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The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of the 2008 and 2020 economic crises on employment in Spain.

The authors perform a counterfactual analysis, combining intervention (interrupted time series) analysis and conditional forecasting to estimate a “crisis-free” scenario. These counterfactual estimates are used as a synthetic control, to be compared with the observed values of the main variables of the Spanish Labor Force Survey (EPA).

The authors measure the effect on Spanish employment of the 2008 recession and the ongoing COVID/Ukraine crisis and the speed of recovery, which yields a rigorous dating for the beginning and end of the crises studied. Finally, the authors provide estimates about which part of the employed and unemployed people was in furlough (ERTE) based on microdata provided by the Spanish Institute of Statistics.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, there are no counterfactual studies covering all the basic variables in EPA and no estimates for the effect of ERTEs on the basic employment variables. Finally, the authors combine well-known intervention and forecasting techniques into an integrated framework to assess the effects of both, past and ongoing crises.

The role of patents for appropriating (capturing) value from innovation investments has for decades been of major interest to both practitioners and academics in innovation management. Many studies have implicitly assumed that firms appropriate value through in-house creation and marketing of innovative products and services, and that the main function of patents is to protect the exclusive sales in product and service markets. We challenge this assumption in light of the variety of business models, strategies and markets now being available, including different organizational and market forms of open innovation.

A conceptual framework and typology of open innovation markets is developed, and the role of patents for appropriation is investigated in these markets among 172 Swedish technology-based firms.

The results show that the importance of patents has a skewed distribution with some firms rating patents very important and with a fat tail of firms rating patents less important. Most importantly, the results indicate that patents are enabling exchange and technology trade in various types of open innovation markets rather than only supporting vertically integrated business models. Thus patents were found to help rather than hinder the use of open innovation markets.

The paper makes two main contributions. First a theoretical reinterpretation of open innovation with a conceptualization of open innovation markets for appropriation of innovation values. Second an empirical illustration of new roles of patents for appropriating innovation values in these markets. The paper in addition illustrates the use of a counterfactual approach to questionnaire surveys, as well as the complementarities between patents and other means of appropriation.

To develop a framework for estimating the economic benefits of an accessible and inclusive society and implement it for the Canadian context. The framework measures the gap between the current situation in terms of accessibility and inclusiveness, and a counterfactual scenario of a fully accessible and inclusive society.

The method consists of three steps. First, the conceptual framework was developed based on a literature review and expert knowledge. Second, the magnitudes for each domain of the framework was estimated for the reference year 2017 using data from various sources. Third, several sensitivity analyses were run using different assumptions and scenarios.

It was estimated that moving to a fully accessible and inclusive society would create a value of $337.7bn (with a range of $252.8–$422.7bn) for Canadian society in the reference year of 2017. This is a sizeable proportion of gross domestic product (17.6%, with a range of 13.1–22.0%) and is likely a conservative estimate of the potential benefits.

Understanding the magnitude of the economic benefits of an accessible and inclusive society can be extremely useful for governments, disability advocates and industry leaders as it provides invaluable information on the benefits of efforts, such as legislation, policies, programs and practices, to improve accessibility and inclusion of persons with disabilities. Furthermore, the total economic benefits and the benefits per person with a disability can serve as inputs in economic evaluations and impact assessments.

Economic theories on structural change focus on factors such as fluctuations in relative prices and income growth. In addition, China’s reform and opening up has also been accompanied by increasing openness, significant fluctuations in investment rates, and frictions in the labor market. Existing literature lacks a unified theoretical framework to assess the relative importance of all these determinants. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

To incorporate all of the potential determinants of China’s structural change, the authors build a two-country four-sector neoclassical growth model that embeds the multi-sector Eaton and Kortum (2002) model of international trade, complete input-output structure, non-homothetic preference and labor market frictions. The authors decompose the sectoral employment shares into six effects: the Baumol, Engel, investment, international trade, factor intensity and labor market friction effects. Using the data of Chinese economy from 1978 to 2011, the authors perform a quantitative investigation of the six determinants’ effects through the decomposition approach and counterfactual exercises.

Low-income elasticity of demand, high labor intensity, and the existence of the switching costs are the reasons for the high employment share in the agricultural sector. Technological progress, investment and international trade have comparatively less influence on the proportion difference of employment in the three sectors.

Therefore, to examine the impact on China’s structural change, in addition to Baumol effect and the Engel effect, it is also necessary to consider the impact of three more factors: international trade, investment and switching costs. Therefore, the authors decompose the factors that may influence China’s structural change into the Baumol, Engel, investment, international trade, factor intensity effect and switching cost effects. The authors evaluate these six effects using the decomposition approach and counterfactual exercises.

