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1 – 10 of over 1000Given the difficulties in finding significant exchange rate exposure in the extant literature, this paper attempts to resolve the so-called “exposure puzzle” by investigating…
Abstract
Purpose
Given the difficulties in finding significant exchange rate exposure in the extant literature, this paper attempts to resolve the so-called “exposure puzzle” by investigating whether currency movements have any significant impact on international industry returns.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper utilizes the multivariate Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) methodology to estimate both symmetric and asymmetric exchange rate exposures for each industry common across 12 countries simultaneously.
Findings
The empirical results show that exchange rate exposure is not only statistically significant but also economically important based on the estimation of an asymmetric three-factor exposure model using MGARCH methodology. This is an extremely important finding as it suggests that the “exposure puzzle” may not be a puzzle at all once a better methodology is utilized in the estimation.
Research limitations/implications
Because this study tries to resolve the exchange rate exposure puzzle by focusing on whether exchange rate movements affect ex-post returns as opposed to ex ante expected returns and given the significant exposures with respect to different risk factors found in the study, it is interesting to see if any of these risk factors commands a risk premium. In other words, a natural extension of this study is to test whether any of these risk factors is priced in international industry returns.
Practical implications
The findings of the study have interesting implications for international investors who would like to diversify their portfolios across different industries and are concerned about whether the unexpected movements in the bilateral exchange rates will affect their portfolio returns in addition to its interest rate and world market risk exposures.
Originality/value
The study utilizes the MGARCH methodology, which has not been fully exploited in the exchange rate exposure literature.
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This paper examines the reaction of the Egyptian stock market to two substantial devaluations of the Egyptian pound (EGP) in 2022 and tests the informational efficiency of the…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper examines the reaction of the Egyptian stock market to two substantial devaluations of the Egyptian pound (EGP) in 2022 and tests the informational efficiency of the Egyptian market.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses the event study framework to analyze the significance and direction of abnormal returns of the leading index of the Egyptian stock market (EGX30) on and around the devaluation days. It employs both the constant mean model and the market model to estimate the normal returns of the EGX30. Additionally, the paper uses data on two equity indices, one global and one for emerging markets, as benchmarks for normal returns.
Findings
The paper finds that the Egyptian stock market experienced significant positive abnormal returns on the devaluation days of the EGP in March and October of 2022, indicating a positive market reaction to the devaluation. Furthermore, evidence suggests that the Egyptian market may not be informationally efficient as significant positive abnormal returns were observed two weeks before and two weeks after the devaluation day, suggesting news leaks and delayed reactions, respectively.
Originality/value
This study is the first to examine the impact of the recent two devaluations of the EGP in 2022 on the Egyptian stock market. It complements existing literature by analyzing the immediate market reaction to two consecutive devaluations in an African country. Furthermore, the paper evaluates the efficiency of the Egyptian market in processing information related to exchange rates.
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Given the dearth of thorough summaries in the literature, this systematic review and bibliometric analysis attempt to take a meticulous approach meant to present knowledge on the…
Abstract
Purpose
Given the dearth of thorough summaries in the literature, this systematic review and bibliometric analysis attempt to take a meticulous approach meant to present knowledge on the constantly developing subject of stock market volatility during crises. In outline, this study aims to map the extant literature available on stock market volatility during crisis periods.
Design/methodology/approach
The present study reviews 1,283 journal articles from the Scopus database published between 1994 and 2022, using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) 2020 flow diagram. Bibliometric analysis through software like R studio and VOSviewer has been performed, that is, annual publication trend analysis, journal analysis, citation analysis, author influence analysis, analysis of affiliations, analysis of countries and regions, keyword analysis, thematic mapping, co-occurrence analysis, bibliographic coupling, co-citation analysis, Bradford’s law and Lotka’s law, to map the existing literature and identify the gaps.
Findings
The literature on the effects of crises on volatility in financial markets has grown in recent years. It was discovered that volatility intensified during crises. This increased volatility can be linked to COVID-19 and the global financial crisis of 2008, as both had massive effects on the world economy. Moreover, we identify specific patterns and factors contributing to increased volatility, providing valuable insights for further research and decision-making.
Research limitations/implications
The present study is confined to the areas of economics, econometrics and finance, business, management and accounting and social sciences. Future studies could be conducted considering a broader perspective.
Originality/value
Most of the available literature has focused on the impact of some particular crises on the volatility of financial markets. The present study is not limited to some specific crises, and the suggested research directions will serve as a guide for future research.
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Nadia Yusuf, Inass Salamah Ali and Tariq Zubair
This study investigates the impact of US dollar volatility and oil rents on the performance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC…
Abstract
Purpose
This study investigates the impact of US dollar volatility and oil rents on the performance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, with an emphasis on understanding how these factors influence SME financing constraints in economies with fixed currency regimes.
