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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 April 2024

Qingmei Tan, Muhammad Haroon Rasheed and Muhammad Shahid Rasheed

Despite its devastating nature, the COVID-19 pandemic has also catalyzed a substantial surge in the adoption and integration of technological tools within economies, exerting a…

Abstract

Purpose

Despite its devastating nature, the COVID-19 pandemic has also catalyzed a substantial surge in the adoption and integration of technological tools within economies, exerting a profound influence on the dissemination of information among participants in stock markets. Consequently, this present study delves into the ramifications of post-pandemic dynamics on stock market behavior. It also examines the relationship between investors' sentiments, underlying behavioral drivers and their collective impact on global stock markets.

Design/methodology/approach

Drawing upon data spanning from 2012 to 2023 and encompassing major world indices classified by Morgan Stanley Capital International’s (MSCI) market and regional taxonomy, this study employs a threshold regression model. This model effectively distinguishes the thresholds within these influential factors. To evaluate the statistical significance of variances across these thresholds, a Wald coefficient analysis was applied.

Findings

The empirical results highlighted the substantive role that investors' sentiments and behavioral determinants play in shaping the predictability of returns on a global scale. However, their influence on developed economies and the continents of America appears comparatively lower compared with the Asia–Pacific markets. Similarly, the regions characterized by a more pronounced influence of behavioral factors seem to reduce their reliance on these factors in the post-pandemic landscape and vice versa. Interestingly, the post COVID-19 technological advancements also appear to exert a lesser impact on developed nations.

Originality/value

This study pioneers the investigation of these contextual dissimilarities, thereby charting new avenues for subsequent research studies. These insights shed valuable light on the contextualized nexus between technology, societal dynamics, behavioral biases and their collective impact on stock markets. Furthermore, the study's revelations offer a unique vantage point for addressing market inefficiencies by pinpointing the pivotal factors driving such behavioral patterns.

Details

China Accounting and Finance Review, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1029-807X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 April 2024

Daniel Werner Lima Souza de Almeida, Tabajara Pimenta Júnior, Luiz Eduardo Gaio and Fabiano Guasti Lima

This study aims to evaluate the presence of abnormal returns due to stock splits or reverse stock splits in the Brazilian capital market context.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to evaluate the presence of abnormal returns due to stock splits or reverse stock splits in the Brazilian capital market context.

Design/methodology/approach

The event study technique was used on data from 518 events that occurred in a 30-year period (1987–2016), comprising 167 stock splits and 351 reverse stock splits.

Findings

The results revealed the occurrence of abnormal returns around the time the shares began trading stock splits or reverse stock splits at a statistical significance level of 5%. The main conclusion is that stock split and reverse stock split operations represent opportunities for extraordinary gains and may serve as a reference for investment strategies in the Brazilian stock market.

Originality/value

This study innovates by including reverse stock splits, as the existing literature focuses on stock splits, and by testing two distinct “zero” dates that of the ordinary general meeting that approved the share alteration and the “ex” date of the alteration, when the shares were effectively traded, reverse split or split.

Details

Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2077-1886

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 February 2024

Gerasimos Rompotis

I seek to identify whether cash flow management can affect the performance and risk of the Greek listed companies.

Abstract

Purpose

I seek to identify whether cash flow management can affect the performance and risk of the Greek listed companies.

Design/methodology/approach

This study examines the relationship of cash flow management with performance and risk, using a sample of 80 non-financial companies listed in the Athens Exchange. The study covers the period 2018–2022, and panel data analysis is applied. Both financial performance and stock return are taken into consideration, while risk concerns the volatility of the companies’ share prices. The various explanatory variables used include the net cash flow, free cash flow, cash conversion cycle days, cash flow from operating activities, cash flow from investing activities, cash flow from financing activities, inventory days, customer days and supplier days.

Findings

The empirical results provide evidence of a positive relationship between financial performance and net cash flow and free cash flow. In addition, operating cash flow is positively related to financial performance. The opposite is the case for investing and financing cash flow. Finally, some evidence of a negative relationship between financial performance and inventory and customer days is provided too. On the other hand, stock return and risk are not related to the cash flow management variables at all.

