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1 – 10 of 703Mohamed Ismail Mohamed Riyath, Narayanage Jayantha Dewasiri, Mohamed Abdul Majeed Mohamed Siraju, Athambawa Jahfer and Kiran Sood
Purpose: This study investigates internal/own shock in the domestic market and three external volatility spillovers from India, the UK, and the USA to the Sri Lanka stock market…
Abstract
Purpose: This study investigates internal/own shock in the domestic market and three external volatility spillovers from India, the UK, and the USA to the Sri Lanka stock market.
Need for the Study: The external market’s internal/own shocks and volatility spillovers influence portfolio choices in domestic stock market returns. Hence, it is required to investigate the internal shock in the domestic market and the external volatility spillovers from other countries.
Methodology: This study employs a quantitative method using ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model. All Share Price Index (ASPI) is the proxy for the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) stock return. It uses daily time-series data from 1st April 2010 to 21st June 2023.
Findings: The findings revealed that internal/own and external shocks substantially impact the stock price volatility in CSE. Significant volatility clusters and persistence with extended memory in ASPI confirm internal/own shock in the market. Furthermore, CSE receives significant volatility shock from the USA, confirming external shock. This study’s findings highlight the importance of considering internal and external shocks in portfolio decision-making.
Practical Implications: Understanding the influence of internal shocks helps investors manage their portfolios and adapt to market volatility. Recognising significant volatility spillovers from external markets, especially the USA, informs diversification strategies. From a policy standpoint, the study emphasises the need for robust regulations and risk management measures to address shocks in domestic and global markets. This study adds value to the literature by assessing the sources of volatility shocks in the CSE, employing the ARMA-GARCH, a sophisticated econometrics model, to capture stock returns volatility, enhancing understanding of the CSE’s volatility dynamics.
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To estimate the volatility of exchange and stock markets and examine its spillover within and across the member countries of BRICS during COVID-19 and the conflict between Russia…
Abstract
Purpose
To estimate the volatility of exchange and stock markets and examine its spillover within and across the member countries of BRICS during COVID-19 and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Design/methodology/approach
The study utilizes the “dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH)” approach of Gabauer (2020). The volatility of the markets is calculated following the approach of Parkinson (1980). The sample dataset comprises the daily volatility of the stock and exchange markets for 35 months, from November 2019 to September 2022.
Findings
The study confirms the existence of contagion effects among member countries. Volatility spillover between exchange and stock markets is low within the country but substantial across borders. Russian contribution increased significantly during the conflict with Ukraine, and other countries also witnessed a surge in the spillover index during the pandemic and war.
Research limitations/implications
It adds to the body of literature by emphasizing the necessity of comprehending the economies' behavior and interdependence. Offers insightful information to decision-makers who must be more watchful regarding the financial crisis and its regional spillover.
Originality/value
The study is the first to explore the contagion of volatility among the BRICS countries during the two biggest crisis periods of the decade.
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Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput, Amjad Ali Memon, Tariq Aziz Siyal and Namarta Kumari Bajaj
This paper aims to test for volatility spillovers among Islamic stock markets with the exogenous impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) to check the risk transmission among Saudi…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to test for volatility spillovers among Islamic stock markets with the exogenous impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) to check the risk transmission among Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Indonesia and Turkey. Researchers test for both the symmetric and asymmetric risk transmission.
Design/methodology/approach
For the symmetric response of volatility, the study uses simple generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) and for the asymmetric response of volatility with the exogenous impact of GPR, the exponential GARCH models have been adopted.
Findings
The results suggest spillover effects exist from Turkey to Saudi Arabia, Indonesia to Malaysia and Saudi Arabia and Malaysia to Indonesia. The findings of volatility spillover from GPR to sample countries suggest that only Malaysia and Indonesia experience volatility spillovers from GPR.
Research limitations/implications
The present study is limited to the context of four countries and Islamic equities; the study contributes to the literature on volatility spillover, Islamic finance, GPR and asset pricing.
Practical implications
This study contributes to individual, institutional investors’ policymakers’ knowledge in determining security prices, trading plans, investment hedging and policy regulation.
Social implications
The extant literature disregards the GPR index to examine the volatility spillover effects among Islamic stock markets, which allow researchers to justify the mechanism of risk transmission due to GPR across the Islamic stock market.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first research of its type to look at volatility spillover and GPR transmission in Islamic stock markets.
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Walid Mensi, Ramzi Nekhili, Xuan Vinh Vo and Sang Hoon Kang
This paper examines dynamic return spillovers and connectedness networks among international stock exchange markets. The authors account for asymmetry by distinguishing between…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper examines dynamic return spillovers and connectedness networks among international stock exchange markets. The authors account for asymmetry by distinguishing between positive and negative returns.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper employs the spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) to measure the volatility spillover index for total, positive and negative volatility.
Findings
The results show time-varying and asymmetric volatility spillovers among the stock markets under investigation. During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, bad volatility spillovers are more pronounced and dominated over good volatility spillovers, indicating contagion effects.
