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The objective of this chapter is to analyse the performance of the UiPath (PATH) company on the New York Stock Exchange, in the context of the war between Russia and Ukraine, and to predict the closing price of the PATH stock using autoregressive integrated moving average with (ARIMAX) and without (ARIMA) exogenous variable methods and autoregressive neural networks (NNAR, NNARX).

UiPath has gained a significant reputation in the IT market and has become a point of interest in recent years. However, the current context is marked by an event of international impact, the war between Russia and Ukraine. In this context, this analysis will consider performance from two perspectives: forecasts of the closing price and forecasts of the closing price with an exogenous variable, namely the war between Russia and Ukraine.

In the analysis that follows, we will address a forecast of the stock closing price using ARIMA, ARIMAX, NNAR and NNARX, as well as analysis of changing points and structural breaks of the series.

The changing points in the mean and variance but also the breaks in the structure justify the course of the closing price. From the information extracted in the analysis, it can be concluded that market sentiment is currently pessimistic due to the downward trend in the price. Both the public and the shareholders are disappointed with the performance of PATH stock and are waiting for the next change point that will change the trend of the series.

Purpose: This chapter examines the effect of COVID-19 on the stock market volatility (SMV) in the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE), Sri Lanka.

Need for the Study: The study is necessary to understand investor behaviour, market efficiency, and risk management strategies during a global crisis.

Methodology: Utilising daily All Share Price Index (ASPI) data from 2 January 2018 to 31 August 2021, the data are divided into subsamples corresponding to the pre-pandemic period, the pandemic period, and distinct waves of the pandemic. The impact of the pandemic is investigated using the Mann–Whitney U test, the Kruskal–Wallis test, and the Exponential Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model.

Findings: The pandemic considerably affected CSE – the Mann–Whitney U test produced different market returns during the pre-COVID and COVID eras. The Kruskal–Wallis test improved performance during COVID-19 but did not continue to do so across COVID-19 waves. The EGARCH model detected increased volatility and risk during the first wave, but the second and third waves outperformed the first. COVID-19 had a minimal overall effect on CSE market results. GARCH and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) models identified long-term variance memory and volatility clustering. The News Impact Curve (NIC) showed that negative news had a more significant impact on market return volatility than positive news, even if the asymmetric term was not statistically significant.

Practical Implications: This study offers significant insight into how Sri Lanka’s SMV is affected by COVID-19. The findings help create efficient mitigation strategies to mitigate the negative consequences of future events.

Purpose: This study investigates internal/own shock in the domestic market and three external volatility spillovers from India, the UK, and the USA to the Sri Lanka stock market.

Need for the Study: The external market’s internal/own shocks and volatility spillovers influence portfolio choices in domestic stock market returns. Hence, it is required to investigate the internal shock in the domestic market and the external volatility spillovers from other countries.

Methodology: This study employs a quantitative method using ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model. All Share Price Index (ASPI) is the proxy for the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) stock return. It uses daily time-series data from 1^st April 2010 to 21^st June 2023.

Findings: The findings revealed that internal/own and external shocks substantially impact the stock price volatility in CSE. Significant volatility clusters and persistence with extended memory in ASPI confirm internal/own shock in the market. Furthermore, CSE receives significant volatility shock from the USA, confirming external shock. This study’s findings highlight the importance of considering internal and external shocks in portfolio decision-making.

Practical Implications: Understanding the influence of internal shocks helps investors manage their portfolios and adapt to market volatility. Recognising significant volatility spillovers from external markets, especially the USA, informs diversification strategies. From a policy standpoint, the study emphasises the need for robust regulations and risk management measures to address shocks in domestic and global markets. This study adds value to the literature by assessing the sources of volatility shocks in the CSE, employing the ARMA-GARCH, a sophisticated econometrics model, to capture stock returns volatility, enhancing understanding of the CSE’s volatility dynamics.

This chapter examines the influence of external public borrowing resources on economic progress in Tunisia. The study focuses on two stages: First, the influence is studied in a direct sense and then in an indirect sense, i.e., through a transmission channel of this influence. By applying the autoregressive distributed technique with staggered lags (ARDL), over a period ranging from 1986 to 2019, the results showed that the influence of external borrowing resources on growth seems to be unfavorable in the short term but positive in the long term, hence the importance of the empirical technique chosen. Second, three interaction variables were tested, namely total government expenditure, government investment expenditure, and the real effective exchange rate. The results obtained call for better attention to the channels identified to maximize the positive influence of external public debt on the country's economic progress.

By examining the impact of the day of the week during the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent economic recession, it is possible to provide insights into market behaviour during volatile times that can be furnished to investors and policymakers for informed decisions.

This study investigates the day-of-the-week effect on the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE), with particular emphasis on the variations in this effect during the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent economic crisis.

The study applies the Exponential Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model, allowing for the evaluation of asymmetric responses to positive and negative shocks. The data span from January 2006 to December 2022 and are segmented into different periods: the entire sample, war and post-war periods, the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic crisis period, each reflecting distinct market conditions.

The study uncovers a significant day-of-the-week effect on the CSE. Mondays and Tuesdays typically show a negative effect, while Thursdays and Fridays display a positive impact. However, this pattern shifts notably during the COVID-19 pandemic, with all weekdays exhibiting significant positive impact, and varies further across different waves of the pandemic. The economic crisis period also shows unique weekday effects, particularly before and after an important political event.

Introduction: India has the 15th-largest domestic natural gas consumption (NGC), critical to sustainable economic growth. Promoting natural gas will have a crucial impact on production in all industries.

Purpose: This research gives an overview of NGC and gross domestic product (GDP) in India from 1990 to 2021 and investigates the association and nature of causality between NGC and GDP in India.

Methodology: For the years 1990 through 2021, we used annual statistics from the NGC and the GDP of India. Both research variables data have been taken from the World Bank Indicator.

Findings: There is no causality and correlation between natural gas and GDP in India.

Practical Implications: Based on the research, the Government of India can create different policies for substituting natural gas for other energy sources to have a healthier impact on a sustainable environment in the short and long term. In the future, researchers can work on environmental degradation and GDP.

The study is called for to eliminate the noise between the significant macro variables from the perspective of the cause-and-effect approach to indicate why and how the return of solar projects is being affected by these.

The study aims to investigate the spread between unit selling electricity prices of a monthly production of 250 KW solar project installed in Türkiye and USD/TRY.

A relational framework is designed by drawing on the variables determined as crude oil prices, United States (US) 2-year yield, Dollar Index (DXY), USD/TRY, the annual inflation rate of Türkiye, and unit selling electricity prices. Then, a multivariate approach is performed through Matlab to analyse the correlational relationships and structure the curve estimation models.

The observations show that the gradually rising spread between unit selling electricity price and USD/TRY signals the reduction in return-on-investment rate of solar energy projects because of the particular causes of the European energy crisis by the reason of Russia and Ukraine war and escalating risks in DXY and US treasury yields as a result of federal fund rate hikes against inflationary pressures. Solar energy investments are delicate instruments to global oil shocks and higher DXY in controlling Inflation and currency volatility; therefore, resilient policies should solicit the demand because of environmental and economic reasons to reduce the external dependency of Türkiye.