Originality/value

To the best of my knowledge, this is one of the few studies to examine the relationship of cash flow management with performance and risk, using data from the Greek stock market. The results can form an effective selection tool for investors seeking Greek companies with the highest financial performance potential, which may reward them with higher dividends.

Details

EuroMed Journal of Business, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1450-2194

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 November 2023

Ahmed W. Elroukh

This paper aims to investigate the impact of banning cryptocurrencies on stock markets.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the impact of banning cryptocurrencies on stock markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper uses an event study approach and data from stock market indices in nine countries that imposed a ban. It uses the constant mean model and the market model, with two different benchmarks for global returns, to analyze if any of the stock indices show abnormal returns on or around the announcement of a cryptocurrency ban.

Findings

The analysis shows that banning cryptocurrencies did not affect the returns of stock markets in any of the countries studied, indicating that the cryptocurrency market and stock markets are decoupled from each other, or the ban was not effectively implemented.

Originality/value

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this paper is the first to explore the potential spillover effect of a cryptocurrency ban on stock markets. It also bridges two strands of literature: the relationship between cryptocurrencies and traditional assets, and the impact of cryptocurrency regulation on their returns.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 13 October 2023

Jessica Paule-Vianez, Carmen Orden-Cruz, Camilo Prado-Román and Raúl Gómez-Martínez

This study aims to analyse the effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on the return of growth/value and small/large-cap stocks during expansionary and recessionary periods…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to analyse the effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on the return of growth/value and small/large-cap stocks during expansionary and recessionary periods across a conditional distribution.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors selected a sample covering the period between 01/1995–05/2021. Quantile regressions were applied to the EPU and Russell indices. Business cycles were established following the NBER.

Findings

The results show that EPU has a negative effect on stocks with the intensity of the effect depending on the stock's profile. Small-cap and growth stocks were found to be most sensitive to EPU, especially during recessions. The negative effect is moderated by the economic cycle but is progressively diluted at the lower tail of the stock return distribution.

Practical implications

The findings shed more light on investment strategies for growth/value investors that pursue opportunities arising from a changing economic cycle.

Originality/value

This study makes the following contributions: (1) explores the impact of EPU on the return of different stocks across a conditional distribution, and (2) provides evidence on how the economic cycle influences EPU impact on growth/value stocks and small/large stocks.

研究目的

:本研究擬分析跨條件分佈、以及於擴張期和衰退期,經濟政策不確定性對成長型股票/價值股和小盤股/大型股的收益的影響。

研究設計/方法/理念

我們選擇了涵蓋1995年1月與2021年5月期間的樣本進行研究。我們於經濟政策不確定性指數和羅素指數上採用分位數迴歸法進行研究; 並跟隨著美國國家經濟研究局,建立了多個經濟週期。

研究結果

研究結果顯示,經濟政策不確定性對股票是有負面影響的,而影響的強度則視乎股票的投資組合而定。我們發現,小盤股和成長型股票對經濟政策不確定性是非常敏感的,尤其是在經濟衰退期間。這負面影響會被經濟週期緩和,唯這緩和作用卻會在股票收益的低尾處逐漸減輕。

實務方面的啟示

研究結果使我們更容易理解為尋找因經濟週期改變而衍生的機會的增長/價值投資者所提供的投資策略。

研究的原創性/價值

本研究有以下的貢獻:(一) 、 探究了經濟政策不確定性對跨條件分佈、不同的股票收益的影響; (二) 、為經濟週期會如何左右經濟政策不確定性對成長型股票/價值股和小盤股/大型股的影響,提供了證據。

Details

European Journal of Management and Business Economics, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2444-8451

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 September 2023

Mirza Muhammad Naseer, Yongsheng Guo and Xiaoxian Zhu

This study aims to examine the relationship between environmental, social and governance (ESG) disclosure, firm risk and stock market returns within the Chinese energy sector…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the relationship between environmental, social and governance (ESG) disclosure, firm risk and stock market returns within the Chinese energy sector. Using a variety of econometric techniques, the study seeks to uncover the impact of ESG disclosure on risk mitigation and its influence on stock market performance.

