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Article
Publication date: 23 January 2023

Bekithemba Mpofu, Cletus Moobela and Prisca Simbanegavi

This research aims to ascertain the extent to which the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic affected the relationship between inflation and real estate investment trusts…

Abstract

Purpose

This research aims to ascertain the extent to which the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic affected the relationship between inflation and real estate investment trusts (REITs) returns in South Africa.

Design/methodology/approach

This research used the Johansen cointegration test and effective test in establishing if there is a long-run cointegrating equation between the variables. To ascertain if COVID-19 resulted in a different relationship regime between inflation and REITs returns, the sequential Bai–Perron method was used.

Findings

Between December 2013 and July 2022, there was no evidence of a long-run relationship between inflation and REITs returns, and a restricted vector autoregressive (VAR) model with a period lag for each variable best describing the relationship. Using the sequential Bai–Perron method, for one break, the results show February 2020 as a structural break in the relationship. A cointegrating equation is also found for the period before the structural break and another after the break. Interestingly, the relationship is negative before the break and a new positive relationship (regime) is confirmed after the noted break.

Practical implications

This research helps REITs stakeholders to position themselves in light of any changes to macroeconomic activity within South Africa.

Originality/value

This is one of the first studies to test inflation relationship with REITs returns in South Africa and the effects of COVID-19 thereof. This research helps REITs stakeholders to position themselves in light of any changes to macroeconomic activity within South Africa.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 41 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 January 2021

Rafiq Ahmed, Syed Tehseen Jawaid and Samina Khalil

Housing prices have been increasing tremendously in Pakistan, there should be many reasons but the haphazard urbanization and rapidly growing population. To find out the causes of…

Abstract

Purpose

Housing prices have been increasing tremendously in Pakistan, there should be many reasons but the haphazard urbanization and rapidly growing population. To find out the causes of this price rise, this study aims to assess the impact of the foreign capital inflow and some domestic factors on housing prices.

Design/methodology/approach

To get the benefits of high-frequency data, it has been converted into a monthly, quarterly and yearly basis. The unit root is performed to see the stationarity, Johansen test is used for cointegration and coefficients are obtained through the ordinary least squares technique. The robustness of the results is checked with dynamic ordinary least squares and the Chow breakpoint test is used to detect structural breaks.

Findings

The housing prices have increased over time; this has been reflected in all the data sets under observation. The country has observed a rapid growth in population and urbanization that has badly affected almost every activity of city life. The impact of foreign capital inflow is positive on the house price appreciation. There is a dire need to divert such foreign funds in the housing sector so that it cannot create an artificial price hike. The government should regularly publish a housing policy for the guidance of investors and the public at large. Also, public authorities should provide housing finance facility.

Originality/value

This is a novel work to the best of the authors’ knowledge because no one has studied the impact of foreign capital inflow on the housing market for the economy of Pakistan. Furthermore, this study is different in the sense that it has disaggregated annual data into a monthly and quarterly basis to get the benefits of high-frequency data.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 14 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 23 April 2005

Abstract

Details

Modelling the Riskiness in Country Risk Ratings
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44451-837-8

Book part
Publication date: 1 January 2005

Jose A. Lopez

Foreign exchange rates are examined using cointegration tests over various time periods linked to regime shifts in central bank behavior. The number of cointegrating vectors…

Abstract

Foreign exchange rates are examined using cointegration tests over various time periods linked to regime shifts in central bank behavior. The number of cointegrating vectors appears to vary across these regime changes within the foreign exchange market. For example, cointegration is not generally found prior to the Plaza Agreement of September 22, 1985, but it is present after that date. The significance of these changes is evaluated using a likelihood ratio procedure proposed by Quintos (1994). The changing nature of the cointegrating relationships indicate that certain aspects of central bank activity do have long-term effects on exchange rates.

Details

Research in Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-76231-277-1

Article
Publication date: 9 September 2011

Yang Fan and Teng Jianzhou

This paper aims to study the monetary transmission mechanism of China from January 1996 to December 2009 under endogenous structural breaks.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to study the monetary transmission mechanism of China from January 1996 to December 2009 under endogenous structural breaks.

Design/methodology/approach

The study constructs a benchmark VAR model and then adds the proxy variables for four channels of monetary policy transmission as endogenous or exogenous variables in the model to study the transmission mechanism in China. Considering a number of reforms carried out in the economic and financial field in the past two decades and the possibility of structural changes in the monetary transmission mechanism, the methodology proposed by Qu and Perron is employed to allow for endogenous structural changes in the model.

