Water scarcity will boost Turkey-Syria-Iraq tensions

Significance

Large-scale water capture in Turkish dams upstream has caused long-term shortages elsewhere in the Tigris and Euphrates river basin, notably eastern Syria and southern Iraq. Competition for water resources intersects with existing ethno-religious tensions across the riparian countries.

Impacts

• The political fragility of the Syrian and Iraqi states will be exacerbated by rising conflict over scarce water resources.
• Iran may seek to intervene on behalf of Shia Arabs in the Iraqi south.
• Turkey may experience future internal conflict with the Kurdish minority on whose land new dams have been constructed.
• Regional water scarcity could drive further migration to Europe.