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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the economic impacts of intra- and inter-regional water reallocation on sectoral transformation and economic growth.

A multi-sector, Ramsey-type growth model is fit to Chinese data and used to perform policy experiments.

An intra-regional water reallocation increases per capita gross domestic product (GDP) by about 1.5 percent per year over the period 2000-2060. The aggregate potential welfare gain due to this reallocation is 1002.51 billion RMB. Transferring water from southern to northern China via the South-North Water Transfer Project, on average, has a negligible impact on per capita GDP over the period 2000-2060, but aggregate welfare increases by 557.23 billion RMB. Combining intra-regional and inter-regional water reallocations, on average, increases per capita GDP by 0.38 percent per year over the period and the aggregate welfare gain from this combination is 1148.06 billion RMB. Each policy scenario has implications for long-run regional production patterns: In an intra-regional reallocation scenario, Southern China produces almost 70 percent of aggregate GDP, in the inter-regional transfer it produces 58 percent of aggregate GDP, while in a combined intra/inter-regional reallocation it produces 55 percent of aggregate GDP.

This analysis can serve as a template for developing a useful planning tool that one can fit to national or regional data and use to examine a variety of policy relevant questions.

Pesaran and Smith (2011) concluded that Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models were sometimes a straitjacket which hampered the ability to match certain features of the data. In this chapter, the authors look at how one might assess the fit of these models using a variety of measures, rather than what seems to be an increasingly common device – the Marginal Data Density. The authors apply these in the context of models by Christiano, Motto, and Rostagno (2014) and Ireland (2004), finding they fail to make a match by a large margin. Both of these models feature more shocks than observed variables, resulting in the empirical shocks having a singular density, and so making them correlated. When correlated one can neither interpret impulse responses nor perform variance decompositions. Against this, there is a strong argument for having a straitjacket, as it enforces some desirable behavior on models and makes researchers think about how to account for any non-stationarity in the data. The authors illustrate this with examples drawn from the SVAR literature and also more eclectic models such as Holston, Laubach, and Williams (2017) for extracting an estimate of the real natural rate.

Since the financial crisis, East Asian countries have worked on bilateral/regional Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). Currently, East Asian countries are working on over 30 FTAs. So far, the United States (U.S.) has exerted its considerable political and economic power in East Asia, but its political and diplomatic position is increasingly shaky for many reasons-emergence of China’s economic and military strength, growing regionalism in East Asia, weakening influence of the Asia Pacific Economic Conference (APEC) forum, and growing anti-American sentiment after the anti-terrorism war. The U.S. will be even more concerned about the development of FTAs in East Asia, since the country will suffer economic and non-economic losses when the East Asian regionalism is developed. This article evaluates a U.S.-Korea FTA in terms of U.S. involvement in East Asian regionalism, and tries to provide an economic assessment of the FTA. This article points out that the U.S. should take advantage of the U.S.-Korea FTA to secure its interests in East Asia and to avoid exclusion from East Asian regional economic integration.

The concept of co-movement has witnessed a resurgence in the international finance literature in recent years after the black swan events. This might be due to a renewed focus on globalization and financial market integration in the world over. The purpose of this paper is to examine the dynamic linkages in the foreign exchange market resulting from recent globalization and financial market integration in Africa.

A conceptual framework was adapted from the extant literature and was used as the basis of modeling foreign exchange market in Africa. This paper adopts a quantitative research approach and opted for dynamic panel data analysis to empirically unearth the determinants of foreign exchange market co-movement.

It is interesting to note that exchange rate co-movements were externally determined. Robust support was found for trade intensity, competition and world interest rate on foreign exchange rates co-movement, but regional interest rate differential decreased it. These findings clearly demonstrate the level of financial development and challenges that sometimes exist in exchange rate policy implementation by policy makers in Africa.

Future research might incorporate bilateral investment into the model of exchange rate correlation.

Studies focussing on simultaneous consideration of intensity, trade competition and capital account openness to exchange rate correlations in the contexts of Africa are almost non-existent, and this study makes an important contribution in not only addressing this imbalance but also more importantly improving the relatively parsimonious literature on foreign exchange co-movement.