Based on the survey data of 650 kiwi growers from Shaanxi and Sichuan provinces, this paper used multiple endogenous transformation regression models to explore the effect of the joint adoption of green production technology on farmer’s welfare. The purpose of the study is to analyze the influence of green production technology on the yield, household income and socioeconomic characteristics of Kiwi fruit growers.

In the context of the study, multiple endogenous transformation model (MESR) are adopted, but self-actualization tactics were adopted to deal with the instrumental variables. The empirical data has been collected via a combined hierarchical sampling and random sampling, whereas a well-structured Likert scale questionnaire was adopted as well. The empirical data has been processed with the help of STATA 15.1 version.

The study found a positive impact of adopting green production technology. Moreover, the joint adoption of green production technology by kiwi growers has significantly increased the yield, economic values of Kiwi and household income of kiwi farmers. The households with higher asset value, better land quality, weaker credit constraints, more technical training and stronger government promotion and support from local governments are the most likely to adopt pest control technology and soil management technology jointly.

The prime innovation of the paper is to measure the impact of technology combination adoption on farmer’s welfare is evaluated, rather than the impact of single sub technology on farmer’s’ welfare.

This paper aims to build a theoretical model of the impact of farmers’ adoption behavior of soil and water conservation measures on the agricultural output to analyze the impact of farmers’ adoption behavior of soil and water conservation measures on agricultural output.

Based on the field survey data of 808 farmers households in three provinces (regions) of the Loess Plateau, this paper using the endogenous switching regression model to analyze the effect of farmers’ adoption behavior of soil and water conservation measures on agricultural output.

Soil erosion has a significant negative impact on agricultural output, and soil erosion has a significant positive impact on farmers’ adoption of soil and water conservation measures. Farmers adopt soil and water conservation measures such as engineering measures, biological measures and tillage measures to cope with soil erosion, which can increase agricultural output. Based on the counterfactual hypothesis, if farmers who adopt soil and water conservation measures do not adopt the corresponding soil and water conservation measures, their average output per ha output will decrease by 2.01%. Then, if farmers who do not adopt soil and water conservation measures adopt the corresponding soil and water conservation measures, their average output per ha output will increase by 12.12%. Government support and cultivated land area have a significant positive impact on farmers’ adoption behavior of soil and water conservation measures.

The research limitation is the lack of panel data.

Soil erosion has a significant negative impact on agricultural output, and soil erosion has a significant positive impact on farmers’ adoption of soil and water conservation measures. Farmers adopt soil and water conservation measures such as engineering measures, biological measures and tillage measures to cope with soil erosion, which can increase agricultural output.

The conclusion provides a reliable empirical basis for the government to formulate and implement relevant policies.

The contributions of this paper are as follows: the adoption behavior of soil and water conservation measures and agricultural output are included into the same analytical framework for empirical analysis, revealing the influencing factors of farmers’ adoption behavior of soil and water conservation measures and their output effects, enriching existing research. Using endogenous switching regression model and introducing instrumental variables to overcome the endogenous problem between the adoption behavior of soil and water conservation measures and agricultural output, and to analyze the influencing factors of farmers’ adoption behavior of soil and water conservation measures and its impact on agricultural output. Using the counter-factual idea to ensure that the two matched individuals have the same or similar attributes, to evaluate the average treatment effect of the behavior of soil and water conservation measures, to estimate the real impact of adaptation measures on agricultural output as accurately as possible and to avoid misleading policy recommendations.

Rosewood, as the most internationally traded endangered species, is subject to a series of restrictive trade policies globally. China has historically been the largest importer of rosewood in the world. The fluctuation of China’s rosewood import prices will have a profound impact on the global rosewood trade pattern. This study, therefore, assessed the impact of restrictive trade policies on China’s rosewood import prices to explore the fluctuation rule of rosewood trade prices under restrictive policies.

The study built a partial equilibrium framework about the formation mechanism of rosewood import price bubbles under supply constraints. On this basis, with China’s daily import prices of major rosewood species, the generalized supremum augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) and backward supremum augmented Dickey–Fuller (BSADF) tests were applied to explore the effect of restrictive trade policies on China’s rosewood import prices.

The empirical analysis revealed that there were multiple price bubbles for five of the seven rosewood species. The largest bubbles were always created before and after the deployment of supply constraints. The empirical results for the counterfactual examples implied that price bubbles would not have occurred if restrictive rosewood trade policies had not been implemented. The above findings indicated that these measures tended to trigger significant price bubbles in China’s rosewood imports.

The effect of restrictive rosewood trade policies on rosewood trade prices had not yet been explored in previous research studies. This study empirically analyzed the effect of restrictive trade policies on China’s rosewood import prices using econometric models.

