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The aim of this paper is to provide a narrative review of previous research on tourism demand modelling and forecasting and potential future developments.

A narrative approach is taken in this review of the current body of knowledge.

Significant methodological advancements in tourism demand modelling and forecasting over the past two decades are identified.

The distinct characteristics of the various methods applied in the field are summarised and a research agenda for future investigations is proposed.

本文旨在对先前关于旅游需求建模和预测的研究进行叙述性回顾并对未来潜在发展进行展望。

本文采用叙述性回顾方法对当前知识体系进行了评论。

本文确认了过去二十年旅游需求建模和预测方法论方面的重要进展。

本文总结了该领域应用的各种方法的独特特征, 并对未来研究提出了建议。

El objetivo de este documento es ofrecer una revisión narrativa de la investigación previa sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros.

En esta revisión del marco actual de conocimientos sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros,se adopta un enfoque narrativo.

Se identifican avances metodológicos significativos en la modelización y previsión de la demanda turística en las dos últimas décadas.

Se resumen las características propias de los diversos métodos aplicados en este campo y se propone una agenda de investigación para futuros trabajos.

This article aims to investigate how institutional characteristics affect the level of financial development of economies collectively and compare between developed and undeveloped economies.

A dynamic panel with 131 countries, including developed and developing ones, was utilized; the estimators of the generalized method of moments system (GMM system) model were selected because they have econometric characteristics more suitable for analysis, providing superior statistical precision compared to traditional linear estimation methods.

The results from the full panel suggest that concrete and well-defined institutions are important for financial development, confirming previous research, with a more limited scope than the present work.

Limitations of this research include the availability of data for all countries worldwide, which would make the research broader and more complete.

A panel of countries was used, divided into developed and developing countries, to analyze the impact of institutional variables on the financial development of these countries, which is one of the differentiators of this work. Another differentiator of this research is the presentation of estimates in six different configurations, with emphasis on the GMM system model in one and two steps, allowing for comparison between results.

By studying the green development efficiency (GDE) of 33 cities in the provinces of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Fujian in China, this study strives to conduct an analysis of the sustainable practices implemented in these developed regions, and derive valuable insights that can foster the promotion of green transformation.

First, the urban green development system (GDS) was decomposed into the economic benefit subsystem (EBS), social benefit subsystem (SBS), and pollution control subsystem (PCS). Then, a mixed network SBM model was proposed to evaluate the GDE during 20152020, with Moran’s I and Bootstrap truncated regression model subsequently applied to measure the spatial characteristics and driving factors of efficiency.

Subsystem efficiency presents a distribution trend of PCS > EBS > SBS. There is a particular spatial aggregation effect in EBS efficiency, whereas SBS and PCS efficiencies have no significant spatial autocorrelation. Furthermore, urbanization level contributes significantly to the efficiency of all subsystems; industrial structure, energy consumption, and technological innovation play a crucial role in EBS and SBS; external openness is a pivotal factor in SBS; and environmental regulation has a significant effect on PCS.

This study further decomposes the black box of GDS into subsystems including the economy, society, and environment. Additionally, by employing a mixed network SBM model and Bootstrap truncated regression model to investigate efficiency and its driving factors from the subsystem perspective, it endeavors to derive more detailed research conclusions and policy implications.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of off-balance sheet activities on the credit risk of African banks.

The theory about the relationship between off-balance sheet activities and bank risk was used to construct a conceptual model of the effect of off-balance sheet on credit risk in an African context. The accounting approach is chosen by collecting accounting data extracted from the annual reports of 24 private and conventional African banks during the period 2010–2019. Both statistical and empirical studies are conducted. The statistical study aims to give a description of sample banks in terms of off-balance sheet activities and key financial indicators. The empirical study has the goal of exploring the correlations between, on the one hand, credit risk and, on the other hand, off-balance sheet ratio and control variables (bank- and country-specific variables). This study is based on dynamic panels using the two-step generalized method of moments technique to estimate regressions between credit risk and the explanatory variables.

The statistical study reveals that sample banks use moderately off-balance sheet activities; most of them use essentially guarantees and letters of credit, have satisfactory financial indicators and are slightly exposed to credit risk. The empirical results from the two-step generalized method of moments technique disclose that off-balance sheet activities have an intensifying effect on the credit risk of African banks. However, the increasing effect can be minimized when African banks use moderately off-balance sheet activities.

Using judiciously off-balance sheet activities does not exacerbate the exposure of African banks to credit risk. Therefore, managers of African banks are recommended to maintain a moderate level of off-balance sheet activities, especially guarantees and letters of credit.

The findings of this study eliminate the opacity about the effect of off-balance sheet activities on credit risk. Moreover, this study fulfills the huge gap in the related literature by completing the scarcity of recent studies, considering all items of the off-balance sheet, focusing on the African context, describing off-balance sheet activities and financial indicators of sample banks due to a statistical study and estimating regressions of dynamic panels between credit risk and both bank-specific and country-specific variables due to a two-step generalized method of moments technique.

This paper aims to explore the determinants of the level of minibonds issued by companies. In doing so, it discusses the importance of minibonds in providing a market-based funding source. In the empirical analysis, special attention is paid to the study of the recovery from the COVID-19 crisis.

The analysis is carried out through an econometric approach, on the basis of a high-quality empirical dataset related to the Italian small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The reference period covers the recent pandemic. From a theoretical point of view, a regression model is implemented, including a multicollinearity analysis and an outlier detection procedure.

The results of the study indicate that factors such as leverage, cash flow, firm collaterals and seniority can explain the amount of minibonds issued. These findings provide valuable insights into the drivers of minibond issuance and highlight the potential benefits of minibonds as a funding option for Italian SMEs.

