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The purpose of this paper is to consider the economic information content within several popular stock market factors and to the extent to which their movements are both explained by economic variables and can explain future output growth.

Using US stock portfolios from 1964 to 2019, the authors undertake three related exercises: whether a set of common factors contain independent predictive ability for stock returns, what economic and market variables explain movements in the factors and whether stock market factors have predictive power for future output growth.

The results show that several of the considered factors do not contain independent information for stock returns. Further, most of these factors are neither explained by economic conditions nor they provide any predictive power for future output growth. Thus, they appear to contain very little economic content. However, the results suggest that the impact of these factors is more prominent with higher macroeconomic risk (contractionary regime).

The stock market factors are more likely to reflect existing market conditions and exhibit a weaker relation with economic conditions and do not act as a window on future behavior.

Fama and French three-factor model still have better explanations for stock returns and economic information more than any other models.

This paper contributes to the literature by examining whether a selection of factors provides unique information when modelling stock returns data. It also investigates what variables can predict movements in the stock market factors. Third, it examines whether the factors exhibit a link with subsequent economic output. This should establish whether the stock market factors contain useful information for stock returns and the macroeconomy or whether the significance of the factor is a result of chance. The results in this paper should advance our understanding of asset price movement and the links between the macroeconomy and financial markets and, thus, be of interest to academics, investors and policy-makers.

This work proposes a methodology to project future freight demand for all commodity types that begin and end in each geographical region and the amount of freight that moves between all origin and destination pairs. Following the traditional four-step demand forecasting framework, the procedure corresponds to trip generation and trip distribution analysis for interregional freight demand. Using future economic growth factors from macroeconomic and input-output models, the amounts of freight production and attraction in each analysis zone are forecasted and taken as given. Subsequently, an iterative matrix balancing method is applied to determine the estimated freight shipment demand for all origin and destination zone pairs. The proposed algorithm is applied to generate predicted future freight demand within the United States from 2010-2050 in five-year increments based on the national freight demand data from 2007. Four different scenarios are proposed that consider variations in both global economic growth and environmental regulation. This study will assist transportation planners and decision makers in public and private sectors to assess how future freight delivery demand on the national scale considering various future global economic growth and environmental policy scenarios will affect various issues such as air quality and human health problems.

The relationship between man and nature varies with different stages of the development of human society. The destructive consequences brought about in the early stage of industrialization sparked serious concerns about ecological and environmental issues.

The worldwide controversy aroused by The Limits to Growth published in 1972 made people realize that the carrying capacity of the ecosystem was limited, as were the resources. In the long run, scientific and technological progress can constantly discover new energy and resources.

However, in every specific stage of human society, the energy and resources crises are always a severe challenge that human beings should face. It is the core contents of sustainable development to change the old economic growth model and explore a new economic growth model.

The relationship between man and nature is one of the most fundamental relationships in human society and economic development. How to deal with it is also one of the most fundamental issues in human society and economic development. From the perspective of the historical process of human society, the relationship has roughly gone through the following stages.

This paper aims to investigate the impact of uncertainty on the predictive power of term spread and its components for future stock market returns and economic activity in Korea and the USA. This paper finds that the stock market’s expected excess return and growth of economic activity are positively related to the risk-neutral expectation, one of the term spread’s components, particularly during high uncertainty periods. These findings are consistent with the importance of the monetary policy by the central bank in a high uncertainty environment created by unexpected shocks. The results are robust to alternate definitions of high uncertainty periods.

Currently, China’s economy is in the critical phase of transforming economic development patterns and replacing old growth drivers with new ones. Whether it can successfully overcome the “middle-income trap” has become a significant issue attracting wide attention.

Driven by underlying digital technologies such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, cloud computing and big data, the fourth industrial revolution featuring the booming digital economy has provided significant opportunities for China’s economy to “overtake” and overcome the “middle-income trap”. The transformation of economic development pattern, the optimization of industrial structure, and the change of growth drivers, brought by the deep integration of digital and real economies are the keys to leaping over the “middle-income trap”.

From the supply side, the digital economy can improve the quality and efficiency of the supply side and promote the supply-side structural reform and economic growth from the following three aspects: First, promote the quality, efficiency and diversification of the supply system; second, promote networking, opening-up and synergy in the innovation system and third, promote the socialization, modularization and flexibility of production pattern. From the demand side, the digital economy can boost the new drivers of the “troika” of economic growth consisting of consumption, exports and investment by changing the market investment direction, promoting consumption upgrade and fostering export strengths. However, once these two attributes interact with each other, especially when data is combined with capital, the most adhesive factor in the market economy, a series of new social relations will then be produced based on the technical attribute, resulting in significant adjustments in social relations, involving both positive and negative externalities.

To overcome the “middle-income trap”, it is necessary to adapt to the laws of economic evolution and promote a fundamental change in economic growth drivers; boost the high-quality development of the digital economy by strengthening the support role of data in the digital economy; and accelerate digital industrialization and industrial digitalization to realize the integration of digital and real economies.

Constant or decreasing returns and increasing returns to scale are two kinds of mechanism in economic growth. The goal of supply-side structural reform is to promote the establishment of the mechanism with increasing returns to scale. The paper aims to discuss this issue.