Findings

By conducting a comparative analysis, conclusions can be drawn from this paper that bank lending is always the dominating channel for monetary policy to influence economy in China and the roles of the interest rate channel and the exchange rate channel have been improved in recent years. However, the role of the asset price channel in monetary policy transmission has weakened since late 2001.

Originality/value

This paper combines the quasi‐maximum likelihood procedure proposed by Qu and Perron in 2007 with a benchmark VAR model, thus providing a new approach to study monetary transmission mechanism and the conclusions can be more sensible.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 1 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 27 June 2020

Maria Mora Rodríguez, Francisco Flores Muñoz and Diego Valentinetti

The purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of recent developments in corporate reporting, specifically from the carbon disclosure project (CDP) environment, in the…

1648

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of recent developments in corporate reporting, specifically from the carbon disclosure project (CDP) environment, in the evolution of European post-crisis financial markets.

Design/methodology/approach

Theoretical and instrumental advancements from nonlinear dynamics have been applied to the analysis of market behaviour and the online presence or reputation of major European listed banks.

Findings

The application of a nonlinear statistical methodology (i.e. the autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average [ARFIMA] estimation model) demonstrates the presence of a long history of collected data, thus indicating a certain degree of predictability in the time series. Also, this study confirms the existence of structural breakpoints, specifically the impact of the CDP reporting in both stock prices and online search trends of the sampled companies for certain periods.

Research limitations/implications

This study introduces new methodological perspectives in corporate reporting studies, as the application of nonlinear techniques can be more effective in capturing corporate transparency issues. A limitation to overcome is to explore whether the impact of reporting is different due to the specific reporting behaviour each company adopts.

Practical implications

The “breakpoint” concept should enlighten the importance to firms of providing more information in specific moments, which can impact on both traditional (i.e. stock prices) and modern (i.e. online popularity) performance metrics. Additionally, it should be taken into account by stakeholders, when analysing the accountability of firms to improve their decision-making processes and policymakers, for monitoring and contrasting speculative and insider trading activities.

Social implications

Online search trends represent a new public attitude to how society “measures” the effectiveness of firms’ disclosure behaviours.

Originality/value

Combining ARFIMA with structural break techniques can be regarded as a relevant and complementary addition to classic “market reaction” or “value relevance” techniques.

Details

Journal of Financial Reporting and Accounting, vol. 19 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-2517

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 13 December 2022

Animesh Bhattacharjee and Joy Das

The present study examines the long-run and short-run effects of monetary factors (money supply, interest rate, inflation and foreign currency exchange rate) on the Indian stock…

1806

Abstract

Purpose

The present study examines the long-run and short-run effects of monetary factors (money supply, interest rate, inflation and foreign currency exchange rate) on the Indian stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

The study used sophisticated econometric tools to analyse monthly observations from January 1993 to December 2019.

Findings

The augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test indicates that the variables involved in the present study are either I(0) or I(1). The Bai–Perron test multiple break point test identifies four breakpoint dates in the Indian stock market index series. The breakpoint dates are incorporated as different dummy variables in the autoregressive distributed lag-error correction model (ARDL-ECM) regression. The F-bounds test reveals that the variables in the study are cointegrated within the time period under consideration. This study’s findings show that the interest rate, which is a proxy for monetary policy instrument, and the foreign currency exchange rate have a negative impact on the Indian stock market. Furthermore, the authors find that structural changes significantly affect the performance of Indian stock market.

Practical implications

The study's outcomes indicate that economic factors should be taken into account by investors and portfolio managers when formulating long-term investment strategies. The government, through the Reserve Bank of India, should exercise caution in avoiding discretionary actions that could increase interest rates since the flow of funds to the stock market will be disrupted. To reduce risk, investors should keep a close eye on how interest rates and foreign exchange rates are rising.

Originality/value

The study covers a long period of time, which the majority of previous work did not consider. Furthermore, the study uses different dummy variables in the ARDL model to represent structural breaks (as determined by the Bai–Perron multiple break point test).

