South Sudan’s civil war is now in its fourth year, during which the intensity and extent of fighting has fluctuated. Despite the notional maintenance of the August 2015 peace agreement, security has deteriorated in the past year. The spread of violence has produced waves of displacement, with hundreds of thousands of South Sudanese fleeing to Uganda.
- The government’s fiscal position will not improve in the near term.
- Army units, as well as pro- and anti-government militias, will continue to be predatory towards aid.
- International assistance for South Sudan will overwhelmingly centre on humanitarian activities rather than longer-term development.