Design/methodology/approach
Employing a random effects panel regression analysis, this research considers US dollar volatility and oil rents as independent variables, with SME performance, measured through the financing gap, as the dependent variable. Controls such as trade balance, inflation deltas and gross domestic product (GDP) growth are included to isolate their effects on SME financing constraints.
Findings
The study reveals a significant positive relationship between dollar volatility and the financing gap, suggesting that increased volatility can exacerbate SME financing constraints. Conversely, oil rents did not show a significant direct influence on SME performance. The trade balance and inflation deltas were found to have significant effects, highlighting the multifaceted nature of economic variables affecting SMEs.
Research limitations/implications
The study acknowledges potential biases due to omitted variables and the limitations inherent in the use of secondary data.
Practical implications
Findings offer pertinent guidance for SMEs and policymakers in the GCC region seeking to develop strategies that mitigate the impact of currency volatility and support SME financing.
Originality/value
The research provides new insights into the dynamics of SME performance within fixed currency regimes, which significantly contributes to the limited literature in this area. The paper further underscores the complex connections between global economic factors and SME financial health.
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Maria I. Kyriakou, Athanasios Koulakiotis and Vassilios Babalos
The purpose of this study is to examine within a unified framework the timeliness and conservatism of accounting disclosure accommodating the transmission of news among the…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to examine within a unified framework the timeliness and conservatism of accounting disclosure accommodating the transmission of news among the Scandinavian stock markets.
Design/methodology/approach
To this end the authors have used an augmented ordinary least squares (OLS) approach and univariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic and vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling. The sample covers the period from 1987 to 2020, totaling 1452 observations. The sample was collected from the datastream database.
Findings
The empirical results of this study are consistent with previous findings and provide evidence that accounting reporting is timely and conservative while news is transmitted amongst the Scandinavian stock markets.
Practical implications
The findings could be important for investors, firms and regulators since failure of considering information that is derived from more advanced approaches could result in lower quality of annual reports of companies.
Originality/value
The authors examined the relationship between earnings yield and conditional risk using an augmented OLS model and the transmission of news among Scandinavian stock markets using a VAR model.
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Mohamed Malek Belhoula, Walid Mensi and Kamel Naoui
This paper examines the time-varying efficiency of nine major Middle East and North Africa (MENA) stock markets namely Egypt, Bahrain, UAE, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper examines the time-varying efficiency of nine major Middle East and North Africa (MENA) stock markets namely Egypt, Bahrain, UAE, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Morocco and Tunisia during times of COVID-19 pandemic outbreak and vaccines.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use two econometric approaches: (1) autocorrelation tests including the wild bootstrap automatic variance ratio test, the automatic portmanteau test and the Generalized spectral test, and (2) a non-Bayesian generalized least squares-based time-varying model with statistical inferences.
Findings
The results show that the degree of stock market efficiency of Egyptian, Bahraini, Saudi, Moroccan and Tunisian stock markets is influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Furthermore, the authors find a tendency toward efficiency in most of the MENA markets after the announcement of the COVID-19's vaccine approval. Finally, the Jordanian, Omani, Qatari and UAE stock markets remain globally efficient during the three sub-periods of the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak.
Originality/value
The results have important implications for asset allocations and financial risk management. Portfolio managers may maximize the benefit of arbitrage opportunities by taking strategic long and short positions in these markets during downward trend periods. Policymakers should implement the action plans and reforms to protect the stock markets from global shocks and ensure the stability of the stock markets.
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Deevarshan Naidoo, Peter Brian Denton Moores-Pitt and Joseph Olorunfemi Akande
Understanding which market to invest in for a well-diversified portfolio is fundamental in economies that are highly vulnerable to fluctuations in exchange rates. Extant…
Abstract
Purpose
Understanding which market to invest in for a well-diversified portfolio is fundamental in economies that are highly vulnerable to fluctuations in exchange rates. Extant literature that has considered phenomenon hardly juxtapose the markets. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of exchange rate volatility on the Stock and Real Estate market of South Africa. The essence is to determine whether the fluctuations in the exchange rate influence the markets prices differently.
Design/methodology/approach
The Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity [GARCH (1.1)] model was used in establishing the effect of exchange rate volatility on both markets. This study used monthly South African data between 2000 and 2020.
Findings
The results of this study showed that increased exchange rate volatility increases stock market volatility but decreases real-estate market volatility, both of which revealed weak influences from the exchange rates volatility.
Practical implications
This study has implication for policy in using the exchange rate as a policy tool to attract foreign portfolio investment. The weak volatility transmission from the exchange rate market to the stock and real estate market indicates that there is prospect for foreign investors to diversify their investments in these two markets.
