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We present an approach for pricing American put options with a regime-switching volatility. Our method reveals that the option price can be expressed as the sum of two components: the price of a European put option and the premium associated with the early exercise privilege. Our analysis demonstrates that, under these conditions, the perpetual put option consistently commands a higher price during periods of high volatility compared to those of low volatility. Moreover, we establish that the optimal exercise boundary is lower in high-volatility regimes than in low-volatility regimes. Additionally, we develop an analytical framework to describe American puts with an Erlang-distributed random-time horizon, which allows us to propose a numerical technique for approximating the value of American puts with finite expiry. We also show that a combined approach involving randomization and Richardson extrapolation can be a robust numerical algorithm for estimating American put prices with finite expiry.

The article aims to establish whether the degree of aversion to inflation and the responsiveness to deviations from potential output have changed over time.

This paper assesses time variation in monetary policy rules by applying a time-varying parameter generalised methods of moments (TVP-GMM) framework.

Using monthly data until December 2022 for five inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden) and five countries with alternative monetary regimes (the US, Japan, Denmark, the Euro Area, Switzerland), we find that monetary policy has become more averse to inflation and more responsive to the output gap in both sets of countries over time. In particular, there has been a clear shift in inflation targeting countries towards a more hawkish stance on inflation since the adoption of this regime and a greater response to both inflation and the output gap in most countries after the global financial crisis, which indicates a stronger reliance on monetary rules to stabilise the economy in recent years. It also appears that inflation targeting countries pay greater attention to the exchange rate pass-through channel when setting interest rates. Finally, monetary surprises do not seem to be an important determinant of the evolution over time of the Taylor rule parameters, which suggests a high degree of monetary policy transparency in the countries under examination.

It provides new evidence on changes over time in monetary policy rules.

Recent evidence from a linear econometric framework infers that housing search activity, captured from Google Trends data, can predict housing returns for the USA at a national and regional (metropolitan statistical area [MSA]) level. Based on search theory, the authors, however, postulate that search activity can also predict housing returns volatility. This study aims to explore the possibility of using online search activity to predict both housing returns and volatility.

Using a k-th order non-parametric causality-in-quantiles test allows us to test for predictability in a robust manner over the entire conditional distribution of both housing price returns and its volatility (i.e. squared returns) by controlling for nonlinearity and structural breaks that exist in the data.

The analysis over the monthly period of 2004:01 to 2021:01 produces results indicating that while housing search activity continues to predict aggregate US house price returns, barring the extreme ends of the conditional distribution, volatility is relatively strongly predicted over the entire quantile range considered. The results carry over to an alternative (the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-based) metric of volatility, higher (weekly)-frequency data (over January 2018–March 2021) and to over 84% of the 77 MSAs considered.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study regarding predictability of overall and regional US housing price returns and volatility using search activity, based on a non-parametric higher-order causality-in-quantiles framework, which is insightful to investors, policymakers and academics.

The purpose of this paper is to show the effect of Turkey's geopolitical risk on the number of international tourist arrivals to the country. When Turkish economy in 2019 is analyzed, it is seen that the share of tourism in national income is 11%. For this reason, national economy is significantly affected by changing of the number of international tourist arrivals. Security problems are an important variable affecting tourist arrivals.

The paper focused on secondary data for the period 2000–2019 for macroeconomic variables. Accordingly, the number of international tourist arrivals was added as a dependent variable, geopolitical risk as an independent variable, gross domestic product (GDP) and economic freedom index as control variables and inflations as an external variable to the model. The residual augmented least squares–the autoregressive distributive lag (RALS-ADL) cointegration test and the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) coefficient estimator were used. It allows for more robust results to be obtained when the residues do not have a normal distribution.

The RALS-ADL cointegration test result shows that there is a cointegration relationship between variables at a 1% significance level. Moreover, the DOLS coefficient estimator results indicate that an increase in economic freedom and GDP increase the number of international tourists, whereas an increase in the Geopolitical Risk Index and inflation decreases the number of international tourism arrival. It can be said that tourists consider the security and economic stability of the host country when making tourism decisions.

Turkey is one of the most risky developing countries, as well as one of the most popular travel destinations. When the literature is examined, it has been found that studies for Turkey usually determine the relationship between the variables for a short period of time. However, to ensure sustainable growth and environment of confidence, the long-run relationship between variables should be determined so that policymakers can make more impactful decisions. Therefore, the aim of this study is to make a literature contribution, taking into account the long-term effects. In addition, unlike other studies, this study fills the gap in literature using the RALS-ADL cointegration test, which produces robust estimators.

The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary policy shift, from targeting money supply and exchange rate to inflation. The shifts have affected residential property market dynamics.

The Johansen cointegration approach was used to estimate the effects of changes in monetary policy proxies on residential property prices using quarterly data from 1980 to 2022.

Mortgage finance and economic growth have a significant positive long-run effect on residential property prices. The consumer price index, the inflation targeting framework, interest rates and exchange rates have a significant negative long-run effect on residential property prices. The Granger causality test has depicted that exchange rate significantly influences residential property prices in the short run, and interest rates, inflation targeting framework, gross domestic product, money supply consumer price index and exchange rate can quickly return to equilibrium when they are in disequilibrium.

There are limited arguments whether the inflation targeting monetary policy framework in South Africa has prevented residential property market boom and bust scenarios. The study has found that the implementation of inflation targeting framework has successfully reduced booms in residential property prices in South Africa.

This survey explores the application of real options theory to the field of health economics. The integration of options theory offers a valuable framework to address these challenges, providing insights into healthcare investments, policy analysis and patient care pathways.