Details

IIM Ranchi journal of management studies, vol. 2 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2754-0138

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 26 September 2022

James Nolan and Zoe Laulederkind

“Cargo tariffs are agreed through the IATA machinery, and in theory approved by governments….the IATA Tarff Coordination Conferences still agree cargo tariffs on over 200,000…

Abstract

“Cargo tariffs are agreed through the IATA machinery, and in theory approved by governments….the IATA Tarff Coordination Conferences still agree cargo tariffs on over 200,000 separate routes. But these tariffs bear little relevance to what is actually charged in the marketplace.” (Doganis, 2002)

“The stipulations ICAO standards contain never supersede the primacy of national regulatory requirements. It is always the local, national regulations which are enforced in, and by, sovereign states, and which must be legally adhered to by air operators making use of applicable airspace and airports……ICAO is therefore not an international aviation regulator, just as INTERPOL is not an international police force. We cannot arbitrarily close or restrict a country's airspace, shut down routes, or condemn airports or airlines for poor safety performance or customer service. Should a country transgress a given international standard adopted through our organization, ICAO's function in such circumstances…….is to help countries conduct any discussions, condemnations, sanctions, etc., they may wish to pursue, consistent with the Chicago Convention and the Articles and Annexes it contains under international law.” (ICAO, 2021)

In spite of being a growing liberalized global industry served by many firms, much of the international air cargo sector operated as an admitted cartel from 1999 through 2006. Partly due to the way the cartel was discovered, it seems very little empirical analysis to date has been done about the case. We use publicly available airline data to examine whether a diligent antitrust authority could have identified cartel/collusive behavior using established empirical methods. Our findings point to a regulatory failure in an industry whose long-standing business practices effectively “slipped through the cracks,” failing to protect the many shippers of air cargo.

Details

The International Air Cargo Industry
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83909-211-4

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 31 October 2008

Duc Khuong Nguyen and Mondher Bellalah

This paper aims to empirically reexamine the dynamic changes in emerging market volatility around stock market liberalization.

1622

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to empirically reexamine the dynamic changes in emerging market volatility around stock market liberalization.

Design/methodology/approach

First, a bivariate GARCH‐M model which counts for partial market integration is developed for modeling stock market volatility in emerging market countries. Second, the Bai and Perron stability test in a linear framework and a pooled time‐series cross‐section model were employed to examine the empirical relationship between stock market liberalization and volatility.

Findings

Structural breaks detected in emerging market volatility series did not take place at the time of official liberalization dates, but they rather coincide with alternative events of liberalization process. The effects of official liberalization on return volatility are on average insignificant. The stock return volatility is however lowered when the participation of the US investors becomes effective and important on emerging markets, and when emerging markets increase in size.

Research limitations/implications

The study assumes a static degree of market integration. Future research should extend our model by using a time‐varying measure of market integration.

Practical implications

Policymakers in frontier markets should open up local stock markets to attract foreign investments and to allow local firms to benefit from international risk sharing. Also, the gradual embankment of market‐liberalization is necessary to gain investors' confidence and to prevent the harmful effects of foreign capital flows.

Originality/value

The consideration of alternative events of liberalization process and the use of a powerful stability test to examine the time‐series properties of conditional volatilities.

Details

Review of Accounting and Finance, vol. 7 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1475-7702

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 9 March 2021

Debabrata Mukhopadhyay and Dipankar Das

This study intends to explore the impact of World Trade Organization (WTO) which came into existence from January 1, 1995, on the export share of developing counties in the world…

Abstract

This study intends to explore the impact of World Trade Organization (WTO) which came into existence from January 1, 1995, on the export share of developing counties in the world exports of all goods together in US$, that is, in global merchandise trade. This study endogenously determines the structural break in changing export share of developing countries and how are they related to the major changes in the multilateral trading systems of international trade, in particular, the introduction of the WTO by following a multiple breakpoint analysis due to Bai–­Perron. In this context, it would be worthwhile to note that the shift toward more export-oriented strategies by a large number of developing countries has accelerated the growth of LDC exports. This study also compares the changing share of merchandise exports and trade in commercial ­services for developing countries and the LDCs in the Post-WTO regime. The ­authors follow a univariate time-series exploratory analysis to understand the trend in world export shares of all goods and commercial services for different regions of the developing world and demonstrate the potential of these regions in the expansion of trade. The study, while evaluating the impact of WTO in changing export share in terms of structural change analysis, enables us to understand the role tariff cut in the developed countries on the imports from developing countries. This study also observes increasing inequality in terms of export share among different regions of the developing world.

Details

Global Tariff War: Economic, Political and Social Implications
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80071-314-7

Keywords

1 – 10 of 537