Originality/value
The presence of confirmed COVID-19 cases positively (negatively) affects the good and bad spillovers under low and intermediate (upper) quantiles. Both types of spillovers at various quantiles agree also influenced by the number of COVID-19 deaths.
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Hongjun Zeng and Abdullahi D. Ahmed
This paper aims to provide new perspectives on the integration of East Asian stock markets and the dynamic volatility transmission to the Bitcoin market utilising daily data from…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to provide new perspectives on the integration of East Asian stock markets and the dynamic volatility transmission to the Bitcoin market utilising daily data from 2014 to 2020.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors undertake comprehensive analyses of the dependency dynamics, systemic risk and volatility spillover between major East Asian stock and Bitcoin markets. The authors employ a vine-copula-CoVaR framework and a VAR-BEKK-GARCH method with a Wald test.
Findings
(a) With exception of KS11 and N225; HSI and SSE; HSI and KS11, which have moderate dependence, dependencies among other markets are low. In terms of tail risk, the upper tail risk is more significant in capturing strong common variation. (b) Two-way and asymmetric risk spillover effects exist in all markets. The Hong Kong and Japanese stock markets have significant risk spillovers to other markets, and quite notably, the Chinese stock market is the largest recipient of systemic risk. However, the authors observe a more significant risk spillover from the Chinese stock market to the Bitcoin market. (c) The VAR-BEKK-GARCH results confirm that the Korean market is a significant emitter of volatility spillovers. The Bitcoin market does provide diversification benefits. Interestingly, the Chinese stock market has an intriguing relationship with Bitcoin. (d) An increase in spillovers in East Asia boosts spillovers to Bitcoin, but there is no intuitive effect of Bitcoin spillovers on East Asian spillovers.
Originality/value
For the first time, the authors examine the dynamic linkage between Bitcoin and the major East Asian stock markets.
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Yang Gao, Wanqi Zheng and Yaojun Wang
This study aims to explore the risk spillover effects among different sectors of the Chinese stock market after the outbreak of COVID-19 from both Internet sentiment and price…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to explore the risk spillover effects among different sectors of the Chinese stock market after the outbreak of COVID-19 from both Internet sentiment and price fluctuations.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors develop four indicators used for risk contagion analysis, including Internet investors and news sentiments constructed by the FinBERT model, together with realized and jump volatilities yielded by high-frequency data. The authors also apply the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model-based and the tail-based connectedness framework to investigate the interdependence of tail risk during catastrophic events.
Findings
The empirical analysis provides meaningful results related to the COVID-19 pandemic, stock market conditions and tail behavior. The results show that after the outbreak of COVID-19, the connectivity between risk spillovers in China's stock market has grown, indicating the increased instability of the connected system and enhanced connectivity in the tail. The changes in network structure during COVID-19 pandemic are not only reflected by the increased spillover connectivity but also by the closer relationships between some industries. The authors also found that major public events could significantly impact total connectedness. In addition, spillovers and network structures vary with market conditions and tend to exhibit a highly connected network structure during extreme market status.
Originality/value
The results confirm the connectivity between sentiments and volatilities spillovers in China's stock market, especially in the tails. The conclusion further expands the practical application and theoretical framework of behavioral finance and also lays a theoretical basis for investors to focus on the practical application of volatility prediction and risk management across stock sectors.
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Shailesh Rastogi and Jagjeevan Kanoujiya
This study aims to analyze the volatility spillover effects of crude oil, gold price, interest rate (yield) and the exchange rate (USD (United States Dollar)/INR (Indian National…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to analyze the volatility spillover effects of crude oil, gold price, interest rate (yield) and the exchange rate (USD (United States Dollar)/INR (Indian National Rupee)) on inflation volatility in India.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses the multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models (Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner [BEKK]-GARCH and dynamic conditional correlation [DCC]-GARCH) to examine the volatility spillover effect of macroeconomic indicators and strategic commodities on inflation in India. The monthly data are collected from January 2000 till December 2020 for the crude oil price, gold price, interest rate (5-year Indian bond yield), exchange rate (USD/INR) and inflation (wholesale price index [WPI] and consumer price index [CPI]).
Findings
In BEKK-GARCH, the results reveal that crude oil price volatility has a long time spillover effect on inflation (WPI). Furthermore, no significant short-term volatility effect exists from crude oil market to inflation (WPI). However, the short-term volatility effect exists from crude oil to inflation while considering CPI as inflation. Gold price volatility has a bidirectional and negative spillover effect on inflation in the case of WPI. However, there is no price volatility spillover effect from gold to inflation in the case of CPI. The price volatility in the exchange rate also has a negative spillover effect on inflation (but only on CPI). Furthermore, volatility of interest rates has no spillover effect on inflation in WPI or CPI. In DCC-GARCH, a short-term volatility impact from all four macroeconomic indicators to inflation is found. Only crude oil and exchange rate have long-term volatility effect on inflation (CPI).
Practical implications
In an economy, inflation management is an essential task. The findings of the current study can be beneficial in this endeavor. The knowledge of the volatility spillover effect of all the four markets undertaken in the study can be significantly helpful in inflation management, especially for inflation-targeting policy.