Importantly, results highlight relevant managerial implications at two levels. On one side, we carry on a managerial discussion about the worthiness of accessing the minibonds market; on the other side, we give insights on the managerial implications related to the features of the companies issuing minibonds.

The paper investigates an innovative financial instrument that has been introduced recently and has not yet been studied in depth. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first contribution assessing the main drivers for minibonds issuance level, which is a timely and relevant managerial research topic. In addition, this study also takes into account the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on minibond issuance, making the analysis appropriate for explaining the current economic context.

By using a wide range of macro and micro factors, this paper aims to provide a new assessment of the recent literature on inbound tourism demand models.

This study examines the determinants and spatial effects of inbound tourism using Hausman–Taylor and spatial econometric models.

Several important factors were identified, including local economic growth, openness to the outside world, regional size, geographic distance, foreign direct investment, level of innovation and average annual temperature. In addition, the study found strong cross-city competition effects on tourism resource endowment and hotel infrastructure.

Inbound tourism is a crucial link in achieving high-quality economic development. However, previous studies have mainly focused on the analysis of single influencing factors, ignoring the spatial spillover effects of factors.

The accurate valuation of second-hand vessels has become a prominent subject of interest among investors, necessitating regular impairment tests. Previous literature has predominantly concentrated on inferring a vessel's price through parameter estimation but has overlooked the prediction accuracy. With the increasing adoption of machine learning for pricing physical assets, this paper aims to quantify potential factors in a non-parametric manner. Furthermore, it seeks to evaluate whether the devised method can serve as an efficient means of valuation.

This paper proposes a stacking ensemble approach with add-on feedforward neural networks, taking four tree-driven models as base learners. The proposed method is applied to a training dataset collected from public sources. Then, the performance is assessed on the test dataset and compared with a benchmark model, commonly used in previous studies.

The results on the test dataset indicate that the designed method not only outperforms base learners under statistical metrics but also surpasses the benchmark GAM in terms of accuracy. Notably, 73% of the testing points fall within the less-than-10% error range. The designed method can leverage the predictive power of base learners by incrementally adding a small amount of target value through residuals and harnessing feature engineering capability from neural networks.

This paper marks the pioneering use of the stacking ensemble in vessel pricing within the literature. The impressive performance positions it as an efficient desktop valuation tool for market users.

The paper aims to examine the digital economy's influence on China's regional innovation and development. It focuses on direct effects and spatial spillover across regions, and the mediating role of human capital. This analysis is vital for policy and strategic planning in the digital era.

This study uses panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2004–2019) and uses the entropy method to quantify the digital economy's development. It investigates its impact on regional innovation using a dynamic spatial Durbin model (SDM) and mediation effect model, assessing direct effects, spatial spillover and human capital's mediating role. Various control variables are included for comprehensive analysis.

Findings show the digital economy significantly boosts regional innovation, acting as a growth driver. However, impacts vary regionally, with the central region gaining more than the eastern and western areas. Spatial spillover effects are mixed, showing negative short-term and positive long-term impacts under different weight matrices. Human capital is crucial for fostering innovation through the digital economy.

The paper offers unique insights into the spatial dynamics of the digital economy's impact on regional innovation in China. It advances understanding of the digital economy's role in regional development using innovative methods like the entropy method and dynamic SDM. Highlighting human capital as a key mediating factor enriches discussions on digital economy strategies for regional innovation.

The purpose of this study involves analysing the factors of and barriers to innovation and their respective impacts (directly and indirectly) on the competitiveness of both destination and their host companies.

Based on primary data collected by questionnaire from a sample of 119 companies operating in the tourism sector in the autonomous region of Madeira (Portugal), the authors applied a quantitative methodology with recourse to econometric models and multiple linear regression.

Comprehensive results based on a conceptual model are obtained through the analysis of competitiveness tourism-based and innovation factors. The study identifies and empirically tests the existing and underlying relationships between innovation (factors and barriers) as the means of leveraging the competitiveness of destinations and their companies.

The results hold important theoretical and practical implications contributing towards innovation for competitiveness and filling a shortcoming identified in the literature.

This study aims to validate the link between production manipulation and a firm’s performance variability (fundamentals and stock returns). It explores whether executives' risk-taking incentives encourage production deviations around the normal level during uncertainty.

Utilizing panel data of manufacturing firms from Compustat over three decades, the study investigates production management practices during economic uncertainty. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) is employed as a key metric. The empirical strategy involves documenting the effect of economic uncertainty on overproduction and underproduction, examining the role of executive compensation and assessing the impact on risk.

The research finds that risk-taking incentives increase over/underproduction, particularly amplifying the extent of underproduction during uncertainty. Production deviation rises, indicating that firms take greater risk by engaging in abnormal business operations. The study’s results are robust against various econometric methods, emphasizing the influence of risk-taking incentives on corporate production decisions.

While providing valuable insights, the study acknowledges inherent limitations, including factors influencing production decisions beyond risk-taking incentives. Further research could explore additional determinants for a comprehensive understanding.

The findings highlight the potential dark side of executive compensation that motivates suboptimal risk-taking decisions, impacting risk, cost of capital and firm performance. Policymakers and compensation committees can use these insights to design efficient systems that mitigate moral hazard problems associated with productivity changes.

The study emphasizes the broader social implications of production manipulation under uncertainty. It prompts discussions on the ethical considerations of managerial opportunism, its potential consequences for stakeholders and market dynamics.

This study contributes to the literature by examining the role of economic uncertainty on production manipulation and the influence of risk-taking incentives. It extends the earnings management literature by considering real activity manipulation and emphasizing the importance of decomposing production deviation into positive and negative values.