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Article
Publication date: 1 January 2012

Omid Sabbaghi

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the return performance of different investment strategies in the hedge fund sector, with a particular emphasis on the recent US…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the return performance of different investment strategies in the hedge fund sector, with a particular emphasis on the recent US financial crisis of 2007‐2010. Additionally, the paper aims to investigate the comovement of hedge fund index returns.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper identifies broad hedge fund investment strategies using data from the Dow Jones Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Database. It examines the return comovement using the cross‐sectional volatility, covariance, and correlation metrics proposed in Adrian (2007). In addition, the paper examines whether correlations and covariance are important determinants of future volatility via traditional time‐series regressions.

Findings

The paper finds that the majority of the broad hedge fund investment strategies incurred record level losses and gains during the 2007‐2010 period. In addition, it finds that the crisis period was preceded by high correlations, attributed primarily to a rise in cross‐sectional hedge fund covariances. However, during the crisis period, a decrease in average correlations, stemming from an increase in hedge fund volatility, is documented. The time‐series regressions are supportive of a strong relationship between cross‐sectional covariances and subsequent volatility, suggesting that systemic risk occurs in the hedge fund sector when returns move significantly in dollar terms.

Originality/value

This study is one of the first investigations that focus on the comovement and volatility of hedge fund index returns during the US financial crisis of 2007‐2010.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 38 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 February 2013

George Milunovich and Stefan Trück

The purpose of this paper is to investigate contagion between real estate investment trusts (REITs) within and across three geographical regions: North America, Europe and…

1874

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate contagion between real estate investment trusts (REITs) within and across three geographical regions: North America, Europe and Asia‐Pacific. The paper also examines excess comovement between the considered national REIT markets on the one hand, and broad equity indices on the other. In particular, the authors are interested in contagion between the considered markets during the 2007‐2009 GFC period in comparison to the entire 2004‐2011 sample period.

Design/methodology/approach

Using an international factor pricing framework similar to Bekaert, Harvey and Ng, the paper defines contagion as excess comovement between two financial markets, after removing the effects of the underlying economic fundamentals, i.e. risk factors, and time‐changing volatility. Controlling for economic factors is important for distinguishing between pure contagion and information spillovers, which may transmit through existing economic channels. The authors then analyse excess correlations between the derived standardized residuals, for REITS and equity markets in order to investigate excess comovement between the indices during the whole sample and GFC period.

Findings

The paper finds no evidence of excess comovement between the considered REIT and equity indices during non‐crisis sample intervals. However, the paper finds contagion between several national REITs and regional or global equity markets during the GFC period. The paper reports statistically significant excess correlations between national REITs and regional and world real estate markets during the entire sample period, while there is only limited evidence to suggest that the correlation amongst REIT markets has increased during the GFC period. The paper concludes that a similar degree of dependence persisted among national REIT markets over the crisis and non‐crisis sample periods for most markets.

Originality/value

Despite the ongoing debate on contagion in financial markets, there is only a small body of literature investigating contagion specifically for property or real estate markets. This is even more surprising, since the GFC originated from a subprime mortgage crisis and was, therefore, heavily related to real estate. The paper extends the literature by testing for contagion between REITs considering eleven national markets across three geographical regions. In contrast, the existing literature is typically constrained to a significantly smaller number of markets. The paper also explicitly takes into account the impact of the recent GFC, and tests for contagion over this period.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 31 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 February 2022

Sitara Karim and Muhammad Abubakr Naeem

This study aims to examine the connectedness among green, Islamic and conventional financial markets from December 2008 to May 2021. Moreover, the impact of global factors on the…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the connectedness among green, Islamic and conventional financial markets from December 2008 to May 2021. Moreover, the impact of global factors on the connectedness of given financial markets is also observed.

Design/methodology/approach

This study first employed the time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VAR) technique to explore the connectedness of markets. Second, This study utilized the wavelet coherence analysis to test the time-frequency impact of global factors in terms of implied volatilities of stock, oil, gold, currency and bond on the connectedness across financial markets.

Findings

This study finds Islamic stocks, sustainability index and S&P500 composite index are the net transmitters, whereas Sukuk, commodity index, bond market, clean energy and green bonds are the net recipient of spillovers. Time-varying features of green, Islamic and conventional financial markets are evident in system-wide connectedness. This study further evidenced that global factors drive the connectedness of financial markets, particularly during stressful times.

Practical implications

The findings of this study furnish significant implications for policymakers, regulatory authorities, investors, financial market participants and portfolio managers in terms of carefully assessing the unique characteristics offered by each financial market in terms of risk mitigation and diversifying the portfolios.

Originality/value

Using a portfolio of green, Islamic and conventional financial markets, the uniqueness of this study lies in the examination of the connectedness of these markets by deploying the TVP-VAR technique. In addition, wavelet analysis offers a significant contribution in terms of global factors driving the connectedness of green, Islamic and conventional markets.