Design/methodology/approach

Benchmark regression models were used to explore the associations between ESG disclosure, firm risk and stock returns. To address potential endogeneity, a generalised method of moments estimator is used. Quantile regression was used for robustness analysis.

Findings

The study reveals a negative relationship between ESG disclosure and firm risk, indicating that companies with greater ESG disclosure tend to experience reduced risk exposure. In addition, a positive association is observed between ESG disclosure and stock market returns, suggesting that companies with more comprehensive ESG disclosure practices tend to perform better in the stock market.

Research limitations/implications

This study implies that investors appreciate sustainable investment and incorporate ESG practices and disclosure in decision-making. Policymakers can promote transparent ESG reporting through regulatory frameworks, fostering sustainable practices in the energy sector.

Originality/value

Despite the mounting concerns over carbon dioxide emissions and the energy industry’s environmental footprint, this study pioneers a comprehensive analysis of ESG disclosure within this critical sector. Delving into the relationship of ESG practices, firm risk and market returns, this research uniquely examines both risk mitigation and return enhancement, shedding new light on sustainable strategies in the energy domain.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 August 2023

Enas Hendawy, David G. McMillan, Zaki M. Sakr and Tamer Mohamed Shahwan

This paper aims to introduce a new perspective on long-term stock return predictability by focusing on the relative (individual and hybrid) informative power of a wide range of…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to introduce a new perspective on long-term stock return predictability by focusing on the relative (individual and hybrid) informative power of a wide range of accounting (firm-related), technical and macroeconomic factors while considering the past performance of the stocks using machine learning algorithms.

Design/methodology/approach

The sample includes a panel data set of 94 non-financial firms listed in Egyptian Exchange 100 index from 2014: Q1 to 2019: Q4. Relativity has been investigated by comparing relevant factors’ individual and combined informative power and differentiating between losers and winners based on historical stock returns. To predict the quarterly stock returns, Gaussian process regression (GPR) has been used. The robustness of the results is examined through the out-of-sample test. This study also uses linear regression (LR) as a benchmark model.

Findings

The past performance and the presence of other predictors influence the informative power of relevant factors and hence their predictive ability. The out-of-sample results show a trade-off between GPR and LR with proven superiority to GPR in limited experiments. The individual informative power outperforms the hybrid power, in which macroeconomic indicators outperform the remaining sets of indicators for losers, while winners show mixed results in terms of various performance evaluation metrics. Prediction accuracy is generally higher for losers than for winners.

Practical implications

This study provides interesting insight into the dynamic nature of the predictor variables in terms of stock return predictability. Hence, this study also deepens the understanding of asset pricing in a way that directly contributes to practitioners’ portfolio diversification strategies.

Originality/value

In concern of the chaos of factors in the literature and its accompanying misleading conclusions, this study takes another look at the approach that studies stock return predictability. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study in the Egyptian context that re-examines the predictive power of the previously discovered factors from a different perspective that highlights their relative nature.

Details

Journal of Financial Reporting and Accounting, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-2517

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 March 2023

Jasleen Kaur and Khushdeep Dharni

The stock market generates massive databases of various financial companies that are highly volatile and complex. To forecast daily stock values of these companies, investors…

Abstract

Purpose

The stock market generates massive databases of various financial companies that are highly volatile and complex. To forecast daily stock values of these companies, investors frequently use technical analysis or fundamental analysis. Data mining techniques coupled with fundamental and technical analysis types have the potential to give satisfactory results for stock market prediction. In the current paper, an effort is made to investigate the accuracy of stock market predictions by using the combined approach of variables from technical and fundamental analysis for the creation of a data mining predictive model.