Explores possibilities for simulating the effects of continuous disruptions to an economy using a multi‐sector social accounting model. The underlying thesis for the model is that disruptions (due to events ranging from potholes to earthquakes) are a constant and unavoidable aspect of development and that all institutions and production activities are structured and adapt over time so as to balance performance and protection. The first sections explain the role of input‐output tables, especially social accounts, as the basic framework for evaluating systemic vulnerability to disaster. The next sections explain the underlying behavioral components of the model: how the profile of protection versus disruption and costs of protection are determined, and how adaptation of the protection profile to changing events and societal discounting affects protection. In the final sections, these elements are integrated into a multi‐sector social accounting model of the Niagara Frontier region of New York State – affected by industrial decline and currency fluctuations is dependent on a major hydro‐electric power facility that is considered vulnerable to a variety of unscheduled events. Results focus on how disruptions and responses to them propagate over time and between actors.

The authors explore the hypothesis that some movements in commodity prices are anticipated (news shocks) and can trigger aggregate fluctuations in small open emerging economies. This paper aims to discuss the aforementioned objective.

The authors build a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with endogenous commodity production. There are five exogenous processes: a country-specific interest rate shock that responds to commodity price fluctuations, a productivity (TFP) shock for each sector and a commodity price shock. Both TFP and commodity price shocks are composed of unanticipated and anticipated components.

The authors show that news shocks to commodity prices lead to higher output, investment and consumption, and a countercyclical movement in the trade-balance-to-output ratio. The authors also show that commodity price news shocks explain about 24% of output aggregate fluctuations in the small open economy.

Given the importance of both anticipated and unanticipated commodity price shocks, policymakers should pay attention to developments in commodity markets when designing policies to attenuate the business cycles. Future research should investigate the design of optimal fiscal and monetary policies in SOE subject to news shocks in commodity prices.

This paper contributes to the knowledge of the sources of fluctuations in emerging economies highlighting the importance of a new source: news shocks in commodity prices.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of investment growth in energy sectors of western areas of China on the local economy and emission of carbon dioxide (CO₂).

The paper is based on a two‐region, ten‐sector recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model which is based on the input‐output table of Shaanxi Province for 2002.

Three different scenarios are considered in a static analysis where the investment in the energy sector of western areas is increased at the rate of 20, 40 and 60 per cent. The changes of some macro‐economic variables are simulated under these scenarios. The long‐term effects on GDP and emission of CO₂ in different scenarios are also simulated. The results show that the GDP growth is 0‐8.92 per cent, households disposable income growth is 0‐8.94 per cent, and emission of CO₂ growth is 0‐11.10 per cent when the investment grows between 0 and 60 per cent. The oil and gas sector is the most effective sector whose growth rate is 0‐19.47 per cent. The effects of investment growth in base period are relatively big but weaken gradually over time in the long‐run.

The paper is of value in highlighting the importance (for policy makers) of considering the development and application of low‐emission technologies to prevent further environmental degradation.

This study analyzes the dynamic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumption among Ghanaian households, by identifying the existing consumption inequalities in the households according to the different age categories of the household head and changes in consumption patterns among the household constituents. In particular, the study examines the effects of the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) on household consumption and the differing impact on the different age categories of the household.

The research methodology of the study is based on the input–output analysis of the Ghanaian economy during the years 2015 and 2021 by using data on household consumption disaggregated by age. Economic impact is estimated through multi-sector modeling, specifically a demand model expressed based on a money metric measure valued in Ghanaian cedis. This model allows us to obtain the direct impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the manufacturing sector, professional, scientific and technical activities, Water supply, sewerage, and waste management within Ghanaian households. The model also observed a negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the public sector works and defense, and SSNIT sectors of the Ghanaian economy.

