Programmes had to radically shift their mode of delivery to enable students to continue with their respective programmes. When the situation was further exacerbated by the breaking of the undersea cable, the Executive Director of Academic Programmes, Professor Louise Whittaker faced the difficult decision on what to do next. The case illustrates the need for strong dynamic capabilities to foster organisational agility and to respond effectively in times of deep uncertainty or crises.

The case is positioned at a postgraduate level and would be ideal as a teaching case for business students on a Master of Business Administration programme, a specialised Master in Philosophy programme or selected executive education programmes for general managers or senior executives.

Teaching Notes are available for educators only.

CSS: 11 Strategy.

Start-ups, entrepreneurship, innovation and innovative practices, risks, uncertainties, differentiation, internationalization, competition, business models, operationalizing and implementing strategy.

The case is suitable for MBA students.

Vinay moved to the capital city of a Northern Indian state, which also happened to be a commercial hub, after his family business failed. The family succumbed to living in a room without electricity and doors. Vinay had dreamt of establishing his own business empire by being a successful entrepreneur. Steered by this intent, he established a pharmaceutical company with the name of Ayuvayur Pharmaceuticals. The challenge was to establish an innovative Ayurveda-based pharmaceutical products-based firm and to build a leading business empire with a customer focus. Progress was not smooth and the challenges ahead multiplied. Despite his ability to cope with barriers, risks and uncertainties, Vinay and his business, was challenged to grow globally and emerge from its nascent structure. How should the business expand?

Students can discover the following key learning points: how an enterprise is born; the importance of entrepreneurial recognition and orientation; the lead characteristics of an entrepreneur; how a start-up is born despite the unfamiliarity of the entrepreneur with the field he enters; the role of innovation in a small enterprise; and the risks, barriers, uncertainties and challenges associated with entrepreneurial activity.

Teaching notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email support@emeraldinsight.com to request teaching notes.

The subject area is international business and global operations.

The study includes BSc, MSc and MBA students and management trainees who are interested in learning how an industry can be assessed to make a decision on market entry/expansion. Even senior management teams could be targeted in executive education programs, as this case provides a detailed procedure and methodology that is also used by companies (multinational corporations and small- and medium-sized enterprises) to develop strategies on corporate and functional levels.

A group of five senior executive teams of different Swiss luxury and lifestyle companies wanted to enter the Middle East market. To figure out the optimal market entry and operating strategies, the senior executive team approached the Head of the Swiss Business Hub Middle East of Switzerland Global Enterprise, Thomas Meier, in December 2012. Although being marked with great potential and an over-proportional growth, the Middle Eastern luxury market contained impediments that international firms had to take into consideration. Therefore, Thomas had to analyze the future outlook for this segment of the Middle East retail sector to develop potential strategies for the five different Swiss luxury and lifestyle companies to potentially operate successfully in the Middle East luxury and lifestyle market.

The study identifies barriers and operations challenges especially for Swiss and other foreign luxury and lifestyle retailers in the Middle East, understands the future (2017) institutional environment of the luxury and lifestyle retail sector in the Middle East and applies the institutions-resources matrix in the context of a Swiss company to evaluate the uncertainties prevailing in the Middle East luxury and lifestyle retail sector. It helps in turning insights about future developments in an industry (segment) into consequences for the corporate and functional strategies of a company.

Teaching notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or e-mail support@emeraldinsight.com to request teaching notes.

CSS 5: International Business.

Perdue Farms, the highly successful marketer of brand-name chicken, is considering the introduction of a chicken hot dog to the market. The decision is complicated by a variety of factors, including top management's concerns and conditions, potential ramifications of the hot dog for the company's high-quality image, the uncertainty of market response, uncertainties about how to position the new product, potential consumer objections to use of mechanically deboned meat, and the uncertainty of profitability at recommended levels of marketing costs.