Design/methodology/approach

We chose 381 companies from the National Stock Exchange of India's CNX 500 index and conducted a two-stage data analysis. The first stage is identifying key fundamental variables and constructing a portfolio based on that study. Artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machines (SVM) and decision tree J48 were used to build the models. The second stage entails applying technical analysis to forecast price movements in the companies included in the portfolios. ANN and SVM techniques were used to create predictive models for all companies in the portfolios. We also estimated returns using trading decisions based on the model's output and then compared them to buy-and-hold returns and the return of the NIFTY 50 index, which served as a benchmark.

Findings

The results show that the returns of both the portfolios are higher than the benchmark buy-and-hold strategy return. It can be concluded that data mining techniques give better results, irrespective of the type of stock, and have the ability to make up for poor stocks. The comparison of returns of portfolios with the return of NIFTY as a benchmark also indicates that both the portfolios are generating higher returns as compared to the return generated by NIFTY.

Originality/value

As stock prices are influenced by both technical and fundamental indicators, the current paper explored the combined effect of technical analysis and fundamental analysis variables for Indian stock market prediction. Further, the results obtained by individual analysis have also been compared. The proposed method under study can also be utilized to determine whether to hold stocks for the long or short term using trend-based research.

Article
Publication date: 21 December 2022

Hamzeh Hosseinpour, Ahmad Khodamipour and Omid Pourheidari

This study aims to investigate the relationship between return and liquidity risk and the impact of the prospect theory value (PTV) as a moderator variable on this relationship.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the relationship between return and liquidity risk and the impact of the prospect theory value (PTV) as a moderator variable on this relationship.

Design/methodology/approach

The statistical population of this study is the companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 2006–2019. In this research, the portfolio construction method and alpha analysis of the factor models and the cross-sectional regression of Fama and Macbeth have been used to analyze the data.

Findings

The results obtained through the portfolio construction method and the cross-sectional regression of Fama and Macbeth show that there is no significant relationship between return and Amihud (2002) criterion (ILLIQ) as liquidity risk. The PTV also does not affect this relationship, but there is a positive and significant relationship between returns and the turnover ratio (TOR) as liquidity risk. In other words, the lower the TOR (higher liquidity risk), the lower the return. On the other hand, the results showed that the PTV affects this relationship.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to examine the effect of the PTV on the relationship between return and liquidity risk. It is expected that the results of this study can help investors explain returns better through a deeper understanding of the behavior of investors and their decision-making methods. In other words, by examining the PTV as a proxy for behavioral dimension, we can understand that the relationship between return and liquidity risk can be affected by other dimensions like PTV, so when evaluating risk and return, other influential factors should also be considered.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 16 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 August 2022

Fatima Ruhani and Mohd Zukime Mat Junoh

This study aims to find the relationship of stock market returns and selected financial market variables (market capitalization, earnings per share, price-earnings multiples…

1077

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to find the relationship of stock market returns and selected financial market variables (market capitalization, earnings per share, price-earnings multiples, dividend yield and trading volume) of Malaysia grounded by the arbitrage pricing theories.

Design/methodology/approach

This study empirically examines the effects of selected financial market variables on stock market returns using 64 companies listed in Malaysia's stock market with data spanning from 2005 to 2018. A systematic empirical study based on the Generalized Method of Moments following Arellano and Bond (1991) has been taken to estimate the effect.

Findings

The regression result of the financial market variables and stock market return shows that, except for trading volume, all selected financial market variables play significant roles in the stock market returns. Furthermore, market capitalization, earnings per share, price-earnings ratio, dividend yield and trading volume have a positive impact on stock market returns.

Research limitations/implications

The outcome of this study can contribute by helping domestic and global investors devise strategies to minimize their risks. Also, policy administrators can use the outcomes of this study to inform the micro- and macro-level policy formulation.

Originality/value

This study will contribute to filling the gap in knowledge concerning the new release of factors affecting the stock market returns of Malaysia.

Details

International Journal of Ethics and Systems, vol. 39 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-9369

Keywords

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