Microbusinesses are better able to assist many disadvantaged groups in finding employment and breaking the cycle of poverty because they require less initial capital and employ a large number of poor people in developing economies. Women run and own the majority of micro-businesses in urban Ethiopia. This study aims to investigate women’s microbusiness participation decisions and the effect on poverty in the Wolaita zone southern Ethiopia.

A cross-sectional study was carried out using a mixed-methods research approach. A total of 384 women who owned micro-businesses were chosen using a systematic random sampling technique, while 36 women were purposefully chosen for qualitative data analysis. Data were gathered through survey questionnaires, in-depth interviews and focus group discussions. The collected data were analyzed by using a propensity score matching technique as well as contextual analysis.

The study discovered that women’s participation in registered micro-businesses had a higher and more beneficial impact on their food, non-food and overall consumer spending than women’s participation in unregistered microbusinesses, which helped to reduce poverty. Besides, overall women’s participation in micro-business increased their decision-making power and enabled them to provide resources for their families food and non-food consumption, with registered micro-business participants reaping the greatest benefits.

This research focused on the effects of women’s micro-entrepreneurship on poverty in low-income communities. Rather than providing food, clothing and/or other aid to women in disadvantaged communities, the authors asserted that assisting women and their micro-businesses allows them to be self-sufficient in terms of food and clothing as a long-term solution to poverty reduction. As a result, policymakers can use our findings to gain a better understanding of how women’s micro-entrepreneurship affects poverty reduction, allowing them to develop more effective anti-poverty initiatives. This study’s findings are novel and add to the body of knowledge in Ethiopia and the sub-Saharan African region.

This paper aims to examine the short-term effect of the Arizona Immigration Law of 2010 (SB 1070) on the noncitizen Hispanic state population.

To get a consistent estimate of this effect, a synthetic control method has been used to calculate a suitable counterfactual.

Results indicate that this bill produced a statistically significant short-term reduction in the proportion of noncitizen Hispanics in Arizona between 10 and 15 per cent. However, the evidence suggests that this effect vanishes after a few months.

These findings are consistent with previous evidence of the high mobility of the undocumented population in the US, and contribute to the understanding of the effects of federal and state-level immigration legislation.

Este artículo examina el efecto a corto plazo de la Ley de Inmigración de Arizona de 2010 (SB 1070) sobre la población hispana no ciudadana.

Para obtener una estimación consistente sobre este efecto, he utilizado un método de control sintético para calcular una hipótesis de contraste adecuada.

Los resultados indican que este proyecto produjo una reducción a corto plazo estadísticamente significativa en la proporción de hispanos no ciudadanos en Arizona —entre el 10% y el 15%—. Sin embargo, la evidencia sugiere que este efecto desaparece después de unos meses.

Estos hallazgos son consistentes con la evidencia previa de la alta movilidad de la población indocumentada en los Estados Unidos, y contribuyen a la comprensión de los efectos de la legislación de inmigración federal y estatal.

Población hispana, Inmigración ilegal, Control sintético

Artículo de investigación

This paper aims to provide an estimation of the costs of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic with a special focus on Spain. Costs include macroeconomic costs of foregone gross domestic product (GDP) attributable to the pandemic and the direct and indirect costs of prevention, treatment and lost productivity. This study also analyzes the cost-effectiveness of the test-tracking-quarantine (TTQ) strategy in Spain.

The macroeconomic costs of foregone GDP attributable to the pandemic are estimated for different countries and areas by comparing the present GDP forecasts for 2020 and 2021 with counterfactuals estimated before the COVID-19 crisis aftermath. The total cost of the COVID-19 for Spain in 2020 was obtained using the cost of illness approach with a bottom-up process. A cost-effectiveness analysis of the TTQ strategy in Spain is based on the estimation of the total costs of TTQ and the health gains and avoided health-care costs associated with the TTQ strategy. A sensitivity analysis explores the consequences of uncertainty in key parameters.

The GDP cost of the COVID-19 is by far larger than all the other components of the cost. The global cost of the Covid-19 crisis in 2020–2021 is estimated at 14% of 2019 GDP (around 12,206 mm$). In the specific case of Spain, it amounts to 24% of the 2019 GDP; which is 397.3 m €. Spain is and will be by far the European country most economically affected by the pandemic. In Spain 2020, the GDP cost accounts for 94.7% of the total cost of the COVID-19 and health-care direct costs are only 2.14%. TTQ is a dominant strategy in Spain. For each euro spent on it, 7 euros will be recovered only in terms of saved health-care resources.

Given the large degree of uncertainty and the fast-evolving nature of the epidemic, a number of assumptions are required to arrive at the estimates provided in this study. The results were found to be robust to the assumptions applied.

TTQ is a key strategy for the contention of the epidemy and it is justified from the economic perspective.

This is the first estimation of the cost of the COVID-19 and the cost-effectiveness of the TTQ strategy for Spain.