Originality/value
It is observed that no other study has addressed this issue. We do not find any other research which studies the volatility spillover effect of gold, crude oil, interest rate and exchange rate on the inflation volatility. The current study is novel with a significant contribution to the vast knowledge in this context.
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Athanasios Tsagkanos, Dimitrios Koumanakos and Michalis Pavlakis
The purpose of this study is to examine the transmission of volatility between business confidence index and stock market indices in Greece. The country remains the riskiest…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to examine the transmission of volatility between business confidence index and stock market indices in Greece. The country remains the riskiest project in European Union (EU) and previous studies fail to reach an accurate conclusion regarding the direction of this transmission.
Design/methodology/approach
The study covers the period from January 2013 to August 2022 in monthly basis where important economic events occur. Considering that these economic events derive strong volatility moments, the authors adopt a new methodology that measures the transmission of volatility with higher precision. This is the generalized spillover analysis by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012).
Findings
The results indicate that Business Confidence Index (BCI) is the main receiver of volatility spillovers in Greece under all aspects of the used methodology. The specificity of the results shows that business activity through a green growth model is what drives investor confidence and then their activities.
Originality/value
Although a handful of studies have considered the transmission of volatility between BCI and stock market indices, this study contributes in several ways. This study focuses on one country (Greece), avoiding the dispersion of the results from the examination of the relationship in several countries. The used country remains the riskiest project in EU even nowadays, while other studies fail to confirm the main direction of volatility spillovers from business confidence to stock returns. This study covers a period that is ignored by previous studies and includes important economic events. In addition, considering that these economic events derive strong volatility moments, a new methodology is adopted in this field of research that measures the transmission of volatility with higher accuracy.
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Oumayma Gharbi, Yousra Trichilli and Mouna Boujelbéne
The main objective of this paper is to analyze the dynamic volatility spillovers between the investor's behavioral biases, the macroeconomic instability factors and the value at…
Abstract
Purpose
The main objective of this paper is to analyze the dynamic volatility spillovers between the investor's behavioral biases, the macroeconomic instability factors and the value at risk of the US Fintech stock market before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors used the methodologies proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and the wavelet approach.
Findings
The wavelet coherence results show that during the COVID-19 period, there was a strong co-movement among value at risk and each selected variables in the medium-run and the long-run scales. Diebold and Yilmaz's (2012) method proved that the total connectedness index raised significantly during the COVID-19 period. Moreover, the overconfidence bias and the financial stress index are the net transmitters, while the value at risk and herding behavior variables are the net receivers.
Research limitations/implications
This study offers some important implications for investors and policymakers to explain the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the risk of Fintech industry.
Practical implications
The study findings might be useful for investors to better understand the time–frequency connectedness and the volatility spillover effects in the context of COVID-19 pandemic. Future research may deal with investors' ability of constructing portfolios with another alternative index like cryptocurrencies which seems to be a safer investment.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study that relies on the continuous wavelet decomposition technique and spillover volatility to examine the connectedness between investor behavioral biases, uncertainty factors, and Value at Risk of US Fintech stock markets, while taking into account the recent COVID-19 pandemic.
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The authors attempt to explore fat tails and network interlinkages of oil prices and the six largest cryptocurrencies from 1st January 2018 and 1st August 2021. The authors also…
Abstract
Purpose
The authors attempt to explore fat tails and network interlinkages of oil prices and the six largest cryptocurrencies from 1st January 2018 and 1st August 2021. The authors also investigate the influences of the COVID-19 pandemic on these network interlinkages.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors follow Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) to calculate the spillover index the dynamic correlation coefficient model firstly employed by Engle (2002) to study how the volatility of oil prices are transmitted to those of cryptocurrency return and liquidity and vice versa.
Findings
The results confirm the presence of time-varying interlinkages between the volatilities of the oil market and the cryptocurrency market. Notably, uncertain events like the COVID-19 health crisis significantly influence the time-varying interlinkages they augment dramatically during the COVID-19 health crisis. The turbulence of the cryptocurrency market, especially from Bitcoin and Ethereum, significantly impacts those of the oil market. The role of the oil market in transmitting the effect of respective shocks to the cryptocurrency market, on the other hand, is time-varying, which is only reported when the COVID-19 pandemic first appeared at the beginning of 2020. The turbulence of the cryptocurrency market in the system is greatly explained by themself rather than a transmission mechanism of shocks to the oil market.
Practical implications
Insightful knowledge about key antecedents of contagion among these markets also help policymakers design adequate policies to reduce these markets' vulnerabilities and minimize the spread of risk or uncertainty across these markets.
Originality/value
The most significant benefit of the approach is how simple it is to calculate net pairwise connectivity, which identifies transmission channels between these commodity and financial markets. The authors are also the first to use the quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimator to estimate the DCC model to measure the volatility spillover index to reflect the level of interdependence between the different markets. By using a daily and up to date database, the authors can observe the role of each market in transmitting and receiving the shocks between two different sub-periods: (1) before and (2) during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis.
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