South Sudan's multiple conflicts will not subside

Significance

South Sudan is facing severe conflict and insecurity, a prolonged political crisis, and dire economic conditions. A peace agreement signed in August 2015 is falling apart, and fighting and violence during the past year has caused the number of South Sudanese refugees in Uganda to rise to 900,000 -- with a further 375,000 in Sudan and 287,000 in Ethiopia. Earlier this year, aid agencies declared a famine situation in several counties, and appealed for more humanitarian aid and improved access.

Impacts

• Oil output is likely to remain at, or near, 130,000-160,000 barrels per day.
• Juba’s fiscal situation will remain precarious, with the government unable to secure loans from donors.
• Unrest and limited strikes over salary arrears could increase.