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Syrian-Lebanese food shortages will drive instability

Location:

SYRIA/LEBANON

While Lebanon is experiencing what the World Bank dubbed “the worst economic crisis in more than a century”, civil war-torn Syria has been hit by one of the most severe droughts…

Ethiopia poll will not deliver legitimacy or stability

Location:

ETHIOPIA

Even with a delay, insecurity, logistical challenges and electoral boycotts look likely to deny millions of Ethiopians a genuine democratic choice, and thus a credible electoral…

South Sudan’s government will hinder aid efforts

Location:

SOUTH SUDAN

South Sudan’s civil war is now in its fourth year, during which the intensity and extent of fighting has fluctuated. Despite the notional maintenance of the August 2015 peace…

Climate change could intensify Sahel conflicts

Location:

SAHEL

It will increase rainfall variability and extreme events such as droughts and floods, as well as raising temperatures. These effects may trigger cascading risks to economic…

South Sudan's multiple conflicts will not subside

Location:

SOUTH SUDAN

South Sudan is facing severe conflict and insecurity, a prolonged political crisis, and dire economic conditions. A peace agreement signed in August 2015 is falling apart, and…

Sudan's civil war will grind on

Location:

SUDAN

Thousands of combatants and civilians have been killed, over 8 million people (around one-fifth of the population) have been displaced and 18 million face severe acute food…

Myanmar opposition cannot defeat regime militarily

Location:

MYANMAR

The NUG announced the formation of a People’s Defence Force (PDF) in May. It urges PDF combatants and ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) embroiled in long-running conflicts with…

Water scarcity will boost Turkey-Syria-Iraq tensions

Location:

IRAQ/SYRIA/TURKEY

Large-scale water capture in Turkish dams upstream has caused long-term shortages elsewhere in the Tigris and Euphrates river basin, notably eastern Syria and southern Iraq…

South Sudan peace deal faces legitimacy gap

Location:

SOUTH SUDAN

Although the ‘transition’ foreseen under that agreement was intended to end with national elections in 2022, the signatories recently agreed to extend the transition by two years…

Colombian economy set for recovery in 2018

Location:

COLOMBIA

Colombia economic update.