The findings of the study revealed that for the category of age group between the ages of 15–29 years, the consumption of manufacturing products experienced an increase of 6.20% whiles that of electricity consumption, air conditioning and heating reduced by 2.26% for the period under consideration. However, public sector works and defense, and SSNIT experienced a decline by 8.24%. For the age group between 30 and 45 years, the highest and most positive percentage change in household consumption was noted to be professional, scientific and technical activities (6.20%), Water supply, sewerage, waste management (5.98%), as well as manufacturing (5.65%). However, there was a decline in the consumption level of education by Ghanaian households during the lockdown especially among people within the age group of 46–65 years. There was a decline of 6.11% for the administrative and support services and there was also a decline the services of defense and SSNIT service consumption by 2.10%. For the final age group of 66 years and above, there was an increase of 6.94% in the consumption of such essential utilities in Ghana between 2015 and 2021. The demand for education however showed a drastic reduction of 8.1% over the study period due to this category of age group with majority of them retiring from work.

The findings from this study will help in understanding the effects caused by the pandemic on household consumption and the differing impact on different age category of the household, especially on young households. This can potentially shape future policy by especially helping policymakers to device a more targeted social safety-net policies not only to speed-up recovery, but also to mitigate the negative impact of any future outbreak of a pandemic on household consumption and limit the age gaps in consumptions. However, the study does not consider the income levels of the different age groups. This becomes a limitation of the study and can be further explored in future studies.

This study measures the impact of a global health pandemic on the consumption of all households, with its accompanying impact of this variation. It can be noted that analyzing household consumption and quantifying the positive and negative impact on different age category of the household and the different sectors of the Ghanaian economy add to the limited knowledge of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic at the household level.

Economic theories on structural change focus on factors such as fluctuations in relative prices and income growth. In addition, China’s reform and opening up has also been accompanied by increasing openness, significant fluctuations in investment rates, and frictions in the labor market. Existing literature lacks a unified theoretical framework to assess the relative importance of all these determinants. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

To incorporate all of the potential determinants of China’s structural change, the authors build a two-country four-sector neoclassical growth model that embeds the multi-sector Eaton and Kortum (2002) model of international trade, complete input-output structure, non-homothetic preference and labor market frictions. The authors decompose the sectoral employment shares into six effects: the Baumol, Engel, investment, international trade, factor intensity and labor market friction effects. Using the data of Chinese economy from 1978 to 2011, the authors perform a quantitative investigation of the six determinants’ effects through the decomposition approach and counterfactual exercises.

Low-income elasticity of demand, high labor intensity, and the existence of the switching costs are the reasons for the high employment share in the agricultural sector. Technological progress, investment and international trade have comparatively less influence on the proportion difference of employment in the three sectors.

Therefore, to examine the impact on China’s structural change, in addition to Baumol effect and the Engel effect, it is also necessary to consider the impact of three more factors: international trade, investment and switching costs. Therefore, the authors decompose the factors that may influence China’s structural change into the Baumol, Engel, investment, international trade, factor intensity effect and switching cost effects. The authors evaluate these six effects using the decomposition approach and counterfactual exercises.

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the changes of dental caries status among Thai adults and elderly under the different policy options using system dynamics modeling.

A multi-sector system dynamics model was developed to capture the dynamic interrelationship between dental caries status changes and oral health behavior – including self-care, dental care utilization and sugar consumption. Data used to populate the model was obtained from the Thai national oral health survey in 2000, 2006, 2012 and Thailand Official Statistics Registration. Three policy scenarios were experimented in the model: health promotion policy, dental personnel policy and affordable dental care service policy.

Dental caries experiences among Thai adults and elderly were projected to increase from now to 2040, as the elderly population increases. Among all policies experimented herein, the combined policies of health promotion, increased affordability and capacity of dental health service were found to produce the highest improvement in dental caries status with 3.7 percent reduction of population with high decayed, missing and filled teeth (DMFT) and 5.2 percent increase in population with very low DMFT.

This study is the first comprehensive simulation model that attempts to explore the dynamic interrelationship among dental caries experiences and behavioral factors that impact on oral health outcomes. In addition, the simulation model herein offers a framework for policy experimentation that provides policymakers with additional insights to inform health policy planning.