This paper argues that the overall economic structure of the developing economy has been divided into the sector of constant or decreasing returns to scale and the sector of increasing returns to scale due to the dual economic structure. Among them, the supply-side structural reform is mainly to reduce the sector of decreasing returns to scale and increase the sector of increasing returns to scale. Based on the hypothesis of such two-sector economic structure in the supply side of developing economies and on the industrial data, this paper empirically tests the returns to scale of China’s supply structure. The result suggests that so far the sector of constant or decreasing returns to scale dominates the supply structure of China’s economic growth, which results in the state of decreasing returns to scale in China’s overall economy.

Therefore, to realize the long-term sustained growth and transformation of the development pattern of China’s economy, the authors must carry out the supply-side structural reform, vigorously develop the modern industrial sectors characterized by modern knowledge and technology, and promote the development of an innovation-driven economy.

Besides, the authors must accelerate the transformation from traditional industrial sectors to modern industrial sectors, actively promote China’s industrial structure toward rationalization and high gradation, as well as build a modern industrial system so as to facilitate the formation of the mechanism of increasing returns to scale and accelerate the transformation of the driving force of China’s economic growth.

The paper aims to present an integrated foresight framework and method to support decision-makers who are confronted with today’s complex and rapidly changing world. The method aims at reducing the degree of uncertainty by addressing the inertia or duration of unfolding trends and by placing individual trends in a broader context.

The paper presents a three-layered framework and method for assessing megatrends based on their inertia or duration. It suggests that if long-term trends and key future uncertainties are studied in conjunction at a meta-level and placed in a broader multi-layered framework of trends, it can result in new insights.

The application of the proposed foresight method helps to systematically place a wide range of unrelated trends and key uncertainties in the context of a broader framework of trends, thereby improving the ability to understand the inertia, direction and mutual interaction of these trends.

The elaboration of identified trends and key uncertainties is partly case-specific and subject to interpretation. It is aimed at illustrating the potential use of the framework.

The paper presents a new approach that may, by itself or in combination with existing foresight methods, offer new means for anticipating future developments.

The use of the proposed framework has potential to provide better insight in the complexity of today’s rapid-changing world and the major transitions taking place. It aims to result in sharper foresight by reducing epistemic uncertainty for decision-makers.

The paper demonstrates how megatrends, Kondratieff waves and century-long trends can be placed in an integrated framework and analysed in conjunction.

In the 21^st Century, a region 's growth and prosperity will depend upon its intermodal transportation infrastructure and its ability to efficiently move goods, materials, and people within the system whether it be from origin to destination; from supplier to customer through the various levels of the supply-chain; or from point to point within the system. Planning for the future focuses on improving a region 's intermodal transportation system efficiencies and infrastructure, its connection to other economies, and on the development of logistics institutions and facilities.

With China 's rapidly developing economy and society, record numbers of new modern facilities such as airports, ports, highways, logistics parks and warehouses are being built. Along with this, companies have made extensive investments in information technologies and software to support the tremendous growth that has taken place in the logistics industry. The development and improvement of China's historic inland water transport system is essential to their continued future growth and prosperity. In Korea, past and present National Governments have emphasized the importance of developing a North East Asian Logistics and Business Hub in their region and have worked on strategies, which include water transport, as part of an important national agenda to that end.

This article looks at how trade flows in the Yangtze and Yellow Sea Regions and between China and South Korea might be enhanced by application of improved shipping methods in marine commerce that will promote economic growth in the region. The application of logistics practices and use of barges is explored for the movement of containers on inland and coastal waterways as well as in short sea shipping which could greatly facilitate the region 's situation with respect to future economic growth.

Global supply chains experienced unprecedented changes in 2020 and the relationship between domestic and global markets needed adjustments considering the long-term impacts of the changes that are unfolding around these markets. China has become the first country to announce a formal strategy – “Dual Circulation” Strategy (DCS) – to guide its self-reliant economic development in the post-COVID era. However, what exactly is the DCS and what drove China to publicize this strategy is not yet clear. This study aims to answer these questions.

Based on an extensive review of literature and media reports, a background has been constructed that justifies the DCS as a long-overdue historic necessity.

A novel definition of “Dual Circulation” is introduced. A novel construct to visualize the domestic circulation in light of international and domestic markets and international circulation has been presented. The study argues that maintaining optimum levels of consumption and saving rates is crucial to the DCS’s success.

The study pioneers the first scientific definition of the “Dual Circulation” that will pave way for future debate on the topic. Also, it is the first time an academic study on the DCS has been executed.

This research's main objective is to investigate the relationship between consumption expenditure and consumer confidence in the USA and to study their effects on US economic revivalism during and after the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) shock.

The authors use Michigan's monthly Consumer Sentiment Index and its five components from January 1978 to April 2020. The study is unique in quantifying the potential variations in US consumer confidence due to COVID-19 under different scenarios, by providing a projection until December 2021. It also estimates the time needed for recovery and offers guidance to policymakers on ways to contain the negative impacts of COVID-19 on the economy by restoring consumer confidence.

All scenarios show a gradual recovery of consumer confidence and consumption expenditure. This study recommends expansionary policies to encourage consumption expenditure to generate additional demand and boost economic growth and job creation.

Though this study is limited to the US consumer confidence index, it offers significant implications for marketers, customers and policymakers of other developed economies. The authors recommend expansionary economic policies to boost consumer confidence, raise economic growth and result in job creation.

The study is unique in quantifying the potential variations in US consumer confidence due to COVID-19 under different scenarios; by providing a projection until December 2021. It also estimates the time needed for recovery and guidance for policymakers on ways to contain the COVID-19 shock negative impacts on the economy by restoring consumer confidence.