Ethiopia poll will not deliver legitimacy or stability

Significance

Even with a delay, insecurity, logistical challenges and electoral boycotts look likely to deny millions of Ethiopians a genuine democratic choice, and thus a credible electoral process.

Impacts

• An early and strong rainy season will exacerbate the logistical challenges, especially in the case of a longer delay.
• Insecurity and political tensions could undermine dissemination of agricultural inputs at a key farming time, aggravating food insecurity.
• Insecurity could also undercut inflows of investments necessary to kickstart the post-COVID economic recovery.