Details

International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. 18 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 October 2021

Kim Hiang Liow and Jeongseop Song

With growing interdependence between financial markets, the goal of this paper is to examine the dynamic interdependence between corporate equity and public real estate markets…

119

Abstract

Purpose

With growing interdependence between financial markets, the goal of this paper is to examine the dynamic interdependence between corporate equity and public real estate markets for the USA and a select group of seven European developed economies under a cross-country framework in crisis and boom market conditions. Dynamic interdependence is related to four measures of market linkages of “correlation, spillover, connectedness and causality”.

Design/methodology/approach

This study adopts a four-step investigation. The authors first estimate “time-varying variance–covariance spillovers and implied correlations” modeled with the bivariate BEKK-MGARCH methods. Second, the methods of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014) measure the conditional volatility spillover-connectedness effects across the corporate equity and public real estate markets based on a decomposition of the forecast error variance. Third, the authors implement nonlinear bivariate and multivariate causality tests to understand the lead-lag dynamics of the two asset markets' returns, volatilities and net directional volatility connectedness across different sample periods. Finally, the authors conclude the study by providing a portfolio hedging analysis.

Findings

The authors find that corporate equity and public real estate are moderately interdependent to the extent that their diversification benefits increases in the longer term. Moreover, the authors find increased corporate equity-public real estate causal dependence of the market groups of the European and international portfolios during the GFC and INTERCRISIS periods. The nonlinear causality test findings indicate that the joint information of asset markets can be a useful source of prediction for future innovation of market risks. Additionally, policy makers may also be able to employ conditional volatility and volatility connectedness as two other measures to manage market stability in the cross-asset market dependence during highly volatile periods.

Research limitations/implications

One major take away from this academic research is since international portfolio investors are not only concerned the long-term price relationship but also the correlation structure and volatility spillover-connectedness, the conditional BEKK modeling, generalized risk connectedness analysis and nonlinear causal dependence explorations from this multi-country study can shed fresh light on the nature of market interdependence and magnitude of volatility connectedness effects in a multi-portfolio framework.

Practical implications

The hedging performance analysis for portfolio diversification and risk management indicates that industrial stocks (“pure” equities) are valuable assets that can improve the hedging performance of a well-diversified corporate equity-public real estate portfolio during crisis periods. For policymakers, the findings provide important information about the nature of causal links and predictability during the crisis and asset-market boom periods. They can then equip with this information to manage and coordinate market stability in cross corporate equity-real estate relationships effectively.

Originality/value

Although traditional research has in general reported at least a moderate degree of relationship between the two asset markets, investors' knowledge of stock-public real estate market linkage is somewhat inadequate and confine mostly to broad stocks (i.e. stocks that are exposed to public real estate influence) in a single-country context. In this paper, the authors examine the interdependence dynamics in a multi-country (multi-portfolio) context. A clear understanding their changing market relationships in a multi-country context is of crucial importance for portfolio investors, financial institutions and policy makers. Moreover, since the authors use an orthogonal stock market index, the authors allow global investors to understand the potential diversification benefits from stock markets that are beyond the public real estate market under different market conditions.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 15 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 30 November 2011

Diep Duong and Norman R. Swanson

The topic of volatility measurement and estimation is central to financial and more generally time-series econometrics. In this chapter, we begin by surveying models of volatility

Abstract

The topic of volatility measurement and estimation is central to financial and more generally time-series econometrics. In this chapter, we begin by surveying models of volatility, both discrete and continuous, and then we summarize some selected empirical findings from the literature. In particular, in the first sections of this chapter, we discuss important developments in volatility models, with focus on time-varying and stochastic volatility as well as nonparametric volatility estimation. The models discussed share the common feature that volatilities are unobserved and belong to the class of missing variables. We then provide empirical evidence on “small” and “large” jumps from the perspective of their contribution to overall realized variation, using high-frequency price return data on 25 stocks in the DOW 30. Our “small” and “large” jump variations are constructed at three truncation levels, using extant methodology of Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2006), Andersen, Bollerslev, and Diebold (2007), and Aït-Sahalia and Jacod (2009a, 2009b, 2009c). Evidence of jumps is found in around 22.8% of the days during the 1993–2000 period, much higher than the corresponding figure of 9.4% during the 2001–2008 period. Although the overall role of jumps is lessening, the role of large jumps has not decreased, and indeed, the relative role of large jumps, as a proportion of overall jumps, has actually increased in the 2000s.

Details

Missing Data Methods: Time-Series Methods and Applications
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78052-526-6

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 April 2023

Sadia Shafiq, Saiqa Saddiqa Qureshi and Muhammad Akbar

This paper aims to examine whether the volatility of returns in commodity (gold, oil), bond and forex markets is related over time to the volatility of returns in equity markets…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine whether the volatility of returns in commodity (gold, oil), bond and forex markets is related over time to the volatility of returns in equity markets of Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey and Vietnam. In addition, the authors analyze the integration of the commodity, bond, forex and equity markets across these markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The dynamic conditional correlation GARCH (DCC-GARCH) model is used to capture the time-varying conditional correlation among markets. The authors use daily data of stock prices, oil prices, gold prices, exchange rates and 10 years' bond yields of the six countries from Datastream and investing.com from January 2001 to April 2021.