This research employs the real options theory, a financial concept, to delve into health economics challenges. Through a systematic approach, three distinct models rooted in this theory are crafted and analyzed. Firstly, the study examines the value of investing in emerging health technology, factoring in future advantages, associated costs and unpredictability. The second model is patient-centric, evaluating the choice between immediate treatment switch and waiting for more clarity, while also weighing the associated risks. Lastly, the research assesses pandemic-related government policies, emphasizing the importance of delaying decisions in the face of uncertainties, thereby promoting data-driven policymaking.

Three different real options models are presented in this study to illustrate their applicability and value in aiding decision-makers. (1) The first evaluates investments in new technology, analyzing future benefits, discount rates and benefit volatility to determine investment value. (2) In the second model, a patient has the option of switching treatments now or waiting for more information before optimally switching treatments. However, waiting has its risks, such as disease progression. By modeling the potential benefits and risks of both options, and factoring in the time value, this model aids doctors and patients in making informed decisions based on a quantified assessment of potential outcomes. (3) The third model concerns pandemic policy: governments can end or prolong lockdowns. While awaiting more data on the virus might lead to economic and societal strain, the model emphasizes the economic value of deferring decisions under uncertainty.

This research provides a quantified perspective on various decisions in healthcare, from investments in new technology to treatment choices for patients to government decisions regarding pandemics. By applying real options theory, stakeholders can make more evidence-driven decisions.

Decisions about patient care pathways and pandemic policies have direct societal implications. For instance, choices regarding the prolongation or ending of lockdowns can lead to economic and societal strain.

The originality of this study lies in its application of real options theory, a concept from finance, to the realm of health economics, offering novel insights and analytical tools for decision-makers in the healthcare sector.

This article examines the impact of banks’ corporate social responsibility communication through social media (CSR-S), electronic word of mouth (eWOM), and brand reputation on consumer behavior during the COVID-19 crisis, with a focus on purchase intention.

The study employed a quantitative approach to analyze data from a survey of 621 Egyptian bank customers who followed the banks’ social media pages and interacted with CSR-S initiatives. A genetic algorithm selected the most relevant variables affecting purchase intention. A Bayesian regression model was used to analyze the impact of CSR-S communication, eWOM, and brand reputation on purchase intention.

CSR-S initiatives, eWOM, and brand reputation were found to influence customer purchase intention. CSR-S initiatives can boost purchase intention by encouraging brand reputation and initiative sharing with friends and other customers. However, CSR-S negatively moderates the positive impact of eWOM and brand reputation on the predisposition to contract products and services with the bank.

This study addresses critical research gaps in CSR literature. Firstly, it examines the impact of CSR-S actions on customer behavior, a perspective less explored in previous research. Secondly, it investigates the intricate relationships between CSR-S, eWOM, brand reputation, and purchase intention, shedding light on their interplay, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, this research extends CSR-S investigations to the competitive banking industry and focuses on a developing country context, enhancing the applicability of findings for Egyptian banks. Lastly, the study employs advanced methodologies to improve the accuracy of results.

本文擬探討於2019冠狀病毒病危機期間、銀行透過社交媒體而進行關於企業社會責任的溝通 (以下簡稱社媒企社責溝通) 、電子口碑和品牌聲譽,如何影響消費行為; 研究會聚焦於客戶的購買意向上。

研究以定量方法、去分析來自涵蓋621名埃及銀行客戶的調查的數據; 這些客戶均有追隨銀行的社交媒體頁面,並曾與銀行就企業社會責任提出的倡議進行互動交流。研究人員以基因演算法挑選了與購買意向相關性最密切的變量,並以貝葉斯回歸模型,去分析探討社媒企社責溝通、電子口碑和品牌聲譽、如何影響客戶的購買意向。

研究結果顯示,透過社交媒體傳達的企業社會責任倡議、電子口碑和品牌聲譽,均會影響客戶的購買意向。這類倡議會透過促進品牌聲譽和朋友或客戶間的互相共享而令購買意向提昇。唯社媒企社責溝通會減弱電子口碑和品牌聲譽給客戶購買意向帶來的正面影響,使他們與銀行訂立商品或服務契約的意欲降低。

本研究致力回應企業社會責任文獻內重要的研究空白。首先,研究人員探討社媒企社責溝通對客戶行為帶來的影響,這研究角度從來沒有被充分利用。其次,本研究探討社媒企社責溝通、電子口碑、品牌聲譽和購買意向之間錯綜複雜的關係,這幫助闡明各元素的相互作用,尤以2019冠狀病毒病肆虐期間為甚。再者,本研究把關於社媒企社責溝通的研究擴展至競爭性銀行業,並聚焦於涉及一個發展中國家的背景,這都使研究結果更能應用於分析埃及銀行上。最後,研究人員為了提高研究結果的準確性,採用了先進的方法進行研究。

Agriculture commodity price forecasts have long been important for a variety of market players. The study we conducted aims to address this difficulty by examining the weekly wholesale price index of green grams in the Chinese market. The index covers a ten-year period, from January 1, 2010, to January 3, 2020, and has significant economic implications.

In order to address the nonlinear patterns present in the price time series, we investigate the nonlinear auto-regressive neural network as the forecast model. This modeling technique is able to combine a variety of basic nonlinear functions to approximate more complex nonlinear characteristics. Specifically, we examine prediction performance that corresponds to several configurations across data splitting ratios, hidden neuron and delay counts, and model estimation approaches.

Our model turns out to be rather simple and yields forecasts with good stability and accuracy. Relative root mean square errors throughout training, validation and testing are specifically 4.34, 4.71 and 3.98%, respectively. The results of benchmark research show that the neural network produces statistically considerably better performance when compared to other machine learning models and classic time-series econometric methods.

Utilizing our findings as independent technical price forecasts would be one use. Alternatively, policy research and fresh insights into price patterns might be achieved by combining them with other (basic) prediction outputs.