Originality/value
This study investigated which of the assets market, stock or housing market do better in volatile exchange rate conditions in South Africa.
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Robert Owusu Boakye, Lord Mensah, Sanghoon Kang and Kofi Osei
The study measures the total systemic risks and connectedness across commodities, stocks, exchange rates and bond markets in Africa during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Abstract
Purpose
The study measures the total systemic risks and connectedness across commodities, stocks, exchange rates and bond markets in Africa during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses the Diebold-Yilmaz spillover and connectedness measures in a generalized VAR framework. The author calculates the net transmitters or receivers of shocks between two assets and visualizes their strength using a network analysis tool.
Findings
The study found low systemic risks across all assets and countries. However, we found higher systemic risks in the forex market than in the stock and bond markets, and in South Africa than in other countries. The dynamic analysis found time-varying connectedness return shocks, which increased during the peak periods of the first and second waves of the pandemic. We found both gold and oil as net receivers of shocks. Overall, over half of all assets were net receivers, and others were net transmitters of return shocks. The network connectedness plot shows high net pairwise connectedness from Morocco to South Africa stock market.
Practical implications
The study has implications for policymakers to develop the capacities of local investors and markets to limit portfolio outflows during a crisis.
Originality/value
Previous studies have analyzed spillovers across asset classes in a single country or a single asset across countries. This paper contributes to the literature on network connectedness across assets and countries.
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Siti Nurhidayah Mohd Roslen, Mei-Shan Chua and Rafiatul Adlin Hj Mohd Ruslan
The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the asymmetric effects of financial risk on Sukuk market development for a sample of Malaysian countries over the period of…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the asymmetric effects of financial risk on Sukuk market development for a sample of Malaysian countries over the period of 2010–2021.
Design/methodology/approach
This study refers to the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) in determining the financial risk factors to be studied in addition to the Malaysia financial stress index (FSI) to capture changes in financial risk level. The authors use the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to tackle the nonlinear relationships between identified financial risk variables and Sukuk market development.
Findings
The results suggest the existence of a long-run relationship between foreign debt service stability, international liquidity stability (ILS), exchange rate stability (ERS) and financial stress level with the Sukuk market development in Malaysia. Indeed, higher ILS and ERS will boost Sukuk market size, whereas higher foreign debt services and financial stress are negatively related to Sukuk market development. Findings also indicate that the long-run positive and negative impacts of identified financial risk components on Sukuk market development are statistically different. Taking into account the role of the Sukuk market in facilitating Malaysia’s economic growth, the country should aim to keep the foreign debt-to-GDP ratio at a sustainable level.
Research limitations/implications
This study points to three possible directions for future research. The first is the differential impact of financial risk components on Sukuk issuance for different Sukuk structures. As more data becomes available in the future, this area could be further explored by conducting the above analysis for different combinations of Sukuk structures and currency denominations. In addition, future researchers could also consider exploring the variability of financial risk impacts through comparative studies of the leading Sukuk-issuing countries to account for differences in regulatory frameworks and supporting infrastructure.
Practical implications
This study provides valuable practical and policy implications for strengthening the growth of the Sukuk market. While benefiting from the diversification benefits of funding sources to finance private or government projects and developments, Malaysia should remain vigilant to global economic conditions, foreign exchange markets and financial stress levels, as all of these factors may significantly influence investor sentiment and the rate of return offered by Sukuk issuance.
Originality/value
The use of the NARDL approach, which investigates the long-run effects of financial risk factors on Sukuk market development in Malaysia, makes this study a valuable addition to the literature, as there has been little research into the asymmetric effects of those variables on Sukuk market development using samples from emerging Asian markets.
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Niharika Mehta, Seema Gupta and Shipra Maitra
Foreign direct investment in the real estate (FDIRE) sector is required to bridge the gap between investment needed and domestic funds. Further, foreign direct investment is…
Abstract
Purpose
Foreign direct investment in the real estate (FDIRE) sector is required to bridge the gap between investment needed and domestic funds. Further, foreign direct investment is gaining importance because other sources of raising finance such as External Commercial Borrowing and foreign currency convertible bonds have been banned in the Indian real estate sector. Therefore, the objective of the study is to explore the determinants attracting foreign direct investment in real estate and to assess the impact of those variables on foreign direct investments in real estate.
Design/methodology/approach
Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model along with variance decomposition and impulse response function are employed to understand the nexus of the relationship between various macroeconomic variables and foreign direct investment in real estate.
Findings
The results indicate that infrastructure, GDP and tourism act as drivers of foreign direct investment in real estate. However, interest rates act as a barrier.
Originality/value
This article aimed at exploring factors attracting FDIRE along with estimating the impact of identified variables on FDI in real estate. Unlike other studies, this study considers FDI in real estate instead of foreign real estate investments.
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