Findings

Findings reveal that the parameters of dynamic correlation are statistically significant which indicates the importance of time-varying co-movements. Estimation of the DCC-GARCH model suggests that the stock market is significantly correlated with bond, forex, gold and oil markets in all six countries.

Practical implications

This study has practical implications for policymakers and investment professionals. A better understanding of dynamic linkages among the markets would help in constructing effective hedging and portfolio diversification strategies. Policy makers can get insight to build proper strategies in order to insulate the economy from factors that cause volatility.

Originality/value

Several studies have investigated the linkage between commodity and stock markets and the volatility spillover effect, but very little attention is given to study the interrelationship between groups of market segments of different economies. No study has comparatively examined the dynamic relationship of multiple markets of a group of emerging countries simultaneously.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 16 August 2014

Michael Williams

This chapter examines the increased levels of cross-asset price comovement and its relationship with the recent rounds of “extraordinary intervention” from the US Federal Reserve…

Abstract

This chapter examines the increased levels of cross-asset price comovement and its relationship with the recent rounds of “extraordinary intervention” from the US Federal Reserve. The results show that, even after controlling for the preceding financial crisis, asset return volatility, investor risk perceptions, and channels of monetary stimulus, historically unrelated financial asset returns experienced abnormal changes in their conditional correlations. The strength of these cross-asset correlations is directly linked to periods of Federal Reserve interventions yet disappear when the interventions were (in fact or were perceived to be) withdrawn. Despite being studied extensively in the academic literature, no traditional intervention channels can explain the changes in cross-comovement. It is proposed that the Fed’s extraordinary stimulus caused investors to use Fed announcements as a common, low-cost information source on which they used to make common portfolio-allocation decisions. The changes in comovement during the intervention period may have reduced investor welfare for those with longer-horizon allocation strategies, those not prepared for the eventual ending of the stimulus, and for underfunded liability-optimizing portfolio managers (e.g., state pension funds).

Details

International Financial Markets
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78190-312-4

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 6 January 2016

Martin Belvisi, Riccardo Pianeti and Giovanni Urga

We propose a novel dynamic factor model to characterise comovements between returns on securities from different asset classes from different countries. We apply a…

Abstract

We propose a novel dynamic factor model to characterise comovements between returns on securities from different asset classes from different countries. We apply a global-class-country latent factor model and allow time-varying loadings. We are able to separate contagion (asset exposure driven) and excess interdependence (factor volatility driven). Using data from 1999 to 2012, we find evidence of contagion from the US stock market during the 2007–2009 financial crisis, and of excess interdependence during the European debt crisis from May 2010 onwards. Neither contagion nor excess interdependence is found when the average measure of model implied comovements is used.

Details

Dynamic Factor Models
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78560-353-2

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 8 March 2011

James Yetman

Standard measures of business cycle comovement, based on correlation coefficients, are very sensitive to the phase of the business cycle, as well as to regional crises. Adjusting…

Abstract

Standard measures of business cycle comovement, based on correlation coefficients, are very sensitive to the phase of the business cycle, as well as to regional crises. Adjusting for these factors overturns the empirical result that Asia-Pacific economies are becoming decoupled from the United States over time. An alternative, intuitive, measure of business cycle comovement is proposed, based on the difference between output growth rates adjusted for its long-run average. The new measure suggests that Asia-Pacific economies are becoming more strongly coupled with the United States over time.

Details

The Evolving Role of Asia in Global Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-85724-745-2

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 January 2010

Mohamed El Hedi Arouri and Duc Khuong Nguyen

The purpose of this paper is to propose an empirical procedure for examining the time‐varying features of cross‐market correlations in selected Gulf stock markets.

1179

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to propose an empirical procedure for examining the time‐varying features of cross‐market correlations in selected Gulf stock markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper directly infers the cross‐market linkages from the stock data using a multivariate dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model (DCC‐GARCH). The paper attempts to date the structural breaks in the time‐paths of the conditional correlation indices to investigate whether the cross‐market comovement encompasses significant changes in nature or not.

Findings

Conditional cross‐market correlations between studied markets are shown to be time‐varying, past‐dependent and subject to structural breaks. However, the comovements are still small within the Gulf region and insignificant between the Gulf stock markets and the world market.

Research limitations/implications

Even though the paper attempted to relate the observed changes in market linkages to major economic and political events that the Gulf region experienced during the sample period, a more careful, in‐depth analysis is needed since the primary objectives of this paper consist only of measuring stock market comovements and detecting their possible structure changes.

Practical implications

For global investors, there is still room for international and regional diversification in Gulf markets, given the low degree of comovements documented in the study.

Originality/value

The application of the DCC‐GARCH model and structural change test in a linear framework appears to be suitable for studying the time‐varying properties of cross‐market linkages between markets in the Gulf region. It also provides information about the degree of financial integration of the studied markets with the world stock market through an analysis of the conditional correlation coefficients.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 36 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

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